OPTION-BASED PRICING AND DEVIATIONS FROM ABSOLUTE PRIORITY IN CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCIES Ryan A. Oliver B.A. University of California, Berkeley, 2004 J.D. University of Southern California, Gould School of Law, 2007 THESIS Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION at CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, SACRAMENTO SPRING 2010 OPTION-BASED PRICING AND DEVIATIONS FROM ABSOLUTE PRIORITY IN CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCIES A Thesis by Ryan A. Oliver Approved by: ____________________________________, Committee Chair Hao Lin, Ph.D., C.F.A. ____________________________________, Second Reader Lan Liu, Ph.D. ____________________ Date ii Student: Ryan Andrew Oliver I certify that this student has met the requirements for format contained in the University format manual, and that this Thesis is suitable for shelving in the Library and credit is to be awarded for the Thesis. _____________________________________________ Monica Lam, Ph.D. Associate Dean for Graduate and External Programs College of Business Administration iii _____________________ Date Abstract of OPTION-BASED PRICING AND DEVIATIONS FROM ABSOLUTE PRIORITY IN CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCIES by Ryan A. Oliver Deviations from absolute priority are simply the result of more accurate valuations of creditor interests. This paper argues that unsecured claims against a company in Chapter 11 are comprised of call options on the company’s assets. To the extent this is true, option-pricing formulas provide an explanation for the deviations from absolute priority in bankruptcy resolutions. These deviations are simply the difference between the nominal value of a claimant’s interest and the value of that claimant’s interest as determined by an option-based pricing analysis. ____________________________________, Committee Chair Hao Lin, Ph.D., C.F.A. ____________________ Date iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to thank Dr. Hao Lin, Assistant Professor of Finance in the College of Business Administration of California State University, Sacramento for his insight, encouragement, and patience v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………… v Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………… 1 2. ABSOLUTE PRIORITY………………………………………………… 3 3. LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………………….. 5 4. DEVIATIONS FROM ABSOLUTE PRIORITY ……………………………. 10 5. CONCLUSION………………………………………………………….… 27 References………………………………………………………………………..… 28 Appendix ………………………………………………………………………...… 30 vi 1 Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION This paper sets forth a simple, options-based, framework for analyzing and predicting deviations from absolute priority in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy settlements. The framework presented herein is inspired by the work of Baird and Bernstein who, in a 2006 Yale Law Journal paper, compellingly argue that uncertainty in valuation, combined with a priority based bankruptcy regime creates option value for junior creditors. Baird and Bernstein posit that this junior creditor option value drives deviations from absolute priority. They argue that in negotiated settlements, junior creditors are compensated for the option value they hold as follows. The uncertainty inherent in valuing a large corporation in financial distress creates a bargaining dynamic that accounts for many of the puzzling departures from absolute priority that the standard model cannot explain. “Deviations” from absolute priority are often nothing of the kind. They are instead the natural product of bargaining in a system that is committed to respecting priority, but must do so in a world in which priorities are enforced through a valuation process the outcome of which is uncertain. This paper accepts the premise set forth by Baird and Bernstein and attempts to lend further support to their position by setting forth a framework for valuing the option right junior creditors hold in bankruptcy proceedings. In doing so, this paper also further explains deviations from absolute priority, the prevalence of which have been observed and debated by reorganization scholars for decades. 2 An overview of the framework used in this paper to value junior creditor options and explain deviations from absolute priority is set forth below. First, creditor claims are recast as combinations of options, relying on the insights of contingent claims analysis. Next, these individual constituent options are priced using a version of the BlackScholes formula. Then, the financial position of each creditor is determined by reconstructing each creditor claim pursuant to its option-based value. And, finally, the results of this procedure are analyzed to explain, and predict deviations from absolute priority in Chapter 11 bankruptcies. The results of this pricing procedure show that, within the contours of the assumptions and simplifications upon which this paper is based, deviations from absolute priority are driven by junior creditor option value. Thus, to the extent this is true, factors which increase the value of junior creditor options will also increase the magnitude of deviations from absolute priority. This paper focuses on the role debtor asset levels place in determining creditor option value, but a similar analysis could be conducted by varying any of the inputs to the Black-Scholes formula. It is the position of this paper that such an option-based analysis of deviations from absolute priority demonstrates that such deviations are, in practice, simple recognitions, by the parties, of the true value of bankruptcy creditor claims. 3 Chapter 2 ABSOLUTE PRIORITY The absolute priority rule is the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy tenet which holds that senior creditors may insist upon being paid in full before any creditor subordinate to them receives anything. With respect to unsecured creditors, the Code states that a plan may be confirmed over the objection of a senior creditor if: (i) the plan provides that each holder of an interest of such class receive or retain on account of such interest property of a value, as of the effective date of the plan, equal to the greatest of the allowed amount of any fixed liquidation preference to which such holder is entitled, any fixed redemption price to which such holder is entitled, or the value of such interest; or (ii) the holder of any interest that is junior to the interests of such class will not receive or retain under the plan on account of such junior interest any property.1 The absolute priority rule for unsecured creditors holds that each class must receive the value of its interest (in net present value terms) OR in the alternative; no subordinate interest may receive anything. If one assumes that a debtor company’s value is known with certainty and is not subject to any variation or disagreement among the parties, applying the absolute priority rule is a simple matter of ranking interests and assets to creditors. For example, consider a hypothetical company in Chapter 11 with only three classes of claimants: senior debt-holders with a $500 claim, junior debt-holders with a $250 claim, and equity-holders who are the residual claimants to the company’s assets. In this case, company assets are distributed first to the senior creditors until their claim is satisfied, then to the junior creditors until their claim is satisfied, and finally any residual 1 11 U.S.C.A. § 1129(b)(1). 4 assets are distribute to the equity holders. The table below summarizes the distribution of interests to creditors when the company is worth varying amounts: Firm Value $1,000.00 Position Under Strict Absolute Priority $ 500.00 Position Under Strict Absolute Priority $ 250.00 Position Under Strict Absolute Priority $ 250.00 $750.00 $500.00 Senior Debt $500.00 $500.00 Junior Debt $250.00 $ Equity $ $ - $250.00 $250.00 $ - $ - Distributions Under Absolute Priority Regime In accordance with absolute priority rules, no subordinate creditor in this example receives anything until all interests senior to it are paid in full. However, in practice, deviations from absolute priority are commonplace. 5 Chapter 3. LITERATURE REVIEW 3.1. Contingent Claim Analysis This paper posits that deviations from absolute priority can be explained, in part, by valuing creditor interests as contingent claims on the debtor corporation’s assets. In doing so, this paper relies on the insights of Contingent Claim Analysis. A contingent claim is one that pays off only upon the occurrence certain contingencies; i.e. the value of an underlying asset is greater (less) than a pre-specified value for a call (put) option. (Epstein 93). Fisher Black and Myron Scholes, in 1972, first established that an option can be valued as a function of five variables: the current value of the underlying asset (S), the variance in value of the underlying asset ( 2 ), the strike price of the option (K), the time to expiration of the option (t), and the riskless interest rate (r). (see appendix for formula). This Contingent Claim Analysis (“CCA”), has subsequently been refined and expanded by Black and Scholes (73), Merton (73, 74, 77), and others to show that any asset can be valued as an option if its value is a function of the value of an underlying asset. Pursuant to CCA, any corporate liability, including shareholder equity and various types of debt, can be valued as claims contingent on the value of the underlying corporate assets. This paper values one such set of corporate liabilities, creditor interests in bankrupt companies, using a simple version of CCA. This approach is a direct outgrowth of the arguments set forth in Baird and Bernstein’s 2006 Yale Law Journal Article, “Absolute Priority, Valuation Uncertainty, and the Reorganization Bargain.” 6 3.2. “Absolute Priority, Valuation Uncertainty, and the Reorganization Bargain” As Baird and Bernstein write in their Yale Law Journal article, “Absolute Priority, Valuation Uncertainty, and the Reorganization Bargain,” Modern Chapter 11 is the equivalent of a provision in a joint venture agreement that calls for the appointment of an appraiser and uses the number the appraiser sets (or is expected to set) as the baseline against which to measure the rights of parties. . . . in the reorganization context, any valuation mechanism that does not involve a transaction that monetizes the senior investor’s position (through a sale of the business or a buyout of the position) creates option value in the position of the junior investor.2 The reorganization process creates option value for junior investors through the interaction of the absolute priority regime, the right to a valuation hearing the Code grants impaired claimants, and the uncertainty inherent in business valuations. 3.2.1. Absolute Priority The absolute priority rule is the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy tenet which holds that senior creditors may insist upon being paid in full before any creditor subordinate to them receives anything. This absolute priority rule for unsecured creditors requires that each class must receive the value of its interest (in net present value terms) OR in the alternative; no subordinate interest may receive anything. 3.2.2. Right to a Valuation Hearing The conflict between creditor classes is central to the bankruptcy process. The Code attempts to strike a balance between enforcing senior claimants’ contractual priority rights and providing some protection for the interests of junior claimants during 2 Douglas G. Baird & Donald S. Bernstein. Absolute Priority, Valuation Uncertainty, and the Reorganization Bargain. 115 Yale L.J. 1930 (2006). 7 reorganizations. The Code strikes this balance by enforcing absolute priority in contested plans while allowing any single dissenting class of creditors to protect its position by rejecting a proposed plan and insisting upon a judicial valuation hearing. During the judicial valuation hearing, the court finds a total debtor value against which the claims of creditors may be assessed in light of the absolute priority requirement. If the court finds that the contested plan is “fair and equitable” and that the absolute priority requirement is satisfied, the court may “cram-down” a plan over the objection of dissenting creditors. Under the Code, any impaired claimant may reject a proposed bankruptcy plan and insist on this valuation hearing. However, any value found by a court, or by any other appraiser, is subject to some amount of uncertainty. 3.3.3. Valuation Uncertainty Business valuation is inherently uncertain as the process relies on predictions about future performance. Depending on the assumptions made concerning future cash flows, discount rates, and general economic conditions, the derived value of a business will vary. Though an incredible amount of scholarship has been dedicated to the field of business valuation it is sufficient for the purposes of this paper to note that any valuation of a distressed business is subject to some amount of variance. Moreover, deriving the value of a distressed business through an adversarial, litigious, process likely introduces some additional uncertainty into business valuation. 3.3.4. Interaction among Factors 8 The interaction among absolute priority, the right to a valuation hearing, and valuation uncertainty creates option value for junior investors. Following the example of Baird and Bernstein, this paper proposes a hypothetical to illustrate this creation of option value in the reorganization context. Suppose a debtor company has two creditors: senior debt with a $500 claim and junior debt with a $250 claim. Both creditors believe that the company, going forward, is worth exactly $500. Further, both creditors believe that impartial valuations of the business by bankruptcy courts would have a mean value of $500 but that any individual valuation could be higher or lower, each with equal probability. The bankruptcy code gives any impaired class the right to insist upon judicial appraisal. This appraisal is subject to some amount of variance and this variance, combined with a right to a hearing, is a source of value to the junior creditor. Because the judge has been assumed to be an impartial appraiser, 50% of the time the appraisal will return a value of more than $500 (“high valuation”) and 50% of the time it will return a value of less than $500 (“low valuation”). In the former case – the high valuation – the junior creditor will receive the difference between the appraised value and $500. In the latter case – the low valuation – the junior creditor will receive nothing. But, due to the absolute priority regime, the junior creditor will never receive anything unless the senior creditor has been paid in full. Therefore, the junior creditor faces no downside risk by insisting upon a valuation hearing, but, conversely, the hearing exposes the junior creditor to a potential upside based on the possibility of a high valuation. 9 For example, if a plan is proposed whereby the senior creditor will receive $500 – the face value of its claim and the amount that all parties believe the business to be worth – the junior creditor has no reason to not reject the plan and ask for a judicial valuation. Having been offered nothing, the junior creditor has nothing to lose by rejecting the offer and opting for a judicial appraisal. Half of the time, the judicial valuation will be high – more than $500 – and the junior creditor will receive that amount minus $500. The other half of the time the valuation will be low – less than $500 – and the junior creditor will be no worse off than it was under the original plan. Faced with a valuation hearing, the payoff profile for the junior creditor appears as follows: Payoff Profile for Junior Creditor Where the X axis represents the value of the company as determined by the bankruptcy judge, the Y axis represents the junior creditor’s position, and the x represents the amount of senior debt. Given this payoff profile, it become apparent that he right to insist on a valuation hearing has value. The remainder of this paper builds on the work of Baird and Bernstein 10 by proposing a framework for valuing this right using Contingent Claim Analysis, thereby explaining deviations from absolute priority, under specified conditions. 11 Chapter 4. ABSOLUTE PRIORITY This section argues that option pricing explains, in part, deviations from absolute priority. The argument proceeds as follows. First, senior debt, junior debt, and equity bankruptcy claims are described in terms of their constituent call option components. Next, these individual options which make up creditor claims are valued, under numerous firm asset levels, using the Black Scholes formula. These individual options are then combined to reconstruct the total financial position of each claimant. This option based position is then compared to the position of each claimant in a counterfactual regime which strictly enforced absolute priority. This comparison is made to determine and analyze deviations from absolute priority and to provide an explanation for the prevalence of these deviations in bankruptcy agreements. 4.1. Option Components of Bankruptcy Claims The Black-Scholes-Merton analysis of corporate liabilities as a call options on a firm’s assets is used in this paper to address bankruptcy liabilities. The absolute priority regime treats every unsecured interest as a “residual” claimant (to the extent of its claim) on the assets of the firm after interests senior to it have been paid. Moreover, each of these claims continues to enjoy limited liability in bankruptcy. Thus, in bankruptcy proceedings, levels of unsecured debt and equity can be recast as a hierarchy of interests composed of call options as described in the work of Merton and others. To simplify this initial description of pricing bankruptcy claims as options, this paper makes a number of unrealistic, but simplifying, assumptions. 12 Assumptions: 1. All creditor claims are general and unsecured. 2. There are only three classes of creditors: senior debt, junior debt, and equity. 3. The value of the firm is known with certainty and all debt is mature. 4. The standard deviation of the judicial appraisal is known with certainty 5. The length of bankruptcy proceedings is known with certainty. 6. All options expire at, and may only be exercised at, the conclusion of the bankruptcy proceedings; the call options are European. 7. No dividends are paid during bankruptcy proceedings. Given these assumptions, creditor claims on companies in bankruptcy proceedings can be recast and analyzed as combinations of European call options. Senior Debt: When a company defaults on its debt, the debt-holders become the owners of the company. More technically, upon default, senior debt-holders are granted a senior interest in the assets of the company equal to the outstanding principal and interest on the debt. This claim is satisfied if a reorganization settlement grants the senior debt-holder assets equal to this amount. Senior creditors recover dollar for dollar until their claim is satisfied and then receive nothing beyond that amount. Graphically: Senior Debt as a Covered Call Position 13 Financially, the senior debt-holders are, in effect, taking a covered call position on the company’s assets. The senior debt-holders are: (i) long the company’s assets and (ii) short a European call option on company assets with a strike price equal to the outstanding senior debt. Junior Debt: Junior debt holders are next in line to the company’s assets. After the senior debtholders have been made whole, junior debt-holders are entitled to the asset of the company in an amount that satisfies this junior claim. Graphically: Junior Debt as a Bull-Spread Position Financially, the junior debt holders are, in effect, taking a bull-spread position on company assets. The junior debt holders are: (i) long a European call option on company assets with a strike price equal to the outstanding senior debt and (ii) short a European call option on company assets with a strike price equal to the total amount of outstanding senior and junior debt. Equity: 14 Equity holders are still the residual owners of bankrupt companies. After the senior and junior debt holders’ claims have been satisfied, the equity holders own all of the remaining assets. Graphically: Equity as a Call Option Financially, equity holders are (i) long a European call option on company assets with a strike price equal to the total amount of outstanding senior and junior debt. Pricing Options: Given this view of bankruptcy claims, the financial position of any claimant can be determined with a straightforward application of the Black-Scholes formula. As set forth above, six inputs are required to value an option. Here, in this assumed bankruptcy example, the inputs to the Black Scholes equation are as follows: S: Current value of the underlying asset. Here, the underlying asset is the debtor firm and it is assumed to be known and certain. Valuations are provided for firm values ranging from $1000 to zero, in ten dollar increments. K: Strike price of the option. Here, the strike price of the option is equal to the face value of the total amount of debt senior to the claim being valued. Thus in this case with three classes of claimants, there are two strike prices: (i) $500, the value of the senior debt and (ii) $750, the combined value of the senior and junior debt. 15 t: Life to expiration of the option. Here, it is assumed that options expire at the conclusion of bankruptcy proceedings, which will occur in 6 months (0.5 years). r = Riskless interest rate corresponding to the life of the option. Here, the riskless interest rate corresponding to the length of the bankruptcy proceedings is assumed to be 2%. 2 : Variance in the ln(value) of the underlying asset. Here, the variance is driven by the variation in the judicial valuation and assumed to be 25%. D = dividend yield. Here, D is zero as it has been assumed that cash dividend payments have been suspended during Chapter 11 proceedings. With these inputs, the value of senior, junior, and equity claims can be determined. Figure 6 summarizes the assumptions made in the following example. Creditor Interests Claims Senior Debt 500 Junior Debt 250 Equity Residual Black Scholes Inputs Spot Price (Firm Values) 1000 declinig in 10 increments Strike Prices (Debt Totals) 500 (Sr. Debt) 750 (Sr. Debt + Jr. Debt) Risk Free Interest Rate 2.00% assumed Dividend Yield 0% assumed Standard Deviation of Appraisal 25% assumed Time (years until end of proceedings) 0.5 assumed Summary of Assumptions and Inputs Figure 6 sets forth the value of options with strike prices at $500 and $750 at firm values ranging from $1000 to zero. Each of these values is derived using the BlackScholes formula and the assumptions stated above. Calculations and exact values are attached in the Appendix. 16 34 0 28 0 22 0 16 0 10 0 40 34 0 28 0 22 0 16 0 10 0 40 40 0 46 0 52 0 64 0 58 0 70 0 76 0 88 0 82 0 94 0 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10 00 Call Value Call at $500 Firm Value Call Call at $750 300 Call Value 250 200 150 100 50 40 0 46 0 52 0 64 0 58 0 70 0 76 0 88 0 82 0 94 0 10 00 0 Firm Value Call Expectedly, the value of these calls declines as the firm’s value falls and the value of the calls do not reach zero until the options are well out of the money. After determining these option values, one can assess the position of each claimant by combining the various rights each claimant holds. For example, and according to the framework set forth above, the senior debtor in this example is financially (i) long the assets of the firm and (ii) short a European call option with a strike price equal to the nominal value of the junior debt. Thus, in the case where the firm is worth $1000: the senior creditor is +1000 and - $504.98 for a total position of 495.02. A 17 summary of each claimant’s position, under a number of different firm values, is presented below.3 Firm Value Senior Debt Long Firm Short Option Call Based Position 1000.00 1000.00 900.00 900.00 800.00 800.00 750.00 750.00 700.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 100.00 10.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 100.00 10.00 504.98 404.99 305.09 255.31 205.96 111.73 -37.58 -4.35 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Firm Value 1000.00 900.00 800.00 750.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 100.00 10.00 3 See Appendix A for full calculations Long Call 500 Junior Debt Short Option Call Based 750 Position 495.02 504.98 -260.35 244.63 495.01 404.99 -167.59 237.39 494.91 305.09 -87.80 217.29 494.69 255.31 -56.38 198.94 494.04 205.96 -32.33 173.63 488.27 462.42 395.65 299.95 250.00 200.00 100.00 10.00 111.73 37.58 4.35 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.53 -0.47 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 105.20 37.11 4.34 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Equity Long Option Call Based 500 Position 260.35 167.59 87.80 56.38 32.33 6.53 0.47 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 260.35 167.59 87.80 56.38 32.33 6.53 0.47 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18 Graphically, Option Based Positions 600 Option Values 500 Senior Debt Option Based Position 400 Junior Debt Option Based Position 300 200 Equity Option Based Position 100 20 90 160 230 300 370 440 510 580 650 720 790 860 930 1000 0 Firm Value These financial positions are next compared to the positions of claimants under a regime where absolute priority is strictly enforced. The differences represent deviations from absolute priority. Firm Value Option Based Position 1000 900 800 750 700 600 500 400 300 250 200 100 495.02 495.01 494.91 494.69 494.04 488.27 462.42 395.65 299.95 250.00 200.00 100.00 Senior Debt Absolute Deviation Priority Based Position 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 400 300 250 200 100 -4.98 -4.99 -5.09 -5.31 -5.96 -11.73 -37.58 -4.35 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 Option Based Position 244.63 237.39 217.29 198.94 173.63 105.20 37.11 4.34 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 Junior Debt Absolute Deviation Priority Based Position 250 250 250 250 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5.37 -12.61 -32.71 -51.06 -26.37 5.20 37.11 4.34 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 10 10.00 10 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 Equity Firm Value Option Based Position 1000 900 800 750 700 600 500 400 300 250 200 100 10 260.35 167.59 87.80 56.38 32.33 6.53 0.47 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Deviations from Absolute Priority Graphically: Absolute Priority Based Position 250 150 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deviation 10.35 17.59 37.80 56.38 32.33 6.53 0.47 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20 Senior Debt 600 500 Position Value 400 300 200 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 0 Firm Value Option Based Position Absolute Priority Based Position Senior Debt 0 10 00 95 0 90 0 85 0 80 0 75 0 70 0 65 0 60 0 55 0 50 0 45 0 40 0 35 0 30 0 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 50 0 -5 Deviation -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Firm Value Deviation When using option-based valuation, the financial position of the senior debtholder is always worse than it would be under strict absolute priority, i.e. option value is worth 21 less than the face value of the senior debt. Intuitively, this makes sense. In no case can the senior debtholder recover more than $500; but, in every case there is some chance that the senior debtholder will recover less. Thus, the expected value of the senior debtholder’s position is always less than the face value of its claim. The option-based explanation for this is simple. Senior debtholders are long an asset and short a call on that same asset at $500. Therefore, at every firm value level, senior debtholders are giving up a portion of their recovery as determined by the value of the call which they are short. For example, at $500, senior debtholders are entitled to all of the $500 of firm value minus the value of a call option at $500. At a firm value of $500, the difference is $37.58. This point represents the maximum deviation from absolute priority. The shape of the deviation graph is a result of the interaction between option value and absolute priority. The value of the senior creditor’s option based position falls as the firm value declines. But, the absolute priority based position remains constant until the face value of the claim is reached and only then begins to fall. Therefore, the deviation from absolute priority grows steadily until recovery under absolute priority is determined by available assets. After this point is reached, the value of the absolute priority position falls in direct proportion to the fall in firm value. During this decline the deviation shrinks as the senior creditor’s positions under absolute priority and optionbased pricing converge as the firm’s value approaches zero. Deviation 10 00 95 0 90 0 85 0 80 0 75 0 70 0 65 0 60 0 55 0 50 0 45 0 40 0 35 0 30 0 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 -20 -40 -60 Firm Value Deviation 0 50 Option Based Position 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 Position Value 22 Junior Debt 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Firm Value Absolute Priority Based Position Junior Debt 60 40 20 0 23 Equity 300 250 Position Value 200 150 100 50 50 0 0 100 50 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 0 Firm Value Option Based Position Absolute Priority Based Position Equity 60 Deviation 50 40 30 20 10 10 00 95 0 90 0 85 0 80 0 75 0 70 0 65 0 60 0 55 0 50 0 45 0 40 0 35 0 30 0 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 0 Firm Value Deviation The position of the equity holder is converse to that of the senior debtholder. At every firm value, equity holders are in a better position under option-based valuation than 24 they would be under a strict application of absolute priority. As residual owners, equity claimants hold a call option on the firm in addition to any value they might recover under absolute priority. Thus, at every firm value, equity holders are better off under optionbased pricing than under a strict application of absolute priority. The deviations from absolute priority are similarly converse to that of the senior creditor’s deviations. From a firm value of 0 to a firm value of $750, deviation steadily grows as the value of the equity option increases – due to the strike price approaching the spot price – while the position of equity holders under strict absolute priority remains at zero. Deviation is maximized at $750 because at values above this point equity holders begin to recover under absolute priority. At values above $750, equity holders begin to recover under absolute priority. Equity holders’ positions under option based valuation and absolute priority converge as the firm value continues to rise. The above graph shows that, at every firm value, deviations among the creditors average to zero. Value is not created or destroyed depending on the method of valuing and assigning creditor interests through bankruptcy. All that changes, depending on method selected, is the way the debtor company is divided. 4.2. Implications of Relaxing Assumptions In demonstrating the creation of option value, this paper made a number of simplifying, but unrealistic, assumptions. The mathematical examples and explanations given in this paper are built upon a number of assumptions which do not hold true in practice. In comparing bankruptcy claims to publicly traded options, this paper argues that analogues for each of the six inputs to the Black-Scholes equation for pricing 25 securities could be found for bankruptcy claims. However, the bankruptcy claim inputs nearly all differ from option inputs in an important respect. The bankruptcy claim inputs are not known with nearly the same degree of certainty as are those of true options. This lack of certainty speaks only to the model’s ability to accurately predict the actual divergences from absolute priority and does not detract from the model’s usefulness as a partial and theoretical explanation for the prevalence of deviations from absolute priority in bankruptcy settlements. The lack of certainty in inputs prevents one from finding a precise option-based value for the creditors’ position. In any settlement, parties could easily, and in good faith, reach different conclusions about option value. Depending on the parties’ honest assessments of: K, the value of the underlying company; σ, the standard deviation of the underlying company’s value; and T, the time to conclusion of the proceedings, the parties could come to significantly different conclusions about option value. Moreover, creditors could use any number of option based analyses to value their positions. In practice, creditor interests might be better modeled using more sophisticated tools, such as combinations of capped-style options, but this paper relied on the simplest option framework possible to simplify the explanation of the creation of option value. Still, in any case where the parties recognize that a reasonable possibility exists such that the senior creditors’ claims will not exhaust the debtor’s assets, option value will be vested in junior creditors. This option value changes the nature of bankruptcy negotiations. Bankruptcy settlements are largely driven by negotiation among the parties and option value informs these negotiations. Sophisticated creditors are certainly aware 26 of the dynamics that create option value and will bargain to capture that value. Nothing in the bankruptcy code calls for a determination of option value. Instead, the parties’ individual, private, assessment of option value will, in part, determine their bargaining positions. As a bankruptcy plan’s treatment of a creditor’s interest approaches that creditor’s appraisal of its position, the creditor becomes more likely to approve the plan. 27 Chapter 5. CONCLUSION Deviations from absolute priority are simply the result of more accurate valuations of creditor interests. It is not the face value of claims that are important in negotiated settlements. Rather, it is their true value; the value best determined through option pricing that drives settlements. This paper argues that unsecured claims against a company in Chapter 11 are comprised of call options on the company’s assets. To the extent this is true, optionpricing formulas provide a quantitative explanation for the deviations from absolute priority in bankruptcy resolutions.4 These deviations are the simply the difference between the nominal value of a claimant’s interest and the value of that claimant’s interest as determined by option pricing tools, especially the Black-Scholes formula. The Black-Scholes formula reflects the role that asset values, claim values, time, variance, and interest rates play in determining creditor claim values. It is the position of this paper that it is these factors, not mere inefficiencies in the bankruptcy process itself, which drive bankruptcy settlements. Deviations from absolute priority are a consequence of the call option value junior creditors hold. In negotiated settlements, senior creditors, in effect, purchase these options from the junior creditors, allowing subordinate creditors to recover at the expense of senior interests. To garner the approval of junior creditors, and to avoid the expense and uncertainty of a judicial appraisal, Chapter 11 plan drafters will offer junior creditors The structure of this section is inspired by the format of “Pricing the Securities of Companies of Chapter 11: An Options Approach” by William H. White. 4 28 some value. Junior creditors will tend to reject any plan where the value they are offered is lower than the value – determined through option pricing – that the junior creditor expects to receive from a judicial valuation. Over time, equilibrium should be reached between the senior creditor’s right to insist on absolute priority and the junior creditor’s right to call for a judicial valuation. Financially, this equilibrium point should occur where the bankruptcy plan compensates each creditor according to the value it holds. Thus, a junior creditor who is out of the money, in terms of nominal value, will tend to receive something under the negotiated plan whenever enough valuation uncertainty exists to give the junior creditor some chance of recovering under a judicial valuation. Conversely, a senior creditor will tend to voluntarily surrender its right to insist on priority in distributions whenever enough valuation uncertainty exists such that the senior creditor’s expected value – based on option value – is less than the nominal value of it claim. Senior creditors will make this concession in order to avoid the expense and uncertainty of litigation. Assuming that negotiation involves only minimal transaction costs, all parties should prefer to avoid the costs of litigation and instead negotiate a settlement that reflects their true financial positions. These positions are most accurately determined using option pricing, not by reference to nominal debt values. This process theoretically explains the prevalence of deviations from absolute priority. To explain deviations from absolute priority in terms of valuation uncertainty, previous scholars have pointed to informational asymmetries between classes of claimants (note) and deficiencies in the bankruptcy process which hinder the enforcement 29 of senior creditors’ rights (note). While these arguments certainly contribute to the debate, it is unlikely – given the sophistication and expertise of reorganization professionals – that these afore-cited inefficiencies can account for the routine divergence between absolute priority in theory and bankruptcy settlement in practice. This paper, and the scholarship it rests upon, suggests that it is the option-like structure of bankruptcy claims themselves that drives, in large part, the empirically observed deviations from absolute priority. 30 REFERENCES Baird, Douglas G. and Donald S. Bernstein. (2006), Absolute Priority, Valuation Uncertainty, and the Reorganization Bargain, Yale Law Journal 115, 1930. Black and Scholes. (1973), The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political Economy (May/June) pg. 7, 637. Bebchuk, Lucian A. (1988), A New Approach to Corporate Reorganizations, Harvard Law Review 101,775. Bonbright, James C. and Milton M. Bergerman. (1928) Two Rival Theories of Priority Rights of Secured Holders in a Corporate Reorganization. Columbia Law Review 28, 127. Charitou, Andreas and Lenos Trigeorgis (Draft 2000), Option-Based Bankruptcy Prediction. Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=248709. Eberhart, Allan C. et. Al., Security Pricing and Deviations from the Absolute Priority Rule in Bankruptcy Proceedings. 45 J. Fin. 1457 (1990). Epstein, David G., Steve H. Nickles, & James J. White. Bankruptcy pg 2. West Publishing Co., St. Paul, Minn., 1993. Gilson Stuart C., Edith S. Hotchkiss, Richard S. Ruback. (2000). Valuation of Bankrupt Firms. The Review of Financial Studies 13, 1, 43. Hillegeist, Stephen A., Elizabeth K. Keating, Donald P. Cram, and Kyle G. Lundstedt. (2004), Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy, Review of Accounting Studies 9, 1. In re All Media Properties, Inc. 5 B.R. 126, 142 n. 5 (Bankr. S.D.Tex.1980), order aff’d, 646 F.2d 193 (5th Cir.1981). In re AOV industries, Inc., 792 F.2d 1140 (D.C. Cir. 1986). Kennedy. (1979), The Commencement of a Case Under the New Bankruptcy Law, Wash & Lee Law Review, 36, 977. Klee, All You Ever Wanted to Know about Cramdown Under the New Bankruptcy Code, 53 Am. Bankr. L.J. 133. McDonald, R. (2002). Derivatives Markets. First Edition. 31 Merton, R.C. (1973), Theory of Rational Option Pricing, Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4, pp. 141-183. Merton, R.C. (1974), On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates, Journal of Finance 29, 449. Merton, R.C. (1977), On the Pricing of Contingent Claims and the Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Journal of Financial Economics 5, 241. Schwartz, Alan. (1998), A Contract theory Approach to Business Bankruptcy. Yale Law Journal 107, 1807. Vassalou , M. and Y. Xing (2004). Default Risk in Equity Returns, Journal of Finance. 2, 831. White, William H. (1990). Pricing the Securities of Companies in Chapter 11: An Options Approach. NYU Stern School of Business. http://www.williamhwhite.biz/images/WHW_Pricing_Ch_11_Secs__An_Options_Appr.pdf WORKS CONSULTED Arzac, Enrique R. (2008). Valuation for Mergers, Buyouts, and Restructurings. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York. Baker, H. Kent. (2003), Understanding Financial Management: A Practical Guide. Blackwell Publishing., Malden MA. Brealey, Richard A., Stewart C. Myers, and Franklin Allen. (2006), Principles of Corporate Finance. McGraw-Hill Irwin. New York. Damodaran, Aswath. (2002), Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York. Nickles, Steve H. and David G. Epstein. (2006). Bankruptcy & Related Law. Thompson West. St. Paul, MN. 32 APPENDIX Senior Debt Firm Long Short Value Firm Call 1000 1000 -505 990 990 -495 980 980 -485 970 970 -475 960 960 -465 950 950 -455 940 940 -445 930 930 -435 920 920 -425 910 910 -415 900 900 -405 890 890 -395 880 880 -385 870 870 -375 860 860 -365 850 850 -355 840 840 -345 830 830 -335 820 820 -325 810 810 -315.1 800 800 -305.1 790 790 -295.1 780 780 -285.2 770 770 -275.2 760 760 -265.2 750 750 -255.3 740 740 -245.4 730 730 -235.5 720 720 -225.6 710 710 -215.8 700 700 -206 Option Based Position 495.0239391 495.0236685 495.0233238 495.0228851 495.0223271 495.0216179 495.0207173 495.0195748 495.0181265 495.0162925 495.0139725 495.0110409 495.0073407 495.0026762 494.9968034 494.9894196 494.980149 494.9685269 494.9539799 494.935802 494.9131265 494.8848921 494.8498037 494.8062854 494.752426 494.6859162 494.6039758 494.5032715 494.3798229 494.2288992 494.0449038 Absolute Priority Based Position 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 Deviation -4.976061 -4.976332 -4.976676 -4.977115 -4.977673 -4.978382 -4.979283 -4.980425 -4.981874 -4.983707 -4.986027 -4.988959 -4.992659 -4.997324 -5.003197 -5.01058 -5.019851 -5.031473 -5.04602 -5.064198 -5.086874 -5.115108 -5.150196 -5.193715 -5.247574 -5.314084 -5.396024 -5.496729 -5.620177 -5.771101 -5.955096 33 690 680 670 660 650 640 630 620 610 600 590 580 570 560 550 540 530 520 510 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 690 -196.2 680 -186.4 670 -176.8 660 -167.2 650 -157.6 640 -148.2 630 -138.9 620 -129.7 610 -120.6 600 -111.7 590 -103 580 -94.53 570 -86.28 560 -78.3 550 -70.61 540 -63.25 530 -56.24 520 -49.61 510 -43.38 500 -37.58 490 -32.23 480 -27.34 470 -22.92 460 -18.97 450 -15.48 440 -12.44 430 -9.84 420 -7.645 410 -5.827 400 -4.35 390 -3.175 380 -2.262 370 -1.569 360 -1.058 350 -0.691 340 -0.436 330 -0.265 320 -0.155 310 -0.087 493.8212499 493.5502271 493.2228616 492.8287746 492.3560412 491.7910575 491.1184241 490.3208526 489.3791091 488.2720048 486.9764477 485.4675693 483.7189407 481.7028884 479.3909219 476.7542765 473.7645723 470.39458 466.6190774 462.4157681 457.7662241 452.6568039 447.0794882 441.0325706 434.5211394 427.5572918 420.1600344 412.3548417 404.1728704 395.6498575 386.8247609 377.7382305 368.4310204 358.9424633 349.3091267 339.5637528 329.7345508 319.844873 309.9132572 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 -6.17875 -6.449773 -6.777138 -7.171225 -7.643959 -8.208942 -8.881576 -9.679147 -10.62089 -11.728 -13.02355 -14.53243 -16.28106 -18.29711 -20.60908 -23.24572 -26.23543 -29.60542 -33.38092 -37.58423 -32.23378 -27.3432 -22.92051 -18.96743 -15.47886 -12.44271 -9.839966 -7.645158 -5.82713 -4.350142 -3.175239 -2.261769 -1.56898 -1.057537 -0.690873 -0.436247 -0.265449 -0.155127 -0.086743 34 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 -0.046 -0.023 -0.011 -0.005 -0.002 -8E-04 -3E-04 -9E-05 -3E-05 -7E-06 -1E-06 -3E-07 -5E-08 -6E-09 -6E-10 -5E-11 -3E-12 -1E-13 -3E-15 -4E-17 -3E-19 -1E-21 -1E-24 -3E-28 -9E-33 -2E-38 -5E-46 -8E-57 -6E-74 -2E-108 299.9537813 289.9766424 279.9888619 269.9950178 259.9979232 249.9991993 239.9997169 229.9999091 219.9999738 209.9999933 199.9999985 189.9999997 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 -0.046219 -0.023358 -0.011138 -0.004982 -0.002077 -0.000801 -0.000283 -9.09E-05 -2.62E-05 -6.69E-06 -1.49E-06 -2.85E-07 -4.56E-08 -5.97E-09 -6.19E-10 -4.9E-11 -2.81E-12 -1.14E-13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 Junior Debt Firm Long Short Option Based Value Call Call Position 500 750 1000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 890 880 870 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 690 680 670 660 650 640 630 620 610 600 505 495 485 475 465 455 445 435 425 415 405 395 385 375 365 355 345 335 325 315.1 305.1 295.1 285.2 275.2 265.2 255.3 245.4 235.5 225.6 215.8 206 196.2 186.4 176.8 167.2 157.6 148.2 138.9 129.7 120.6 111.7 -260.4 -250.8 -241.2 -231.7 -222.3 -213 -203.7 -194.5 -185.4 -176.5 -167.6 -158.9 -150.3 -141.8 -133.5 -125.4 -117.4 -109.7 -102.2 -94.87 -87.8 -80.97 -74.41 -68.11 -62.1 -56.38 -50.95 -45.83 -41.01 -36.51 -32.33 -28.45 -24.89 -21.63 -18.66 -15.99 -13.6 -11.47 -9.59 -7.948 -6.525 244.6252637 244.2194935 243.7614182 243.2451436 242.6642592 242.0118179 241.2803202 240.4617041 239.5473396 238.5280322 237.3940347 236.1350687 234.7403585 233.1986778 231.4984105 229.6276282 227.5741836 225.3258232 222.8703178 220.1956127 217.2899975 214.1422947 210.7420663 207.0798374 203.1473346 198.937736 194.4459301 189.6687793 184.605383 179.2573359 173.6289745 167.727606 161.5637133 155.1511276 148.507163 141.6527042 134.6122405 127.4138385 120.0890466 112.6727228 105.2027815 Absolute Priority Based Position 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Deviation -5.374736 -5.780507 -6.238582 -6.754856 -7.335741 -7.988182 -8.71968 -9.538296 -10.45266 -11.47197 -12.60597 -13.86493 -15.25964 -16.80132 -18.50159 -20.37237 -22.42582 -24.67418 -27.12968 -29.80439 -32.71 -35.85771 -39.25793 -42.92016 -46.85267 -51.06226 -45.55407 -40.33122 -35.39462 -30.74266 -26.37103 -22.27239 -18.43629 -14.84887 -11.49284 -8.347296 -5.38776 -2.586161 0.0890466 2.6727228 5.2027815 690 680 670 660 650 640 630 620 610 600 590 580 570 560 550 540 530 520 510 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 28.4511 24.8861 21.626 18.6641 15.9913 13.5967 11.4677 9.5901 7.94817 6.52521 5.3037 4.26559 3.39265 2.66679 2.07033 1.58631 1.19868 0.89256 0.65437 0.47192 0.33445 0.23269 0.15875 0.10607 0.06933 0.04426 0.02756 0.01671 0.00985 0.00563 0.00312 0.00167 0.00086 0.00042 0.0002 9.1E-05 3.9E-05 1.6E-05 6.2E-06 2.2E-06 7.5E-07 2.4E-07 6.8E-08 1.8E-08 28.451144 24.88606 21.626011 18.664062 15.991255 13.596702 11.467737 9.5901009 7.9481681 6.5252137 5.3037009 4.2655899 3.3926542 2.6667938 2.0703349 1.5863051 1.1986756 0.8925606 0.6543708 0.4719151 0.3344518 0.2326905 0.1587493 0.1060742 0.0693281 0.0442591 0.0275573 0.0167071 0.0098453 0.0056285 0.0031151 0.0016653 0.0008578 0.0004246 0.0002013 9.117E-05 3.928E-05 1.604E-05 6.18E-06 2.235E-06 7.55E-07 2.366E-07 6.836E-08 1.806E-08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.45114 24.88606 21.62601 18.66406 15.99125 13.5967 11.46774 9.590101 7.948168 6.525214 5.303701 4.26559 3.392654 2.666794 2.070335 1.586305 1.198676 0.892561 0.654371 0.471915 0.334452 0.23269 0.158749 0.106074 0.069328 0.044259 0.027557 0.016707 0.009845 0.005628 0.003115 0.001665 0.000858 0.000425 0.000201 9.12E-05 3.93E-05 1.6E-05 6.18E-06 2.24E-06 7.55E-07 2.37E-07 6.84E-08 1.81E-08 36 37 Firm Value 1000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 890 880 870 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 Long Call 500 260.351 250.757 241.215 231.732 222.313 212.967 203.699 194.519 185.435 176.456 167.592 158.854 150.252 141.799 133.505 125.383 117.446 109.706 102.176 94.8686 87.7969 80.9728 74.4081 68.1139 62.1002 56.3763 50.9501 45.8279 41.0148 36.5138 32.3261 Equity Option Absolute Based Priority Position Based Position 260.3508 250 250.75684 240 241.21526 230 231.73197 220 222.31341 210 212.96656 200 203.69896 190 194.51872 180 185.43453 170 176.45568 160 167.59199 150 158.85389 140 150.2523 130 141.79865 120 133.50479 110 125.38295 100 117.44567 90 109.70565 80 102.1757 70 94.868585 60 87.796876 50 80.972813 40 74.40813 30 68.113877 20 62.100239 10 56.376348 0 50.950094 0 45.827949 0 41.014794 0 36.513765 0 32.326122 0 Deviation 10.3508 10.75684 11.21526 11.73197 12.31341 12.96656 13.69896 14.51872 15.43453 16.45568 17.59199 18.85389 20.2523 21.79865 23.50479 25.38295 27.44567 29.70565 32.1757 34.86859 37.79688 40.97281 44.40813 48.11388 52.10024 56.37635 50.95009 45.82795 41.01479 36.51376 32.32612 38 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 3E-04 9E-05 3E-05 7E-06 1E-06 3E-07 5E-08 6E-09 6E-10 5E-11 3E-12 1E-13 3E-15 4E-17 3E-19 1E-21 1E-24 3E-28 9E-33 2E-38 5E-46 8E-57 6E-74 ##### -9E-10 -2E-10 -3E-11 -4E-12 -5E-13 -5E-14 -4E-15 -3E-16 -1E-17 -5E-19 -1E-20 -2E-22 -2E-24 -8E-27 -2E-29 -1E-32 -3E-36 -2E-40 -8E-46 -1E-52 -2E-61 -9E-74 -3E-93 ##### 0.000283058 9.08678E-05 2.61891E-05 6.68795E-06 1.49025E-06 2.84549E-07 4.55702E-08 5.96611E-09 6.1907E-10 4.90239E-11 2.82753E-12 1.12028E-13 2.83026E-15 4.14008E-17 3.08614E-19 9.85809E-22 1.05895E-24 2.69057E-28 9.46698E-33 1.94092E-38 5.06476E-46 8.24501E-57 5.9242E-74 1.5995E-108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0002831 9.087E-05 2.619E-05 6.688E-06 1.49E-06 2.845E-07 4.557E-08 5.966E-09 6.191E-10 4.902E-11 2.828E-12 1.12E-13 2.83E-15 4.14E-17 3.086E-19 9.858E-22 1.059E-24 2.691E-28 9.467E-33 1.941E-38 5.065E-46 8.245E-57 5.924E-74 1.6E-108