A Perspective on the Wisconsin Economy:
Past, Present, and Future
Wisconsin Economics Association
November 6, 2009
This presentation is based on information supplied by the U.S. Bureau Of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Federal Housing Finance Authority, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, various divisions of the Wisconsin Department of Revenue.
National forecasts are provided by Global Insight, Inc.
November 6, 2009
1
About Us
• Who We Are
–
Division of Research and Policy Analysis consists of 12 professionals: economists,
information technology professionals, and policy analysts
• What We Do
–
Analyze the State and National Economy
•
Wisconsin is one of only seven states with a dedicated econometric model to forecast
–
–
•
Results are published quarterly
Metropolitan forecasts annually
Prepare specialized reports of interest on the state’s economy
–
Estimate the State’s General Fund Revenues
–
Prepare background analysis on state taxes and local finance
–
Cost and analyze state and local tax proposals
•
•
•
Over 300 separate legislative bills
Nearly 75 budget proposals
Many more proposals that survive the “what-if” stage
• Find Our Reports Here
– http://www.revenue.wi.gov/report/e.html#economy
November 6, 2009
2
Today’s Discussion
1)
The Bad News: The financial crisis brought the US
economy to near collapse.
2)
The Good News: Recovery is underway.
3)
The Bad News: The drop was so deep that full recovery
will take years.
4)
The Good News: Wisconsin will match or exceed US
growth in 2010.
5)
Wisconsin fares better than some critics realize.
November 6, 2009
3
That Was Then…
The US Was In the Midst of a
Long Hard Recession
U.S. At The End of
A Very Long, Deep Recession
Real GDP Growth
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Actual
Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis
.
November 6, 2009
q2
20
09
q1
20
09
q4
20
08
q3
20
08
q2
20
08
q1
20
08
q4
20
07
q3
20
07
q2
20
07
q1
20
07
q4
20
06
q3
20
06
q2
06
20
06
q1
-8
20
Pct Change At Annual Rates
6
Shaded area indicates period of recession
5
Current Recession is Longest
Since the Great Depression
Length of Recession, in Months
-0
9
07
01
20
20
-9
1
90
-8
2
19
81
80
19
19
-7
5
73
-7
0
19
69
-6
1
19
60
-5
8
19
57
-5
4
19
53
-4
9
19
48
45
19
19
-3
8
37
-3
3
19
29
-2
7
19
26
-2
4
19
19
23
-2
1
20
19
19
18
-1
9
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
November 6, 2009
6
In the Beginning,
Job Losses Lighter in 2007-09 Recession than the
Two Prior Recessions
Change In Employment
Thousands of Jobs
0
-100
-200
-300
1990-91
2001
2007-09
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Months After Start of Recession
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
7
Then This Happened:
Financial Crisis Increased Interest Rates
Despite Fed Efforts to Cut Rates
Change in BAA Corporate Bond Rates
Change In Rates from 6 months Before
Recession Startsin Basis Points
300
250
1990-91
2001
2007-09
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-6
-4
-4
-3
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Months From Recession Start
November 6, 2009
8
9
10
11
12
13
8
Financial Crisis Comparable to Great
Depression Hits Late 2008
Spread Between BAA Corporate Bonds and Long-Term Treasuries
6
1929-33
2007-09
Average
4
3
2
1
November 6, 2009
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-1
0
-1
2
-1
4
-1
6
0
-1
8
Precent
5
9
Recession On Top of A Recession
After Eight Months, Employment Losses Took a Nasty Drop Beginning
October 2008
Change In Employment
Thousands of Jobs
200
0
1990-91
2001
2007-09
-200
-400
-600
-800
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Months After Start of Recession
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
10
Wisconsin Lost a Decade of Job
Growth in Six Months
3-Month Change in Employment at Annual Rates
4%
2%
0%
-2%
US
WI
-4%
-6%
-8%
Ja
nM 06
ar
M 06
ay
-0
Ju 6
lS e 06
p0
N 6
ov
-0
Ja 6
nM 07
ar
M 07
ay
-0
Ju 7
lS e 07
p0
N 7
ov
Ja 07
n0
M 8
ar
M 08
ay
-0
Ju 8
lS e 08
p0
N 8
ov
Ja 08
n0
M 9
ar
-0
9
-10%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
11
n
Ju
19
9
l1 8
Ja 99
n 8
1
Ju 999
l1
Ja 99
n 9
20
Ju 00
l2
Ja 00
n 0
2
Ju 001
l2
Ja 00
n 1
20
Ju 02
l2
Ja 00
n 2
20
Ju 03
l2
Ja 00
n 3
2
Ju 004
l2
Ja 00
n 4
20
Ju 05
l2
Ja 00
n 5
2
Ju 006
l2
Ja 00
n 6
20
Ju 07
l2
Ja 00
n 7
20
Ju 08
l2
Ja 00
n 8
20
09
Ja
Wisconsin Unemployment
More than Doubled
Percent of Labor Force Unemployed, Seasonally Adjusted
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
US
WI
9
4.4
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
12
Wealth Losses From Equities
About the Same at a Comparable Stage
of the Great Depression
S&P Index = 100% for Peak Month
Equity Prices Measured by S&P Price Index
110%
2007-09
1929-33
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
-1
8
-1
6
-1
4
-1
2
-1
0
0
2
4
6
8
-8 -6 -4 -2
Months Before/After Economy Peak (0)
10
12
14
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Standard and Poors
November 6, 2009
13
Household Net Worth Losses
Nearly $14 Trillion from Peak
Household Net Worth
70000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
20
04
Q
20 1
04
Q
20 2
04
Q
20 3
04
Q
20 4
05
Q
20 1
05
Q
20 2
05
Q
20 3
05
Q
20 4
06
Q
20 1
06
Q
20 2
06
Q
20 3
06
Q
20 4
07
Q
20 1
07
Q
20 2
07
Q
20 3
07
Q
20 4
08
Q
20 1
08
Q
20 2
08
Q
20 3
08
Q
20 4
09
Q
1
Billions of Dollars
65000
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
November 6, 2009
14
Lost Decade:
Industrial Production Drops to 1998 Levels
Production Dropped 15% Over 6 Quarters
US Total Industrial Production Index
2000-01 Average = 100
115
110
105
100
95
90
19
98
19 Q1
98
19 Q3
99
19 Q1
99
20 Q3
00
20 Q1
00
20 Q3
01
20 Q1
01
20 Q3
02
20 Q1
02
20 Q3
03
20 Q1
03
20 Q3
04
20 Q1
04
20 Q3
05
20 Q1
05
20 Q3
06
20 Q1
06
20 Q3
07
20 Q1
07
20 Q3
08
20 Q1
08
20 Q3
09
Q
1
85
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
November 6, 2009
15
Record Drop in Manufacturing Activity
ISM Manufacturing Index
60
55
50
45
40
Ja
n-
06
Ap
r-0
6
Ju
l-0
6
O
ct
-0
Ja 6
n07
Ap
r-0
7
Ju
l-0
O 7
ct
-0
Ja 7
n08
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
O
ct
-0
Ja 8
n09
35
30
Source: Institute for Supply Management
November 6, 2009
16
Non-Manufacturing Dropped
Faster Than Manufacturing
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index
Ja
n-
06
Ap
r-0
6
Ju
l-0
6
O
ct
-0
Ja 6
n07
Ap
r-0
7
Ju
l-0
O 7
ct
-0
Ja 7
n08
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
O
ct
-0
Ja 8
n09
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Source: Institute for Supply Management
November 6, 2009
17
Kick Them While Their Down
Housing Falls 55% in Seven Months
U.S. Housing Starts in Thousands
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,078
1,000
800
600
488
400
200
Ja
n0
Fe 7
b0
M 7
ar
-0
Ap 7
r-0
M 7
ay
-0
Ju 7
n07
Ju
l-0
Au 7
g0
Se 7
p07
O
ct
-0
N 7
ov
-0
7
D
ec
-0
Ja 7
n0
Fe 8
b0
M 8
ar
-0
Ap 8
r-0
M 8
ay
-0
Ju 8
n08
Ju
l-0
Au 8
g0
Se 8
p08
O
ct
-0
N 8
ov
-0
8
D
ec
-0
Ja 8
n0
Fe 9
b0
M 9
ar
-0
Ap 9
r-0
9
0
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics
November 6, 2009
18
Retail Sales Lost Four Years of
Growth in Just Four Months
U.S. Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars, SAAR
390000
380000
370000
360000
350000
340000
330000
320000
310000
Ju
l-0
9
09
Ap
r-
Ja
n09
Ju
l-0
8
O
ct
-0
8
08
Ap
r-
Ja
n08
Ju
l-0
7
O
ct
-0
7
07
Ap
r-
Ja
n07
Ju
l-0
6
O
ct
-0
6
06
Ap
r-
Ja
n06
Ju
l-0
5
O
ct
-0
5
05
Ap
r-
Ja
n05
Ju
l-0
4
O
ct
-0
4
04
Ap
r-
Ja
n04
300000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
November 6, 2009
19
FY
19
85
19
8
FY 6
19
8
FY 7
19
8
FY 8
19
8
FY 9
19
9
FY 0
19
9
FY 1
19
9
FY 2
19
9
FY 3
19
9
FY 4
19
9
FY 5
19
9
FY 6
19
9
FY 7
19
9
FY 8
19
9
FY 9
20
0
FY 0
20
0
FY 1
20
0
FY 2
20
0
FY 3
20
0
FY 4
20
0
FY 5
20
0
FY 6
20
0
FY 7
20
0
FY 8
20
09
FY
Wisconsin’s Sales Collections Drop
for the First Time Ever in FY2009
Percent Change in Wisconsin Sales Tax Collections
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
November 6, 2009
20
Ja
n
Ap 1 2
r 1 00
0
Ju 2 0
l 1 00
O 2
ct 0 0
Ja 1 2 0
n 00
Ap 1 2 0
r 1 00
1
Ju 2 0
l 1 01
O 2
ct 0 0
Ja 1 2 1
n 00
Ap 1 2 1
r 1 00
2
Ju 2 0
l 1 02
O 2
ct 0 0
Ja 1 2 2
n 00
Ap 1 2 2
r 1 00
3
Ju 2 0
l 1 03
O 2
ct 0
0
Ja 1 2 3
n 00
Ap 1 2 3
r 1 00
4
Ju 2 0
l 1 04
O 2
ct 0
0
Ja 1 2 4
n 00
Ap 1 2 4
r 1 00
5
Ju 2 0
l 1 05
O 2
ct 0 0
Ja 1 2 5
n 00
Ap 1 2 5
r 1 00
6
Ju 2 0
l 1 06
O 2
ct 0 0
Ja 1 2 6
n 00
Ap 1 2 6
r 1 00
7
Ju 2 0
l 1 07
O 2
ct 0 0
Ja 1 2 7
n 00
Ap 1 2 7
r 1 00
8
Ju 2 0
l 1 08
O 2
ct 0
0
Ja 1 2 8
n 00
Ap 1 2 8
r 1 00
9
Ju 2 0
l 1 09
20
09
Change over Prior Year $M
Consumers Paying Down Credit Cards
For the First Time, Revolving Credit is Dropping
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
-20000
-40000
-60000
-80000
-100000
November 6, 2009
21
Household Debt Service Down to 2001 Levels
Household Debt Service Pct of Disposable Income
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
November 6, 2009
q1
09
q3
08
q1
08
q3
07
q1
07
q3
06
q1
06
q3
05
q1
05
q3
04
q1
04
q3
03
q1
03
q3
02
q1
02
q3
01
q1
01
q3
00
00
q1
11.0
22
20
20 00
20 00 I
20 00 I I
0 -II
200-IVI
20 01
20 01 -I
20 01 -II
0 -II
201-IVI
20 02
20 02 -I
20 02 -II
02 -III
20 -IV
20 03
20 03 I
20 03 I I
0 -II
203-IVI
20 04
20 04 I
20 04 -II
0 -II
204-IVI
20 05
20 05 I
20 05 -II
0 -II
205-IVI
20 06
20 06 I
20 06 -II
0 -II
206-IVI
20 07
20 07 -I
20 07 -II
0 -II
207-IVI
20 08
20 08 -I
20 08 -II
0 -II
208-IVI
20 09
20 09 I
09 I I
-II
I
Year over Year Change $M
Saving More
Change in Net Savings
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
November 6, 2009
23
Wisconsin’s Income Taxes Drop for 1st Time
Aside from an ATB Tax Cut
Pct. Change in Wisconsin Individual Income Tax Collections
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Yellow Bars are years of income tax
rate reductions
-10%
FY
19
8
FY 6
19
8
FY 7
19
8
FY 8
19
8
FY 9
19
9
FY 0
19
9
FY 1
19
9
FY 2
19
9
FY 3
19
9
FY 4
19
9
FY 5
19
9
FY 6
19
9
FY 7
19
9
FY 8
19
9
FY 9
20
0
FY 0
20
0
FY 1
20
0
FY 2
20
0
FY 3
20
0
FY 4
20
0
FY 5
20
0
FY 6
20
0
FY 7
20
0
FY 8
20
09
-15%
November 6, 2009
24
Wisconsin Was Not the
Epicenter of the Recession
10 States Set Unemployment Records in 2009
But Not Wisconsin
State Unemployment Rate
Relative to State Record High
More than 1% Below Record Level (36)
State Record Set in 2009
(10)
Within 1% of Record High Aug 2009 (5)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
26
Wisconsin Economy Grew in 2008
Real GDP Per Capita, 2008
Pct Change
Over 1% (16)
0% to 1% (10)
-1% to 0% (12)
Below -1% (12)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 6, 2009
27
2008 Economic Growth
Wisconsin Only Great Lakes State to Expand in 2008
Real GDP Per Capita, 2008
Pct Change
Over 1%
0% to 1%
-1% to 0%
Below -1%
November 6, 2009
(16)
(10)
(12)
(12)
28
Wisconsin Has Moved Up to the
Great Lakes Average in GDP
Per Capita Real GDP
36,000
35,500
Wisconsin
GREAT LAKES
35,000
34,500
34,000
33,500
33,000
32,500
32,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 6, 2009
29
And Nudged Ahead of the
Great Lakes Average in Income
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Percent of Great Lakes Average
Wisconsin Per Capita Personal Income
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 6, 2009
30
Wisconsin Housing Prices Declined
Only Slightly
Housing Prices
FHFA Index 1st Qtr 2009
Over 0%
(4)
-1% to 0%
(6)
-3% to -1%
(8)
-5% to -3% (13)
-10% to -5% (14)
Below -10% (6)
November 6, 2009
Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority
31
Wisconsin Housing Prices
Weakness In SE Corner and North of Highway 29
November 6, 2009
32
This is Now…
The Recovery Has Started
Substantial Growth In Third Quarter
Real GDP Growth
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis; Forecast--Global Insight, Inc.
November 6, 2009
q4
10
q3
20
10
q2
20
10
q1
20
10
q4
20
09
q3
20
09
q2
20
09
q1
20
09
q4
20
08
q3
20
08
q2
20
08
q1
20
08
q4
20
07
q3
20
07
q2
20
07
q1
07
q4
20
06
q3
20
06
q2
20
06
q1
20
06
20
Forecast
Actual
-8
20
Pct Change At Annual Rates
6
Shaded area indicates period of recession
34
Industrial Production Up Three Straight
Months First Time Since 2007
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
Ja
n0
M 6
ar
M 06
ay
-0
Ju 6
lS e 06
p0
N 6
ov
-0
Ja 6
n0
M 7
ar
M 07
ay
-0
Ju 7
lS e 07
p0
N 7
ov
-0
Ja 7
n0
M 8
ar
M 08
ay
-0
Ju 8
lS e 08
p0
N 8
ov
Ja 08
n0
M 9
ar
M 09
ay
-0
Ju 9
lS e 09
p09
Monthly Percent Change
Industrial Production Index
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
November 6, 2009
35
Manufacturing Moves To Recovery
ISM Manufacturing Index
60
55
50
Ja
n0
Ap 6
r-0
Ju 6
l-0
O 6
ct
Ja 06
n0
Ap 7
r-0
Ju 7
l-0
O 7
ct
Ja 07
n0
Ap 8
r-0
Ju 8
l-0
O 8
ct
-0
Ja 8
n0
Ap 9
r-0
Ju 9
l-0
O 9
ct
-0
9
45
40
35
30
Source: Institute for Supply Management
November 6, 2009
36
So Does Non-Manufacturing
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index
Ja
n0
Ap 6
r-0
Ju 6
l-0
O 6
ct
Ja 06
n0
Ap 7
r-0
Ju 7
l-0
O 7
ct
Ja 07
n0
Ap 8
r-0
Ju 8
l-0
O 8
ct
-0
Ja 8
n0
Ap 9
r-0
Ju 9
l-0
O 9
ct
-0
9
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Source: Institute for Supply Management
November 6, 2009
37
Equity Markets Have Recovered from
Early Year Losses
S&P 500 Index--Percent Change From January 1
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
1/
1
1/
15
1/
29
2/
12
2/
26
3/
12
3/
26
4/
9
4/
23
5/
7
5/
21
6/
4
6/
18
7/
2
7/
16
7/
30
8/
13
8/
27
9/
10
9/
24
10
/8
10
/2
2
-30%
Source: Standard & Poors
November 6, 2009
38
20
04
Q
20 1
04
Q
20 2
04
Q
20 3
04
Q
20 4
05
Q
20 1
05
Q
20 2
05
Q
20 3
05
Q
20 4
06
Q
20 1
06
Q
20 2
06
20 Q3
06
Q
20 4
07
Q
20 1
07
Q
20 2
07
Q
20 3
07
Q
20 4
08
Q
20 1
08
Q
20 2
08
Q
20 3
08
Q
20 4
09
Q
20 1
09
Q
2
Billions of Dollars
Household Net Worth Increased in
2009 2nd Quarter
Household Net Worth
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
November 6, 2009
39
Housing Crawling Out of the Bottom
Housing Starts in Thousands
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
p09
Se
l-0
9
Ju
-0
9
ay
M
M
ar
-0
9
n09
Ja
08
ov
N
Se
p08
l-0
8
Ju
-0
8
ay
M
M
ar
-0
8
n08
Ja
07
ov
N
p07
Se
l-0
7
Ju
-0
7
ay
M
M
ar
-0
7
Ja
n07
0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
40
Retail Sales On the Rise
390000
380000
370000
360000
350000
340000
330000
320000
310000
Ju
l-0
9
09
Ap
r-
Ja
n09
Ju
l-0
8
O
ct
-0
8
08
Ap
r-
Ja
n08
Ju
l-0
7
O
ct
-0
7
07
Ap
r-
Ja
n07
Ju
l-0
6
O
ct
-0
6
06
Ap
r-
Ja
n06
Ju
l-0
5
O
ct
-0
5
05
Ap
r-
Ja
n05
Ju
l-0
4
O
ct
-0
4
04
Ap
r-
Ja
n04
300000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
November 6, 2009
41
Wisconsin Employment Stabilizing
3-Month Change in Employment at Annual Rates
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
n07
Ap
r-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
O
ct
-0
7
Ja
n08
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
O
ct
-0
8
Ja
n09
Ap
r-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
-0
6
6
O
ct
l-0
Ju
r-0
6
Ap
Ja
n06
US
WI ES
WI HS
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
42
Wisconsin Unemployment
Improves Relative to US
Percent of Labor Force Unemployed, Seasonally Adjusted
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
O
ct
2
00
9
9
Ju
l2
00
9
00
r2
Ap
20
n
Ja
O
ct
2
00
09
8
8
Ju
l2
00
8
00
r2
Ap
20
n
Ja
O
ct
2
00
08
7
7
Ju
l2
00
7
00
r2
Ap
Ja
n
20
07
US
WI
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
43
Still Below Historic High
Unemployment During Wisconsin’s
Two Worst Post-War Recessions
Wisconsin Unemployment Rate
1981-1984
2007-2009
12
10
8
6
4
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
8
10
6
4
2
2
0
Percent of Labor Force
14
Months After Start of Recession
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 6, 2009
44
Impact of Recession Varies Substantially by County
November 6, 2009
45
It Will Be A Long Road Back
Financial Crisis Still In The Background
Spread Between BAA Corporate Bonds and Long-Term Treasuries
6
2007-09
Average
4
3
2
1
November 6, 2009
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-1
0
-1
2
-1
4
-1
6
0
-1
8
Precent
5
47
Full Recovery Will Not Be Complete
Until 1st Qtr 2011
14000
13800
13600
13400
2007Q4 Real GDP
13200
13000
12800
12600
Forecast
Actual
20
07
Q
20 1
07
Q
20 2
07
Q
20 3
07
Q
20 4
08
Q
20 1
08
Q
20 2
08
Q
20 3
08
Q
20 4
09
Q
20 1
09
Q
20 2
09
Q
20 3
09
Q
20 4
10
Q
20 1
10
Q
20 2
10
Q
20 3
10
Q
20 4
11
Q
20 1
11
Q
20 2
11
Q
20 3
11
Q
4
12400
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES); US Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 6, 2009
48
Job Recovery Takes Even Longer
Employment Losses More Severe Than Output Losses
Cumulative Change From 4th Quarter 2007
8.0%
Employment
Real GDP
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
Actual
Forecast
20
07
:q
20 4
08
:q
20 1
08
:q
20 2
08
:q
20 3
08
:q
20 4
09
:q
20 1
09
:q
20 2
09
:q
20 3
09
:q
20 4
10
:q
20 1
10
:q
20 2
10
:q
20 3
10
:q
20 4
11
:q
20 1
11
:q
20 2
11
:q
20 3
11
:q
20 4
12
:q
20 1
12
:q
20 2
12
:q
20 3
12
:q
4
-6.0%
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES); US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight
November 6, 2009
49
Wisconsin will Match or
Outpace US growth in 2010.
GDP:
Wisconsin Matches US in 2009
Outperforms in 2010
Percent Change Over Prior Year
Real GDP
4
3
2
1
US
WI
0
-1
-2
-3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
November 6, 2009
2010
2011
2012
51
Wisconsin Employment Prospects
Improve in 2010
% Chg Over Prior Year
Employment Growth
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
United States
Wisconsin
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
November 6, 2009
2010
2011
2012
52
Net Hiring Resumes Early 2010
Wisconsin Employment Growth
Percent Change at Annual Rates
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
09
09
09
09
08
08
08
08
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
November 6, 2009
53
November 6, 2009
Wisconsin
2009
Wausau
2008
Sheboygan
Racine
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
OshkoshNeenah
MilwaukeeWaukesha-
Madison
La Crosse
Janesville
Green Bay
Fond du
Lac
Eau Claire
Appleton
Employment Growth in
Metropolitan Areas of Wisconsin
2010
-4%
-5%
-6%
54
November 6, 2009
Wisconsin
Wausau
Sheboygan
2009
Racine
OshkoshNeenah
2008
Milwaukee
14%
Madison
La Crosse
Janesville
Green Bay
Fond du Lac
Eau Claire
Appleton
Regional Unemployment Rates
2008-2010
16%
2010
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
55
-4.0%
November 6, 2009
Wisconsin
Wausau
Sheboygan
Racine
OshkoshNeenah
Milwaukee
Madison
La Crosse
Janesville
2009
Green Bay
Fond du Lac
Eau Claire
Appleton
Personal Income Growth
By MSA, 2009-2010
3.0%
2010
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
56
Wisconsin Better Off Than Its
Critics Realize
Wisconsin Among States with an Unemployment
Rate Significantly Below US Average
State Unemployment Rate
Relative To US Average
Significantly Low er (27)
About the Same
(15)
Significantly Higher (9)
November 6, 2009
58
Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Lowest
in the Great Lakes Region
State Unemployment Rates
September 2009
Under 5%
(3)
5% to 6.9%
(8)
7% to 8.9%
(18)
9% to 9.9%
(7)
10% or Higher (14)
November 6, 2009
59
BLS Reports Wisconsin in Top Half For
Median Wage Rates
Median Wage Rate
May 2008
Over $16 per hour
(18)
$15 to $16 per hour
(6)
$14 to $15 per hour
(15)
Less than $14 per hour (12)
November 6, 2009
60
Wisconsin Ranks 18th in
Median Household Income
Median Household Income
2007-2008 Average
Over $60,000
(9)
$50,000 to $60,000 (16)
$45,000 to $50,000 (14)
Less than $45,000 (11)
Source: US Bureau of the Census
November 6, 2009
61
Wisconsin Per Capita Income In a
Consistent Range
Wisconsin Per Capita Personal Income
100%
95%
90%
2
19 9
3
19 2
3
19 5
3
19 8
4
19 1
4
19 4
4
19 7
5
19 0
5
19 3
5
19 6
5
19 9
6
19 2
6
19 5
6
19 8
7
19 1
7
19 4
7
19 7
8
19 0
8
19 3
8
19 6
8
19 9
9
19 2
9
19 5
9
20 8
0
20 1
0
20 4
07
85%
19
Percent of US Average
105%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 6, 2009
62
Regional Price Parities (RPP)
Wisconsin Personal Income Nearly Identical to U.S. Once
Differences In Regional Prices are Recognized
Per Capita Personal Income
$38,000
$37,000
$36,000
$35,000
U.S.
Wisconsin
$34,000
$33,000
$32,000
$31,000
$30,000
2005 Current
Prices
2005 - RPP
2006 Current
Prices
November 6, 2009
2006 - RPP
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Survey of Current Business, Nov. 2008
63
Health Insurance Coverage
Wisconsin Ranks 4th in the Nation
Health Insurance Coverage
% Without Insurance
Less than 10% (9)
10% to 15% (24)
15% to 20% (14)
Over 20%
(4)
November 6, 2009
Source: US Bureau of the Census
64
Wisconsin Ranks 30th in Population Growth
Population Change
% Chg 2000-2008
Over 10%
6.2% to 10%
3.2% to 6.1%
0% to 3.2%
Less than 0%
(13)
(12)
(12)
(11)
(2)
Source: US Bureau of the Census
November 6, 2009
65
Wisconsin Has Net In-Migration
Total Migration 2000-2008
Net In-Migration (36)
Net Out-Migration (15)
Source: US Bureau of the Census
November 6, 2009
66
Wisconsin Ranks 18th in Business Taxes
Below the US Average
Business Taxes
Percent of State GDP
Less than 4.1%
4.2% to 4.6%
4.7% to 5.2%
5.2% to 5.9%
6.0% or more
(10)
(12)
(12)
(11)
(6)
U.S. Average 4.9%
Source: Ernst & Young, Total State and Local Business Taxes: 50 State Estimates for Fiscal Year 2008, January 2009
November 6, 2009
67