Missouri’s Panel Approach to Evaluate Farm-level Risks and Returns Brent Carpenter, Research Associate College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources University of Missouri—Columbia www.fapri.missouri.edu National Farm Management Conference June 12, 2007 Rochester, MN Outline Representative farms The modeling framework The panel process Sample baseline results Sample policy scenarios Successful outreach efforts Who We Are A consortium of researchers University of Missouri Iowa State University Texas A&M University National rep farms Texas Tech University Arizona State University University of Wisconsin Instituted by the U.S. Congress in 1984 International components What We Do World trade issues U.S. commodity markets Environmental modeling Transportation modeling Farm-level risks and returns We report to Congress, industry, public Outreach component Farm-level questions What is the present financial condition of farms? by type, by geography, by size, by . . . What does the future look like under alternative policies? Expected payments, revenues, costs, etc. Modeling a representative farm Size, structure, enterprises, output variability Long range price paths, price distributions, inflation factors Existing and proposed farm policy Rep Farm Projected financial statements and probabilities The rep farms 38 representative farms 200 active panel members Nodaway Atchison Farm numbers by type 10 Feedgrain-soybean 3 Rice and cotton 9 Crop-beef 4 Pork-crop 5 Beef 5 Dairy 2 Broiler-beef Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Camden Hickory Vernon Gasconade Dallas Cedar Washington Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Wayne Jasper Lawrence Scott Bollinger Christian Newton Douglas Stoddard Carter Howell Stone Mississippi Butler Barry Oregon Taney Ozark Ripley McDonald New Madrid Dunklin Pemiscot Shaded areas are home counties of panel members Panel process Model farms are built by like-producers to reflect their farm structure, yields, production practices, markets, resources, etc. Input data and simulation results are representative of the panel as a group. Rep farms are systems Accounting Whole-farm, usually Cash-basis, usually After-tax Advantage Useful to quantify changes and keep pulse of farm economy Handles range of possible outcomes Disadvantage Used alone, not always sound for isolating profitable management practices Receipts, sample crop-beef farm 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Cash income (net of share lease) 1 Cash receipts for crops 480,280 2 Cow-calf receipts 49,606 3 CCP payments 5,427 4 Fixed payments 22,785 5 LDP payments 28,853 6 Indemnity payments 0 7 Custom work 0 8 Total cash receipts $586,951 200,003 55,210 17,003 22,785 14,528 38,018 0 $347,547 426,998 52,281 12,859 22,785 491 0 0 $515,414 436,190 48,758 0 22,785 0 0 0 $507,733 451,945 45,864 0 22,785 0 0 0 $520,594 457,812 42,988 0 22,785 0 0 0 $523,585 Mean of 500 iterations shown Includes receipts from all farm business sources: commodity markets, government program payments, insurance indemnities, and custom work, if any. Static enterprise sizes (baseline). No off-farm income. Sample farm operating expenses Farm expenses (net of share lease) 9 Seed 10 Fertilizer 11 Crop chem 12 Custom hire 13 Hauling/drying/other harvest 14 Crop insurance premiums 15 Cash rent for cropland 16 Sum listed crop costs 2004 2005 2006 39,702 62,077 26,116 12,593 4,641 5,822 35,040 185,991 42,323 75,258 26,508 13,992 1,990 5,508 38,325 203,904 45,606 77,779 27,175 15,391 4,440 5,359 41,610 217,360 17 18 19 20 21 Cow-calf direct cost Cow-calf purchased feed and hay Purchased beef cattle Cash rent for pastureland Sum listed beef costs 5,779 3,903 2,040 5,092 16,814 6,139 4,274 2,277 5,896 18,586 6,408 4,136 2,232 6,700 19,476 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Hired labor RE and property taxes Accounting and legal Unallocated maintenance Utilities Whole farm fuel Farm insurance Miscellaneous Conservation work Sum unallocated overhead costs 12,458 5,840 1,196 25,305 1,932 14,843 5,071 374 470 67,489 12,711 6,259 1,253 26,434 2,535 19,475 5,313 394 494 74,868 13,057 6,421 1,305 27,327 2,739 21,049 5,533 408 512 78,351 32 Sum all listed costs 270,294 297,358 315,187 33 Gross margin 316,657 50,189 200,227 Selected costs of production projections From FAPRI econometrics, based on multiple sources Price Index, 1990-92 = 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 2004 2005 Family living (CPI) Fuels 2006 2007 Nitrogen Interest 2008 2009 2010 2011 Potash & phosphate Farm machinery Sample farm modified cash flow statement 2004 34 35 36 37 Beginning cash reserves Interest earned on reserve Gross margin Cash available 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 LT interest IT interest Op interest Carryover op interest Total interest expense LT principal payment IT principal payment Operating loan carryover Total debt reduction Cash difference on cap repl. Federal income taxes Missouri income taxes Self-employment taxes Total taxes 52 2005 2006 0 0 316,657 316,657 120,964 1,158 50,189 172,311 26,991 267 200,227 227,485 28,130 11,259 15,728 0 55,117 22,308 35,766 0 58,074 375 25,106 8,621 15,400 49,127 26,234 9,056 11,213 0 46,503 24,205 39,721 0 63,926 774 0 0 0 0 24,177 9,337 17,878 0 51,392 26,262 49,638 0 75,900 0 0 881 3,145 4,026 Sum listed cash demands 162,693 111,203 131,318 53 Return to family living 153,964 (61,014) 68,909 54 Annual owner withdrawal 33,000 34,117 35,232 55 Annual net earnings 120,964 (95,131) 33,677 56 Cumulative cash position 120,964 26,991 60,935 Nodaway Atchison Worth Harrison Barton County crop-beef farm Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Camden Hickory Vernon Gasconade Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Dallas Cedar Washington Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Wayne Jasper Lawrence Scott Bollinger Christian Newton Douglas Stoddard Carter Howell Stone Mississippi Butler Barry Oregon Taney Ozark Ripley McDonald New Madrid Dunklin Pemiscot CHARACTERISTICS FINANCIALS (2007-11) 2385 acres operated 79% owned 19% share leased 2% cash leased Operator assets (market) Return on oper. assets Term debt capacity (median) 150 beef cows, raise steers to 700 lbs Crop 1800 acres, plant 2400 Dryland corn 360 acres Irrigated corn 160 acres Grain sorghum 180 acres st Soybeans (1 ) 500 acres Wheat 600 acres Dry DC beans 440 acres Irrigated DC beans 160 acres Grass hay Pasture 185 acres 370 acres Cash risk score (20%) $ 4.4 mil 10.1 % ~ 43 % Low Low Net cash farm income Operating exp/receipts Gov payments/receipts $ 325,000 62 % 8.0 % 2007 net returns 2011 net returns $ 143,000 $ 119,300 Costs and returns per acre Barton County 1800 acres + 150 beef cows $400 Annual returns, $ per acre 2004 2005 2006 82 40 26 2007 61 2008 53 2009 55 2010 56 2011 50 Average 55 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 2004 Receipts 2005 2006 2007 Operating expenses 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total costs no operator draw Baseline, Jan 2007 Operator costs and returns per acre 10 feedgrain rep farms, averaged 2007-2011 Feedgrain-soybean farms $600 $500 $400 78 $300 104 $200 $100 198 $0 NWFG2500 NWFG2300 NCFG890 NCFG2050 Operating expenses NCFG3630 NEFG2600 NEFG2300 NEFG1300 WCFG1800 SWFG1100 Debt service, taxes, cap. replacement Average Cash margin Baseline, Jan 2007 Cash risk ratings for feedgrain group Farm Region Crop acres 1 NW 2500 2 NW 2300 3 NC 890 4 NC 2050 5 NC 3630 6 NE 2600 7 NE 2300 8 NW 1300 9 WC 1800 10 SW 1100 Low 2007-08 Moderate 25% 2009-2011 High 50% Severe 75% Baseline, Jan 2007 Operator costs and returns per cow Average of 5 cow-calf rep farms Cow-calf farms $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 2004 Receipts 2005 2006 2007 2008 Operating expenses 2009 2010 2011 Total costs, no draw Baseline, Jan 2007 Operator costs and returns per cwt Average of 1250 and 1500 sow farrow-to-finish farms Multi-site farrow-t0 finish farms $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 2004 2005 Receipts 2006 2007 2008 Operating expense 2009 2010 2011 Total cost, no draw Baseline, Jan 2007 Operator costs and returns per cwt Osage County 200 sows + 125 beef cows + crop acres Diversified farrow-to-finish—family labor $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 2004 2005 Receipts 2006 2007 2008 Operating expense 2009 2010 2011 Total cost, no draw Baseline, Jan 2007 Operator costs and returns per house Average of two broiler-beef farms 4 and 6 house broiler farms—different integrators $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2003 2004 Receipts 2005 2006 2007 Operating costs 2008 2009 2010 Total costs, no draw Baseline, Jan 2007 Dairy costs and returns per cwt. $20 0.51 $15 2.85 $10 12.77 $5 $0 -$5 ECDY150 SWDY85 Operating expenses SWDY110 SWDY400 SWDY230 Debt service, taxes, cap replacement Avg Cash margin Baseline, Jan 2007 Cash risk trend, nearby 2 years Low Moderate 25% Feedgrain & Soy Cotton & Rice High 50% CropBeef Severe 75% PorkCrop Beef Farms Dairy Farms 100% 50% 0% Nearby, two-year outlook for successive baseline projections: 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. Baseline, Jan 2007 Dairy farms: term debt capacity, median risk 30 $800 Percent of Operator Assets 25 $600 20 $500 15 $400 $300 10 $200 5 $100 0 $0 ECDY150 SWDY85 SWDY110 SWDY400 SWDY230 Farm Debt Capacity (X $1000) $700 Debt vs. cash flow risk for sample farm Term debt capacity is 40 percent, mkt value, oper. assets Given the five year outlook, IF the farm has 20 percent term debt on Jan 1, 2007, THEN the probability of generating cash to meet all obligations is 83 percent. Probability of Cashflow 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 Term Debt to Asset Ratio Entering Outlook 100 Administration's farm bill proposal Baseline The administration’s proposal would make relatively small adjustments to direct payment rates and loan rates. The current counter cyclical program, would be triggered by revenue rather than price. Changes are not quite as simple as the table implies. Direct payment rates Corn, $ per bu Wheat, $ per bu Soybeans, $ per bu Rice, $per cwt Upland cotton, $ per lb Proposal 0.28 0.52 0.44 2.35 0.0667 0.28 to .30 0.52 to .56 0.47 to .50 2.35 to $2.52 0.1108 Loan rates (average of 500 outcomes) Corn, $ per bu 1.95 Wheat, $ per bu 2.75 Soybeans, $ per bu 5.00 Rice, $per cwt 6.50 Upland cotton, $ per lb 0.5200 1.89 2.58 4.92 6.50 0.4185 to .4724 Countercyclical revenue trigger Corn Soybeans Wheat Upland cotton Rice $/acre 344.11 219.74 140.39 517.00 548.05 Northeast 2600 crop acres Plant 1250 corn, 1250 beans, 100 wheat Nodaway Atchison Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Hickory Vernon Gasconade Camden Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Dallas Cedar Washington Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Wayne Lawrence Christian Douglas Oregon Taney Ozark New Madrid Pemiscot 870 $1,000 865 860 855 850 845 840 835 Baseline 2011 Proposal Ripley Dunklin 875 2010 Mississippi Butler Barry McDonald Marketmarket Receipts receipts Whole-farm 2009 Stoddard Carter Howell Stone 2008 Scott Bollinger Newton Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Jasper 2012 Northeast MO 2600 crop acres Nodaway Atchison Plant 1250 corn, 1250 beans, 100 wheat Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Hickory Vernon Gasconade Camden Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Dallas Cedar Washington Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Wayne Jasper Lawrence Scott Bollinger Christian Newton Douglas Stoddard Carter Howell Stone Mississippi Butler Barry Oregon Taney Ozark Ripley McDonald New Madrid Dunklin Pemiscot Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Whole-farm direct payments Direct Payments 46 45 $1,000 44 43 42 41 40 39 2008 2009 2010 Baseline 2011 Proposal 2012 Northeast MO 2600 crop acres Nodaway Atchison Plant 1250 corn, 1250 beans, 100 wheat Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Hickory Vernon Gasconade Camden Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Dallas Cedar Washington Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Wayne Jasper Lawrence Scott Bollinger Christian Newton Douglas Stoddard Carter Howell Stone Mississippi Butler Barry Oregon Taney Ozark Ripley McDonald New Madrid Dunklin Pemiscot Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Marketing Loan Benefits Whole-farm marketing loan benefits 2.5 $1,000 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010 Baseline 2011 Proposal 2012 Northeast MO 2600 crop acres Nodaway Atchison Plant 1250 corn, 1250 beans, 100 wheat Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Hickory Vernon Gasconade Camden Dallas Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Cedar Washington Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Wayne Lawrence Christian Douglas Oregon Taney Pemiscot $1,000 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Baseline Proposal Ripley New Madrid 1.2 2011 Ozark Dunklin 1.4 2010 Mississippi Butler Barry McDonald Whole-farm countercyclical payments Countercyclical 2009 Stoddard Carter Howell Stone 2008 Scott Bollinger Newton Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Jasper 2012 Northeast MO 2600 crop acres Nodaway Atchison Plant 1250 corn, 1250 beans, 100 wheat Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Hickory Vernon Gasconade Camden Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Dallas Cedar Washington Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Wayne Lawrence Christian Douglas Oregon Taney Ozark New Madrid Pemiscot 400 $1,000 395 390 385 380 375 Baseline 2011 Proposal Ripley Dunklin 405 2010 Mississippi Butler Barry McDonald Whole-farm netNCFI cash farm income 2009 Stoddard Carter Howell Stone 2008 Scott Bollinger Newton Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Jasper 2012 Cotton farm 1600 acres 670 cotton + 610 beans + 270 rice + 50 milo (520 irrigated) Nodaway Atchison Worth Harrison Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Camden Hickory Vernon Washington Ste. Genevieve Phelps Pulaski Dallas Cedar Perry Laclede Dent Polk Whole-farm netNCFI cash farm income Gasconade Iron St. Francois Madison Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Wayne Jasper Lawrence Scott Bollinger Christian Newton Douglas Stoddard Carter Howell Stone Mississippi Butler Barry Oregon Taney Ozark Ripley McDonald New Madrid Dunklin Pemiscot 180 160 140 $1,000 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 Baseline 2011 Proposal 2012 Rice farm 2000 acres 630 rice + 640 beans +630 corn + 100 wheat-beans Nodaway Atchison Implications of three provisions of administration’s proposal Worth Harrison Scotland Schuyler Putnam Mercer Sullivan Gentry Adair Clark Knox Lewis Grundy Holt Daviess Andrew Macon Linn DeKalb Clinton Caldwell Chariton Buchanan Ralls Monroe Randolph Carroll Platte Marion Shelby Livingston Pike Ray Clay Audrain Saline Howard Lincoln Boone Montgomery Lafayette Jackson Callaway Cooper Johnson Pettis Warren St. Charles St. Louis Cass Moniteau Osage Cole Franklin Morgan Henry Benton Jefferson Bates Miller Maries St. Clair Crawford Camden Hickory Vernon Gasconade Pulaski Dallas Cedar Washington Ste. Genevieve Phelps Perry Laclede Dent Polk Iron St. Francois Madison Whole-farm net NCFI cash farm income Barton Texas Dade Webster Wright Cape Girardeau Reynolds Shannon Greene Wayne Jasper Lawrence Scott Bollinger Christian Newton Douglas Stoddard Carter Howell Stone Mississippi Butler Barry Oregon Taney Ozark Ripley McDonald New Madrid Dunklin Pemiscot 215 210 $1,000 205 200 195 190 185 2008 2009 2010 Baseline 2011 Proposal 2012 Extension Outreach Panel facilitators Direct to producer meetings Farm bill specific education Market outlook, risk management Over 1000 producers last year In service education and interactions with field faculty On our website… Find the latest reports at: www.fapri.missouri.edu