News Release 30 August 2004 JAMAICA: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS April 2004 (Preliminary) Preliminary balance of payments data for April 2004 suggest a current account surplus of US$12.4MN, relative to a deficit of US$62.6MN for April 2003. The positive current account balance reflected a contraction of US$58.3MN in the deficit on the goods sub-account, supported by respective expansions of US$14.0MN and US$21.0MN in the surpluses on the services and current transfers sub-accounts. Within the financial account, net private capital and net official investment inflows, were more than sufficient to finance the deficits on the capital account and current account. Consequently, there was a build up of US$173.0MN in the net international reserves of the Bank of Jamaica during the review period. Merchandise Trade The narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit resulted from an increase of US$39.5MN in the value of exports, complemented by a decline US$18.8MN in the value of imports (f.o.b.). Preliminary data available for April 2004, suggest that the growth in exports primarily reflected an expansion of earnings from crude material, principally alumina exports. Increased earnings from alumina export were associated with growth in both volume and price of the ore. The decline in expenditure on imports was related to contractions in the values of capital and consumer goods imports, in particular, machinery and transport equipment and food imports. Higher expenditure on fuel was a partial countervailing influence. Services The estimated expansion in the surplus on the services account principally reflected an increase of US$12.9MN in net receipts from the travel sub-account. Revenue from the travel sector is estimated to have benefited from an increase of US$14.9MN in tourism expenditures, partially offset by lower spending by Jamaicans travelling abroad. Foreign national stop over arrivals and cruise passengers, which recorded respective increases of 17.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent, were the main factors influencing the growth in travel receipts during the review month. However, the effect of visitor arrivals on net receipts from travel was partly offset by a 2.3 per cent decline in the average length of stay, relative to April 2003. Income The widening of the deficit on the income account in April 2004 was attributed to an estimated US$21.2MN increase in net investment outflows. Higher investment outflows were principally associated increased imputed profit remittances by the direct investment companies. Current Transfers An expansion of US$20.8MN in net inflows to the private sector largely accounted for the expansion in current transfers during the review period. This expansion in net private inflows reflected a US$27.1MN increase in gross inflows, partially offset by a US$6.3MN rise in outflows. Capital & Financial Accounts During the review period, respective deficits of US$11.3MN and US$1.1MN were recorded on the financial and capital accounts. This compares with a deficit of US$1.5 million on the capital account and a surplus of US$64.1 million on the financial account during April 2003. Within the financial account, net private inflows of US$49.0MN and net official inflows of US$112.7MN were more than sufficient to finance the deficits on the current and capital accounts. Consequently, there was a build up of US$173.0MN in the net international reserves of the Bank of Jamaica. At the end of April 2004, the level of gross reserves stood at US$1 769.7MN representing 25.9 weeks of imports of goods and 17.3 weeks of imports of goods and services. The following table shows the balance of payments for April 2004 and April 2003. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY (US$MN) Apr1/ Apr2/ 2003 2004 Change 1. CURRENT ACCOUNT -62.6 12.4 75.0 A. GOODS and SERVICES -114.3 -42.0 72.3 a. GOODS BALANCE -155.5 -97.2 58.3 Exports (f.o.b.) 110.00 149.5 39.5 Imports (f.o.b.) 265.5 246.7 -18.8 b. SERVICES BALANCE 41.2 55.2 14.0 Transportation -15.6 -12.2 3.4 Travel 91.0 103.9 12.9 Other Services -34.2 -36.5 -2.3 -31.3 -49.6 -18.3 0.6 3.5 2.9 Investment Income -31.9 -53.1 -21.2 C. CURRENT TRANSFERS 83 104 21.0 Official 7.1 7.3 0.2 Private 75.9 96.7 20.8 62.6 -12.4 -75.0 B. INCOME Compensation of employees 2. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. CAPITAL ACCOUNT -1.5 -1.1 0.4 a. Capital Transfers -1.5 -1.1 0.4 Official 0.0 0.0 0.0 Private -1.5 -1.1 0.4 b. Acq./disposal of non-prod. non-fin'l assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 64.1 -11.3 -75.4 Other official investment -12.8 112.7 125.5 Other private investment 3/ 99.3 49.0 -50.3 Reserves -22.4 -173 1/ Revised 2/ Provisional 3/ Includes errors & omissions BANK OF JAMAICA 16-Aug-04