East Stroudsburg University Environmental Scan and Five-Year Budget Projection January 28, 2011 Presented by: Donna R. Bulzoni, CPA, MBA Director of Financial Affairs & Controller TABLE OF CONTENTS Environmental Scan Introduction …………………………………….. 3 Overview ………………………………………... 4 National Outlook ………………………………. 5-9 Pennsylvania Outlook ………………………… 10-11 Monroe County Outlook & Demographics... 12-13 Government ……………………………………. 14-18 Economic Development ……………………… 19-20 Facilities ………………………………………… 21-23 Financial Resources ………………………….. 24-33 Concerns / Issues…………………………………….. 34 5-Year Budget Projection …………………………… 35-36 Acknowledgements ………………………………….. 37 Page 2 of 37 East Stroudsburg University Environmental Scan Introduction As the University considers its financial position for Fiscal Year 2011-12 and beyond, it is appropriate to give careful consideration to the environment in which we exist. Our environment is constantly changing and poses opportunities and threats which should be considered as an integral part of our planning process. The Environmental Scan presented herein is a product of a campus-wide effort involving constituents from across campus in collaboration with representatives from the East Stroudsburg University Foundation and the Office of the Chancellor. No formal SWOT Analysis was prepared this year. For this and future years, issues/concerns will be presented with a SWOT Analysis prepared only in the final year of the University’s Strategic Plan. Page 3 of 37 Overview According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recent recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. The recession’s duration of 18 months makes it the longest recession since the Great Depression. In addition, many believe structural changes in the economy have increased the natural (or full employment) rate of employment, which will move the economy onto a lower long-run growth trajectory. This means states’ budget woes will not diminish in 2012 but they will continue to struggle to find revenue needed to support critical public services for a number of years. While it is clear the University is financially strong, it is equally clear that our real fiscal challenge is upon us as we prepare our budget for Fiscal Year 2011-12. American Reinvestment and Recovery Act funding is no longer available, state appropriation is uncertain given the inauguration of a new Governor and we are facing a projected budget gap even when assuming we receive as much in state appropriation as we have in Fiscal Year 2010-11. Page 4 of 37 National Outlook According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the recent recession caused a state fiscal crisis of unprecedented severity. States’ fiscal conditions remain extremely weak even as the economy appears to be moving in the direction of recovery. Recovery is expected to be slow, however, due to the waning of federal stimulus funds and constrained spending by households as a result of slow growth of income, lost wealth, and limits on their ability to borrow. This is coupled with slowed investment spending due to the large number of vacant homes and offices. According to “States Continue to Feel Recession’s Impact”, (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, December 16, 2010), new shortfalls have opened up in the budgets of 11 states for the current fiscal year resulting in 46 states reporting budget shortfalls (FY 2011, which began July 1 in most states). In addition, initial indications are that 44 states and the District of Columbia will face shortfalls totaling $125 billion for Fiscal Year 2012 (See Figure 1 and Table 1). Page 5 of 37 Arizona California* Colorado Connecticut District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky* Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina Ohio Oklahoma Oregon* Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia* Washington West Virginia Wisconsin States Total TABLE 1: STATES WITH PROJECTED FY2012 GAPS FY12 Projected Shortfall Shortfall as Percent of FY11 Budget $974 million 11.5% $25.4 billion 29.3% $988 million 13.8% $3.7 billion 20.8% DK na $3.6 billion 14.9% $1.7 billion 10.3% $410 million 8.2% $300 million 12.6% $15.0 billion 44.9% $270 million 2.0% $294 million 5.6% $492 million 8.8% $780 million 9.1% $1.7 billion 22.0% $436 million 16.1% $1.6 billion 12.2% $1.8 billion 5.7% $1.8 billion 8.6% $3.9 billion 24.5% $634 million 14.1% $1.1 billion 14.4% $80 million 4.3% $314 million 9.2% $1.5 billion 45.2% DK na $10.5 billion 37.4% $410 million 7.6% $9.0 billion 16.9% $3.8 billion 20.0% $3.0 billion 11.0% $600 million 11.3% $1.8 billion 25.0% $4.5 billion 17.8% $290 million 9.9% $877 million 17.4% $127 million 10.9% DK Na $13.4 billion 31.5% $437 million 9.2% $150 million 13.9% $2.3 billion 14.8% $2.9 billion 18.5% $155 million 4.1% $1.8 billion 12.8% $124.7 billion 20.0% Note: Kentucky and Virginia have two-year budgets. They closed their FY2012 shortfalls when they enacted their budgets for the FY2011-FY2012 biennium. California’s shortfall includes an $8.2 billion shortfall carried forward from FY2011. Oregon’s shortfall is one half of the state’s total projected shortfall for the 2011-2013 biennium. Page 6 of 37 In an effort to fill current year budget gaps, at least 46 states plus the District of Columbia have reduced important services. More than 30 states have raised taxes to at least some degree while others have increased them significantly. With reserves largely depleted, if revenue remains depressed, additional cuts in services are likely. Page 7 of 37 Budget deficits are already projected for Fiscal Year 2012-13 for many states with Pennsylvania among them. Initial estimates of these shortfalls total almost $70 billion (See Table 2). TABLE 2: States with Projected FY2013 Gaps FY12 Shortfall as Projected Percent of FY11 Shortfall Budget Arizona $612 million 7.2% California $19.2 billion 22.2% Connecticut $3.6 billion 20.2% Florida DK na Hawaii $362 million 7.2% Louisiana $1.6 billion 20.6% Maine $368 million 13.6% Maryland $1.9 billion 14.8% Minnesota $2.0 billion 12.8% Montana $227 million 12.2% Nebraska $472 million 13.9% Nevada $1.5 billion 45.2% New DK na Hampshire New York $14.6 billion 27.4% Oregon* $1.8 billion 25.0% Pennsylvania $2.5 billion 9.9% Rhode Island $328 million 11.1% South Carolina $1.2 billion 22.9% Texas $13.4 billion 31.5% Vermont $126 million 11.7% Washington $2.9 billion 18.5% Wisconsin $1.7 billion 12.1% States Total $70.4 billion 21.1% Oregon’s shortfall is one half of the state’s total projected shortfall for the 2011-2013 biennium. Figure 2 shows recent estimates of the size and duration of the state deficits in the recession that occurred in the first part of this decade and the latest estimates of the likely deficits in our most recent recession (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, January 21, 2011). Page 8 of 37 Source: “States Continue to Feel Recession’s Impact”, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Jan. 21, 2011 Page 9 of 37 Pennsylvania Outlook Pennsylvania opened the current fiscal year with a $4.1B budget gap. The final Fiscal Year 2010-11 enacted budget assumed $2.8 billion of federal fiscal relief. This federal budgeting relief, however, was reduced by $280 million to $2.6 billion while $200 million of the $212 million proposed spending cuts were frozen based on the Governor’s request. The $70 million severance tax revenue from natural gas drilling in the Marcellus shale was not enacted. According to the “Commonwealth of Pennsylvania-2010-2011 Mid-year Briefing” dated December 16, 2010, revenues are on target. General fund revenue collections in the first 5 months of Fiscal Year 2010-2011 were $14 million, or 0.15 percent, above estimate. This increase is the result of corporation and consumption (sales & use) taxes coming in higher than budget while personal income and realty transfer taxes are somewhat down. While caution is still necessary, a Pew study of the fiscal status of the states ranked Pennsylvania seventh in the nation for fiscal stability when assessed against the factors that led to California’s acute budget crisis. Pennsylvania Is the Only Major Industrial State to Be Ranked in the Top 10 in a Recent Pew Study on State Fiscal Crises 1 Source: State Revenue Report, January 2010. Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, Albany, NY. Beyond California: States in Fiscal Peril. The Pew Center on the States, Washington, D.C., November 2009. The states highlighted as being most similar to California were those that Pew identified as being in the greatest fiscal peril when assessed against the factors that led to California’s acute financial distress. 2 Source: Page 10 of 37 The Commonwealth’s unemployment rate for November 2010 was 8.6%, down from 9.0% in September 2010. Since the national recession began in December 2007, Pennsylvania has held onto jobs better than many other large, competitor or neighboring states. As published in the “Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s 2010-11 Budget in Brief”, the Governor’s 2010-11 Budget Overview projected $29.03 Billion in General Fund Expenditures broken down as follows: General Fund Expenditures $26.6 Billion What does this mean to higher education, the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education, and most importantly, East Stroudsburg University? Looking further down the road, Pennsylvania anticipates a $2.5 billion shortfall in Fiscal Year 2012-2013. Local governments are also expected to face shortfalls. Given that a large portion of the Commonwealth’s budget is in education, cuts in state appropriation are possible. While cuts in Fiscal Year 2010-2011 were tempered by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds, we need to prepare ourselves for Fiscal Year 2011-12 when the federal dollars go away. Page 11 of 37 Monroe County Outlook & Demographics Northeastern Pennsylvania, Monroe County in particular, has seen steady population growth during the past several years while the remainder of Pennsylvania has been experiencing population stability or declines. This trend is likely to extend with ongoing population declines being likely for all but Northeastern Pennsylvania and perhaps some of those counties located in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Based on available data, it is also likely that the region will become increasingly diverse. Pennsylvania’s population is also older than the vast majority of the nation’s population. According to the Center for Workforce Information and Analysis “Economic Review of Pennsylvania 2007”, the number of Pennsylvanians age 65 and over was 1.9 million in 2007. The state’s percentage of those aged 65 and over is 15.3%, second only in the nation to Florida which has the highest percentage of those 65 and over. Interestingly, according to the U.S. Census 2008, only 12% of Monroe County’s population is 65 years of age or older while 24% is under 18 years of age. Pennsylvania’s total working age population (those aged 25 to 64) will be less than the year before until at least 2029. Therefore, there will be worker shortages in the coming years and some areas, industries, and occupations will be affected sooner and harder than others. Pennsylvania’s Education & Health Services, Professional & Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality industry sectors will account for nearly 90 percent of all annual employment growth through 2014. The education and health care industries are expected to dominate growth. East Stroudsburg University currently offers programs in all growth areas. The latest employment by industry data available for Monroe County, as per the American Community Survey (2008) follows. Note that the top three industries in Monroe County with the highest number of paid employees are retail trade, accommodation & food services, and health care & social assistance, as highlighted in yellow in the table that follows. Page 12 of 37 Employment by Industry in Monroe County, Pennsylvania in 2008 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1% Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade 10% 10% 3% 13% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 7% Information 2% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and 5% leasing Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste 8% management services Educational services, and health care and social 22% assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation, and food 12% services Other Services, except public administration 4% Public administration 3% Percent of employed people 16 years and over Source: American Community Survey, 2008 Monroe County, in particular, has a heavily tourist-based economy and will continue to use its scenic resources to provide recreational services for the Northeastern region of Pennsylvania. However, the county continues to encourage economic development by attracting new industries to the area. Pennsylvania’s manufacturing industry continues to shed jobs and its economy continues to adapt and transform itself from one of goods producing to service providing. It should be noted, Monroe County is not immune from the impact of the national economic crisis as evidenced by municipalities struggling to balance budgets, some through increased taxes. Page 13 of 37 Government Given East Stroudsburg University’s position as a member of the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education and a “state-owned” institution, trends in governmental activity are relevant to our future financial health. Slightly less than onethird of the University’s operating budget is derived from state appropriations, now approximately $26 million per year. Additionally, significant capital (building) funding also comes from the Commonwealth. Where once the University received approximately 2/3s of its operating budget through state appropriations, it now receives slightly less than 1/3 of its operating resources via state funding. For the past 15 years, appropriations have not kept pace with either student growth or increased costs due to inflation. The following graph shows PASSHE Appropriation per Student as adjusted for inflation in 2009 dollars for the period Fiscal Year 1999-2000 through Fiscal Year 2009-2010. Page 14 of 37 The burden of addressing these costs has been shifted to the students by increasing tuition. The following graph shows PASSHE revenue per student from state appropriation and tuition for the same time period. The following graph shows similar data in line plot form and compares appropriation versus tuition and fees only (the previous graph includes all other E&G revenue sources). Page 15 of 37 As a result of this shift, college affordability continues to decline. The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education’s Measuring Up 2008 Report gave 49 of 50 states, including Pennsylvania, a grade of F in higher education affordability. To follow is a graph taken from The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education’s Measuring Up 2008 Report depicting the percentage of income needed to pay for public two- and four-year colleges (Pennsylvania vs. United States vs. the median of the top five states). Page 16 of 37 Legend Pennsylvania United States Median of Top Five States There is uncertainty whether the state’s downward trend in support for Higher Education, and in particular the State System of Higher Education, will continue into the foreseeable future. In recent years, the exiting Governor focused his higher education funding efforts on community colleges. However, given the inauguration of our new Governor, it is difficult to predict his priorities. An additional issue of some importance to public higher education is the increased concern on the parts of the executive and legislative branches of government on accountability. Government expects public universities to run efficiently and to use the public funds provided as prudently as possible. Further, government expects results from the universities it funds in the form of well-trained students, who move expeditiously through their academic programs and become capable of contributing to the state’s economy. East Stroudsburg University and PASSHE have been successful in meeting these expectations, producing skilled, successful graduates. According to the most recent data available from the PASSHE Institutional Resources Office, more than 454,000 PASSHE alumni live and work in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The notion of “performance indicators” and “performance funding” grew out of the concern for accountability. PASSHE was one of the first and continues to be one of the few public university systems in the nation to voluntarily implement and continue performance funding. Since the program began in 2000, the Board of Governors has steadily increased the amount of funding available to the universities for improving their Page 17 of 37 performance, for outperforming their peers nationally and for meeting System goals. Approximately $27 million in performance funding dollars were awarded to the universities in the PASSHE in Fiscal Year 2010-11. It is anticipated that this amount will remain stable or grow slowly during the next 5 to 10 years. However, how an institution benefits from such funding in the future is uncertain as the methodology used to measure performance has changed recently. A review of the program was conducted resulting in improvements to ensure each University and the System as a whole continues to achieve desired outcomes. Changes center on improving student success, increasing access to PASSHE Universities and ensuring stewardship of public resources. During the earlier years, when performance funding was implemented, East Stroudsburg University had experienced a net loss in terms of the potential for performance funding allocations. This posture changed with improvement in our results from the indicators that produce revenue. However, when comparing this year’s allocation to prior years, it appears we may have reached a plateau and had begun a decline. The University is currently reviewing the new methodology used to allocate these resources and is developing a plan to ensure we maximize our revenue from this funding source. A cautious position would be to project level funding from this source so as not to produce revenue shortfalls from this tenuous source. The following graph shows a history of East Stroudsburg University’s performance funding allocation since inception of the program. Page 18 of 37 Economic Development East Stroudsburg University is an economic engine for Monroe County. It is well positioned as a major center for innovation, science and technology in northeastern Pennsylvania. The university is located 75 miles west of New York City and 85 miles northeast of Philadelphia, placing it in close proximity to the nation’s top global pharmaceutical and financial services companies. The university’s Research and Business Park, and Science and Technology Center are major attractions in bringing entrepreneurial businesses and educational opportunities to the region. In addition, the University is actively engaged in the Pocono Keystone Innovation Zone (PMKIZ) and is developing a 15-acre ESU Research and Business Park on University owned property. Phase I of the Park, a 51,000 sq. ft. Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, was completed in May 2011. The facility includes 11,000 sq. ft. of business accelerator space and wet labs to support start-up companies. The economic impact projection for Phase I of the project includes 595 jobs and $457M into the Monroe County economy. The ESU Business Accelerator Program and Entrepreneurial Leadership Center, located in the Park, are focusing on attracting start-up companies and providing entrepreneurial opportunities for students and faculty in numerous industry sectors including homeland security, financial services, biotechnology/life sciences, information technology, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing. These initiatives, supported by the creation of the University’s College of Business and Management, and Research and Economic Development Division, provide a strong foundation for regional alliances and academic opportunities which prepare students to serve, lead and succeed in a competitive global society. East Stroudsburg University’s contributions to regional economic development efforts are noteworthy. According to the most recent data available from PASSHE, East Stroudsburg University is the ninth largest employer in Monroe County, providing 806 jobs directly and creating a total employment impact of 1,206 jobs. The university generates more than $273.5 million annually in direct and indirect business stimulus in Pennsylvania, $109.9 million annually in Monroe County, and 18.3M in East Stroudsburg and Stroudsburg. This encompasses the impact spending by the institution, faculty, staff, students and visitors. Additionally, ESU is located on 256 acres located in East Stroudsburg Borough and Smithfield Township that are valued at $322M. ESU has been identified as a “best practice” model in community and economic development regionally and by the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. The success of the ESU Business Accelerator Program has led to the creation of nine high tech companies including one owned by an ESU graduate and one faculty-owned company. The Pocono Mountains Keystone Innovation Zone Program has resulted in Page 19 of 37 170 jobs retained, 54 businesses assisted, 70 student internship placements and $8.7M revenue leveraged by KIZ companies. In the area of sponsored projects and research, in FY 2009-2010, ESU faculty and staff submitted 119 external grants and contracts totaling $22M and successfully secured $3.4M. The Office of Sponsored Projects and Research worked with 161 faculty and staff and coordinated 153 proposals providing over $120,000 in support of faculty professional development. Workforce development initiatives included administering $231,070 in employee-training grants involving 27 businesses and training of over 1577 employees. The Entrepreneurial Leadership Center sponsors ESU’s Entrepreneurial Boot Camps and Student Business Plan Competitions. A total of 45 students representing 13 majors, and 13 faculty members participated in the Business Plan Competitions. Additionally, 14 faculty members participated in Entrepreneurship across the Colleges initiatives which involved over 452 students. Legislative appropriations supporting economic development initiatives at PASSHE universities across the Commonwealth totaled $5.4M from FY 2007-2008 through FY 2009-2010. ESU was awarded $562,000 to support the following economic development initiatives: ESU Web-Based Internship Network (WIN) ($90,000) ESU Entrepreneurial Leadership Center ($191,000) ESU Research and Business Park Infrastructure ($281,000) Additionally, ESU received two Keystone Innovation Grants totaling $291,598 to support the development of a PASSHE Technology Transfer and Commercialization Resource Network that will provide a strategic and integrated approach to protecting intellectual property and advancing faculty and student projects toward commercialization across the fourteen PASSHE universities. The grant has enabled PASSHE to partner with the Penn State Research Foundation (PSRF) to serve as the PASSHE Technology Transfer and Communication Office. Page 20 of 37 Facilities Analysis of our current space inventory, updated by Sightlines Inc. in 2009-2010, revealed an additional 5% of East Stroudsburg University’s total gross square footage has crossed into the 25 year threshold. Projects that are currently under construction or in design will begin to address this issue. Upon completion of these projects, the age of some of our buildings will decrease. Even though these projects will help decrease our age, many of our old buildings will remain. Since Fiscal Year 2008, our deferred maintenance backlog has increased from $18.3 million to $27.3 million according to data collected by Sightlines Inc. Given the Legislature reallocated the Key 93 Deferred Maintenance Funds, previously dedicated to PASSHE Universities, to other Commonwealth needs last fiscal year, this deferred maintenance backlog will grow at an accelerated rate unless other funding sources are identified for deferred maintenance requirements. Page 21 of 37 A new Campus Facilities Master Plan was approved by the Council of Trustees in April 2010. The center piece of this new Master Plan is a new Keystone Center which will house the library, the student center, the Hotel, Restaurant and Tourism program, the Computing and Communications Service department and various multicultural programs. This new building will be constructed in two phases on the site of the existing Center for Hospitality Management and the University Center. The student referendum for the student center portion of the new building passed in November 2010. The Office of Budget and the Governor released design funds for the first phase of the project on December 10, 2010. We expect the Department of General Services to select a design firm and the design to start in the second calendar quarter of 2011. The Campus Facilities Master Plan proposes that the University will continue to grow to a headcount of 8,500 students over the next 10 to 20 years. Growth is currently constrained due to the need for more student resident rooms and a need for additional classroom and faculty office space. However, projects are on the horizon to move us in the right direction. For example, the plans to Renovate Monroe Hall have finally been approved by the Borough of East Stroudsburg. The construction contracts have been advertised and bids are due in February 2011. Construction is expected to start in June 2011 and be completed in June 2012. Page 22 of 37 Additionally, University Properties Inc., an affiliated non-profit corporation, has contracted with Allen & O’Hara Development Corporation of Memphis, Tennessee, to design and construct 969 beds of new suite style student housing in two buildings northwest of the intersection of Normal and Smith Streets on the Campus. Construction started in September 2010 and is scheduled to be completed in December 2011 for occupancy in January 2012. When the new UPI student housing comes on-line, Hawthorn and Hemlock Residence Halls will be taken off-line. Hawthorn and Hemlock are scheduled to be demolished as part of a second phase of the UPI student housing projects for which construction is tentatively anticipated to start in May 2013. Parking continues to pose a challenge for the University. As a condition of the Borough’s approval of the first phase of the UPI Student Housing project, the University has agreed to implement a parking management plan to better manage, allocate and control parking and to possibly add parking if required. The Borough of East Stroudsburg is in the process of revising their zoning ordinance with respect to parking requirements for the University IU Zoning. The preliminary analysis of this draft ordinance indicates that it will require the University to construct 400 to 1,000 additional parking spaces before they will approve any future new construction projects. Surface parking spaces cost approximately $6,000 a space while a new parking garage is estimated to cost $15,000 to $20,000 per space. Although we can all agree that more convenient parking is desirable, there is no source of funds for new parking lots or garages except parking fees. Page 23 of 37 Financial Resources East Stroudsburg University is fiscally sound, receiving an unqualified opinion on its audited financial statements for Fiscal Year 2009-10. For the past four fiscal years, ESU has enjoyed increases in net assets as follows: The sources of the University’s operating revenues have been consistent and predictable. To follow is a Total Operating Revenues summary (in thousands) prepared by the University’s auditors, ParenteBeard, LLC, and presented to the University’s Council of Trustees on December 9, 2010. 2010 Tuition and fees, net Grants and contracts Sales and services of educational depts Auxiliary enterprises Other revenues Total 2009 2008 2007 $ 51,658 59% $ 49,561 60% $ 46,253 61% $ 43,585 59% 13,887 16% 11,497 14% 10,362 14% 12,804 17% 1,278 1% 19,634 23% 748 1% $ 87,205 1,452 2% 19,086 23% 703 1% $ 82,299 1,195 2% 16,927 22% 619 1% $ 75,356 1,053 1% 15,960 22% 687 1% $ 74,089 Page 24 of 37 As is the case with revenues, University operating expenditures have been consistent and predictable. To follow is a Total Operating Expenses summary (in thousands) prepared by the University’s auditors, ParenteBeard, LLC, and also presented to the University’s Council of Trustees on December 9, 2010. 2010 Instruction Research Public service Academic support Student services Institutional support Operations and maintenance of plant Depreciation Student aid Auxiliary enterprises Total $ 2009 44,969 1,065 1,913 11,641 8,614 16,145 39% 1% 2% 10% 8% 14% 7,602 6,105 3,434 12,516 7% 5% 3% 11% $ 114,004 $ 2008 42,560 1,237 1,592 10,063 8,170 16,653 39% 1% 2% 9% 7% 15% 8,234 5,623 2,844 12,171 8% 5% 3% 11% $ 109,147 $ 2007 40,637 1,276 1,264 7,077 8,155 16,272 41% 1% 1% 7% 8% 16% 7,160 3,827 2,790 12,300 7% 4% 3% 12% $ 100,758 $ $ 39,024 1,793 1,184 6,841 8,114 14,461 40% 2% 1% 7% 8% 15% 8,407 3,886 2,710 10,381 9% 4% 3% 11% 96,801 There are four core higher-level ratios that can provide information on the overall financial health of an institution: Primary Reserve Ratio, Viability Ratio, Return on Net Assets Ratio and Net Operating Revenues Ratio. Each of these ratios was calculated for East Stroudsburg University using data from our Fiscal Year 2009-10 financial statements. Although the ratios allow for the inclusion of component unit data, the results presented for ESU below do not. The resulting ratio values will be useful when assessing future prospects of the University as well as when implementing our strategic plan. Page 25 of 37 Four Core Higher-Level Ratios on the Overall Financial Health of the Institution Name of Ratio Primary Reserve Ratio ESU's Ratio Value What Does it Mean? .306x Can the institution retain expendable resources at the same rate of growth as its commitments? The implication for ESU is that we could cover 3 2/3 months (30.6% of 12 months) expenses from reserves. Net Operating Revenues Ratio 2.06% Return on Net Assets Ratio (24.75)% Viability Ratio .65 Explains how any surplus from operating activities affect the behavior of the other 3 core ratios. For ESU, the positive percentage indicates we had a surplus for this past fiscal year equal to 2.06% of our total Operating Revenues. A target of 2-4% is usually good. Determines if an institution is financially better off than in previous years by measuring total economic return. A return of 3-4% is usually good. The negative return is due to the need to raid reserves to fund large, unanticipated one-time expenditures. Used to determine the availability of expendable net assets to cover debt should the institution need to settle its obligations as of the balance sheet date. A ratio of 1:1 generally means sufficient expendable net assets are available to satisfy debt obligations. Enrollment trends/predictions During the past five years, undergraduate enrollment has increased at an average rate of 2.7% per year. Undergraduate headcount enrollment has increased 13.9% during this five-year period while undergraduate full-time-equivalent (FTE) enrollment has increased 14.3%. Graduate enrollment overall has been unchanged in this same five-year period. Graduate headcount is down 15.2% compared to five years ago but graduate full-timeequivalent (FTE) enrollment is up 3.9% indicating a shift in enrollment patterns. Page 26 of 37 Taking the same undergraduate growth rate into the future and holding graduate enrollment at the five year average level of 1,110, we would have a university in 2015 with 7,280 undergraduate students and 1,110 graduate students for a total enrollment of 8,390. Continuing this pattern five more years to 2020 we would have 8,317 undergraduate students and 1,110 graduate students for a total of 9,427. An area of concern is the beginning of the decline in the annual number of high school graduates in Pennsylvania. Projections indicate the total number peaked in 2008-2009 and will decline for at least the next five years. The following is a graph of Pennsylvania high school graduates, actual versus projected, for the period 1990 through 2016. Source: Institutional Research Office, Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education While the graduation numbers are expected to increase in Monroe County and some surrounding areas through 2013, recent teacher layoffs in the region are an early indicator of the expected decline. The drop in high school graduation numbers throughout most of Pennsylvania also means other colleges and universities are now more actively recruiting students in our region and in our traditional recruitment areas. This presents new challenges for the university. The current economic recession is also an area of concern because this may prevent some students from affording to attend any college even though it may also have the effect of bringing us students who cannot afford more expensive institutions. There have also been changes in the enrollment patterns of students. They are changing their plans later in the process so university registration numbers are more Page 27 of 37 unpredictable. They register at a later date than in the past but are then registering for more credits. Therefore, the university needs to be extremely strategic and comprehensive about overall student enrollment management. The university’s enrollment goals have been loosely organized around a sense of our potential for growth, which is great, tempered by the desire to retain the intimate instructional atmosphere that has characterized the university for many years. When the university last completed a master plan, the figure settled on for total enrollment was 8,500 over a 10-15 year period. While unofficial annual projections have been for 1% growth in undergraduates and to allow graduate enrollment to float naturally as capacity for graduates is less constricted, in six of the last seven years, enrollment increases have exceeded those projections. While it is important that issues relative to the University’s enrollment goals receive the broadest possible input, it is appropriate to continue a trend of assuming cautious enrollment growth while these discussions begin. For financial purposes it is assumed enrollment growth will be approximately 1% annually. Appropriation trends/predictions In terms of finances, the University is largely dependent on revenue from two streams: 1) Commonwealth appropriations, and 2) Tuition and Fees. In the case of appropriations, resources have been decreasing steadily as a proportion of our overall budget. The following graph depicts East Stroudsburg University’s state appropriation for the past several years: Page 28 of 37 Growth in E and G resources has largely rested with increased tuition revenue during the past 5 years or so. Although the System-approved tuition and fee increases have been moderate, enrollment increases have supplemented the benefits of these increases. For the purposes of discussion, given the uncertainty of the state’s fiscal posture, we will assume our appropriations will hold at the current year’s level across all five years of our budget projections. The University will have to carefully monitor this revenue source and determine what is likely to be the most accurate reflection of what may occur. Tuition trends/predictions Predicting tuition revenue is a difficult and complex task. There has been increased attention on tuition by the Governor’s office during the past three years. Our exiting Governor strived to keep increases to an absolute minimum. Given the recent inauguration of our new Governor, tuition will be especially difficult to predict. Another issue impacting tuition is the spread between in-state and out-of-state tuition. State government has expressed the desire to not subsidize out-of-state students in any way. Out-of-state tuition is 250% of in-state tuition and is so set to ensure that out-of-state students pay the full cost of educating themselves. Page 29 of 37 In the past, the University had a limit of 15% on out-of-state students. However, this has been relaxed somewhat recently and the University’s out-of-state enrollment has now floated to approximately 23%. This has been very helpful in generating revenue in a time when appropriation increases have been so limited. For the purposes of revenue projection, it is appropriate to hold out-of-state enrollment at current levels. However, if the University were to grow its out-of-state enrollment beyond 30%, unwanted attention would very likely be drawn to us. To follow are graphs of tuition and fees for the past 10 years: Page 30 of 37 It can be seen that increases vary considerably within the various categories. It is unknown at this time how much the System is willing to increase tuition next year. We will be using 3% for planning purposes. The University charges several fees in addition to tuition. All miscellaneous, nonrecurring fees will be held at Fiscal Year 2010-2011 levels for Fiscal Year 2011-2012 with the exception of the transcript fee which will be increased from $3 to $5 per request. Other revenues The University receives some revenue from sources other than appropriations and tuition and fees. This revenue is primarily interest earned on invested funds, but also includes rental income and a few other small items. Marginal increases have been assumed in our projections. Anticipating interest rates, especially during the current economic crisis, is difficult at best. Page 31 of 37 Expenditure trends/predictions Expenditure projections are based on somewhat limited information. Salaries and benefits comprise greater than 70% of our total operating budget. Salary increases are governed by collective bargaining agreements, all of which expire June 30, 2011. The 5-Year Budget Projections that follow attempt to project salaries and benefits using the best known estimates at this time as per the PASSHE Budget Office. In the area of non-personnel services (utilities, supplies, etc.) it is wise to assume moderate increases in utilities with other commodities projected flat with no anticipated increases. Fundraising as a source of revenue Restricted gifts to the ESU Annual Fund support the University’s operating budget in order to assist the University in providing programs. It is a year-round fundraising program supported through gifts from alumni, parents, friends, campus community, and businesses and corporations. Restricted giving to the ESU Annual Fund supports operating expenses of the University, innovative academic endeavors, student scholarships, student organizations, and faculty resources. Programs in the ESU Annual Fund include the Student Phonathon, Parents Scholarship Program, Young Alumni Giving Program, Undergraduate Awareness Program. It could also support other possible, depending on the University’s need. According to 2009 VSE data, ESU ranks LAST in fundraising for restricted annual support among the 14 Universities comprising PASSHE. Current Operations - Restricted California Lockhaven Shippensburg Indiana West Chester Edinboro Bloomsburg Millersville Kutztown Clarion Mansfield Slipperyrock Cheyney East Stroudsburg $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 Page 32 of 37 However, the ESU Foundation is showing marked improvement as results for FY 2010-2011 as of December 31, 2010 equal 80% of last fiscal year’s total support and 81% of last fiscal year’s restricted support. The ESU Annual Fund • FY 09-10 Results as of June 30, 2010 – Restricted for your programs • FY 10-11 Results as of December 31, 2010 – Restricted for your programs $506,772 $315,566 $407,404 $256,652 ESU’s opportunity is to collaborate with the ESU Foundation to create a marketing plan for fundraising with the goal of generating support for our operating budget and potential relief to our impending budget deficits. Page 33 of 37 East Stroudsburg University Listing of Concerns / Issues Age and condition of University buildings, including dormitories No revenue stream to support additional parking Steam plant, steam & sewer distribution system in need of major upgrades Significant debt related to Science & Technology Building and GESA project Ineffective / antiquated student information systems Difficulty changing curriculum Lack of policies and standard operating procedures Funding of backfill plan Lack of swing space during renovations Loss of deferred maintenance funds Decreased enrollments Increased competition Popularity of community colleges Distance education Tightening of credit resulting from the economic crisis, its impact on enrollment and our collection rate Uncertainty surrounding state appropriation and performance funding Uncertainty regarding the impact of new guidelines on the charging of tuition Evaporation of federal stimulus funds Campus master plan requirements in the hundreds of millions while ESU’s share of the PASSHE capital budget is approximately $3.5 million / year Oversight (legislative, PASSHE, accrediting bodies) Perception of diversity on campus 4.5 - 5.0% annual increases in defined benefit retirement costs beginning FY 2012-13 Borough’s unwillingness to approve new projects without a parking solution Less bureaucratic organizations out-pace ESU and better meet needs & demands Page 34 of 37 Page 35 of 37 97,276,845.25 TOTAL REVENUE $72,274,616.65 HEAT, LIGHT, WATER & SEWER 2,189,776.00 TELEPHONE AND PANET 312,000.00 POSTAGE 181,170.46 SHUTTLE SERVICE 217,870.00 DESIGNATED REVENUES EXPENSE 525,305.43 SUMMER CONFERENCES DIRECT EXPENSE 592,848.00 COOPERATING TEACHERS (Object 625.25) 148,000.00 CENTRAL CHARGES 974,952.00 PAYMENTS MADE CHANCELLOR'S OFFICE ON BEHALF OF ESU 468,000.00 IUP COLLABORATIVE DOCTORAL PROGRAM FEE 35,000.00 MARINE SCIENCE CONSORTIUM MEMBERSHIP DUES 100,000.00 PRESIDENTIAL AWARDS 75,000.00 AUDITOR FEES 50,000.00 LEGAL FEES 75,000.00 CHANCELLORS .5% SHARE OF TUITION & FEES 283,757.02 OPERATING EXPENSES: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COSTS SALARIES - APSCUF - INSTRUCTIONAL 27,536,304.98 SALARIES - SCUPA 1,316,329.97 SALARIES - STATE UNIVERSITY MANAGERS 6,900,608.63 SALARIES - AFSCME - 37.5 HRS 6,775,217.33 SALARIES - PLANT GUARDS, NURSES, FT COACHES 1,890,059.12 WAGES 685,625.00 STUDENT EMPLOYMENT 1,185,328.00 FACULTY SUMMER SCHOOL PAY 2,400,000.00 FACULTY OVERLOAD REGULARLY SCHEDULED CLASSES 1,119,592.00 OTHER PAY 2,000,000.00 OVERTIME 257,880.00 SHIFT DIFFERENTIAL 55,500.00 HIGHER CLASS 36,300.00 SICK LEAVE PAY OUT 237,862.00 ANNUAL LEAVE PAY OUT 108,514.00 SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS 3,911,579.57 UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION 120,000.00 WORKER'S COMPENSATION (.5%) 361,780.00 EMPLOYEES' HEALTH AND WELFARE FUND 615,579.39 EMPLOYEES' HOSPITALIZATION INSURANCE 6,670,261.86 ANNUITANTS' HOSPITAL 3,339,723.37 EMPLOYEES' GROUP LIFE INSURANCE FUND 87,153.81 RETIREMENT CONTRIBUTIONS 3,854,408.22 TUITION WAIVER-EMPLOYEE & DEPENDANTS 809,009.40 PERSONNEL EXPENSES 21,948,994.00 319,436.00 1,997,363.00 665,788.00 2,130,663.00 56,751,404.46 4,122,110.70 1,836,774.09 782,000.00 1,069,543.00 1,903,115.00 3,749,654.00 REVENUE: STATE APPROPRIATION - BASE STATE APPROPRIATION - AFRP STATE APPROPRIATION - PERFORMANCE FUNDING STATE APPROPRIATION - PROGRAM INITIAITVES FEDERAL APPROPRIATION TUITION INSTRUCTIONAL SUPPORT FEE OTHER STUDENT FEES INCOME ON INVESTMENTS SUMMER CONFERENCE REVENUE INSTRUCTIONAL TECHNOLOGY FEE OTHER INCOME 2010-2011 2,411,327.00 312,000.00 192,170.46 217,870.00 525,305.43 592,848.00 148,000.00 974,952.00 468,000.00 35,000.00 100,000.00 75,000.00 50,000.00 75,000.00 295,107.30 $74,077,894.19 27,944,827.50 1,318,041.20 6,693,258.43 6,899,750.97 1,914,480.81 685,625.00 1,185,328.00 2,400,000.00 1,119,592.00 2,000,000.00 257,880.00 55,500.00 36,300.00 237,862.00 108,514.00 3,938,754.54 120,000.00 361,780.00 675,520.23 7,085,224.34 3,769,029.78 95,233.31 4,342,112.40 833,279.68 2,556,006.62 312,000.00 192,170.46 217,870.00 525,305.43 592,848.00 148,000.00 974,952.00 468,000.00 35,000.00 100,000.00 75,000.00 50,000.00 75,000.00 306,911.60 $76,903,407.45 28,503,724.05 1,344,402.02 6,827,123.60 7,037,745.99 1,952,770.43 685,625.00 1,185,328.00 2,400,000.00 1,119,592.00 2,000,000.00 257,880.00 55,500.00 36,300.00 237,862.00 108,514.00 4,021,503.74 120,000.00 361,780.00 743,072.25 7,793,746.77 4,145,932.75 95,233.31 5,011,493.47 858,278.07 100,357,033.62 61,382,319.06 4,458,474.93 1,948,633.63 797,718.20 1,069,543.00 1,941,367.61 3,827,396.18 59,021,460.64 4,286,995.13 1,891,877.31 789,820.00 1,069,543.00 1,922,146.15 3,788,139.00 97,701,562.23 21,948,994.00 319,436.00 1,997,363.00 665,788.00 2012-2013 21,948,994.00 319,436.00 1,997,363.00 665,788.00 2011-2012 2,709,367.02 312,000.00 192,170.46 217,870.00 525,305.43 592,848.00 148,000.00 974,952.00 468,000.00 35,000.00 100,000.00 75,000.00 50,000.00 75,000.00 319,188.06 $80,275,712.13 29,358,835.78 1,384,734.08 7,031,937.30 7,248,878.37 2,011,353.54 685,625.00 1,185,328.00 2,400,000.00 1,119,592.00 2,000,000.00 257,880.00 55,500.00 36,300.00 237,862.00 108,514.00 4,126,306.67 120,000.00 361,780.00 802,518.03 8,417,246.51 4,477,607.37 95,233.31 5,868,653.76 884,026.41 103,116,557.30 63,837,611.83 4,636,813.93 2,007,092.64 805,695.38 1,069,543.00 1,960,781.29 3,867,438.23 21,948,994.00 319,436.00 1,997,363.00 665,788.00 2013-2014 Fiscal Years 2010-2011 through 2014-2015 2,871,929.04 312,000.00 192,170.46 217,870.00 525,305.43 592,848.00 148,000.00 974,952.00 468,000.00 35,000.00 100,000.00 75,000.00 50,000.00 75,000.00 331,955.58 $83,816,584.51 30,239,600.85 1,426,276.11 7,242,895.42 7,466,344.72 2,071,694.15 685,625.00 1,185,328.00 2,400,000.00 1,119,592.00 2,000,000.00 257,880.00 55,500.00 36,300.00 237,862.00 108,514.00 4,234,253.69 120,000.00 361,780.00 866,719.48 9,090,626.23 4,835,815.96 95,233.31 6,768,196.38 910,547.21 105,984,264.71 66,391,116.30 4,822,286.49 2,067,305.42 813,752.34 1,069,543.00 1,980,389.10 3,908,291.07 21,948,994.00 319,436.00 1,997,363.00 665,788.00 2014-2015 EAST STROUDSBURG UNIVERSITY 5 - Year Budget Projection Increases vary by year as per latest data available Held constant Reflects anticipated inc for 11/12; then held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Increases at the same rate as tuition and fees Best estimates at this time-Agreements expire 06-30-2011 Best estimates at this time-Agreements expire 06-30-2012 Latest salary increase and benefit assumption data available Best estimates at this time-Agreements expire 06-30-2011 Best estimates at this time-Agreements expire 06-30-2011 Held constant Held constant (Univ Fund $757,828; GA's $427,500) Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Latest benefit assumption data available Held constant Per latest actuarial valuation report Latest benefit assumption data available Latest benefit assumption data available Latest benefit assumption data available Latest benefit assumption data available Latest benefit assumption data available 3% increase per annum Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant Per PASSHE Budget Office 3% tuition increases; 1% enroll Inc 3% tuition increases; 1% enroll Inc 3% inc per annum 10/11 per M&T Bank projection; 1% inc each year thereafter Held constant 1% enrollment increase per annum; No rate increase Held constant (excpt Sales/Srvcs & Misc Rev-2% inc per annum) Budget Assumptions Page 36 of 37 $17,947,332.94 REVENUE LESS EXPENDITURES AND TRANSFERS EXPENDITURES AND TRANSFERS TOTAL TOTAL: TOTAL TRANSFERS $280,531.18 $96,996,314.07 $2,225,485.20 SUMMER CONFERENCES SCHOLARSHIP COMMITMENT 93,043.00 HARDSHIP GRANTS 50,000.00 DEBT SERVICE ON MASTER PLAN PROPERTY ACQUISITIONS311,115.33 DEBT SERVICE ON SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY BUILDING 1,547,555.18 TRF FRM ISF RESERVE FOR SCI & TECH DEBT SERVICE (547,555.18) DEBT SERVICE ON GESA PROJECT $911,792.52 DEBT SERVICE ON PED SAFETY/STORM WATER MGMT PROJECT 526,063.32 CARRYFORWARD TO NEXT FY CARRYFORWARD FROM PRIOR FY USE OF PROCEEDS FROM MECCA PROPERTY BOND (1,300,000.00) USE OF PROCEEDS FROM BANNER BOND (292,361.76) SYTEC PROJECT (SAP) 132,261.00 DEBT SERVICE ON BRIDGE NOTE FOR BANNER 150,000.00 DEBT SERVICE ON BACKFILL PLAN (STROUD & GESSNER ONLY) 71,327.79 DEBT SERVICE ON RESEARCH PARK BUILDING ACADEMIC FACILITY RENOVATION PROGRAM - BUDRPT DATA 319,436.00 CAPITAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT COMMITMENT 252,808.00 TRANSFERS: ****** General Support Inst Fee Amt (60.0%) ****** Non-Add PRESIDENTIAL INITIATIVES FUNDING $45,000.00 CLASSROOM FURNITURE $30,000.00 INSTRUCTIONAL SUPPORT FEE EXPENSE $1,648,844.28 INVESTMENT IN INSTRUCTIONAL TECHNOLOGY 1,903,115.00 LIBRARY ACQUISITIONS BUDGET 538,269.00 SUMMER CONFERENCE PROCEEDS ALLOCATION 383,651.00 TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS $4,548,879.28 CAPITAL: TOTAL OPERATING COSTS A. COHN MEMORIAL JAZZ COLLECTION 20,000.00 SERVICE AGREEMENT WITH ESU FOUNDATION 1,583,333.00 DEPARTMENT OPER BUDGTS 6,585,603.03 LEASE - CENTER FOR RESEARCH & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 589,146.00 TRANSPORTATION EXPENSE - COACHES 156,000.00 UPWARD BOUND MATCH 9,450.00 NEW FACULTY MOVING EXPENSE REIMBURSEMENTS 20,000.00 TUITION WAIVER-OTHER THAN EMPLOYEE 2,755,122.00 2010-2011 ($2,652,708.64) $100,354,270.87 ($3,702,439.05) $104,059,472.67 $4,816,297.58 214,194.00 150,000.00 403,617.00 584,000.00 319,436.00 252,808.00 (707,638.24) 215,235.00 150,000.00 403,617.00 584,000.00 319,436.00 252,808.00 $4,110,219.39 93,043.00 50,000.00 311,115.33 1,547,871.47 (547,871.47) 912,333.69 525,750.56 $45,000.00 $30,000.00 $1,783,389.97 1,941,367.61 538,269.00 383,651.00 $4,721,677.58 93,043.00 50,000.00 311,115.33 1,547,752.28 (547,752.28) 912,547.30 526,056.00 $45,000.00 $30,000.00 $1,714,798.05 1,922,146.15 538,269.00 383,651.00 $4,633,864.20 $17,618,090.05 156,000.00 9,450.00 20,000.00 2,418,939.96 156,000.00 9,450.00 20,000.00 2,590,326.88 $17,532,293.08 20,000.00 1,779,032.96 6,585,603.03 2012-2013 20,000.00 1,678,332.98 6,585,603.03 2011-2012 ($4,795,800.11) $107,912,357.41 $4,836,991.93 235,826.00 150,000.00 403,617.00 584,000.00 319,436.00 252,808.00 93,043.00 50,000.00 311,115.33 1,548,231.30 (548,231.30) 911,151.66 525,994.94 $45,000.00 $30,000.00 $1,854,725.57 1,960,781.29 538,269.00 383,651.00 $4,812,426.86 $17,987,226.49 156,000.00 9,450.00 20,000.00 2,515,697.55 20,000.00 1,885,774.94 6,585,603.03 2013-2014 Fiscal Years 2010-2011 through 2014-2015 Budget Assumptions ($6,162,024.68) $112,146,289.39 $5,046,150.76 443,241.00 150,000.00 403,617.00 584,000.00 319,436.00 252,808.00 93,043.00 50,000.00 311,115.33 1,547,158.98 (547,158.98) 913,145.43 525,745.00 $45,000.00 $30,000.00 $1,928,914.60 1,980,389.10 539,269.00 383,651.00 $4,907,223.70 $18,376,330.43 Held constant Held constant Assumes no additional financing Assumes no additional financing Assumes no additional financing Assumes no additional financing Assumes no additional financing Projected FY 2010-11 surplus to be carried forward Projected FY 2010-11 surplus carried forward Bridge note Bridge note As per PASSHE SAS Budget (Scenario A) Bridge note to help finance Banner SIS Project Assumes Stroud/Gessner Backfill Plan is financed w/new debt Assumes we borrow $9M with Debt Service of $73K/$1M per annum Held constant Held constant Held constant Held constant 3% tuition increases; 1% enroll Inc 1% enrollment increase in 11/12 Held constant Held constant 20,000.00 Held constant 1,998,921.43 As per Legal Agreement + 6% estimated escalation 6,585,603.03 Held constant Lease entire CFRED building effective 1/1/2011 until purchased 156,000.00 Held constant 9,450.00 Held constant 20,000.00 Held constant 2,616,325.46 4% increase per annum adjusted for new approach to Grad. Assts. 2014-2015 EAST STROUDSBURG UNIVERSITY 5 - Year Budget Projection ACKNOWLEDGMENTS East Stroudsburg University Business Office Facilities Management Department Business & Economic Group (BERG), Economics Department Research and Economic Development Office of Academic & Institutional Effectiveness Office of University Relations Chancellor’s Office Office of Administration and Finance East Stroudsburg University Foundation, Inc. Page 37 of 37