Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal fisheries to climate change
Scientific support for the management of Coastal and Oceanic Fisheries
in the Pacific Islands region (SciCOFish)
Funded by European Union
(10th EDF)
Summary of possible climate change effects that may
influence CEAFM activities in the Pacific region
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Sea level rise
Relative sea-level = level of the sea surface relative to the land
Net relative sea level trend since 1994 is around 4 to 6 mm/year
• Sea level will rise between 0.75 and 1.90 by
2100 (Vermeer & Rahmstorf 2009)
• Adding up to storm surges, swell, ENSO,...
• Increased sedimentation due to erosion of
shorelines
• Degradation of coastal freshwater aquifers
• Loss of mangrove area (12-50%)
• Land loss
Map of region showing net relative sea level trends (in mm/year) after subtracting the effects of
the vertical movement of the platform and the inverse barometric pressure effect, utilising all
the data collected since the start of the project up to the end of December 2009
(Australia Bureau of Meteorology - Sea Level & Climate report - December 2009)
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Ocean acidification
2010
~2030
~2050
~2070
•
Ocean acidification is
unavoidable with current
CO2 emissions.
•
Decrease of calcification
productivity
•
Less resilience to corals
diseases and other
perturbations
•
Loss of coral biodiversity is
to be expected
From Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. Science Vol. 318. no. 5857.
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Increase of SST and thermal stress
An extended period where sea
surface temperature (SST) is 1°C
greater than the maximum in
monthly climatology causes thermal
stress and bleaching
Bleaching is expected to become
more and more frequent in the
future, with less time for
recovery
Frequency that annual degree heating month >1 (PCM model /A2 scenario) from Donner et al. 2005
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Changes in precipitations
A2 scenario
A lot of uncertainty remains on
changes in precipitations over small
islands.
Precipitations are also largely
influenced by El Niño/La Niña
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Region
2010-2039
2040-2039
2070-2099
North Pacific
-6.3 to +9.1
-19.2 to +21.3
-2.7 to +25.8
South Pacific
-3.9 to +3.4
-8.23 to +6.7
-14.0 to +14.6
Changes in rainfall patterns will
impact the sediment and nutrient
inputs to the reef areas.
Projected changes in precipitations over small islands by region (%)
from 7 models and 4 scenarios (IPTC 2008)
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Impact on coastal fisheries
Climate change will likely cause habitat loss and possibly change in recruitment and larval dispersion.
These threats will add up to overfishing with a
feedback effect :
Reef herbivorous species (grazers, bioeroders
and scrapers) are essential to ensure coral
resilience to destructive events (bleaching,
cyclones,…) and preventing macroalgae from
colonizing the area after the event.
Overfishing of these species increases the
impact of climate change on habitat.
Protection of herbivorous species by communities and notification
to technical services of major changes in habitat is essential
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Impact on oceanic fisheries
Climate change models predict that warm pool and primary production will move to the East. Tuna
distribution and abundance has been shown to be sensitive to ENSO and will change with
displacement of the warm pool
Further studies are conducted by the SPC Oceanic Fisheries and Climate Change Project (OFCCP / GLOBEC)
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Building resilience to climate change
The healthiest the environment, the better its chances to survive climate change stressors.
Conservation actions improve resilience to climate change :
• Reducing overfishing especially protecting herbivores
• Stopping harmful fishing practices (trampling, dynamiting, poisoning,...)
• Reducing pollution (nutrients, chemicals)
• Reducing sedimentation (deforestation, infrastructures, dredging)
• Protecting coral reefs and associated habitats (mangrove, seagrass)
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Monitoring climate change impact
Oceanographic environment
Remote sensing, in-situ loggers
Habitat supporting coastal fisheries
Benthic cover surveys through photoquadrats
Habitat mapping (satellite imagery and ground truthing)
Algal bloom (dinoflagellates) and water quality sampling
Fish and invertebrate resources
Underwater Visual Census, selected commercial families
Commercial/edible invertebrates through a combination of
manta tow, scuba and shallow water transects.
Fisheries
Market and landing surveys
Household & census surveys
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010
Alternatives to reef fisheries
Nearshore FADs
SciCOFish
Funded by European Union
Inshore FADs
Small pond aquaculture
Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)
Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010