APPENDIX 2 CITY OF SALFORD HOUSING REVENUE ACCOUNT BUSINESS PLAN 2001 - 2031 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Each year the Housing Services Directorate produces a Business Plan that sets out the financial implications of present and future resources and expenditure. It is essential that local people are involved in developing and commenting on the content of this plan and that our tenants are consulted. The Business Plan for Council Stock is a vital part of the overall housing strategy so it is important also that Local People and Partners are aware of what it contains and can also comment upon it OUR VISION Our vision is “Quality Homes for All” We will help to ensure that every person in the City lives in a decent home. We will achieve this by : Investment in the management and maintenance of council and registered social landlord owned homes Working with home-owners and private landlords to help them manage and maintain their properties effectively for the benefit of the community Work to the governments target of ensuring that all council housing achieves a 'decent' standard 2010 Work with private sector partners to reduce unfit and empty private sector housing by one third by 2004 HOW WE WILL ACHIEVE QUALITY HOMES FOR ALL FOR THE COMMUNITY Work with the Salford Crime Reduction Partnership to reduce Domestic Burglary through a combination of target hardening and advice and joint operations with Greater Manchester Police. Development and promote our service for resolving problems of Nuisance and Anti-Social Behaviour. Work with the Energy Saving Trust, other Greater Manchester Councils, Fuel Providers and Network Installers to provide warm and energy efficient homes and reduce fuel poverty. Provide a network of support for people who are vulnerable and/or have special needs. Work with specialist providers and the Health Authority to provide a range of housing options Provide people with choice in seeking their housing solutions. Give access through local housing offices, a Housing Shop and the Internet to a range of housing choices. 2 Provide a strategy for the housing for Elderly Residents of the City Of Salford Ensure there is a sufficient supply of housing by analysing what people want and what they need. Use the community consultation network to gather together local views on housing requirements. Look ahead 30 years and provide a vision for housing needs of the City over that period of time. Provide a clear five year strategy for the Housing Market in Salford. PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSING Maintain and improve popular housing in our ownership. Ensure that our estates and high rise properties have good environments and are safe and secure Review all our unpopular and empty housing. For those properties for which there is no demand to either demolish or dispose of it, or seek alternative solutions. For properties for which there is a good chance of improving popularity to target investment and market effectively. Continue to investigate and pursue alternative methods of investing in Council owned stock so as to maximise the ability to bring in additional resources for management and maintenance. RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS The present commitment to improving the condition of the housing stock and the surrounding environment is directing the financial reserves towards the most needy areas. The spending plans use up the available reserves within the next three years, at which point there will be no option but to reduce capital spending. In order to maximise the use of the reserves the present spending plans are to be reviewed with the intention of reducing expenditure by £2 million per year. This will create a business plan that is sustainable over the next thirty years OUR PRIORITY AREAS The business plan sets out how resources will be used to meet the objectives set out in the housing strategy. As a result analysis of the business plan establishes the financial priorities for housing. These are: To refine spending plans to improve the stock in order to maximise the numbers of properties achieving the decent homes standard To address the present overspend on capital budgets in order that a sustainable level of expenditure can be achieved 3 To use the information provided in the stock condition survey to improve the cost effectiveness of the maintenance strategy and release resources for improvements in the stock to be made To maximise resources where ever possible with a key target of accessing additional funding through the decent homes standard To direct additional resources accessed to the improvements of council housing and the meeting of the decent homes standard To develop the service to customers and excel in the provision of housing. 4 CONTENTS 1 WHAT IS HRA BUSINESS PLANNING 6 2 THE BUSINESS PLAN IN CONTEXT 7 3 MISSION STATEMENT AND KEY OBJECTIVES 8 4 KEY ACHIEVEMENTS DURING 2000/2001 10 5 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT AND FUTURE LIKELY POSITION 11 6 PRIORITIES FOR ACTION 22 7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 28 8 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS 33 9 OPTIONS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS AREAS OF CONCERN 36 10 OUR FUTURE STRATEGY 52 11 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OVER TIME 54 5 1.0 WHAT IS PLANNING HOUSING REVENUE ACCOUNT (HRA) BUSINESS The government have recently introduced major changes to the way that local councils run and manage their council housing stock. Not only have they made more money available to councils to look after their housing stock, they have set a number of important targets and aims that all councils must achieve. These include; The need to clear the large backlog of repairs which are needed to council housing across the country by 2010 The need to ensure that all council housing is of a decent standard by 2010 Made councils change the way in which council rents are set Made councils think about the way in which houses are let to people Insisting on Improving the services offered to tenants Increasing the participation of tenants in the running of their homes In order to ensure that the new money available is used in the best possible way, each local council is expected to provide a 30 year business plan which outlines how much money will be needed to look after council housing, how much the council can expect to receive from the government and collect in rents, and how it will deal with any gap between the money available and the money needed. Councils are expected to look at a wide range of different ways of making sure that money is spent wisely. This might include; Carrying out improvements to homes Demolishing unpopular housing Getting a new landlord to manage the housing stock This is the City of Salford's Housing Revenue Account (HRA) Business Plan which covers the period from April 2001 to March 2031. Each year, the Council will need to produce a new business plan covering the next 30 years. The plan will be updated to take account of changing demand for council housing, changes to the amount of money that will be required to repair the council's housing and changes in government policies. 6 2.0 THE BUSINESS PLAN IN CONTEXT Salford's HRA business plan 2001 - 2031 sets out the city council's medium and long-term aims and objectives for the delivery of our HRA housing service. However, it is important that the business plan fits in with the aims and objectives of the city council as a whole. To make sure this happens, the plan has been written having made sure that it fits in with other major strategies such as; The City of Salford Strategic Plan - 1999 towards 2007 The City of Salford Corporate Regeneration Strategy The City of Salford Capital Investment Strategy 2001 - 2006 The City of Salford Corporate Best Value Performance Plan The City of Salford Housing Services Best Value Performance Plan The City of Salford Corporate Housing Strategy The City of Salford Crime and Disorder Strategy The City of Salford Tenant Participation Compact The Salford Partnership Community Plan. The Housing Services Directorate will also, in implementing the above strategies, produce an Annual Housing Plan for each Community Service Delivery Area. These plans will provide local operational and strategic objectives with performance standards that ensure the department is focussed upon improving service delivery. The major aims and objectives of the HRA business plan mirror those set out in the documents identified above. All of these strategies have been developed after detailed consultation with a wide range of stakeholders including the other public sector organisations, private companies and the voluntary sectors and the people of the City of Salford. We have also taken note of Regional Planning Guidance, Regional Housing Statement and recent research on the issue of the future housing market for the North West of England as it is becoming clear that we can no longer look at Salford alone when trying to predict how demand for council housing in Salford will change in the future. 7 3.0 MISSION STATEMENT AND KEY OBJECTIVES In accordance with the City's Strategic Plan, '1999 towards 2007', the main objective or mission statement of the HRA business plan is the following; 'To assist in the delivery of the best possible quality of life for the people of Salford by giving all citizens of the city the opportunity to live in a good quality home'. In order to make sure that we do this, a number of key objectives have been identified that flow from the City's Corporate Housing Strategy. These objectives are set out below; Finding solutions to the problems caused by low demand for council housing within the City of Salford. To invest in council housing in areas where demand can be maintained by improving the quality of the housing stock. To ensure that new council housing initiatives assist in the overall regeneration of the city. To continue to plan maintenance investment in council housing stock where demand is secured for the medium term. Wherever possible, to respond to the needs of customers and to facilitate the effective involvement of tenants and other stakeholders in the development of the HRA business plan. To respond to the needs of the people of the city, particularly those with special housing needs in terms of quality, location, affordability, size and design of council housing within the city. Working with other housing providers and external partners to develop sustainable mixed tenure communities. To provide value for money and a responsive council housing service to our customers. To match the housing and support for supported housing with needs. To provide a sustainable housing stock 8 The city council will continuously endeavour to achieve these objectives throughout the life of the business plan. Progress towards providing a good quality home for every citizen will be monitored. Each new business plan will outline the steps that have been taken during the last year to achieve this. 9 4.0 KEY ACHIEVEMENTS DURING 2000/2001 During the year, nearly £22.5 million was spent on improvements to the city's council housing stock. A further £14.5 million was spent on repairs and maintenance issues, bringing total spending on council housing to £37 million. During the year, the council; Carried out environmental improvements to 500 council homes Carried out internal improvements to 1900 council homes Replaced 270 roofs Installed 465 central heating systems Re-wired 200 homes Installed new windows and doors in 2800 homes Additionally, in order to reduce the numbers of unpopular council homes in the city, a further £300,000 was spent in demolishing and landscaping over 300 council homes. Nearly 150 tenants were re-housed as part of this process. Our aim is to ensure that the council housing available for new tenants more accurately matches the current and future needs of those seeking council accommodation. This means that we need to reduce the number of homes we currently manage and also reduce the numbers of increasingly unpopular housing types. 10 5.0 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE POSITION In this section of the plan, we outline the measures that have been taken to identify the current situation facing Salford's housing revenue account housing stock. Information from a wide range of sources has been used to predict the emerging areas for action and the appropriate solutions into the medium and long term. 5.1 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION The city council is continuing to develop it's approach to stakeholder involvement and consultation in the business planning process. At present, the business planning approach is discussed with a range of partners and stakeholders, including; Private developers Registered Social Landlords Private Landlords Local Health Authority Other Council Directorates In terms of consultation with tenants and residents, the following approach has been taken; A summary of Salford's approach to business planning has been discussed with members of the Salford Strategy Panel - a group of over 500 Salford citizens from all tenures who have agreed to act on a consultancy / participatory role on major policy issues requiring consultation. The purpose and main objectives of the HRA business plan has been featured in an article in 'Salford People', the city councils magazine which was delivered to every home in the city during June 2001. The content of the HRA Business Plan will be reported to Salford's network of Area Housing Committees, all of which contain strong representation form active tenant and resident associations across the city of Salford. A copy of the business plan and a summary document will be made available to Tenants groups and also to the general public via council offices throughout the city and on the Council web site. 11 We will ensure that feedback from individual tenants and organised groups are seriously considered and where appropriate, acted upon in future HRA business plans It is accepted that there is a need to improve the way we consult with tenants as part of the business planning process. Over the coming months, further ways of improving tenant participation and consultation will be explored, paying particular attention to the Good Practice Guidance on Tenant Participation, recently published by the Department of Transport and Local Government and Regions (DTLR). The city council has recently established a tenant's forum in order to facilitate improved tenant consultation and participation and this will be involved in development of the business plan. Option appraisal is and will continue to be an important part of the business planning process. This is simply a way of looking at the cost of each option available to the city council to deal with a specific problem relating to it's HRA housing stock. However, detailed tenant consultation forms a vital part of this process. Every tenant whose home is subjected to this option appraisal process is consulted individually in order to find out what they think the best thing to do with their homes is. This qualitative data provides a separate element of the appraisal from the quantitative or 'hard figures' part of the appraisal. The views of individual tenants are taken and the general views of tenants gauged before any final decision is made regarding the option to be selected. The housing services directorate has a well-developed Tenant Participation Service including a Principal Tenant Participation Officer and a team of area based tenant participation officers who liaise with the network of over Tenant and Resident Associations across the city. The city council has recently completed a detailed tenant satisfaction survey in order to identify ways in which we may improve our service. The following information summarises the major findings: 69% of tenants were satisfied with the area in which they live; 82% of tenants felt that the condition of their home was very good or fairly good; problems with litter, rubbish, crime and vandalism, stray dogs and graffiti were the major concerns expressed by tenants; 69% of tenants had contacted the housing directorate during the previous year. 64% were satisfied with the outcome of their contact; 12 75% of tenants expressed satisfaction with the service provided by the city council; 75% of tenants had reported a repair to the council during the previous year. 80% of these were satisfied with the quality of the work undertaken; 71% of tenants felt that council rents represented value for money; 77% of tenants felt that the council kept them informed on major issues and 67% felt that the council listened to their views when making decisions. The survey indicates that the majority of tenants are satisfied with most aspects of the councils' housing service. Although this is pleasing to note, the survey also identified areas where efforts must be made to improve the quality and responsiveness of the service. The aim will be to secure continuous improvement in the service offered in order to meet the needs of the 'best value' regime and to eradicate those areas of dissatisfaction that can be influenced by the authority. 5.2 PREPARING FOR BUSINESS PLANNING In the 2000/01 business plan - the first that Salford had to prepare - we identified the ways in which the city council was getting ready for business planning. Since this time, substantial progress has been made to develop the business planning process and implement a more business like strategy over the forthcoming years. A summary of the progress to date is provided below: During 2000/1 and 2001/2 the Housing Services Directorate was restructured in order to create a clear split between the housing management function (i.e. the service provided to tenants primarily via area housing offices) and the strategy function (i.e. the development of the corporate housing strategy, management of the major housing improvements projects across the city and production of the HRA Business Plan). This meets the requirement set out in the governments recent housing green paper, 'Quality and Choice - A Decent Home for All'; Within the Strategy Division, a new post of 'Head of Investment Strategy' has been created. The primary role of this post is to develop the city's HRA business plan and ensure that investment options and decisions reflect the available resources, options available and the problems and opportunities faced by the city council in respect of it's council housing stock; 13 A new research officer post has been created to improve the collection of the facts and figures necessary for option appraisals and the HRA business plan; Within the Housing Management Division, the number of management areas has been reduced from 9 to 5. Each area is responsible for the delivery of a comprehensive management service to approximately 6000 council properties. Each area is headed by a Group Housing Manager who not only takes ultimate responsibility for the management of the council housing within his/her area, but also looks at city wide issues and holds regular discussions with officers from the Directorate's strategy division in order to ensure that the objectives of the local and city wide housing strategy are effective and deliverable; Elderly Services Division has taken on the function of recruitment, training and management of mobile and residential warden services in order to provide a more cohesive and uniform service across the city. The service is currently being re-structured in order to offer services to residents which are more effective and responsive. It is also intended to seek to extend the service to other housing providers within Salford; A new 'Best Value' team has been established in order to ensure that our services show continuous improvement and meet the needs of the people of the city of Salford; A new anti social behaviour intervention team has been established in order to tackle unacceptable behaviour so as to improve the quality of life for our tenants; A new computer system will be implemented by October 2001. This will facilitate the storage and retrieval of statistical information and other data necessary for the completion / update of the HRA business plan; A detailed stock condition survey has been undertaken in order to identify the backlog of repairs and improvements. This has been completed on the basis of the five new management areas. By the submission of the next business plan, the breaking down of all data to an area basis will be possible. This will facilitate the implementation of the recommended option for the entire council housing stock - i.e. establishment of a structure to facilitate Arms Length Company status; 14 5.3 Consultants have been engaged to review Salford’s stock option and have indicated that an arms length company model will greatly assist Salford'’ delivery of this plan; The way in which council houses are let within the city has been reviewed to make sure that it reflects the current needs and choices of those requiring council housing accommodation. The system's flexibility has been increased and changes made which reflect the revised structure of the housing management division. Consultation on hee changes will take place in he summer of 2001; A valuation of all HRA assets has been undertaken both to inform the business planning process and to facilitate the new financial framework of resource accounting, recently introduced by the government to coincide with the new way of funding housing repairs and improvements. BEST VALUE PERFORMANCE Another major government initiative is the requirement for all local councils to achieve 'Best Value' in all of it's services. This means that we must strive to improve the quality of the services we provide whilst doing so in the most value for money way. All of the services we offer will be reviewed with a focus on creating the best services in a value for money way. We will also involve citizens in the development of services which are identified as being demanded. A number of performance targets or 'performance indicators' are set and all council's must not only improve their own performance but also be capable of being compared to the performance of other similar councils or 'benchmarks'. The indicators show that our performance is improving. However, we are committed to ensuring that improved service delivery is continuous and also increasingly cost-effective. This review process takes in to account all of the options available to the Council in providing services. The resources available which are outlined in this business plan are of paramount importance in deciding what can be achieved by in-house services. The business plan informs the reviews on resources available whilst individual service reviews provide the operational focus upon how best those resources can be used and set priorities for investment across housing for achieving service delivery improvements. 15 5.4 ASSESSMENT OF HOUSING NEED / DEMAND In 1998, the city council appointed the Northern Consortium of Housing Authorities (NCHA) to carry out a detailed study of the housing market within Salford in order to predict demand for housing across all tenures until 2004. A review of this study is to be undertaken in 2002 which will report housing needs on a city wide basis and by the five management areas. The methodology utilised was based on historical movements in the housing market over the preceding five years. It was felt that this was a more accurate means of assessing housing demand compared to information based on proposed future housing movements. These often involve decisions based on aspiration rather than reality and are, therefore, less reliable. Across all tenures, the study predicts a net reduction in the number of households of 1917 by 2004. The reduction in the number of households in local authority accommodation is projected to decline by 802 during the same period. Demand by sub-area varies significantly, with the area including the wards of Claremont, Langworthy, Pendleton, Weaste and Seedley projected to see a decline in the number of local authority households of 1019. The Swinton, Kersal and Pendlebury Wards are set to see an increase in demand for council housing by 326. The demand for one bedroomed accommodation across all tenures is projected to increase by 381 with reduced demand for 2 and 3 bedroomed homes (total net reduction 7295) with increased demand for larger (4 bedrooms plus) sized accommodation (increase of 5034). Although increased demand for smaller accommodation is in line with demographic trends and trends on household dissolution, it does not mirror the current situation where one bedroom council accommodation is increasingly unpopular. The review of the market demand study will focus on how accurate the initial study was and also whether location is a more important factor than actual physical size / type of accommodation. The market demand study will be updated regularly and it's accuracy continuously assessed in order to ensure that demand information is sufficiently robust to inform both the HRA Business Plan and corporate housing strategy. Existing demand and vacancy rates amongst the council's housing stock are a necessary starting point for an assessment of future demand. 16 Across the city, there are 2252 void council properties, representing 7.1% of the total housing stock. In order to ensure that all investment decisions are made on the basis of the best evidence available, a system of assessing the status of void properties has recently been introduced. This system classifies voids as A, B or C. 'A' voids are those in estates where there are no major structural problems with the housing stock and where present and future demand is projected to be maintained. Such properties are repaired and re-let as quickly as possible. 'B' voids are those who's future sustainability is in doubt. This may be due to the fact that the property type, size or location are unpopular or that major repairs are required to bring the stock to the 'decent' standard. Whatever the reason, the stock concerned is subjected to a detailed option appraisal. All relevant quantitative and qualitative issues are considered and other available options (e.g. stock transfer) tested in order to assess what the most suitable course of action is in respect of the future of the stock in question. An assessment of the wider citywide and regional housing market is also undertaken. This option appraisal acts as a vital tool in the decision making process. Actions taken after option appraisal may include improvement, demolition, disposal or conversion, depending upon the unique circumstances of the stock in question. Whilst awaiting the results of option appraisal, the housing stock in these areas is not generally marketed. However, should an individual express a desire to be re-housed in an area identified for option appraisal, this is allowed although potential tenants are told of the fact that the future of the estate is uncertain prior to acceptance of the tenancy. This approach is taken to prevent disruption to new tenants who may find themselves having to move out of a home they only recently moved into. 'C' voids are those in respect of which a decision has been taken to demolish or dispose. Tenants are re-housed with full eligibility to homeloss compensation and disturbance allowance and the services such as gas and electricity are 'capped' to avoid danger to others, properties secured and fly tipping cleared regularly pending completion of the selected option. The classification of void properties as A, B or C voids is undertaken by officers within the Housing Service Directorate's Strategy Division after detailed discussion and consultation with local housing management staff, maintenance staff and others. 17 If investment is identified as the most appropriate option for stock subject to option appraisal, all attempts are taken to let vacant units and the Strategy Division commissions a scheme of improvements aimed at tackling the issues identified specifically for that estate. The aim of the process is to provide a specific solution to specific local problems whilst delivering those basic improvements which the city council has established as an essential part of all future improvement schemes. 5.5 THE CONDITION OF THE HOUSING STOCK In January 2001, the city council appointed an independent consultant to carry out a detailed survey of the condition of the city's housing stock. This is important if we are to accurately assess the value of all of our assets as well as find out the extent to which repairs and improvements to our houses are necessary. In accordance with existing practice, the consultants carried out an internal survey of a 10% sample of the city's housing stock. And a 100% external survey of all-purpose built blocks of flats. The survey looked not only at the condition of the housing concerned, but looked at how energy efficient they were and how they met the latest guidelines on the subject of crime prevention. The final report was delivered during July 2001. The final report provided a detailed schedule of maintenance and improvement that will be required over the next five years and a full schedule of improvement / maintenance requirements over the next thirty years. The report indicates that 19,700 council properties already meet the governments 'decent homes' standard. 10,600 or 35% currently fail to meet the standard The report indicates a total maintenance bill over the next thirty years of £1,465,678,815. over thirty years £386,090,882 is required for internal works over the same period, £210,054,238 is required for external works in the remaining twenty five years, 62% of expenditure is on internal elements, 36% on external and 1% on communal. The remaining 1% is on capital replacement of mechanical equipment. 18 the ‘average’ catch-up expenditure across the stock is £837 per unit per annum (which is higher than the benchmark figure of between £500-550) Catch up repairs constitute nearly 10% of the total maintenance expenditure The conclusion is that there is a large amount of catch up works to be undertaken in the first five years. The total forecast expenditure is £48,350 per property for the thirty year plan period, or an annual cost of £1,610 per dwelling per year. Savilles consider the unit cost figure of £48,350 as being above the average, comparing with a benchmark of about £39,500 for the 30 year period or £1,320 per unit per year. The benchmark includes a range of larger authorities, and with the type of stock found in Salford we would expect a figure towards the top end of our benchmark range. The following represent benchmark figures for costs per unit. They are shown as 'can-openers', and are not a challenge to the survey findings. Salford Benchmark Range Expected Benchmar k £ per unit £ per unit £ per unit Salford as % benchmar k % Catch-up repairs Future major works £4,189 £16,002 £1,850 £16,200 226% 99% Estate costs Improvements Responsive and void Cyclical maintenance Contingencies Exceptional extensive Preliminaries £1,296 £3,199 £11,724 £3,939 £502 £1,343 £2,711 £200-£4,000 £12,000£20,500 £0-£2,000 £900-£5,400 £7,000-£14,700 £3,000-£8,400 £0-£4,500 £0-£2,100 £0-£3,000 £850 £2,500 £9,800 £5,650 £1,325 £580 £1,460 152% 128% 120% 131% 39% 232% 186% £33,000£48,500 £39,500 122% Total unit cost per £48,353 19 The stock condition survey reflects an overall impression that the stock is in a generally serviceable condition and has been well maintained within the resources available. However, whilst a proportion of the housing stock has benefited from programmed replacements/upgrades over recent years, many are now considered to require further updating and improving to bring them up to a modern day standards. A significant financial injection is required to bring the properties up to modern standards with the focussing on the replacement/replanning of the older kitchens and bathrooms, renewal/updating of central heating and electrical systems and replacement of the original roof coverings and single glazed windows. 5.6 VALUE AND USE OF HOUSING REVENUE ACCOUNT ASSETS In order to run the business of HRA housing effectively, and also for new accounting procedures brought in by the government, it has been necessary to undertake a valuation of all of the council's housing assets. This includes not only the housing stock, but shops, garages, land, leases and other ground rents etc. that the housing services directorate holds. However, rather than value the assets based on the true market value, we are required to indicate the value taking into account the fact that tenants occupy our houses and our shops. The 'Existing Use Value' of housing assets has been estimated to be in the region of £520 million. The value of our assets is important to the business planning process because it can identify areas where the council can benefit from selling off assets and investing the money into the housing stock. It can also help to assess whether an asset should be sold or retained as part of an option appraisal. It is also important in terms of rent re-structuring, because in future, rents will need to reflect the value of individual value of council; properties. The council will utilise the asset valuation in order to ensure that housing resources are used to the best possible advantage, thus tackling disrepair whilst increasing the value of the housing stock. 5.7 RENT RE-STRUCTURING It is the aim of the government to ensure that all social housing providers rents are affordable, fair and less confusing for tenants. They also aim to remove the differences in rent levels between local authorities and other Registered Social Landlords (mainly Housing Associations). There is also to be a closer link between the size, condition and value of a property and the rent level set for that particular property. The local rent levels will also reflect local earnings in order to ensure that the rents can be afforded. 20 The city council is currently investigating the impact of this rent restructuring in accordance with recent government guidance on the subject. Indications are that the city's average rent will need to reduce in real terms over the next ten years in order to fall in line with other providers rents and the governments aims, briefly outlined above. The government is presently consulting council on it's proposals and it is intended that clearer guidance will be issued in time for next year's business plan. The city council's approach to rent restructuring will be developed in next year's business plan. 5.8 SUMMARY OF CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE POSITION The council has made many major changes aimed at ensuring we can provide the best possible service to the tenants of Salford. The structure of the directorate has been changed to make the service more responsive. New teams have been established to deal with 'best value' and ensure continuous improvement is achieved and also to tackle major problems associated with anti social behaviour. We have carefully considered what housing we will need in the future and we have also looked at what condition our housing stock is in and how much it will cost to bring all of our housing to the standards set by both tenants and government. We have looked at reviewing the way we let properties to tenants to ensure that people have more choice and we are in the process of changing the way in which we set rent levels so that they more accurately reflect the size and quality of the property concerned. We have, as part of all of this process, continued to consult and involve all our stakeholders, including tenant and resident representatives. We have also made a commitment to improve the way we involve tenants in the future. 21 6.0 PRIORITIES FOR ACTION Having identified the current position regarding the Housing Revenue Account asset base, in this section, we seek to outline the priorities identified for action in order to deliver an efficient and effective service to the tenants of Salford. 6.1 BALANCING HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND In order to deal effectively with issues revolving around low demand for council housing in the city and in light of the predicted future decrease in demand for council housing, it is essential that supply and need / demand for council housing in future is balanced. Consequently, it is a major aim of the city council to review it's stock levels to reflect future demand for council housing. This will be achieved by identification of dwellings for which there is low or no demand due to it's location, type or size. Utilising the ABC voids procedure identified above, as a starting point, areas or estates which face an uncertain future will be subjected to option appraisal. This appraisal will consider all of the options open to the city council in respect of the stock, be it transfer, PFI, investment, conversion or demolition. Option appraisal will identify the most cost-effective solution whilst also considering the views of tenants. It will provide an effective tool in the decision making process. Decisions to demolish an area or estate will be taken where strong evidence can be provided that shows; That there is little / no demand for council housing in that area That investment is unlikely to influence demand That stock transfer is non viable / undesirable That all other options do not provide a reasonable alternative Demolition will become a more viable option if the resulting site can be put to some strategic use. Therefore, if demolition facilitates land assembly or provides opportunities for development by other providers in the social or private housing sector, the case for demolition will be stronger. The ultimate aim of demolition however, is to provide a balance between supply and demand for council housing. The Directorate estimates that in addition to the annual number of 'Right to Buy' dwellings (145 per annum is forecasted - a total of 4350 over the life of the plan), a further 6250 is forecasted to be lost via either disposal or demolition. Years 1-10 will see stock reduced by 500 dwellings per year, reducing to 250 per annum until year 15. Clearly, this estimate will be kept under constant review to take account of changing demand for housing and also in order to ensure that 22 the action taken to dispose / demolish stock reflects the best course of action for the directorate as a whole. In attempting to balance supply and demand across the market we have been working closely with all housing partners. Within the housing subgroups detailed analysis has been undertaken by the functions constituting the housing providers. Most recently a focus has been in the areas of housing the homeless and working towards supporting people. The present homeless provision has been reviewed and will be outsourced in order that a better value service will be provided. Through supporting people the authority is presently developing a comprehensive knowledge of the services provided and will over the next two years be assessing needs with a view to improving services and their cost effectiveness. 6.2 IMPROVING THE CONDITION OF THE HOUSING STOCK It is the aim of the city council to provide every tenant with a decent home. However, we recognise that people now have choices in terms of where they live. As a result, council housing has to compete with what is available from registered social landlords (RSL's), private landlords and also new-build and 'second hand' accommodation in the private sector via owner occupation. Consequently, the city realises the importance of providing a 'product' which is competitive in terms of facilities, location and quality and also the importance of marketing the image of the city generally and council housing within the city specifically. In addition, the housing management and ancillary services which can be provided must be competitive, of the highest quality and accessible. In terms of the quality of the housing stock, the council intends to use it's major repairs allowance to improve the quality of it's housing in areas where current and projected future demand indicates that the area / estate is sustainable at least into the medium term. Identifying housing stock which is considered 'sustainable' is a task which is undertaken utilising a number of different tools; Existing level of empty (void) properties are considered Demand for the housing stock in the area is considered Tenant 'turnover' (how long people stay on the estate) is examined Projected demand for council housing in the area is considered, based on the housing market demand study. The condition of the stock is taken into account utilising information from the recently completed housing stock condition survey. The views of tenants and also housing management and maintenance staff are considered. 23 The above criteria are also used in order to prioritise the requirement for improvements to council stock. It is well recognised that we should no longer invest heavily in those estates which are in poorest condition or where demand is lowest as a priority. A detailed assessment of the impact of investment and the suitability of other options is an essential prerequisite before investment decisions are made. Although the specification of works will primarily depend upon local conditions and problems, identified after detailed tenant consultation, there are number of basic improvements which the city council will endeavour to deliver in respect of all improvement schemes. These have been identified as 'benchmark standards' within the recently completed housing stock condition survey and include; 6.3 Externally The installation of individual driveways and gates for cars (where possible) Improvements to off street parking (where drives are not possible) Securing the front boundary of properties by means of secure and attractive boundary fencing and gates. Internally Electrical rewire Double glazing Central heating Insulation New kitchen units New Bathroom units IMPROVING SERVICE DELIVERY The city council aims to continuously improve the way it provides services to it's tenants. Although a major re-structure of the housing management division has recently taken place. This is an interim position, to be reviewed after Best value and Housing Inspectorate reports are completed. Any further re-organisation required to improve or enhance service delivery will then take place. However, the interim structure already provides a framework for improved services. The creation of a best value team will ensure that performance is monitored and reviewed in order to deliver improved / cost-effective performance. 24 The establishment of a neighbour nuisance team will aim to improve immeasurably the quality of life of tenants affected by antisocial behaviour. Teams in housing management areas have been divided into specialist teams in order that they may concentrate their efforts on their particular sphere of work. Separate teams have been established in the following areas; Marketing and letting Void repair and maintenance Housing management and arrears The creation of group management areas maximises the effectiveness of the staffing resources in each area and also provides the basis for the division of the city into five areas for the purpose of establishing the Arms Length Management Model. 6.4 CORPORATE REGENERATION INITIATIVES When investment decisions are made, the presence of corporate regeneration initiatives is a major factor. In order to maximise the resources available for an initiative housing stock requiring attention within such an area will be given priority. Consequently, necessary resources can be identified and fed into the delivery plan(s) of the initiative, thus ensuring that regeneration is 'joined up' and holistic. The importance of 'bending' programmes - that is, committing financial resources to an area benefiting from government / other regeneration initiatives - is recognised. Housing Services Directorate is committed to contributing towards the comprehensive regeneration of the city and will play it's part to ensure that regeneration is sustainable. In terms of council housing, the following areas represent priorities due to the existence of major corporate regeneration initiatives; 6.5 Little Hulton Broughton (SRB 2) Eccles (Renewal Area) Kersal / Charlestown (New Deal for Communities) Langworthy / Seedley (SRB 5) ESTABLISHING PRIORITIES Having established that an area is in need of action in order to bring it to the required standard (outlined above), it is necessary to prioritise the work in order to ensure that those areas requiring immediate action 25 receive it. Prioritising work is a sensitive issue, particularly for tenants who, quite understandably, feel that their particular estate should receive attention at the earliest possible moment. The prioritising of improvement and/or repair work is undertaken by the Directorate's strategy division in conjunction with maintenance staff and also housing management staff. The views of tenants are also borne in mind when the prioritisation of works takes place. Ultimately, the priority list of works is approved by the Lead Member and Deputy Lead Member for Housing Services. However, there are occasions when it is sensible and / or cost effective to undertake certain types of work on estates which do not represent the most pressing priority. An example of this is the replacement of lead water mains. In normal circumstances, priority is given to those areas where the local water authority have indicated suffer from a higher lead content in their water supply than other areas. However, where lead mains exist, the work to replace them is brought forward on estates where kitchen replacement or environmental improvements takes place. It is sensible to aim towards complete replacement of all lead mains across the city and this is something that the city council aims to deliver. However, where the replacement of lead mains will occur after other major improvement works and will lead to disruption to the recently completed works or to the tenant, then that work is brought forward, to be undertaken before the improvement programme starts. This prevents damage to newly installed kitchens, newly installed tarmac drives or to tenant's decoration. In light of the government's campaign against social exclusion, the socioeconomic position of the community affected is also taken into consideration when deciding upon priorities. The following list represents the primary criteria (in descending level of importance); a. Where works are necessary in order to ensure property meets the minimum fitness standard b. Where the area / estate is considered to be sustainable for residential use into the medium term, but demand for housing is in decline or there is an emerging problem with void properties, and where it is believed investment can reverse this trend c. Work is necessary in order to support a wider regeneration initiative 26 d. The area / estate under consideration is within the 20% most deprived wards across the city and the necessity for improvement works has been identified but not otherwise prioritised e. Work is taking place in the estate / area and it is necessary to undertake additional works in order to prevent future disruption to the newly completed work or tenants f. Additional resources are available from external sources which must be used in specific areas and / or for specific types of work. Given the sensitive nature of this issue, it is difficult to involve tenants on individual estates in the process of establishing priorities for action. Consequently, the criteria identified above will, during the next 12 months, be put to the tenant's forum in order to obtain their approval to the criteria used. Any amendments suggested by tenants, leaseholders etc. will, in future, be included within the criteria for establishing priorities. The way that this process works in practice will be constantly monitored and reviewed in order to ensure that it continues to represent the most efficient and effective means of repairing and/or improving the council's housing stock. 6.6 SUMMARY OF PRIORITIES We have set out what the priorities of the council are in respect of the future of council housing. We have identified the need to ensure that the property we have available more accurately reflects what existing and potential future tenants will want in the future. We have set out how we intend to improve the quality of the council housing stock in future years so that our homes compete with what other housing providers in the city can offer and we have set out ways in which the housing management service will be improved to cope with the challenges currently facing the council. We have outlined how we will respond to initiatives which are given priority by the city council as a whole and how our future investment will reflect the importance placed on the regeneration of these areas. We have identified the way that we plan to prioritise areas for works so as to ensure that communities may be sustained and social exclusion tackled whilst continuing to improve the overall quality of our housing stock. The information provided sets out a list of priorities for the council to tackle in respect of it's housing stock and the ways in which these have been arrived at. The council will continue to keep the way it identifies priorities under review in order to ensure that the system remains effective 27 and reflects the needs and resources available to the city council and also the demands of the tenants of the city council. 28 7.0 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS This section will provide an explanation of the Business Plan Model and how present strategies will change Salford’s financial position over the next thirty years. As the financial viability of present strategies cease to be achievable within the next two to three years, detailed analysis will focus upon steps that can be taken within that period. The appraisals set out: how the present housing revenue account has fed into the business planning model; the financial projections in the short, medium and long term; how far strategies go to achieving the goals of the Housing Department; what steps can be made to optimise the achievements of the objectives of the Housing Department through using a variety of strategies. The level of analysis throughout the business plan allows for consideration of the global strategic issues but does not offer an analysis by stock type or area. This work will be completed by the end of the year. Income and expenditure analysis has been achieved which highlights the key issues facing the Housing Department and allows for analysis in terms of both capital and revenue resources. INCOME (Revenue) Rental income is the main source of income to the HRA. It is anticipated that rents will create an income of approximately £70 million. This is projected to rise to £73 million in five years and £123 million over thirty years. These figures increase slowly in real terms due to the decreasing stock. This is due to the effects of stock clearance and right to buy sales. 150 100 50 29 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 0 £ year 1 7.1 £ Rental income is substantially affected by the level of voids and bad debts which make up 4.7% of rental income from stock and relate, in the first year, to approximately £3 million. Bad debts and voids rates are key target areas for improvement. Voids rates are accounted for in BVPI 171. Our targets for this area are set out below. BVPI 68 Actual 99/00 Est 00/01 Average. 94 77 Relet timesAverage days Weekly days Target 01/02 Target 04/05 56 days 29 days Top Quart. 99/00 29 days Rent £ (real terms) Steps to reduce the level of voids include a marketing policy and seeking tenants from outside the local area. Recent partnerships have been developed with the Manchester Consortium and supported by the inhouse asylum team. However, as already outlined demand for housing across the Salford area is expected to continue to fall short of supply and attracting demand to fill the housing stock will not be feasible within the present market. Other rental income arises from fees, tolls, charges, shops and other nondwelling rents. This constitutes an annual income of nearly £4 million. Within this capital resource the shops constitute a realisable capital opportunity that would assist in meeting some of the more immediate capital expenditure needs for the housing stock. However, the low financial cost of supporting this resource makes it a strong revenue producing resource grossing £0.5 million a year. Further, although the realisable value of the shops would assist in providing much needed funding it would not significantly extend the viability of the HRA or have an impact upon an investment strategy relating to the need to improve the stock over the next five years. A more detailed analysis of the value of the properties is currently being undertaken. Once this work is completed the opportunity cost of realising the assets will be revisited Right to buy sales are set at 145 properties per annum and are not expected to drop due to the effects of stock clearance as purchases are predominantly in areas of higher demand. Stock clearance is set at 500 properties per year for the first ten years, then dropping to 250 per year. This is intended to reflect the housing strategy of stock clearance in areas of low demand in order to reduce the costs of maintaining unoccupied stock. 30 A change in the rents charged and rents policy is anticipated to be in place next year bringing Salford’s policy in line with recent government guidance on rents. However, prior to tenant consultation, the anticipated rise in rents over the next five years can not be confirmed and have not been added into the model. 7.2 CAPITAL AND OTHER INCOME Major sources of capital within the model are the major repairs allowance at £16 million in the first year with a gradual increase to £23 million over the thirty years and the HIP allocation. Receipts of around £1.3 million over the first few years also make a significant contribution along with nearly £2 million of one off SRB and lottery funding. As a debt authority, with a low level of council house sales, capital income from this source is not anticipated to create any significant changes to the future funding of capital expenditure. Future initiatives to raise funding through SRB, lottery and PFI funding will be sought and may become key to improving housing conditions. As the outcome of such bids are unknown they have not been included beyond the present approved funding. 7.3 EXPENDITURE 7.3.1 Expenditure(management costs) Management costs constitute £17.5 million. The inputs require greater analysis in order that the fixed and variable costs can be separated. However, for present purposes the need for radical change in the income or expenditure of the HRA has made the priority of refining the management costs to fixed and variable costs a task to be completed for later this year. Below is the present BVPI for the weekly costs per local authority dwelling of repairs. BVPI 65a Actual 99/00 Mngt. £10.14 Costs per week/per property Est 00/01 Target 01/02 Target 04/05 £10.92 £11.31 ----- 31 Top Quart. 99/00 £7.24 These figures reflect present service costs that relate to the dedication of the Council to providing an excellent service in management intensive areas. This commitment will in future years be more realistically analysed through comparison with our benchmark group. 7.3.2 Expenditure (responsive and cyclical) Expenditure is anticipated to be £527 per property. This constitutes the revenue expenditure on the stock. These figures have not been decreased to reflect stock changes and the resultant change in per property cost of maintenance. The identification of properties and resultant affect on costs has still to be achieved. However, it is anticipated that the figure will marginally rise as the stock that is demolished is that which is presently in the ‘band C’ void category and receives little investment. In addition, information from the stock condition survey, as explained earlier, demonstrates the need for extensive work to be undertaken to bring the condition of homes up to the decent homes standard. Without this investment, the revenue cost of maintaining the stock will increase with the non-capitalised work increasing to extend the life of failing components that are in need of renewal. An estimate of the rising costs anticipated have not been included due to the difficulty of making realistic estimates and the commitment of the Housing Department to improve the standard of housing. BVPI 65b Actual 99/00 Repair £14.93 costs per week/per property Estimat e 00/01 £13.78 Target 01/02 Target 04/05 Top Quart. 99/00 £16.25 ----- £10.74 As shown in the target set for repair costs, it is anticipated that they will rise as a result of our general progression towards a just in time maintenance strategy. 7.3.3 Expenditure (catch up and planned maintenance) In line with the findings in the stock condition survey expenditure on the stock of a planned nature are in fact primarily catch up works and are accounted as such in the model. Present capitalised expenditure is £837 per property. 32 Expenditure is shown in the first nine years which reflects the need to catch up on existing planned programmes of work and outstanding problems of disrepair. Expenditure from year ten onwards is then passed over to the major repairs budget. 7.3.4 Capital finance and the major repairs reserve Present capital spend is resourced through capital income and is assisted by revenue contributions to capital. By making cuts in budgets it is intended that capital expenditure will fall over the next three years in order to make a sustainable investment strategy. The major repairs reserve has been a valuable boost in enabling capital expenditure. It has been dedicated to improving the stock. However, the stock condition survey, undertaken by FPD Savilles reports the resources needed for repairs and maintenance as well as improvements based upon the condition of the stock. The report highlights a need for a substantial injection of resources. The projected underspend on capital is nearly £185 million capital over the next five years plus approximately £56 million in revenue. 7.4 SUPPORTED HOUSING COSTS An assessment of the cost and future charges necessary under supporting people are presently being assessed and will be highlighted in next years plan. It is anticipated that a small net saving will be made but that it will not constitute a significant change in the operating account. 7.5 RENTS Rents are expected to be increased by one pound fifty next year and work begun on implementing a new rents structure. 33 8.0 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS Operating and Capital Account, Year 1 When income and expenditure for the year 2001/2002 a net revenue surplus is anticipated of nearly £13.5 million but does not take into account the expenditure necessary to cover the cost of external loans of £5.5 million. The result is a net operating deficit for the year of £1 million. This is supported by a surplus of £5.6 million built up in previous years. Following present strategies the result is a surplus in the year of £5 million. The capital account shows a expenditure and financing staying at around £27 million. Year 2 In year 2 the effects of the year on year overspend continue to use up reserves. The deficit for year 2 is £2.6 million leaving a surplus for the year of £2.5 million pounds. Year 3 to 30 In year three the surplus on the operating account is £2.6 million. This reduces the surplus to £2.5 million. Then in the following year the overspend of £1.5 million decreases the surplus to just under a million pounds. This remains the case until year 12 when the account falls in to deficit. The capital account falls in to deficit at a rate of £2 million per year. This will need to be resolved through reductions in capital spending. Operating Account Surplus/Deficit in Pounds Over Fifteen Years 6000 4000 2000 0 -2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -4000 -6000 -8000 34 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Surplus/deficit Major Repairs and Improvements Financing This account shows a check out total of £2 million in year 3. This reflects a need to reduce capital spending an overspend of £2 million that must be reduced and highlights how present spending plans are unsustainable in the near future for capital and in total expenditure terms within five years. Surplus/Deficit Shown in Pounds Over Five Years 0 -1000 1 2 3 4 5 -2000 -3000 Surplus/deficit -4000 -5000 -6000 Below is an outline of the necessary and anticipated expenditure over the next five years. The figures represent a spending strategy that will seek to bring the stock up to the decent homes standard by 2010. Expenditure will be targeted at those elements of the stock that affect the standard with an element of exceptional expenditure investing in response to tenant consultation. This adds clarity to the financial picture demonstrating how the low spending policy of the Council has created a need to improve the stock. Estimated expenditure condition survey Capital Year Catch Prelim up on s current major plan repairs contin. 2001/2 45 8 2002/3 14 3 2003/4 30 5 2004/5 9 2 2005/6 29 5 Total 127 23 needed to meet the needs set out in the stock Estat e Exception al contingent works Improve ments Total 2 2 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 1 1 23 17 19 20 20 19 94 79 45 63 33 54 274 35 Catch up works for DHS 0 28 42 57 57 174 9.0 OPTIONS AVAILABLE TO ADRESS THE AREAS OF CONCERN 9.1 WHOLE STOCK OPTIONS In September 2000, the city council appointed HACAS Chapman Hendy to consider the most appropriate long-term option for the HRA housing stock within the city. The consultants considered the following options: Continued management and investment by city council Transferring management to Arms Length Companies. (ALC) Revising maintenance strategies Identification of additional funding sources Stock Transfer The achievements of each strategy is judged against the position should the present spending strategy be continued and against the objectives of the Housing Department as set out by the Mission Statement and Key Objectives. Highlighted below are some of the key factors affecting the success of any strategy as set out throughout this report: there are large areas of deprivation; the housing stock needs around a £1.4 billion investment to bring the condition of the housing stock up to the standards set out by the government in the decent homes standard; crime and fear of crime is causing people to move out of their homes and out of Salford; there is a need to continue to perform to high standard reaching a 3 star rating under the best value regime should the Housing Department wish to access all the new funding resources being made available; there is an over supply of housing across Salford although significant shortfalls in demand are area specific and relate to the areas with the poorest housing; that where possible costs have been cut to bring reduced resources in line with expenditure; that when compared to other similar authorities the service we provide is above average when faced with similar resource constraints. 36 9.1.1 CONTINUED MANAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT BY CITY COUNCIL Short term The present strategy enables a further two years of investment in the housing stock and service before spending cuts will need to be implemented to avoid deficit. Such a policy will create: the present level of continued work in partnership with private sector initiatives that is beginning to combat the low demand for housing across the City; the continued investment in key areas and clearance of unused stock; the targeting of investment towards the stock tenants would/are presently keen to occupy; the present level of involvement of tenants in decision making and continue the development of tenant involvement; the gradual improvement in the provision of facilities and services for people with special needs; the continuance of present initiatives to encourage investment in the City creating more sustainable and mixed tenure communities; provision of a value for money service to customers; continued slowing of the migration of population out of the housing stock and Salford; provision of programs that allow for the investment in the popular areas of the stock over the next two years. The present strategy is effective in meeting the objectives for the City and the housing department within the resource constraints. However, a lack of resources is acknowledged as being the restricting factor in enabling progress. Present strategies are only effective in slowing present decline of the housing stock and the sustainability of the City's communities. Medium term Taking the medium term as being a period from 2003/04 to 2010 spending cuts, largely of a capital nature, are necessary. In order to achieve these cuts it would need to reduce spending where possible whilst providing the best service possible and achieving at least the minimum standards of house condition and landlord service. Areas where such savings can be achieved would radically cut community based targets and government objectives to improve the standard of living through restricting both community and housing development. These are 37 areas that are already under considerable resource pressure and in cutting these budgets further there is great concern for the welfare of the community and the standard of housing provided. The clearest opportunity for change would be to restrict environmental works which would need to be cut by around 50%. Existing commitments may mean that it is necessary to also look to reducing the responsive repairs service in order to fund the existing commitments on the environmental program. These options are considered in more detail in the maintenance strategy set out below. Over the medium term the option will create: limited ability to target investment at the stock tenants are presently keen to occupy in addition to failing to invest the additional £28 million in the stock in 2002/3 and £42 million in 2003/4 as set out as being required by the stock condition survey to raise the condition of council homes to the decent homes standard; the continuance of present initiatives to encourage investment in the City creating more sustainable and mixed tenure communities. However, initiatives would be limited to seeking new resources as there are no significant areas of spending that can be reduced to enable the redirection of budgets; the provision of a value for money service would increasingly come into question as the effects of under investment in the external environment of properties and potential requirement to move to a just in time planned maintenance strategy and limited response maintenance results in poorer condition housing and particularly and poor environments; the potential of increased migration out of the City; It is anticipated that the effects of the decreased investment in the housing stock will result in the City becoming a less desirable area and the properties increasingly failing to reach the decent homes standard. In addition the lack of investment in the housing stock is expected to cause increased repair and maintenance costs, increased voids and an exacerbation of the present problems with creating a sustainable communities. Long term The problems arising in the medium term continue to develop. The analysis of the medium term also indicates how the strategy of decreased investment in the housing stock is likely to lead to a long term resource crisis. 38 This would be caused by falling rents revenue due to out migration and an increasing gap between the condition of the stock and the requirements of the decent homes standard and the standards sought by tenants. Conclusion Ongoing investment and management by the City Council will continue the excellent work done across the City and allow the network of community links that feed into the Councils strategy and service delivery to continue to develop. This option is preferred by both tenants and Councillors who also consider the Council to be the best placed organisation to deliver the housing service. However, all parties are aware that the housing service operates in a rapidly changing environment and preferable options for service delivery will always be considered and much of the commitment of stakeholders in continuing to back the Council as the preferred service provider is based on the service that is currently provided and the commitment to improve. The present spending plans and, as a result the service provided is not sustainable beyond two years with our anticipated income and expenditure. It is not possible to improve the condition of the housing stock and services whilst achieving the necessary cuts. Our commitments to improve and meet the standards being set by tenants and through best value would also not be met. Cutting expenditure and limiting the potential for improving services is not seen as an acceptable option. In the long term this option will result in a fall in the quality of the service provided and the need to look to other, presently less able, providers to take over the stock. 9.1.2 ARMS LENGTH COMPANY Short Term Due to the set up time involved in establishing an Arms Length Company that can benefit from additional resourcing the short term is assumed to be 2003-2008. Establishing an arms length company model to cover all of the stock would, subject to meeting the relevant performance criteria provide Salford with the means to access funding and undertake extensive works. A study of this option was completed in June assessing the opportunity cost of pursuing arms length status. The report assumes that a successful bid for additional funding for 2000 properties receiving £5,000 each. 39 This would allow us to make some headway in to the 10,000 dwellings that do not meet the decent homes standard. Taking the assumptions from the HACAS Chapman Hendy report such a policy will enable: a review of the work in partnership with private sector initiatives that are beginning to combat the low demand for housing across the City with a view to developing new initiatives and creating demand for long term investment in the area; the level of investment in key areas could be fully resourced in terms of providing decent homes, a service required by tenants and an investment in creating a sustainable environment for housing and commerce; the targeting of investment would fund the necessary work to the properties in order that they are brought up to a decent homes standard and the removal or adaptation of properties to create a supply of accommodation that meets demand; tenant involvement would be radically increased in order that local people establish what needs to be provided in a newly developed area and by the enthusiasm of tenants for developing their communities when the appropriate resources are available; the improvement in the provision of facilities and support for people with special needs will enable a strategic partnership between service providers and housing to create sustainable high quality homes and services. Strategy setting will also take into account the detailed analysis of needs and value of present service provision through the information gathered by the supporting people initiative; the development of initiatives to encourage investment in the City creating more sustainable and mixed tenure communities; provision of a value for money service to customers; continued slowing of the migration of population out of the housing stock and the City; provision of programs that allow for the investment in the popular areas of the stock over three to five years; meeting the standards established in the decent homes standard; create a sustainable financial strategy. This strategy should enable the renewal of an area of significant parts of Salford and bring the standard of accommodation up to those required by the decent homes standard whilst fundamentally improving the standard of living for the community. The stock condition survey highlights the need to spend £374 million over the first five years and 1.4 billion pounds over thirty years. This equates to £1,610 per property per year and over thirty years approximately £48,350 per property. 40 In this context the guideline figure of 5,000 pounds per property will offer a significant resource in meeting the need to improve the condition of the stock. Medium Term The medium term for this strategy is seen to be 2007-2015 The assumption has been made that the investment in the housing stock will create: a review of the work in partnership with private sector initiatives that are beginning to combat the low demand for housing across the City with a view to developing new initiatives and creating high demand for investment in the area; the level of investment in key areas could be fully resourced in terms of moving towards decent homes, a service required by tenants and an investment in creating a sustainable environment for housing and commerce; the removal or adaptation of properties to create a supply of accommodation that meets need; tenant involvement to develop as the responsibility of the arms length company and the involvement of tenants would be seen as a key requirement of the organisation; the development of initiatives to encourage investment in the City during this period is seen as the key to success of the medium and long term strategies. Housing and the environmental works will have been resourced to raise standards. The resources to maintain this standard will also be in place through the additional rental income coming from low voids rates caused by the additional interest and value of the area. In addition it is expected that an area will have been created where its own economy will support unsubsidised growth and development; the provision of a value for money service to customers should be enhanced by the interest of the private sector in investing in the area; migration is anticipated towards the end of this period. Primarily driven by commerce and then by people moving into the area as it will be desirable area to live; investment in the stock during this period should be resourced by existing sources of funding. Any additional resourcing needed should be accessible through private investment. 41 Through the medium term it will be for the arms length company to have used the investment in the housing stock in the initial years in such a manner as to create a desirable location for both commerce and homeowners are attracted into the area. Future investment that is needed in the area should then be accessed from the private sector with a view to resourcing both improved standards of living and the growth of industry. Long Term In the long term it is intended that a structure of an umbrella arms length companies will have been established covering the whole of the stock. It is believed that by this time the present over supply of accommodation will have been resolved through regenerating industry, creating a safer community, improving the condition of all housing and by clearance of stock for which no demand is perceived regardless of the quality of that accommodation, Conclusion The Arms Length Company model offers the opportunity for the Council to access the funds necessary to undertake much of the capital improvements works that have been highlighted as needed by the stock condition survey. The requirements for obtaining the funding focus upon the resource needs of the Housing Department, a new organisational structure and way of operating and a high standard of service delivery. The service standards required meet with those presently targeted and the present structure already lends itself to the structure required. As a result it appears that the Housing Department is capable of accessing the funding available providing sufficient resources and officer time are dedicated to meting these goals. Should all of the stock access the guideline level of funding available over the next five to ten years approximately 150 million pounds of additional resources will be made available. This will pay for significant improvements in the stock, customer satisfaction and performance. 9.1.3 REVISED MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES The present maintenance strategy sets out a program of: a repairs strategy of repairing as component parts fail. This often includes replacement prior to that dictated by the industry standard; repainting programmes; a ten year cyclical program for windows and doors; 42 full modernisation in regeneration areas. This mixed approach to maintenance is broadly based upon seeking to maintain industry standards as a minimum. Movement towards a just in time maintenance strategy and a decreased planned program of work would create savings and either prevent or substantially delay the HRA falling into deficit. Short Term This initiative could be implemented by the next financial year and in the short term could constitute the next five years. The would result in: continued partnership working across the district with broadly the same level of limited resources except in areas where present programmes include pro-active work that is intended to assist in meeting the wider objectives of partners; a position where the standard and quality of properties would decline causing problems for initiatives aimed at creating more sustainable communities; limited opportunity to target resources towards areas where demand for stock can be identified and a failure to make any progress towards meeting the decent homes standard; a situation where tenant involvement would continue, however groups will have limited enthusiasm for agreeing to and monitoring standards that go little way to meeting the standards of accommodation they are presently seeking; little by way of investment into specialised accommodation which raises particular concerns for people who are vulnerable or less able in the community should the condition of the environment and housing stock be allowed to fall; provision of a value for money service to customers in the longer term as this strategy would save sufficient sums to sustain the housing revenue account in the short to medium term although the poor condition of the stock would allow for competition from the private sector; little work to slow and may result in the acceleration of the migration of population out of the housing stock and the City; the potential for the major repairs reserve to be the sole source for capital spend and allow for a reserve to be established to fund the expenditure necessary in planned programs as components need replacing. 43 Initially this strategy will create reserves within the housing Revenue Account. However, the cost will be a fall in the standard of accommodation and the environment of Salford. As this is a significant factor in reducing tenant satisfaction and causing the migration out of the district and increasing levels of deprivation it is inevitable that there will be a significant cost of using this strategy. Medium term The medium term for this strategy is seen to be 2005-2015 An assumption has been made that the just in time strategy results in a fall in the condition of the stock and surrounding environment. Just in time in the medium term will include only minimal work that would enhance the environment or the quality of life of the community as the condition of the stock is increasingly dependant on repairs as components traditionally replaced are maintained for longer. The potential for increasing deprivation also causes concern for migration of people out of the stock and Salford. The need to offer a value for money service is also a concern with a fall in the service and maintenance provided whilst tenants will be facing year on year rent rises. Through the medium term the condition of the stock is expected to worsen with increases in response maintenance being necessary. The ramifications upon the quality of life for people in Salford cause concern and fail to meet the corporate objectives and attack the long term goals of creating sustainable communities. Long Term In the long term the benefit of reserving the finances to fund future maintenance of the stock will have enabled the Housing Department to continue to provide a housing service above the statutory fitness levels and where possible to have funded as prudent a spending plan as possible. However, in doing so decline across the district is likely to have adversely affected the quality of life across Salford and created a migration out of the area and more particularly the Council stock. This has obvious and concerning affects on the income upon the revenue streams upon which this spending strategy is based and is likely to create its failure over a thirty year period. Conclusion The present maintenance strategy has been successful in providing a value for money service across the stock and maintaining it to a high standard with the resources that have been available. 44 Increased knowledge about the condition of the stock and their component parts is now providing the information needed to refine our maintenance strategy. At present the maintenance strategy works on a combination of traditional spending programs, industry standards, and standards set by members and tenants aimed at providing customer satisfaction. The present strategy, however, is no longer financially sustainable. A review of the maintenance strategy is presently in progress with a view to making the necessary cuts in expenditure whilst maintaining the stock to as high a standard as possible. The maintenance strategy will to take into account the additional resources that are needed to achieve the changes required to access the funds available under arms length status and any match funding other additional government initiatives as in the past with SRB funding. The maintenance strategy will target attaining the decent homes standard where ever possible and will focus expenditure accordingly. However, with present resources there is concern that little progress can be achieved and customer satisfaction adversely affected. 9.1.4 IDENTIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL FUNDING SOURCES We have presumed any successful bids e.g. N.R.F, N.W.D.A would result in funding from 2004. Bids will relate to small numbers of stock but could be essential to a comprehensive strategy. Short term From 2004-2008 successful bids would assist areas across the City enabling: work on developing dedicated initiatives to regenerate areas, where possible, in partnership with others; investment in key areas and unused stock; localised improvement of the stock and environment with the decent homes standard as a realisable objective; increased involvement of tenants as part of the work on the new initiatives; improvement in the provision of facilities and services for people with special needs; continuance of present initiatives to encourage investment in the City creating more sustainable and mixed tenure communities; provision a value for money service to customers; continued slowing of the migration of population out of the housing stock and the City; 45 provision of programs that allow for investment in the popular areas of the stock. These strategies although piecemeal are of substantial benefit in meeting our goals. The size of the initiatives is the limiting factor in meeting the goals for the whole of the community. Medium term Taking the medium term as being a period from 2008 to 2015 the investment in the areas will have enabled their growth and development. Appropriate planning and programs of development will enable these areas to sustain themselves however, their affect on the remainder of Salford is limited and the corporate strategies for regenerating the Salford and making a sustainable community are limited. Over the medium term the policy will enable: partnership working and private sector initiatives where the level of development in the area has created an environment that would attract private sector funding; having received the injection of funding over the initial years limited resources within the Housing Revenue Account will restrict the potential of future investment; the present level of involvement of tenants in decision making and that developed through the initiative would continue; through initial investment much of the capital resources necessary to support those with special needs will be in place. Funding of the services necessary will constitute part of the development proposals and should be sustainable. Development of these services and other capital resources will be limited; the continuance of present initiatives to encourage investment in the City creating more sustainable and mixed tenure communities through offering a more appealing environment however limited ongoing resources and may restrict progress; the provision of a value for money service due to the improved infra structure; a decrease in migration out of the City. Long term It is in the longer term that concerns with these strategies arise. Should the environment of Salford as a whole not improve the revenue implication for the Housing Revenue Account as movement out of the decaying stock occurs creates great concern. 46 With decreased revenue expenditure would have to be reduced and as a result the housing service provided. Conclusion These additional resources offer value for money and make considerable contributions to improving the environment. They also offer improvements that are sought by local people and tenants. However, due to the need to match fund these initiatives out of HRA resources results in cuts having to be made in other areas and an adverse impact upon efforts to meet the decent homes standard. The value for money offered by these initiatives raises the issues of opportunity cost in selecting between improved maintenance or match funding initiatives. Once the maintenance strategy has been put in place the opportunity cost of bidding for additional resources under such initiatives will be carefully considered. Presently this choice is not a difficult one as the combination of cutting expenditure in order to match fund these initiatives is achievable whilst still providing reasonable service standards and gaining local improvements at half their true cost. As resources become increasingly limited this choice may not be as easily achievable whilst maintaining an acceptable service. 9.1.5 STOCK TRANSFER This option could provide, through the ability to have debt written off many opportunities for the partner registered social landlords to work towards meeting the objectives of Salford. However, given the size and age of the debt held by the authority there are concerns over our ability to cover the cost of having that debt released and the size of any capital receipt that would be realised and could be put to the benefit of the community. Such a strategy would take at least until 2004 to put in place and it is difficult to assess it viability at this stage. Short term A short term policy running from 2005-2010 will create: increased partnership with private sector initiatives that are beginning to combat the low demand for housing across the City as the stock is shown to be more appealing the continued investment in key areas and clearance of unused stock; 47 the targeting of investment towards the stock tenants would/are presently keen to occupy with the ability to fund major improvements in the stock but probably not to the decent homes standard or to the standards sought by tenants; the present level of involvement of tenants in decision making and continue the development of tenant involvement; the improvement in the provision of facilities and services for people with special needs; the continuance of present initiatives to encourage investment in the City creating more sustainable and mixed tenure communities although the more business like footing of registered social landlords moves them away from a focus upon the wider community strategic goals; provision of a value for money service to customers through an increased ability to invest; continued slowing of the migration of population out of the housing stock and the City; provision of programs that allow for the investment in the popular areas of the stock and clearance of less popular areas in order to ensure their financial viability over the foreseeable future. This strategy is effective in meeting the objectives for the City and the housing department presuming funding is accessible. Medium term Taking the medium term as being a period from 2010 to 2020 it would be necessary for the registered social landlord to maintain the improved stock and finance its debt. Assuming the level of investment the RSL is capable of accessing is sufficient to meet the investment needs of the community then a sustainable plan that maintains rental incomes and stems migration out of the City is plausible. However, the level of funding necessary does not fit with the level of spending that is needed to achieve sustainability. Over the medium term the policy will enable the development of the Housing Departments goals following on from the recent investment in the housing stock and the financial breathing space that it provides to undertake pro-active work. Long term Concerns over this strategy extend to concerns over the viability of a long term strategies to improve the quality of life of people in Salford through the transfer of its housing stock. 48 Limited funding would pass to the general fund and a registered social landlord will have to focus upon financial strategies that preserve the value and financial viability of the stock. This will constitute a major challenge and will not allow for a broader strategic focus on the long term. Conclusion Stock transfer will continue to be considered as an option. Above is an outline of the factors influencing decisions over transferring the whole stock.. This highlights the potential that the nature of the debt relating too the stock may make this an unaffordable option. In addition it is not an option preferred by stakeholders. However, should the financial position change then the opportunities transfer may offer in terms of providing access to funds and improving the stock may become preferable. However, both financially an in terms of service standards the present strategy is providing the best all round service available in the City. 9.1.6 A COHERENT LONG TERM STRATEGY Having assessed local needs and the available resources it is inevitable that the future will hold many challenges. A strategy of seeking to access all of the potential strategies must be adopted with resources targeted at meeting these objectives. In some circumstances such as with SRB, NDFC, NRF initiatives match funding is needed from the HRA and the limit on funds may restrict such options being adopted. The position faced is one where a review of spending plans is necessary to resource the necessary commitment to accessing new funding over the next five years with the intention of securing funding to develop the majority of the stock. Such funding is most likely to be accessed through establishing arms length status and accessing the additional funding that is available. As outlined above the affect of not seeking new sources of funding is likely to have a dramatic and adverse across the whole of Salford. Through a range of strategies it appears possible to deliver a strategy for long term regeneration of Salford. To achieve this there is a need to sustain and perhaps improve the Housing Departments performance. With little additional resources this may be difficult to achieve. Reducing environmental works and possibly moving towards a just in time maintenance strategy does not achieve the service that is hoped for, nor will this meet tenant aspirations. Consequently, the opportunity cost of providing the present level of nonstatutory services must be put into question and answers provided as to where tenants see savings would be best made. 49 The only alternative to such a strategy is to look for other ways of raising funds whilst meeting the best interests of the community. A small scale transfer of some of the more valuable stock may assist in funding the future. In order to assist in showing the position more clearly, below is a table showing the individual strategies. The areas marked in green show where the strategy is fundable and would result in an improving service; orange is affordable but puts into question the quality of the service; red indicates affordable but not a good service and black indicated not affordable. 9.2 USE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES The consideration and selection of available options will ensure that the housing service provided is able to respond in a flexible manner to emerging priorities whilst ensuring that the resources available to the city council are maximised. The housing directorate receives money from several sources to improve it's housing stock. However, they can be broken down into two major categories; Major Repairs Allowance Capital allocations The council has decided that the housing capital allocation will be used to improve the quality of the private sector housing stock - owner occupied and private rented housing - due to the high level of disrepair amongst this stock in some areas. Basically, the major repairs allowance - given by the government especially to improve council housing - will be used to improve the council housing stock. The overall aim is to carry out the demolition of properties which do not have a viable future, either due to the condition of the property or a lack of demand. The backlog of repairs and improvement works will then be carried out on the basis of identified priorities, utilising the methods outlined in section 6.5 (above). The works undertaken will reflect the need to ensure that all properties meet the decent homes standard and also to ensure the long term sustainability of the housing stock by providing a 'product' and environment which is capable of competing with that of other housing providers across the city. 50 Conclusion As outlined in the above conclusions a mixed strategy is to be developed. This strategy has grown from the decision that the best placed organisation for providing social housing in the present council stock continues to be the council. In order to continue to provide the service the housing revenue account must refine its use of resources, performance must be improved and as a result additional resources must be accessed. There are a number of sources available. The largest pool of new resources available is through the arms length option and as a result this is the focus for the departments efforts. In addition the department will be seeking all opportunities for increasing resources. Match funding initiatives will be considered on their individual merits and funding dedicated where appropriate. 9.3 SUMMARY OF AVAILABLE OPTIONS The city council response to business planning has ensured that there is a three tier approach to the selection of the most appropriate options for the future of the housing service. At a city wide level, all of the major options have been assessed and arms length company status identified as the most appropriate vehicle for the future management of the council's housing stock. This will be complimented by a range of options which will be implemented at a more local level in order to maximise the resources available to the city council to improve it's stock and also to ensure that the supply of council housing more accurately matches identified demand for housing. A system of identifying stock whose sustainability is under threat has been identified in order that a detailed assessment of the future of the area and options available to the city council identified. Consequently, Private Finance initiative, demolition, investment and potential small-scale stock transfer will all be considered in order to ensure that the objectives of the HRA business plan are met. Maintenance strategies will largely reflect the need to maximise the life of components by moving towards replacement on a 'just in time' basis. However, priorities will emerge where replacement is necessary ahead of the time of major component failure. The circumstances under which this will be necessary are identified at section (above). 51 52 10.0 OUR FUTURE STRATEGY Earlier sections of this document have identified the current issues facing Salford's housing service and the priorities for action which have been identified. We have also identified the options which have been considered to ensure that service delivery and the quality of council housing is improved in the future. In this section, we shall set out our short, medium and long-term strategy to ensure continuous improvement and ensure that all of our council housing meets the decent homes standard by 2010. 10.1 WHAT WE INTEND TO DO Over the next year it is intended that the development of the business planning process will have achieved: 10.2 Analysis of the financial viability of the existing stock by geographical area and, where possible, stock type; profiled the different strategies for stock investment or transfer initiatives and established a timetable for implementation of these various initiatives; a continually updating process by which the housing needs information, the stock condition information, rental charges and maintenance programs feed into the business plan and strategy; a detailed analysis of HRA assets and spend; performance targets for developing the business plan and targets for both raising income, implementing spending programs and improving the standards of accommodation and service. MARKETING STRATEGY In line with the development of the housing strategy the marketing strategy develops a more business like approach and focuses on the needs of the market in a much broader sense. This is being resourced through the creation of a marketing team and the development of a marketing strategy. The strategy was completed in September 2000 and has set in place a strong base for revitalising our core business of housing and housing service provision. A housing market study has been undertaken set in the context of our core strategy of reducing the number of void properties and creating sustainable communities. The study highlighted opportunities for market penetration in to the growing areas of specialist housing for the elderly and young adults as well as emphasising the need to bring together a 53 mismatch between the perceptions of the public and the service being provided. This has required a dual process of, firstly, staff training to develop skills in identifying customers needs and highlighting the housing options that are available and appropriate and, secondly, advertising to make the community aware of the housing and services that are provided. Research has also led to the conclusion that there are some areas where the opportunity cost of targeting resources in to an area clearly points to the need for stock clearance and the development of sustainable alternative housing solutions for the households that subsequently need relocating. A process for monitoring the marketing strategy has been implemented. This monitoring will establish performance standards for: the knowledge of staff about the services provided and objectives; the satisfaction of staff ; the readership by staff of the monthly staff news; the number of lets created through advertising; the raising of awareness in the target markets of the availability of accommodation and services and enhance the image of social housing working in partnership with other local authorities; the standardisation of image across the directorate leading to increased brand identity. In addition two key objectives have been identified as objectives for the future. Firstly, the development of a segmented marketing policy. This will target research at gaining more knowledge about the diverse needs of the community in order to establish a segmented marketing strategy aimed at linking local people to the housing they wish to access. Secondly, to increase the accessibility of services to those in local authority accommodation and those seeking accommodation. 54 11.0 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OVER TIME The implications of the financial projections are considered to be of paramount importance to the long term success of the housing provision. Capital expenditure is being reviewed with the intention of reducing the capital spend and resultant need for unaffordable contributions from revenue to capital. These refinements are going to be achieved partly through reducing spend in the areas that have the least adverse influence on the service provided to tenants and stock condition, and partly through improving our present spending strategy. 11.1 REDUCING SPENDING A view as to the areas where reductions in spending is most appropriate has highlighted spending on environmental works and increasing the clearance of properties for which there is no demand but maintenance costs are being incurred. In addition the traditional spending plans that have been established to reflect the needs of each area are to be reviewed to consider the areas requiring less investment. An approximation of the potential savings shows a £3 million pound reduction in budgets would have only a marginal affect on achievements under the decent homes standard but may not be the areas that tenants would wish to see cuts. 11.2 IMPROVING SPENDING STRATEGIES This change in approach will largely be based upon the information provided by the stock condition survey. Unfortunately analysis of the necessary spend detailing particular properties is still to be provided by Savilles. Once this is provided the information will be used to set standards for planned and response maintenance that achieve a refined just in time approach to maintaining the stock. 11.3 CONCLUDING A BALANCED BUDGET The balanced budget will be achieved for a thirty-year period using the above approach to maintaining the stock and reducing our capital expenditure. An accurate picture of how this can be achieved will not be provided until the database of the stock condition survey analysis has been provided. This should be achieved very soon and is dependant on the imminent delivery of an effective database. 55 11.4 SERVICE STANDARDS AND STOCK CONDITION As outlined the available resources are expected to fall short of meeting the stock condition survey needs or the requirements of tenants. Once figures have been refined and balanced budgets produced spending plans will be considered by tenants and options within the present resources constraints offered. In addition the implications of successful bids for additional resources projected. 11.5 CONCLUSION The present shortfall in resources between what tenants want, meeting the decent homes standard, and our present spending strategy is to be met by balancing the accounts through refining spending plans and seeking additional resources. Arms length status is to be applied for this September and the main source for additional resources is hoped to be accessed through this initiative. In addition all other available sources of funding are being targeted continuing the strong track record of gaining funding through the Single Regeneration Budget and New Deal. 56 Elements Strategy of Opportunity/Cost of Strategies Arms Length Assuming additional funding can be accessed. Investment strategies can be implemented Company enabling the improvement of the stock aiming at the decent homes standard and the creation of sustainable communities. The resource implication of achieving a successful transfer will impact on the position of he resources available within the HRA to maintain the stock. It will take between five and ten years to transfer a large proportion of the stock and access available funding. SRB/NWDA There are a range of piecemeal initiatives that go part way to achieving the necessary etc improvements to the stock and developing sustainable communities. Again, achieving change will require dedicating resources to making successful bids. Savings may then result from new resources being targeted at high cost areas of the stock. In the short term there will be an adverse impact on the HRA through needing to resource the work. Additionally, many of the available initiatives need unsustainable additional funding. Stock Transfer Stock transfer will be limited by the financial position of the HRA at present and the long term nature of the debt. More valuable segments of the stock will be considered for transfer and the opinions of tenants sought. As a small scale transfer strategy may enable the funding of improvements when transferred. The receipt could also benefit the HRA and fund work on other initiatives. However, it is anticipated that the resources released will be limited and tenants have historically been opposed to transfer. Maintenance Maintenance strategies would target reducing costs. A move towards a just in time Strategies maintenance strategy would be implemented and the current spending plans reviewed. It is anticipated that the environmental works would be reduced by over 50% by limiting the number of new schemes taken on. This strategy, however, causes massive concerns about the sustainability of the community. The affects of migration out of Salford would be costly in the long termin order tat short term savings are provided. 57