resulting in mounting development pressure in the more affluent parts of the City and a deepening unpopularity of accommodation in some of the City’s lower income urban areas and estates. Chapter 1 - Introduction Introduction During 2004 the Strategy and Planning team at Salford City Council have produced Understanding Change – housing markets in Salford, the first comprehensive housing market assessment for Salford. The document is used as a basis for discussion in order to increase an understanding of the dynamics of the housing market in Salford and to inform strategy and policy development within the city. Understanding Change aims to: Provide a starting point in helping the City Council and our partners better understand the structure and operation of its housing market(s). Consider the various factors that drive the demand or need of different households for different types of housing in different parts/areas of the housing market. Inform our understanding of potential future trends in supply and demand. The main issues from the CURS M6 AND M62 reports were: In order to achieve a more localised overview of the housing market the city of Salford as a whole, the Understanding Change document set a recommendation for the production of a series of local housing market reports for each of the Community Committee areas within the city. The National Context The Deputy Prime Minister launched the Communities Plan Sustainable Communities: Building for the future in February 2003. The Plan sets out a long-term programme of action for delivering sustainable communities in both urban and rural areas. It aims to tackle housing supply issues in the South East, low demand in other parts of the country, and the quality of our public spaces. This report provides an overview of the Eccles Community Committee Area (CCA) as recommended by the Understanding Change Document. (Refer to Appendix 1: flow chart outlining the linkages between national, regional, and local strategies.) The Regional context The housing market that operates in Salford is in a process of transition. The CURS study Changing Housing Markets and Urban Regeneration in the M62 Corridor published in 2001, noted an increasing polarisation between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ neighbourhoods and highlighted that the suburban and inner-city housing markets are now largely disconnected. In Salford, this is Understanding local housing markets IN Salford A number of local authorities in the region are having difficulties letting properties and retaining tenants. Conversely the market for new build developments is very robust across the North West. Housing Association voids have increased more rapidly than in other tenures / sectors. Economic growth across the region has reduced the popularity of social housing – the report found a direct relationship between male unemployment/waiting list size and earnings/void rates Across the study area there are areas of privately owned properties which are experiencing low sale prices, low levels of investment, high turnover and in some cases abandonment. Home ownership is the preferred tenure amongst movers – between 59% and 79% across the region. Council housing in general accommodates both an ageing population and a growing number of young households, which has led to instability, as the younger groups are more mobile. The Plan includes not just a significant increase in resources and major reforms of housing and planning, but a new approach to how and what to build. 1 Eccles Area This £22 billion programme of action aims to focus the attention and co-ordinate the efforts of all levels of Government and stakeholders in bringing about development that meets the economic, social and environmental needs of future generations as well as succeeding now. the Regional Planning Guidance) in the North West are consistent and support the communities Plan and the wider objectives of sustainable development and economic progress. In July 2003, the North West Regional Housing Strategy was launched to form the basis for advice to ministers on strategic housing investment priorities and the allocation of the new single pot for housing for 2004/5 and 2005/06. A Transformational Agenda: Housing Market Renewal Fund & Central Salford One of the key challenges facing many Northern cities, including Salford, is housing market failure. In Salford the problems of low demand and housing abandonment affect public and private sector housing areas, but are associated in particular with the high-density pre-1919 pavement terraces, which are mainly located within the inner wards of Central Salford. Launched in February 2004, Making it happen: the Northern Way, the second progress report on the communities plan, recognises the challenges faced in the North and the link between low demand housing and lower than national average economic performance. The report outlines the government’s aim to lift productivity of the North, bringing jobs, investment, quality housing and addressing problems of crime, social exclusion and health inequality. Key strategies will be developed by the three Northern Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) and their regional partners. Salford will contribute to the development of these strategies through reviews of the Regional Housing Strategy and Regional Spatial Strategy. In 2003 Salford and Manchester successfully bid for Housing Market Renewal Funding as part of the low demand pathfinder. The area covered by the low demand pathfinder in Salford lies within Central Salford. The Housing Market Renewal programme will incorporate substantial investment in both existing and replacement housing and in improvements to the physical environment, as well as increased investment in neighbourhood management and proactive enforcement. This will contribute to the implementation of comprehensive local plans for neighbourhood regeneration. Investment will be aligned with programmes in education, health and community safety in order to narrow the gap between neighbourhoods in inner Salford and Manchester and the national average, and to create places where people want to live and invest. ‘Making the future happen’: Our strategy for housing in Salford 2004-2006 Salford’s strategy for housing sets out the vision, priorities, plans and actions for housing in Salford for the next two years. In order to ensure that the strategy reflects and contributes to wider objectives, a comprehensive process of strategy development has been undertaken. This has involved a wide range of Stakeholders at all stages of the process, which has included: Launch of the Council’s ‘Fresh start for housing in Salford document Completion of the Council’s ‘Understanding Change’ document ‘Perceptions of Change’ A joint report by the Council and Housing Quality Network (HQN) Visioning and stakeholder conference Launch of the Salford Housing Partnership (SHP) Summer consultation on preferred options, priorities and actions Strategic housing priorities for 2004-2006 North West Regional Housing Strategy 2003 The North West Regional Housing Board was set up to ensure delivery of the policies set out in the Communities Plan, and specifically to prepare a Regional Housing Strategy as the basis for advice to ministers on the priorities for strategic housing investment in the region. The board also has the responsibility to ensure the high level strategies (including the Regional Economic Strategy and Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 2 Eccles Area Key Changes in Salford House prices have increased across every ward in Salford. However, these increases have varied across each ward. For example, Ordsall saw a fairly modest 1.4% (£1,000) increase compared to Broughton, which has experienced a 52.7% (£16,000) increase over the same period. (Check date with MH) House prices remain lowest in Langworthy and are highest in Worsley and Boothstown. In spite of these trends in house prices, Salford's are still lower than the regional and Greater Manchester average. 9 of the 20 wards in Salford are in the 10% most deprived in the country. The age profile for the city’s population is very close to the national average. Salford is a city of extremes and the Understanding Change document tries to capture these extremes. The following bullet points summarise some of the key changes that have taken place as at February 2004, unless otherwise stated. Housing turnover has reduced across all wards within the city, however, turnover within individual wards is still above the national turnover average. Housing turnover is highest in Ordsall and lowest in Worsley. Benefit rates are high in Salford with an average of 30% of all households claiming. This is echoed across most wards, where in some cases almost a half of the households are claiming housing benefit. Broughton has the highest level of benefit dependency in the city. It is estimated that £1.45 billion will need to be spent on Salford’s public housing stock over the next 30 years. Vacancy within Salford has been reducing over recent months, with the rate falling from 7% in October 2002 to 6.4% in September 2003. Family units are under represented in Salford, so consideration needs to be given to providing housing to attract and retain families. ASK MH Vacancy rates are highest in Langworthy and lowest in Irlam. Although it is anticipated that the population of Salford is declining the number of households is set to rise. The main increase in house prices has occurred over the last five years with prices increasing by approximately 70% Nationally and by 60% at a Regional and Greater Manchester level. The interesting fact is that Salford over the same five year period has seen the greatest increase in house prices, as values have increased by approximately 75%, from £55,297 in 1999 to £97,241 in 2003. This has reduced the disparity between Salford and the National and Regional averages, although Salford house prices still remain lower. A new trend is developing in 5 of the Central Salford wards and in Little Hulton where there is a decline in both households and population. The average household size in Salford of 2.32 persons is the smallest in Greater Manchester Understanding local housing markets IN Salford Source: The above information on Key Changes in Salford has been taken from the Understanding Change’ document. 3 Eccles Area Salford West Overview and economic deprivation and it is acknowledged that physical and environmental action is required in some areas to tackle small-scale abandonment. Targeted action rather than major change is needed is these areas. The Understanding Change document provided the following overview of the housing market in Salford West: Salford West comprises the remaining 12 wards across the city. The area contains 3 wards that are within the worst 10% nationally, including Barton, Winton and Little Hulton. In Salford West the aim is to stabilise the areas where pockets of deprivation exist to prevent any further decline. However, the area does still contain 3 Wards that are within worst 10% nationally, so three distinct clusters have been identified as priorities for future intervention. These are: Salford West is generally perceived to have stable housing markets which do not suffer from the same problems as that in Central Salford. Within Salford West there are a number of wards, particularly Worsley and Boothstown, which are among the most prosperous in the North West. Such Wards are characterised by high house prices, high levels of owner occupation, low outmigration. People want to live in such places and they are popular, so therefore the focus for much of the recent house building in Salford has generally been in Salford West. It is also important to recognise that significant opportunities exist in some areas to build economic prosperity and promote business enterprise and similarly we need to develop strategies to maximise this potential. Overall Salford West has the following characteristics: Swinton Area – incorporating the Clifton, Poet’s and Valley estates; Little Hulton Area The Liverpool Road Corridor – incorporating the Mossvale, Patricroft and Brookhouse Estates, and Liverpoool Road itself. There are significant neighbourhoods where intervention is required to prevent further decline Compared to Central Salford there are considerable areas of consolidation and stabilisation Deprivation is widespread across a range of indices, but not as intense as in Central Salford Priority areas are the Liverpool Road corridor (including the wards of Winton and Barton), Little Hulton, Walkden North, and Swinton North There are pockets where intervention is required to prevent decline; and Salford West differs significantly from Central Salford is that it has the most affluent/high value houses in the city. Average house prices in Salford West are £93,761, compared to only £72,924 in Central Salford. Source: The above information on Salford West has been taken from the Understanding Change’ document. Although Salford West does not suffer from housing market failure to the same degree as that in Central Salford, particular areas do suffer from similar problems to those in Central Salford. Although not quite to the same intensity and severity, for Salford West the Index of Deprivation highlights specific problems in terms of social Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 4 Eccles Area Figure 1 – Eccles Community Committee Area within Salford Chapter 2 - Eccles Community Committee Overview Eccles Local Housing Market Report This local housing market report provides key information relating to factors that influence the housing market in the Eccles area. The report highlights statistics that summarise an understanding of the local housing market, which can be used for consultation purposes. By looking at Community Committee Areas and ward levels, we hope to explore the differences between the different parts of the city to enable us to consider local housing solutions to localised issues as well as identifying strengths and successes. During the initial stages of the production of this document, a stakeholders’ group was formed in order to overview and contribute to the content and format of the document. In addition, a number of other Stakeholders have been given the opportunity to comment on the Eccles Housing Market, based on their knowledge of the area. Throughout this report where reference is made to Eccles Community Committee Area (CCA), we mean the three wards Eccles, Barton and Winton. Figure 1 shows a plan of the location of the Eccles CCA within Salford. Eccles Community Committee Area Consisting of 3 wards, Barton, Winton, and Eccles, the Eccles Community Committee Area is bordered by the Manchester Ship Canal to the South and the M60 motorway and Barton Aerodrome to the West. Over the past few years Eccles town centre has seen many changes including the arrival of the Metrolink, a new bus station and a new supermarket. Along with the Eccles town centre there are also main shopping areas at Monton Village and along the Liverpool Road corridor. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 5 Eccles Area Leisure There are a variety of leisure facilities in the Eccles CCA, with a number of local parks/recreation grounds and a leisure centre in the town, run by the City of Salford. All kinds of sporting activities take place in the parks and at the leisure centre. Other sporting facilities include the Cleavley’s athletics club at Winton, the archery club at Peel Green, the golf club at Monton and much more. Also, subject to planning permission, the Salford City Reds rugby team will be moving to Eccles in the near future with a brand new stadium opposite Barton Aerodrome. Away from sports, there are libraries in Eccles town centre and in Winton, and a new art gallery and workshop in Eccles. Salford has allocated Neighbourhood Renewal Funding to make improvements to the Liverpool Road Corridor, which includes… There has also been a programme of shop front improvements, some acquisition and clearance of empty shops, and site treatment. Public Transport The whole of Eccles has exceptional public transport links and with the transport interchange at the town centre the rest of Greater Manchester is easily accessible. The interchange consists of the recently built bus station, the Metrolink stop and the taxi rank. In addition to the interchange, a short walk up Church Street will take you to Eccles Rail Station, with quick connections to Central Manchester and the rest of our region and beyond. Shopping The main shopping area is Eccles town centre where there is a new purpose built indoor market, Morrison’s store and, just a short walk from the centre, West One Retail Park. There are a great variety of shops throughout the centre from high street, national brands to independent traders. In addition to the town centre Monton Village offers a variety of independent shops from bicycles to clothing shops to home furnishings. There are also shops running along Liverpool Road from Eccles town centre through to the motorway. Other local amenities In addition , Eccles is well served by doctors and dentists including two large health centres. In the near future a new state of the art health facility will open near the town centre on Corporation Street. Within a very short distance of Eccles, there are many other attractions of national importance, such as the Imperial War Museum North, The Lowry, Manchester United FC, The Trafford Centre and Manchester City Centre. Liverpool Road Corridor Despite the regeneration of the town centre, the Liverpool Road Corridor has been identified as an area of need and deprivation. It was the focus of an unsuccessful SRB6 bid in …..SUE FORD It faces a number of problems including high traffic levels, no onstreet parking, vacant properties and sites, dispersed retail provision and a poor appearance, all of which detract from the area’s image. The area also requires a comprehansive environmental improvement scheme. However, Livrpool Road does hold much potential, it is an important route into the Eccles and the motorway, a proposed Quality Bus Corridor and has ample retail space. (Source: Salford’s Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy, October Source: http://www.salford.gov.uk/draftplans/eccles.asp Include an overview of housing type in Eccles 2002) Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 6 Eccles Area Summary of Local Amenities in Eccles CCA Insert map - plotting amenities. Parks & Open Spaces Monton Green/Boddan Cleavley Athletic Track, Blantyre Lodge, Monton Green, Street, Eccles M27 9PR Eccles M30 9LE Ellesmere Recreation Eccles Recreation Ground, Ground, Salisbury Road, Oxford Street, Eccles M30 0FW Eccles M30 9BG Winton Park, Dover Street, Patricroft Recreation Ground, Eccles M30 8LW Eddison Road, Eccles M30 7BL Primary Schools – Eccles CCA Eccles Godfrey Ermen C of E St. Marys RC Primary School Branwood School Alder Park Primary School St. Andrews C of E School Westwood Park Community Barton Barton Moss Primary Patricroft C of E School Holy Cross & All Saints RC Beech Street Primary School Winton Beech Street Primary Monton Village School St. Gilberts R C School Clarendon Cottage School Clarendon County Primary St. Gilberts RC School Godfrey Ermen C of E Lewis Street County Primary S St Mark's R C Primary St. Augustines C of E Primary High Schools - Eccles Wentworth High School Canon Williamson C of E Libraries Eccles Library Hospitals Nearest A&E is at Hope The are 4 GPs in the Eccles Hospital, Pendlebury Community Committee Area Leisure Centres Fit City Eccles Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 7 Eccles Area Key Findings 1991 – 2001* Population in the Eccles CCA has risen by 371 people (1.1%) which is comparitive across West Salford. Despite population growth in the Barton and Winton wards, the Eccles ward has seen a decrease by 325 people (-2.77%) The average age in Eccles ward (41.8) is higher than the Salford average (38.2), whereas Barton (38) is in line with the city and the average age in Winton (36.6) is marginally lower. The Eccles ward has an above average concentration of people aged in the 60 to 74, and the 75 and over categorisation. There is a higher proportion of single person households in the Barton and Winton wards (% & %) compared to the city average. (SCC HMDS 2004) The Eccles ward has a significantly lower proportion of single parent families than Barton and Winton and the city average. (SCC HMDS 2004) Unemployment rate in Barton and Winton wards is higher than the national average (3.5%) but Eccles ward is slightly lower. Housing and Council Tax levels are highest in the Winton and Barton wards. (Council Tax Records) Winton is the most deprived ward in the Eccles area and is ranked 7th in the city. (Index Multiple Deprivation, 2004) Key crime levels are generally higher than the city averages. (SCC Early Warning System, Jan 2004) (The key findings above relate to the 1991 & 2001 Census Information, unless otherwise sourced.) Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 8 Eccles Area Chapter 3 - Population & Population Change The following information is taken from the 1991 and 2001 Census and relates to population change by ward within the Eccles Community Committee Area. Table 1 Population by ward 1991 to 2001 Population 1991 2001 Change % Eccles 11,738 11,413 -325 -2.77% Barton 9,983 10,434 451 4.5% Winton 12,507 12,752 245 1.96% Eccles CCA 34,228 34,599 371 1.09% Salford 230,800 216,103 14, 697 -6.4% Source: 1991 Census and 2001 Census Key trends: Like many other English cities, Salford has experienced population decline over the last decade. The Eccles CCA has experienced a small increase in population. Within the Eccles CCA, the Eccles ward is the only ward to have experienced a decline in population (-2.77%). The Barton ward has experienced the largest increase in population (4.5%), whilst Winton experienced an increase in population of (1.96%). The decline in the Eccles ward (2.77%) is higher than the population drop in Salford West (0.8%) but less than the drop in Salford Central (6.4%). What are the implications of the changes in population? We must monitor population changes to ensure that the right numbers and types of properties are being provided in the Eccles, Winton and Barton areas. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 9 Eccles Area Age & Gender Age Profile Key Findings: The census data enables us to create an age and gender profile for each of the wards within the Eccles Community Committee Area, so we can determine the nature and structure of local populations and the implications this may have for housing in the area. It is difficult to provide key trends between the 1991 and 2001 census information as the age profile is grouped differently. The illustrations show the age profile of residents in the Eccles Community Committee Area in 2001. Table 2 Age profile by ward %Under 16 %16 to 19 %20 to 29 %30 to 59 %60 to 74 %75 and over Average age Eccles Barton Winton Salford 17.1 4.1 12.6 40.6 14.8 10.8 41.8 20.7 4.5 13.4 40.9 12.7 7.9 38.0 24.4 5.1 12.5 38.0 12.9 7.0 36.6 20.4 5.4 13.8 39.3 13.5 7.7 38.2 Eng & Wales 20.2 4.9 12.6 41.5 13.3 7.6 38.6 Table 3 Source: Census 2001- Neighbourhood Statistics Table 2 Age profile by ward Eccles All people Eccles 11,413 Barton 10,434 Winton 12,752 Salford 216,103 North West 6,729,764 Barton Winton Salford Eng & Wales 5,546 (48.6%) 5,181 (49.7%) 6,215 (48.7%) 106,191 (49.1%) 3,258,954 (48.4%) Females 5,867 (51.4%) 5,253 (50.3%) 6,537 (51.3%) 109,912 (50.9%) 3,470,810 (51.6%) % U Key trends: Age Range The gender profile for the Eccles wards is more or less in line with those for Salford and the North West. Characteristically there are Source: Census 2001 – Neighbourhood Statistics Understanding local housing markets IN Salford Males Source: Census 2001: Table UV03 SEX nd er 16 % 16 to 19 % 20 to 29 % 30 to 59 % 60 to % 74 75 an d ov Av er er ag e ag e % of Population Gender profile Area Figure 2: Age profile of population 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 The Eccles Ward has a higher proportion people aged 60 to 74 and 75 and over, and a lower proportion of under 16s compared with Barton, Winton and the city average. Winton has a larger concentration of under 16s compared with the city average. The average age in Eccles ward is nearly 4years older than the city average. 10 Eccles Area Ethnic Profile more females than males and given that females tend to have a higher life expectancy than males, it can be expected that a larger proportion of the over 60 population is made up of females. Compared with the England Average, there are relatively low numbers of BME households in the Eccles CCA. What are the implications of the changes in population? The increase in the proportion of older persons living in the Eccles area may impact on the demand of older persons accommodation. A separate study is mapping the demand and the supply of older persons accommodation in order to develop an older persons strategy. Table 4 Ethnic Profile Ethnic Group White Of which white Irish Mixed Asian or Asian British Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black or Black British Carribbean African Other Black Chinese or other Ethnic Group Eccles 93.5 Barton 96.3 Winton 97.4 Salford 96.1 England 90.9 2.6 1.2 2.3 1.0 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 4.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 4.6 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 (Source: 2001 Census – Neighbourhood Statistics) Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 11 Eccles Area 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Eccles Barton Winton Salford England Compared with the Barton and Winton wards, the Eccles ward has a high percentage of Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and other Asian backgrounds. Yemeni community speak to Emma, Barbara or Hassan Due to changes in the way the ethnic profile was grouped in the 1991 and 2001 censuses, it is difficult to provide a comprehensive trend analysis of the ethnic profile. The table below shows how ethnic profile was measured in the 1991 census. Ind ian Ethnic Group White Black Group Ind/Pak/Bang Chinese & Other Pak is t a ni Ban gla des hi Ot h er A Bla sian ck/ Bla ck Brit is h Ca ribb ean Ch Afr ican ine se or o Oth the e r bl r et ack hni cb ack gro und Asi an/ Asi an Brit ish Table 5 1991 Census Ethnic Group M ix ed % Figure 3 Ethnic Profile Eccles 95.9 0.3 2.4 1.4 Barton 97.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 The 2001 census information shows that there has been a slight increase in BME population within all wards in the Eccles CCA and Salford since the 1991 census. Key findings The Winton ward has the lowest representation of BME groups (2.6%), compared to the Eccles ward (6.5%), Barton ward (3.7%), Salford (3.9%), and the average for England (9.1%). The Eccles Ward has the largest percentage of Asian/Asian British population (4.1%) compared with Barton (1.6) and Winton (0.9%). The Winton ward has a low percentage of Chinese or other ethnic group (0.4%) compared with the city (0.9%) and the Eccles and Winton wards (0.7%) Understanding local housing markets IN Salford Salford 97.8 0.5 0.8 0.9 (Source: 1991 Census - Ward Profiles) (Source: Census 2001 – Neighbourhood Statistics) Winton 98.5 0.2 0.6 0.7 12 Eccles Area Chapter 4 - Household Type Key trends: Within the Eccles Community Committee Area there are a total of 15,620 households. We need to monitor the type of households living within the Eccles CCA so that we can determine that the level and type of housing provision is in line with need and demand. Research undertaken by the Housing Market Demand Study 2003, indicates the breakdown of household types as follows: Compared with the Salford Average: There is a higher proportion of single person households in the Barton and Winton wards (21.1% & 22.0%) than the Eccles ward (19.9%) and the Salford average (18.8%). The Eccles ward has a higher than average proportion of elderly couple (13.1%), elderly mixed (5.2%) and elderly single (22.5%) households. Eccles ward has a significantly lower proportion of small single (2.0%) and larger single households (0.9%) compared with Barton (6.5% & 3.2%) and Winton (5.9% & 2.9%) The Barton ward has a larger percentage of small single parent (6.5%) & and large single parent (3.2%) families than the other wards in the Eccles CCA and the Salford average. The Eccles ward has the largest percentage of larger two parent families than Winton and Barton and the Salford average. Fig 4 Household Type by Area 25.0 Eccles 20.0 Percentage Barton Winton 15.0 Salford What are the implications of the changes in household type? There are a greater number of single person households across the Eccles CCA than the Salford average, which may suggest that there will be greater demand for smaller-sized properties. However, Barton has a greater number of larger households that could also suggest a demand for family accommodation. 10.0 5.0 Si ng le pe r Sm son al la du La lt Sm rg er al ls ad in ul La gl t rg e er pa re si ng nt Sm le p a al re lt nt w La o pa rg er re nt tw o pa El re de nt rly s El in de gl e rly co El up de le rly m ix ed O th er 0.0 Household Type Source: HMDS Table 10a – Household Type by Area Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 13 Eccles Area Economic Activity Fig 5 Economic Activity by Ward The census measures economic activity in a variety of ways. The table at the beginning of the chapter looks at a number of key measures in order to gain a picture of economic activity within the Eccles Community Committee Area. Table 45 Percentage of total population 40 Key findings show: Eccles % 25 Barton % 20 Winton % Total % 15 10 Awaiting information from planning department – Income data Full-time student Wholly retired from work At home / unpaid household duties (Check Table ‘Total Field )is is Salford or Eccles CCA Permanently sick / disabled (Include Census Info – Copare with 1991-2001) Unemployed - not seeking employment The Housing Market Demand Study also carries out useful analysis of the economic activity in the area and enables us to identify the engagement of the population in the employment market within an area. In part-time work In full-time work 0 Unemployed - seeking employment 5 Self employed - Part-time Lower than Salford average levels of unemployment in the Eccles Ward Higher rates of unemployment in Barton and Winton A high proportion of retired population in Eccles Ward A lower proportion of the population in full-time education The Winton and Barton wardshave higher proportions of the population with no qualifications than the Salford average. 30 Self employed - Full-time 35 Employment status Source HMDS 2003: Table 12a – Economic Activity of Residents aged 16 or over - count by area Key Findings: The Eccles and Barton wards have higher than Salford average levels of people in full time work Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 14 Eccles Area Winton has lower levels of people working full-time and higher levels of unemployment. The Barton and Winton wards have a higher percentage of people who are permanently sick or disabled Winton has the highest unemployment benefit claimant rate at (4.3%) and is closely followed by Baron at (4.1%). In September 2004, the Eccles CCA had a marginally higher percentage of claimants (3.9%) than Salford (3.6%). Census information 1991-2001 What are the implications of the changes in economic activity in the Eccles Community Committee Area? Unemployment is higher than average in both Barton and Winton and high benefit levels in some wards may indicate difficulty with housing costs or a larger proportion of rented accommodation. Targeted action may be necessary to improve the balance of economic activity in the area. The larger than average retired population is likely to reflect the ageing population in the area. Table 6 Unemployment Benefit Claimant Levels for Males and Females September ’03 & Sept’04 (%) WARDS Eccles Barton Winton Eccles CCA City of Salford Greater Manchester UK September '03 M F TOTAL 4.6 1.3 3.1 5.7 1.3 3.7 5.5 2.0 3.9 5.3 1.5 3.6 5.2 1.8 3.6 5.3 2.0 3.7 4.4 1.9 3.3 September '04 M F TOTAL 4.7 1.7 3.4 5.8 1.9 4.1 6.2 1.9 4.3 5.6 1.8 3.9 5.0 1.9 3.6 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.0 1.8 3.0 Source: National Statistics NOMIS According to the levels of unemployment claimants recorded by NOMIS the percentage of people claiming unemployment benefits in the Eccles, Winton, and Barton wards has increased during September ’03 –’04. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 15 Eccles Area Figure 8 2004 Rank Index of Employment. 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Sept '03 2.0 Sept'04 1.5 1.0 0.5 K U G Sa re l fo at rd er M an ch es te r A C C Ec cl es W in to n Ba rto n 0.0 Ec cl es % Unemployment Benefit Claimants Figure 7 Percentage of population claiming unemployment benefits Sept 2003 & Sept 2004 The chart shows that whilst Greater Manchester and the UK as a whole have seen a reduction in the number of unemployment benefit claimants between September ’03 and September ’04, the Salford average has remained the same, however all of the wards within the Eccles CCA have witnessed an increase in the number of claimants. Source: Planning Employment Deprivation Domain This domain measures employment deprivation conceptualised as involuntary exclusion of the working age population from the world of work. Unemployment claimant count (JUVOS) of women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64 averaged over 4 quarters (2001). Incapacity Benefit claimants women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64 (2001). Severe Disablement Allowance claimants women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64 (2001). Participants in New Deal for the 18-24s who are not included in the claimant count (2001). Participants in New Deal for 25+ who are not included in the claimant count (2001). Participants in New Deal for Lone Parents aged 18 and over (2001). Overall unemployment in Salford is 3.8%, just above the national average of 3.4%. In terms of unemployment, Winton is highlighted as the most deprived ward in the Eccles area, with a 4.8% unemployment rate. However unemployment is as high as 11.1% in some wards in the city. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 16 Eccles Area Table 8 Industry Type The map shows that some parts of the Eccles CCA are comparable to some of the deprivation levels in Central Salford. Source: Census 2001: TABLE UV34 INDUSTRY Table 7 Distance Travelled to Work Eccles % All People 4984 Works mainly at or from home 8.3 Less than 2km 20.9 2km to less than 5km 25.2 5km to less than 10km 24.3 10km to less than 20km 11.3 20km to less than 30km 1.8 30km to less than 40km 0.9 40km to less than 60km 1.5 60km and over 1.9 No fixed place of work 3.6 Working outside the UK 0.2 Working at offshore installation 0.1 Distanced Travelled to work Barton % 4426 7.5 25.7 26.1 24.4 9.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 1.2 3.1 0.2 0.0 Barton Eccles Winton % % % All People 4426 4986 4898 A. Agriculture; hunting and forestry 0.4 0.3 0.3 B. Fishing 0.0 0.0 0.0 C. Mining and quarrying 0.2 0.1 0.1 D. Manufacturing 16.7 12.4 15.8 E. Electricity; gas and water supply 0.4 0.6 0.8 F. Construction 6.6 6.2 6.7 G. Wholesale and retail trade; repairs 19.2 16.2 20.7 H. Hotels and restaurants 5.8 4.2 4.7 I. Transport; storage and communications 9.4 7.0 8.4 J. Financial Intermediation 3.8 4.8 3.7 K. Real estate; renting and business activities 11.8 13.8 11.7 L. Public administration and defence; social security 3.9 4.9 3.8 M. Education 4.5 9.2 6.7 N. Health and social work 12.4 15.2 12.3 O. Other community; social and personal service activities 4.8 5.0 4.5 P. Private households with employed persons 0.0 0.1 0.1 Q. Extra-territorial organisations and bodies 0.0 0.0 0.0 Key Findings: The largest percentage of the population in the Eccles CCA are employed within the wholesale and retail trade, with Eccles (19.2%), Barton (12.4%) and Winton (15.8%). Industry Winton % 4896 6.6 16.8 30.2 28.8 10.0 1.9 0.8 0.6 1.2 2.9 0.1 0.0 Source: Census 2001 - Table UV35 Distance Travelled to Work The majority of the population living in the Eccles CCA travel 2km to less than 5km to work. The Eccles ward has a higher percentage of its population (4.3%) who travel 30km to over 60km than the Barton (2.3%) and Winton wards (2.6%). There is a slightly larger percentage of people working form home in the Eccles ward (8.3%) than the Barton (7.5%) and the Winton (6.6%) wards. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 17 Eccles Area Social change and other neighbourhood statistics mortality rate between wards could be due to health inequalities but may also be caused by the concentration of an elderly population. The English Indices of Deprivation 2004 The new Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 (IMD 2004) is a nationally recognised measure of deprivation at the small area level. The model is based on the premise that multiple deprivation is made up of separate dimensions, or ‘domains’, all of which can be individually measured and which reflect different aspects of deprivation. People may be counted in one or more of the domains, depending on the number of types of deprivation that they experience. The numbers of people in an area suffering each type of disadvantage are then aggregated and weighted to give an overall area level summary of deprivation. The Indices of Deprivation 2004 were commissioned by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) and constructed by the Social Disadvantage Research Centre at Oxford University. The Index of Multiple Deprivation is a national composite ranking, which takes into account a number of social and economic measures in order to determine an area’s economic status in relation to other areas. Table 9 Key Neighbourhood Statistics* Eccles Barton Winton IMD 2000 Rank Index 13th (out of 20 wards) IMD 2000 Rank Index 1551st (out of 8414 wards) Child Poverty Index 2407th 9th 7th 471st 729th 479th 1043rd Standard Mortality 145 Rate (UK=100) 135 150 The IMD 2004 contains seven domains of deprivation, including: income deprivation, employment deprivation, health deprivation and disability, education, skills and training deprivation, barriers to housing and services, living environment deprivation and crime. Source: Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy and 2001 Census *Table 4, depicts the findings from the 2000 Index of Deprivation. Index of Multiple Deprivation Geography The Index is no longer based on wards and is therefore not directly comparable to the 2000 Index in order to find key trends. Instead, the 2004 Index uses smaller geographical areas called SuperOutput Areas (SOAs) based on analysis from the 2001 Census. The lower-level SOAs used in the Index typically comprise of a population of approximately 1,500 people. SOAs have only been given individual codes and have not been named, there are 32,482 lower-level SOAs in England. One of the benefits of the new Index is that deprivation is now measured at a more localised level compared to the ward level based approach of IMD 2000. This means that ‘pockets’ of extreme deprivation previously ‘masked’ by the relative affluence of other areas within the same ward are now better highlighted. According to the 2000 Index of Deprivation: Salford was placed the 4th most deprived local authority area in the North West and 28th nationally. Fifteen out of twenty wards in the City were within the worst 20% nationally. The Winton ward was ranked as the 7th most deprived ward out of 20 within Salford and was within the worst 20% nationally. The Barton ward was ranked 9th The Eccles Ward was ranked slightly higher at 13th in the City. Winton was ranked the most deprived ward, whilst the Eccles ward was ranked least deprived ward in the Eccles Community Committee Area. The information on the Standard Mortality Rate shows that all wards in Eccles area are higher than the UK figure. The large gaps in the Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 18 Eccles Area Table 10 2004 Ward Level IMD Data The Index ranks all of the SOAs in England based upon their scores generated from a number of different indicators. A ranking of 1 represents the most deprived SOA and a ranking of 32,482 represents the least deprived SOA. The ranks allow direct comparison between other SOAs across the whole of England. The 2004 IMD does not provide any ward level IMD scores. However, there has been score analysis on the concentrations and therefore the table below indicates those wards that have the highest concentrations of deprivation within Salford. Ward (Give Bullet point Summary) % of ward pop in % of ward pop in Ranking 7% most 30% most ** deprived deprived nationally nationally Langworthy 1 Irwell Riverside 2 Broughton 3 Ordsall 4 Little Hulton 5 Winton 6 Barton 7 Walkden North 8 Weaste and Seedley 9 Irlam 10 Swinton North 11 Swinton South 12 Pendlebury 13 Kersal 14 Eccles 15 Cadishead 16 Walkden South 17 Claremont 18 Worsley 19 Boothstown & Ellenbrook 20 Salford - Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 19 75.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 55.5 37.5 42.9 28.6 28.6 25.0 25.5 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 75.0 100 87.5 100 100 85.7 62.5 62.5 71.4 71.4 57.1 57.1 57.1 33.3 25.0 0 0 31.3 0 68.8 Eccles Area *Figures shown for population affected are estimated figures (building up SOAs to the best fit at ward level). **Table is ranked so that the most deprived area is ranked as 1 and the least deprived 20. According to the estimated figures for ward levels Winton and Barton are classed as the most deprived wards within the whole of Salford West Winton is classed as the most deprived ward of the Eccles CCA, directly followed by Barton. According to the estimated figures for ward level, the Eccles ward is ranked considerably higher (15th) than the other wards in the CCA. What are the implications of social change? Targeted action may be required in certain areas to combat health inequalities, high benefit dependency, and poverty within those areas that appear to be most deprived. In order to build sustainable communities we must look at the wider issues that may affect people’s housing choices. Figure 9 (pg 22) shows that: Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 20 Eccles Area Figure 9 Summary results from the Indices of Deprivation 2004. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 21 Eccles Area At the end of Key Stage 2, pupils are tested in English, maths and science. Level 4 is the level of achievement expected of pupils at the end of key stage 2. The results show the percentage of pupils who reach level 4 by the end of Key Stage 2. Educational Attainment Table 11 Eccles CCA Primary Schools Attainment levels 2004. Primary School St Gilberts RC St Mary’s RC Clarendon Rd Community St Augustines C of E Holy Cross & All Saints RC Beech Street Christ Church CofE Godfrey Ermen C of E Monton Green Lewis Street County Barton Moss Westwood Park Community St. Andrews C of E Alder Park SALFORD ENGLAND 234 217 97 90 85 86 Aggregate Science Across 3 % core subjects 100 282 90 266 350 86 88 89 263 228 82 79 96 257 206 186 200 83 79 75 78 79 83 91 92 83 252 250 242 273 295 76 74 73 74 88 88 236 236 181 187 58 55 58 59 100 59 215 172 310 45 50 59 155 195 138 N/A N/A 36 35 75 78 43 22 73 74 61 17 82 86 139 74 230 237 Total no. English of pupils % Maths % Key Findings: According to the Aggregate* attainment levels for primary schools within the Eccles CCA: Seven Primary Schools within the Eccles CCA perform higher than the England average. Seven Primary Schools within the Eccles CCA perform below the England average, however two of these schools only perform 1 point below the England Average. Half of the primary schools in the Barton ward perform under the England average. The majority of primary schools in the Eccles ward perform below the England average. Source: DFES School and College Performance tables http://www.dfes.gov.uk/performancetables/ Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 22 Eccles Area Table 12 Eccles High Schools Attainment Levels 2004. Secondary School The differing performance of high schools in the area may impact on residential choice in the area. This is believed to be a major factor in the outward migration from Central Salford. GCSE % of ½ day % of ½ day Total no. of passes Authorised Unauthorised pupils A*-C absence absence Insert Map with plotted schools and attainment levels. Wentwoth High School 900 31 7.6 2.6 44 11.2% 1.9% N/A 38.3 N/A N/A N/A 53.7 N/A N/A Canon Williamson C of E High School 572 St Patrick’s RC High School ? SALFORD ENGLAND Source: DFES School and College Performance tables http://www.dfes.gov.uk/performancetables/ The examination results show the percentage of 15 year old pupils gaining five or more GCSEs with Grades A*-C. Key trends: Both the high Schools in the Eccles CCA perform below the England Average. Only one high school in the Eccles CCA performs above the Salford Average. What are the implications of varying educational attainment levels? Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 23 Eccles Area Crime levels Crime Domain This Domain measures the incidence of recorded crime for four major crime themes, representing the occurrence of personal and material victimisation at a small area level. Burglary (4 recorded crime offence types, April 2002-March 2003). Theft (5 recorded crime offence types, April 2002-March 2003, constrained to CDRP level). Criminal damage (10 recorded crime offence types, April 2002March 2003). Violence (14 recorded crime offence types, April 2002-March 2003). New Crime Stats being sent by Planning Table 13 Key facts: crime Ward Domestic Burglary Per 1000 h’holds 2002 2003 52.7 49.8 72.0 48.7 46.7 34.7 46.1 43.9 Eccles Barton Winton Salford England & Wales 19.9 20.2 2002 31.8 27.5 22.3 35.9 2003 29.4 36.7 25.1 32.9 Juvenile nuisance per 1000 pop 2002 2003 38.6 40.7 68.0 57.0 52.0 55.4 47.0 41.6 18.9 18.7 N/A Vehicle Crime Per 1,000 pop Figure 10 – 2004 Rank Index of Crime (Draw a few conclusions about crime form 2004 Index/this map N/A Source: Salford City Council Draft Early Warning System Report – Jan 2004 – Original data collected from Police records (via Community Safety Unit). Key trends: From the crime data relating to 2002 & 2003, Domestic Burglary rates are higher in the Eccles CCA compared to the rest of the city. Winton has the highest level of recorded Juvenile nuisance but fewer burglaries than the other wards in Eccles. It is difficult to compare trends with crime statistics from 2004, to those of 2003 & 2002 as crime statistics are now collected at beat patrol level and are therefore not directly comparable. What are the implications of crime levels on housing choice? Crime and perceived levels of crime may affect a person’s decision when considering moving into the area. Crime levels in the Eccles area are generally higher than the Salford average, which may influence migration patterns within the city. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 24 Eccles Area 2. Housing Market Analysis Housing stock Key Findings: (Source these points?) According to the Private Sector Stock Condition Survey 2001, there are currently 70,999 dwellings in Salford that are privately owned or owned by a Registered Social Landlord. A further 27,323 dwellings are owned by the Local Authority. The Eccles CCA itself contains 10,851 private sector dwellings and 5288 Local Authority-owned dwellings. The general trend over the last 10 years in the Eccles CCA has been a reduction in the number of households that are renting from the Local Authority. The level of owner occupation identified in the 2001 census in the Eccles ward (58.5%) was similar to the city’s average (56.4%), but is considerably lower than the percentage of Owner occupion for Engalnd & Wales (68.9%) and the North West of 70% (ONC, 2001). There has been a growth in the private rented sector in Eccles CCA with Winton showing the highest growth out of all three wards. In Eccles and Barton wards the level of RTB ownership on local authority estates is slightly below the Salford average (18%), however Winton has significantly higher levels of sold properties (27.57%). The age of the housing stock shows a strong pre-war bias The Private Sector Stock Condition survey indicated that rates of unfitness and poor repair are slightly below the City average. Almost 21% of private properties could be considered unsatisfactory in terms of condition. House prices are on the increase in all wards within the Eccles CCA, but most noticeably in the Barton ward Migration patterns show a strong local connection with most anticipated movement shown to be within the Eccles CCA. Equally movement outside the city is strongest regionally and to neighbouring boroughs. Between 1996 and 2004, 37 dwellings were demolished and 503 new dwellings were built within the Eccles CCA. This means that the total number of dwellings in the Eccles CCA has increased by 466 since 1996. (Source Residential Development & Land Supply – September 2004) Dwelling Types There is a diverse mix of housing across the area, in both the public and private sector, ranging from traditional pre-1919 terraced housing to large new build detached residences. The graph below gives a breakdown of the types of dwellings currently found in the area, using information from the 2001 census (Table KS16N.) Fig 11 Household Spaces and Accommodation Type Detached 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Semi-detached Terraced Purpose built flat* Converted flat* Flat in Commercial Building Caravan/Mobile home Eccles Barton Winton Salford Source: Census 2001 Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 25 Eccles Area *Percentages also include flats & maisonettes Eccles ward is slightly lower (22.7%) and the Winton ward is slightly higher (33.3%). From the graph it is evident that: The Barton ward contains a larger proportion of terraced properties than the Eccles and Winton wards and the Salford Average. There is also a slightly larger proportion of semi-detached in the Winton ward than the citywide average. The Eccles ward has a higher number of purpose built flats than the other wards in the Eccles CCA and the Salford average. The Eccles ward also has a larger percentage of converted flats than Barton, Winton and the Salford average. The table also highlights a general trend over this period in the reduction of households the Eccles CCA that are renting from the Local Authority. This trend is reflective of the average figures for Salford. Our understanding of the way in which different tenure types are distributed throughout the Eccles CCA can be improved by mapping the tenure distibution onto a spatial plan of the area, as shown in figure 8. (Find Figure 8) Figure 12 Tenure Breakdown of Estates The figures relating to the provision of Private rented accomodation in the Eccles area mirror the national picture with private renting on the increase. In Salford West the proportion of privately rented properties has increased dramatically over recent years. The percentage of households renting a private property in Barton and Winton has more than doubled between the 1991 and 2001 census, with a significant increase in Winton. These figures suggest that renting from a private landlord is becoming increasingly popular in the Eccles area. (Although look at population figures too – is Eccles larger ward?) Implications We need to monitor the type of housing that is offered in the Eccles area to ensure that supply meets demand as far as possible. If there is significant change in the household type, e.g. a growing number of single person households, then the type of housing stock available should largely reflect this change. Tenure What are the implications of changes in tenure? There appears to be a tenure imbalance when looking at ward level. This may suggest limited residential choice or affordability issues in certain wards. The increase in the private rented sector requires further monitoring. This may be as a result of new private apartment developments in the area or symptomatic of a failure in the housing market. An important factor when examining housing markets is the tenure distibution. The census provides us with key information about the relative proportions of different tenure types for both Salford as a whole and for individual wards. This information is presented in table 8. The table shows that Local Authority housing is dispersed throughout the Eccles area, however there is a higher concentration of Council owned accommodation in the Winton Ward. Include Chart for tenure Across the Eccles CCA, the level of owner occupation identified in the 2001 census was in line with than the city’s average of (56.4%). Compared to the city average of LA rented properties (25.7%), the Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 26 Eccles Area Table 14 Changes in Tenure 1991 – 2001 Percentage of LA Stock Sold Eccles 1991 Eccles 2001 Barton 1991 Barton 2001 Winton 1991 Winton 2001 Salford 1991 Salford 2001 Eng & Wal 1991 Eng & Wal 2001 % Owner Occ 58.1 58.5 51.4 54.9 48.7 52.1 52.7 56.4 N/A 68.9 % LA Rented 27 22.7 36.4 25.8 45.2 33.3 35.2 25.7 N/A 13.2 % Private Rented or Rent free % HA/RSL Rented 3.3 3.9 4.5 6.1 1.6 3.2 5.4 5.7 N/A 6.0 30 25 11.4 14.8 7.8 13.3 4.4 11.4 6.7 12.2 N/A 11.9 20 % Sold WARD 15 % Sold 10 5 0 Eccles Source: Census 1991 and 2001 – Neighbourhood Statistics Barton Winton Ward Stock owned by the Council and managed by New Prospect Source – Salford City Council Saffron Database Oct 2004 New Prospect Housing Limited manages approximately 5288 Council owned properties in the Eccles area. Both across Salford and England and Wales, a significant proportion of Local Authority dwellings have been sold to tenants under the Right to Buy Act. In Eccles itself, approximately 23% former Council dwellings have been sold in this manner, which is above the Salford average of 18% according HIP returns. This suggests that the Eccles CCA is a relatively stable residential area in which people wish to remain and live. There are noticeably a higher proportion of properties sold in the Winton ward (%) than in Eccles and Barton (%). Fig 13 Eccles CCA map showing location of Council estates. Fig 14 Percentage of sold properties by Ward Include Salford Ave & Greater Manchester The level of Right to Buy activity across Salford (18 %) is below the regional average for Greater Manchester (22 %), however, Eccles (22.5%) is in line with the Greater Manchester average. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 27 Eccles Area Turnover and Void levels in Council owned stock Housing Options Team. We need to carry out void analysis over time and comparisons to BVPI / regional and national comparisons in order to put our information into context. This then needs to be assessed in terms of the impact on the neighbouring housing markets. Fig 15 Percentage of Void Properties by estate (as of October 2004) % Void 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 % 1.2 1 % Void 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Eccles Barton Winton The graph highlights the percentage of empty properties in the Eccles CCA by ward. Winton has the lowest proportion of void properties within the area. Eccles ward has the highest number of void properties within the area at just under two percent. What are the implications of varying sustainability levels? There is a need to carry out further work regarding sustainability within local authority stock in the Eccles Community Committee area. Turnover and void levels will become available through the Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 28 Eccles Area Housing Benefit levels Council Tax Bands Data Fig 6 Percentage of households receiving Council tax benefit in 2004* Figure ?? 80.0 % of Total Properties 40 35 30 25 Eccles Barton 20 Winton 60.0 Eccles 50.0 Barton 40.0 Winton 30.0 Salford 20.0 10.0 Salford 15 70.0 0.0 Band A 10 Band B Band C Band D-H Council Tax Bands 5 0 Eccles Barton Winton Source: Council Tax Records (3rd quarter 2004), supplied by SCC Planning Team Salford Source: Council Tax Department Records (Planning Dept) *The figures show an average figure for benefit claimants during the first three quarters of 2004. Key Findings: The Eccles CCA is predominantly made up of properties within Council Tax band A. The Eccles and Winton wards have a higher percentage of properties within Council Tax band A than the Salford average. The Winton and Barton wards have a low percentage of properties within Council Tax Band D-H. The Barton Ward has a lower percentage of properties with the Council Tax Bands C and D-H, than the other wards in the Eccles CCA and the Salford average. The table indicates higher rates of Council tax benefit claimants in the Winton and Barton wards. Only the Eccles ward has a lower rate of benefit claimants (25.4%) than city average (28.6%) . Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 29 Eccles Area Registered Social Landlords (RSL) Stock in the Eccles Community Committee Area TOTAL 280 145 Source: Salford City Council RSL Database 2003 There are approximately 588 properties within the Eccles area that are owned and managed by RSLs. Of the three wards within the Eccles CCA, Barton contains significantly more RSL properties than the other Eccles wards. Lower numbers of RSL stock in the other wards may suggest limited choice and availability for people wanting to access this accommodation in this area. (Compare with Salford figures) Implications Affordability implications and low RSL stock numbers in Winton and Eccles suggests we need to work to redress the balance in tenure in this area. Table 15 Provision of RSL stock in the Eccles CCA Housing Association Arcon Housing Association Limited English Churches Housing Group LTD Irwell Valley Housing Association Limited Manchester & District Housing Association Ltd Manchester Methodist Housing Association Limited Northern Counties Housing Association Limited Space New Living Limited St. Vincent's Housing Association Limited Barton Winton Eccles 48 0 0 0 0 1 158 78 64 0 0 38 30 39 30 23 11 7 16 17 15 5 0 8 Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 163 30 Eccles Area Private Sector Stock Fig 17 Property Age by Ward Fig 16 Property Age by Area 35 % of Properties in Area Percentage of Properties 40 35 30 25 Eccles CCA Salford 20 15 10 5 0 Pre 1919 1919-1944 1945-1964 25 Eccles % 20 Barton % Winton % 15 Salford Total % 10 5 0 Post 1964 Before 1919 Date of Construction 1919 1944 1945 1964 1965 1984 1985 and after Property Built Source: Private Sector Stock Condition Survey: D. Adamsons 2001) Source: HMDS 2003 : Table 5a – Property Age by Area The Private Sector Stock Condition Survey provided the age distribution of the housing stock across the city. The report shows that much of the accommodation was built prior to the Second World War. What are the implications of the age of private housing stock? It would be useful to map the information to show the concentration and location of older properties and new properties spatially. This will enable trends between the age of stock in relation to tenure, turnover and prices to be monitored. This is further evidenced by the HMDS where the chart below indicates the age of properties, broken down to a ward level. The majority of properties in Eccles were built pre-1919, which shows that properties here are slightly older than neighbouring wards and are older than the average for Salford. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 30 31 Eccles Area Private Sector Stock Condition What are the implications of private stock condition? Fig 18 Private Sector Stock Condition - Eccles 90 Percentage of Properties 80 70 60 50 Eccles Salford 40 30 20 10 0 Good Condition % Poor Repair % Unfit % State of Repair The Private Sector Stock Condition survey indicated that rates of unfitness and poor repair are slightly below the City average. Almost 21% of private properties could be considered unsatisfactory in terms of condition. These reflect the deteriorating condition of the inter-war housing stock. Total repair costs for unsatisfactory housing are estimated at £16.87 million. Average repair costs per property (£7,511) in the Eccles CCA are only marginally higher than the citywide average repair costs (£7,243). Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 32 Eccles Area Fig 20 Total Per Annum Total spend per annum Public Sector Stock Condition information is not yet available on an estate basis. However, headline figures indicate that a total of over £383.1m investment is required in the Eccles/Irlam area to give the stock a 30-year lifespan, at an average of £12.8m per year. This equates to a unit cost of £51,188. Fig 19 Cost Per Unit 58000 56000 54000 52000 50000 48000 46000 44000 ECCLES/IRLA M ECCLES/IRLAM WORSLEY/LITTLE HULTON SALFORD NORTH SALFORD SOUTH SWINTON Area WORSLEY/LIT TLE HULTON Stock Options Process SALFORD NORTH AL TH ON TH AM ON RL ULT NOR SOU INT TOT I / D ES LE H RD SW CL OR O EC /LITT ALF ALF S S Y LE RS O W 14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 EC C Cost per unit (£) COST PER UNIT £ TOTAL PER ANNUM £ LE S/ IR W LA OR M SL EY /L SA I.. . LF OR D N. SA .. LF OR D S. .. SW IN TO N Public Sector Stock Condition The Council is looking again at the options available to tenants for the future management and investment in their homes and neighbourhoods. SALFORD SOUTH SWINTON The review is essential not least to overcome the investment issues but also to recognise the broader contribution their housing makes to communities and neighbourhoods. TOTAL Area Consultation with residents started in June 2004. A steering group consisting of tenants and elected members appointed an Independent Tenant Advisor to provide support to tenants throughout the consultation process to ensure that it is balanced, effective and inclusive. The Housing Options Appraisal consultation with Salford tenants, leaseholders and residents began with the launch of the ‘Fresh Start for Housing’ document in November 2003. Following the launch, the first phase of consultation with residents was carried out, which largely focused on raising awareness about the process and its implications for Salford residents. The second phase of Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 33 Eccles Area customer consultation concentrated largely on sharing information with tenants, residents and leaseholders, asking them to think about which options they would support for their area and encouraging them to have their say about their home and their neighbourhood. The third phase of the process started in January 2005 and is centred on feeding back to residents about the options likely to deliver Decent Homes standard or above in their area, and asking them to make an informed choice about the way forward. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 34 Eccles Area Level of Satisfaction with state of repair of property Level of satisfaction with Neighbourhood Table 16 Level of Satisfaction with state of repair of property Table 17 Satisfaction Levels by Area Level of Satisfaction Eccles % Barton % Winton % Salford Total % Level of Satisfaction Eccles Barton Winton Salford Total Very satisfied 32.0 19.0 22.4 26.2 Very satisfied 35.6 16.8 17.3 24.7 Satisfied 52.3 62.3 54.0 55.1 44.4 41.3 39.0 44.9 Dissatisfied 12.8 13.8 19.3 14.6 Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 13.5 29.4 24.5 18.1 Very Dissatisfied 2.9 4.9 4.3 4.1 Dissatisfied 5.2 8.2 11.5 8.3 Total 100 100 100 100 Very Dissatisfied 1.3 4.3 7.7 4.0 Base 5304 4850 5338 95406 Total 100 100 100 100 Base 5304 4850 5338 95406 Source: HMDS Table 6a – Satisfaction with State of Repair Source: HMDS Table 28c - Satisfaction Levels by Area The table above shows the level of satisfaction with housing by ward in the Eccles Community Committee Area. The greatest numbers of those ‘very satisfied’ with their housing situation reside in the Eccles ward, which may reflect the higher levels of owner occupation. The greatest numbers of those ‘dissatisfied’ or ‘very dissatisfied’ are concentrated in the Winton ward, which contains the highest levels of deprivation and highest numbers of social rented stock. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 35 Eccles Area Market Change –Awaiting up-to-date figures from Planning for Turnover & Vacancy in turnover across the whole of Salford, suggesting perhaps that the market is stabilising. There are a number of factors that could indicate change within the operation of the housing market in Eccles. The following provides analysis on these key indicators beginning with changes in turnover rates. Turnover has decreased more markedly in the Eccles ward than the other wards in the Eccles CCA. Turnover Rates (Need to clarify information.) When the turnover rates are plotted against the city average spatially on the plan of the CCA then small pockets of high turnover can be identified. Fig 22 Annual Turnover Rate - Eccles Community Committee Area 2003 Figure 23 Percentage of change in Tenure 2003-2004 % change in turnover 2002-03 Turnover Rates 16 14 12 Eccles Barton Winton Salford 10 8 6 4 -34.0% -36.0% Barton Eccles Winton -38.0% -40.0% Series1 -42.0% -44.0% -46.0% 2 0 Eccles Barton Winton Salford Source: Council Tax Records: Turnover relates to the occurrence of people moving out of properties and new occupants moving in - essentially it notes the number of properties changing hands. The charts above shows the turnover rates for the Eccles CCA compared to the average for Salford. During the previous 12 months there has been a decrease Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 36 Salford Eccles Area Vacancy Rates Fig 24 Annual Household Vacancy Rates by Ward 2003 & 2004 The annual vacancy rates across the Eccles CCA for 2004 have changed marginally compared with 2003. Whilst the Barton ward has experienced a slight decline in turnover, the Eccles and Winton wards have had a increased in vacancy rates. 7 6 5 4 2003 2004 3 2 1 0 Eccles Barton Winton Salford Source: Council Tax Records Fig 25 Percentage Change - Annual Household Vacancy Rates 2003 & 2004 0.5% % change 2003-2004 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% Barton Eccles Winton Salford -0.2% Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 37 Eccles Area House Prices Source: Salford City Council Early Warning System Fig 26 Average House Prices by ward *October 02/ Sept 03 & Oct 03-Sept 04 Figure ** - House Prices by Property Type* House Prices by Property Type Oct 03-Sept 04 £140,000 £120,000 £300,000 £100,000 £250,000 £80,000 2002/03 2003/04 £60,000 £40,000 £200,000 Eccles £150,000 Barton Winton £100,000 Salford North West £20,000 £0 Eccles Barton Winton Salford £50,000 £0 Source: Land Registry Records (received by SCC planning department) Detached Fig 27 Percentage Change in House Prices 2003-04 Flat SemiDetached Terraced *The figures for Eccles, Barton & Winton represent average house price for Oct ’03 – Sept ’04. Figures for Salford and the North West represent average house prices for the quarter of July-Sept 04 % change in average house price 2003-2004 20 (Analysis needed) 15 What are the implications of market change? This data helps us identify pockets of high and low demand that may have normally been masked within ward level data. There are some quite defined price brackets across Eccles, with the highest values mainly in Eccles ward. Conversely, the lowest values are concentrated in pockets in the Barton ward. This is reflected in the vacancy and turnover rates and suggests that further study and monitoring and targeting of resources in these areas is needed. % change in average house price 20022003 10 5 0 Eccles Barton Winton Salford Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 38 Eccles Area Residential Mobility and Migration Patterns Fig 29 Showing Origin of Migrants moving into Eccles from areas other than Salford Migration into Eccles Fig 28 Origin of households moving to Eccles from Salford areas over the past 5 years 35 5.7% Irlam and Cadishead Kersal, Pendleton and Charlestown Ordsall and Langworthy Swinton 5 K U K O e he r ut si in de U W in e se w El he r w El se El se w he re in G W ar rin g N to n es te r an ch tr M an c he s te r Bo lto n 0 M 2.5% 10 Bu ry 1.4% 15 d 9.0% 3.2% Eccles % Salford % ffo r 3.5% 20 W ig an 7.3% Broughton and Blackfriars Claremont, Weaste and Seedley Eccles 25 Tr a 1.8% Percentage 30 Origin 65.6% Walkden and Little Hulton Worsley and Boothstown Source: HMDS Table 23a- Origin of In Migrant Households and destinations within Salford The above graph shows the origin of households moving into Eccles from outside the Salford area. It indicates that the largest number of people to have moved into Eccles are from the Trafford area (31.1%). Source: HMDS Table 23b – Residential Mobility Matrix The pie chart illustrates the origin of households moving to the Eccles CCA over the past 5 years. Comparable with other areas of the city, the information suggests that people tend to move within the same locality as their current home. This is illustrated within Eccles as over 60% of people moving into Eccles property originate from within the Eccles area itself and the remaining larger percentages are linked to neighbouring areas. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 39 Eccles Area Migration out of Eccles Figure 31 Anticipated destination of households in Eccles intending to move within the next twelve months including destinations within Salford Fig 30 Anticipated destination of out-migrant households over the next year Anticipated destination of households intending to move 50 40 30 20 10 0 Eccles Tra ffor ew d her e in G.. .. Wa r r ing Els ton ew her e In No Els r.. ew her e in UK Ou tsid e th eU K Winton Els Sw Wo into rsle n ya nd Boo thto wn Wig an Irla m& nt, W Cla rem o Ecc les Ca dis hea d Barton eas .. Percentage 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 ity Bo tr lto M n ac El he se st w W er he ar re rin in gt N on or El th se W w es he t r e O in ut U si K de th e U K (Source HMDS Table 25c – Anticipated destination of households intending to move) er C G When looking at the anticipated destination of out migrants broken down on a ward basis it can be seen that most residents intend to move within the Eccles CCA, than to elsewhere in the UK. Trafford also features strongly as an anticipated destination of residents in Barton, and Worsley appears as a possible destination for residents in Winton although this may be an indication of resident’s aspirations. in El se w he re M an c he st Bu r y Destination W ig an Tr af fo rd Percentage The pattern of in migration is largely mirrored in the anticipated destinations of out migrant households in Eccles over the next year when looking outside the city boundaries. The most likely destination of residents is again elsewhere in the UK but again the most popular choice is likely to be the North West as a whole and neighbouring authorities. Trafford again features strongly as an anticipated destination of households in Eccles. Eccles Destination Total Source: HMDS Table 23c - What are the implications of migration patterns? The trend identified is that people generally move within the same area when considering moving home. We need to ensure that the Eccles area offers the most possible choice of type and tenure available within the area people want to move, in order to keep existing residents and attract new people to the area. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 40 Eccles Area New Provision Completions 2003 – 2004 by House Type (new build only) Table 18 New Build Completions 1996 – 2004 Ward Total Conversions Total Dwellings COU Additions 230 Eccles 185 45 238 Barton 227 11 97 Winton 91 6 Eccles 565 CCA 503 62 Ward Clearance / Demolition 8 28 1 Eccles Barton Winton Eccles CCA 37 Whole House or Bungalow (No of Beds) 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 4 5 3 0 0 18 18 4+ 0 0 0 0 Total 1 0 22 23 Flat, Maisonette, or Apartment (No of Beds) 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 36 12 48 3 0 0 0 0 4+ 0 0 0 0 Total 0 36 12 48 Source: Table 3 Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Source: Table 8 Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Completions breakdown 1st April 2003 – 31st March 2004 (new build) Eccles Barton Winton Eccles CCA Total 71 1 36 34 Completions Tenure Priv 1 71 36 34 Tenure HA 0 0 0 0 Tenure LA 0 0 0 0 UDP 0 0 0 0 Allocated Site Windfall 49 1 36 12 <0.4 Ha Windfall 0 0 0 0 0.4 – 1.0 Ha Windfall 22 0 0 22 >1.0 Ha Type of Site 0 0 0 0 Greenfield Type of Site 1 71 36 34 Brownfield The table above shows the number of newly built homes in each of the three electoral wards in the Eccles Community Committee Area between 1996 and 2003. Barton has had the most new properties built within its boundaries. 10.40% of all new builds in Salford as a whole were built in the Eccles CCA. Additions to Residential Stock Residential Completions April 2003 - March 2004 Ward New Build Net Total Completions Conversions Additions Eccles 1 11 12 Barton 36 2 38 Winton 34 0 34 Eccles CCA 71 13 84 Source: Table 2a Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Under Residential Completions by Brownfield Split (new build only) , the Resland report highlights that all new builds within the Eccles CCA during 2003-2004 were completed on Brownfield sites. Source: Table 2b Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 41 Eccles Area Total Remaining Dwellings as at 31st March 2004 (Includes sites under construction, Sites with Planning permission, and UDP allocations without planning permission) Eccles Barton Winton Eccles CCA No of dwellings 402 231 65 106 Reductions to Residential Stock Reductions to Residential Stock (1st April ‘03 to 31st March ‘04) Ward Eccles Barton Winton Eccles CCA Demolitions Total Conversions Total Change of Use Total Net Reductions Total 6 0 0 6 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 8 remaining Not Started Under Construction Area (Ha) Total Area (Ha) Residual Undeveloped UDP Sites Windfall <0.4 Ha Windfall 0.4ha – 1.0 ha Windfall >1.0ha Greenfield Sites Brownfield Sites Private Housing Association Local Authority Unknown Tenure Source: Table 7 Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Area Off Land Available for Development as at 31st March 2004 (Includes sites under construction, Sites with Planning permission, and adopted UDP allocations without planning permission) Eccles Barton Winton Eccles CCA No of dwellings 402 231 65 106 remaining Not Started Under Construction Area (Ha) Total Area (Ha) Residual Undeveloped UDP Sites Windfall <0.4 Ha Windfall 0.4ha – 1.0 ha Windfall >1.0ha Greenfield Sites Brownfield Sites Brown/Greenfield Private Housing Association Local Authority Unknown Tenure 178 53 5.07 4.70 58 7 0.84 0.72 100 6 2.05 1.35 336 66 7.96 6.77 1.36 1.85 0 1.49 0.7 2.51 1.49 4.00 0.07 0.63 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.0 0.72 0 0.36 0 0 0.36 0 0.21 0 1.14 0.0 1.34 0 1.34 0 0 0 1.36 2.78 0 2.63 0.7 4.57 1.49 5.7 0.07 0.63 0.36 178 53 5.07 4.70 58 7 0.84 0.72 100 6 2.05 1.35 336 66 7.96 6.77 33 138 0 60 30 201 187 1 9 34 0 65 0 0 0 65 47 0 0 18 0 54 0 52 0 106 106 0 0 0 33 257 0 112 30 372 340 1 9 52 Source: Table 13 Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Source: Table 13 Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 42 Eccles Area Barton BA027 Barton BA030 Eccles EC044 Winton WI023 Winton WI025 Land adjacent to 1Berry St, Eccles Barton Wesleyan Meth Church, Barton Rd, Eccles Land Between 13/15 Brackley Road, Eccles Land at Barton Hall, Hardy St, Peel Green, Eccles Monton Lodge, 3 Parrin Lane, Eccles Unitary Development Plan Information (Nov 2003)– potential sites for new housing within the Eccles CCA Type of Site Brownfield Windfall <0.4 Ha Tenure Private Total Completions Locations Completions 1st April 2003 to 31st March 2004 4 4 4 4 32 32 32 32 1 1 1 1 22 22 22 22 12 12 12 12 Land at Barton Lane, Barton (2.0ha) The site is currently used as a lorry park, but this is a temporary use, the planning permission for which expires in August 2007. There is potential to redevelop the site for housing, complementing the recent residential development immediately to the west. Any development would need to achieve a minimum net density of 35 dwellings per hectare, and contribute to the provision of a strategic recreation route along the Manchester Ship Canal. Access should be independent from the Newhaven Business Park, which lies immediately to the east, and the incorporation of noise mitigation measures in accordance with policy EN14 may be required to ensure that the business park does not detract from residential amenity, Source: Appendix 2 Residential Development and Land Supply in Salford 2003-2004 Former Greenwood School, Stafford Road, Ellesemere Park, Eccles (1.5ha) Following the reorganisation of special schools in the City, Greenwood School closed in July 2001 and was subsequently demolished. Part of the schools playing field will be incorporated in to the adjacent “Three Sisters” recreation area (policy R614). The remainder of the school site (the site of the school buildings and less than half of the playing fields) is considered suitable for provision of family housing at a minimum net density of 30 dwellings per hectare. (Include Liverpool Rd information) Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 43 Eccles Area Achievements Speak to Planning (Metrolink) Introduction During the first half of 2003, a comprehensive survey (Housing Market Demand Study) was conducted in Salford to explore the housing needs, aspirations and requirements of those living in Salford, those currently sharing with someone else, and as far as possible, households who may move into Salford. 3. Housing Need in Salford Key Findings: Citywide around 32% of people in need have a mortgage or 32% rent from the Council. However, nearly 40% of the private sector is in housing need. Overcrowding figures for the Eccles CCA are similar to the city average than the city average (%). Under occupancy figures for the Eccles CCA are in line with the city average (%). Eccles has a slightly larger percentage of people with long term limiting disability (25.3%) than the other wards in the Eccles area, which is also greater than the Salford average of 22.8%. More people in Eccles find it fairly easy or very easy to pay for housing costs compared to city average. Barton and Winton Wards show that people having difficulties to pay housing costs is marginally higher than the city average. There is further detailed study needed to identify need for other groups such as Young people and Teenage Parents. The overall aim of the study was to provide an accurate assessment of the future housing requirements in Salford across all areas and tenures, and to access the current housing situation of all client groups. Housing Need Table 19 Number of households in need by area Wards Frequency % Broughton and Blackfriars Claremont, Weaste & Seedley Eccles Irlam and Cadishead Kersal, Pendleton & Charlestown Ordsall and Langworthy Swinton Walkden and Little Hulton Worsley and Boothstown Total 1345 1008 1940 957 1648 1106 1542 1887 379 11812 11.4 8.5 1 6.4 8.1 14.0 9.4 13.1 16.0 3.2 100 As % of all households 16.7 10.3 12.5 12.2 17.6 16.0 9.4 12.0 6.5 12.4 The table above denotes the frequency and percentage of housing need across Salford by Community Committee Area. 16.4% of people in Salford with a housing need reside in Eccles, which represents the largest portion in the city. However, this only represents 12.5% of the total number of households in Eccles, which is only fractionally higher than the city average. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 44 Eccles Area Homeless or with insecure tenure Fig 32 Overcrowding and under occupancy by area The ‘Understanding Change’ document identifies the need to break down the homeless information into a ward level. 45.0 40.0 Overcrowding 35.0 Citywide it is thought that 4.6% of properties are over-crowded whereas 54.9% of homes are under-occupied. In the Eccles Community Committee Area, all wards have a higher rate of underoccupancy than the Salford average. Barton and Eccles wards have a marginally lower level of over-occupation and the Winton ward has a marginally higher level than the city average. 30.0 Barton Eccles Winton Salford % 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 This could suggest that in the more stable residential parts of Eccles, there is a tendency for owners to remain in family accommodation when children leave and under occupy the property. 5.0 0.0 shortfall of 1 bedroom shortfall of 2 shortfall of bedrooms more than 2 bedrooms Equal to standard excess of 1 bedroom excess of 2 bedrooms excess of 3 or more bedrooms (Source HMDS – Table 16a – Overcrowding & Underoccupancy by Area) Affordability Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 45 Eccles Area Perecentage of Population Fig 33 Difficulty with Housing costs by area. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Eccles % Barton % Winton % Salford Total % Very Difficult Fairly Difficult Fairly Easy Very Easy Level of Difficulty/Ease with Housing Costs Source : HMDS Table 19a – Difficulty with housing costs by area This indicates that more people in Eccles find it fairly easy or very easy to pay for housing costs compared to city average. Whilst Barton and Winton Wards show that people having difficulties to pay housing costs is marginally higher than the city average. What are the implications of affordability issues? Further monitoring of affordability is needed to identify where and what type of households are affected. Is there an issue with the lack of affordable housing in the Winton, Barton and Eccles Wards? Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 46 Eccles Area Disability and Impairment Fig 35 Percentage of the population with a long-term limiting illness % of population with long-term limiting illness 12 10 8 Eccles 6 Barton 4 Winton 2 Salford 0 rd an ch es te N r or th En W gl es an t d & W al es England & Wales M Sa lfo to n North West G re at er W in n Greater Manchester Ba rto Ec cl es % of population age 16-74 permanently sick or disabled Fig 34 Percentage of the population aged 16-74 permanently sick/disabled (economically inactive) (Source: Census 2001 – Summary Neighbourhood Statistics) The illustration suggests that Barton and Winton Wards have slightly higher proportion of permanently sick or disabled people than the average for Salford, but the Eccles ward has a similar figure to Salford. Salford does have higher proportions of permanently sick and disabled compared to other parts of the country. 30 25 Eccles 20 Barton 15 Winton Salford 10 England & Wales 5 0 Eccles Barton Winton Salford England & Wales (Source: Census 2001 – Summary Neighbourhood Statistics) All of the wards have a marginally higher proportion of people with a long-term limiting illness when compared to Salford. Whereas Salford has higher proportions of population with a long-term limiting illness than is average nationally. What are the implications of disability and illness with regard to housing? It is imperative that we monitor the proportions of disabled people living in the area. Those with disabilities may have increased need when it comes to housing and may need an adapted property. The Council must ensure that the area has sufficient provision and also ensure that the designs of new developments are consistent with the needs of the community Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 47 Eccles Area Health Deprivation and Disability Domain This domain identifies areas with relatively high rates of people who die prematurely or whose quality of life is impaired by poor health or who are disabled, across the whole population. Years of Potential Life Lost (1997-2001). Comparative Illness and Disability Ratio (2001). Measures of emergency admissions to hospital (19992002). Adults under 60 suffering from mood or anxiety disorders (19972002). Figure 36 Rank Index (Analysis Missing) Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 48 Eccles Area SPECIFIC GROUPS Teenage Parents BME Summary required Again, accommodation based support for teenage parents highlighted as a priority for research. People with Learning Difficulties What are the implications of a multi-cultural community? In a changing society, we must recognise the needs and cultural differences of residents in relation to housing. Further detailed work is being carried out to assess the implications of a diverse community on the citywide housing market. There is no area specific information available. These households are dispersed throughout the city and the majority appear to reside in social rented accommodation. People with Mental Health Difficulties Asylum Seekers There is no area specific information available. These households are dispersed throughout the city and the majority appear to reside in social rented accommodation. Research suggests uneven dispersal of asylum seekers throughout the city with a disproportionately low number of placements in Salford West, of which Eccles is part. Student Accommodation Older People What are the implications of levels of housing need? Already identified an ageing population. Independent living focus. The Council in conjunction with partners has been exploring the concept of an elderly village in Salford. We have some detailed data on older people supply mapping that is being used to formulate an older persons strategy. Younger People The Supporting People shadow strategy identifies that further research or a Young Persons Housing Strategy is needed. There are multi-faceted needs of young people and although this a small proportion of people these needs need to be focussed on. There is no area specific information available. Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 49 Eccles Area 4. Future Housing Requirements be an increase in the number of owner occupier and private rented accommodation. Key findings: Household Demand Forecast of Eccles Area The HMDS suggests that there will be an increase in demand for Owner Occupied accommodation in the Eccles CCA over the next 5 years. Research undertaken as part of the Housing Market Demand Study has suggested that there will be a decrease in the overall demand for properties in the Eccles area over the next five years. There will be increased demand for 2, 3 and 4 bedroom properties. This is particularly noticeable for three bedroomed properties. Housing Requirements by Tenure There will be an increase in demand for owner-occupier properties and privately rented properties. Shared ow nership Research implies that demand for 1 bedroom properties will diminish, as well as for properties with more than four bedrooms. Rented privately/ home w ith job Similarly, it is thought that there will be decreased demand for properties rented from Housing Associations and Local Authority, and Shared ownership properties. Tenure Fig 37 Eccles Projected Demand by Tenure Rented from Housing Association There is a minor issue with affordable housing supply, with 1.3% of the Eccles’ CCA total population living in unaffordable accommodation. Eccles Rented from Local Authority ntroduction Ow ner Occupied A key element of the Housing Market Demand Study was to ascertain current and future demand for properties across the city, and more specifically according to area, tenure and house type and size. Analysing demand for accommodation based on household flows and emerging demand from those households likely to move over the next 5 years resulted in an assessment that there will be a reduction in the demand for rented accommodation from Local Authority and Registered Social Landlords, but there is predicted to Understanding local housing markets IN Salford -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 Number of Properties Source: HMDS Table 26b-Household flow projections for 2001- 2006 50 Eccles Area The graph highlights the need for owner-occupied properties, with demand for 270 additional units over the next 5 years, either through new-build or better use of current void properties. There is also a demand for additional privately rented properties Additionally, there is a projected decrease in demand for properties to be rented from a registered social landlord or housing association. The research suggests a decrease in demand for houses owned by the local authority, perhaps because people aspire to own their property rather than rent from a landlord – which corresponds to the rise in projected demand for owner-occupied properties. Also implied is a fall in demand for properties with shared ownership. The graph demonstrates a projected increase in demand for properties with two, three and four bedrooms within the Eccles area. The demand increase is particularly noticeable for three and four bedroomed properties. A fall in demand for properties with one bedroom, and particularly bedsits is expected over the coming years. Similarly, diminished demand is expected for properties with more than four bedrooms Housing Requirements by Property Type Housing Requirements by Property Size Fig 38 Eccles – Projected Demand by Property Size The research mainly suggests a rise in demand for semidetached and detached properties. It is suggested that demand for terraced housing will diminish over the coming years, perhaps as peoples aspirations change towards more spacious properties with more facilities such as parking and larger gardens. Number of bedrooms None More than four Four Eccles Three Two One -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 Projected Demand (no. of properties) Source: HMDS Table 26c Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 51 Eccles Area Fig 39 Eccles - Projected Demand by Property Type Affordable Housing Supply Table 40 Location and tenure of households living in unaffordable accommodation Caravan/ mobile home Maisonette Area Property Type Bedsit Abv GF Flat Bungalow Terraced Semi-det Detached -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 Projected demand (no. of households) Source: HMDS Table 26d What are the implications of the suggested future housing requirements? The future housing requirements identified by the study are aspirational and need to be tested. This information then needs to feed directly into and influence the Council’s planning and draft U.D.P. proposals. (SHAHLA Z to progress) Source: HMDS 27e – Characteristics of households living in unaffordable accommodation It is apparent that Eccles has a minor issue with the supply of affordable housing, with 1.3% of households living in unaffordable accommodation. It has been suggested that the majority of those households are owner-occupied. The Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder activities will affect the level of housing need (requirements) within Central Salford and West Salford. Research is currently being undertaken to identify these impacts. The outcome of this research will provide a better assessment of future housing need (requirements). Understanding local housing markets IN Salford % Broughton and Blackfriars 110 9.8 1.4 Claremont, Weaste and Seedley 29 2.6 0.3 Eccles 208 18.5 1.3 Irlam and Cadishead 70 6.2 0.9 Kersal, Pendleton and Charlestown 248 22.1 2.6 Ordsall and Langworthy 74 6.6 1.1 Swinton 169 15.1 1.0 Walkden and Little Hulton 172 15.3 1.1 Worsley and Boothstown 42 3.7 0.7 Base: 1,241 Households within unaffordable accommodation Eccles Gnd Flr Flat Frequency As % of households in area 52 Eccles Area 5. Projected Requirements Private stock Do you feel that the private stock in Eccles CCA is of good quality? Do you feel that quality and condition is linked to a particular tenure type or stock type or just to the age of properties? The draft report should provide key information relating to factors that we think influence the local housing market in the Eccles CCA. Before we complete the final chapter and start to look at developing local solutions to local housing issues in the Eccles CCA we would like you to take time to read the document and pass any comments on our findings back to us. We are particularly interested in your view of the reasons behind some of our findings. Social Rented Stock Do you think changes need to be made to the way social rented stock is managed and invested in? Housing market change Do you think the rising house prices indicate a stable housing market in Eccles CCA? Our findings indicate that there are differences in the average house prices between the Eccles, Barton and Winton wards. What does this finding suggest to you? Can you test some of our assumptions and indicate other areas of research that might be needed? Answer any questions you have a view on or comment as you think is appropriate. We have suggested a few questions below for you to consider. Points for thought and discussion Recent achievements There have been significant achievements in the area recently, but do you think these match up to the aspirations of residents and are appropriate to the city? Do you think there is the need or demand for the number of apartment developments in the area or are the current developments predominantly investor led? Geography There has been a modest increase in population across Eccles Community Committee Area – why do you think this is? How strong do you think the differing performances of high schools will affect the housing markets in that area? How much of an impact on housing markets do you think crime and perceptions of crime have? Our findings suggest that juvenile nuisance is higher in the Barton and Winton Wards – do you think this is impacting on the housing market in these areas? Potential sites What is your view on the opportunities for new development in Eccles CCA? Housing need Are you aware of any specific groups with a housing need in the Eccles CCA? Do you think the increases or decreases suggested by the needs assessment are reflective of the actual housing market? Housing stock Do you feel that there is a tenure imbalance in certain wards? Does this suggest limited residential choice or affordability issues in certain areas? How do you think the Council should try and influence the market in this area to change the balance of tenure? Understanding local housing markets IN Salford Are there any other particular issues / areas of research that the Council need to address and is missing from the summary? 53 Eccles Area I would be grateful if you could return all comments in the format of choice to: Christine Lamb Housing Strategy Officer, Strategy & Regeneration Division, Chief Executive Directorate, Salford City Council, Crompton House, 100 Chorley Road, Salford. M27 6ES Email: Christine.lamb@salford.gov.uk Telephone: 0161 922 8729 Fax: 0161 793 3736 Can I thank you in anticipation of your assistance in this matter. Shahla Zandi Principal Officer Housing Strategy & Planning Understanding local housing markets IN Salford 54 Eccles Area