Bus transport sector Presentation by Background Objectives of the project Rationale for selection of Bus Transport: Selection of States/Cities – Bus Transport Selection of States – Bus Transport North East South West Central New Delhi, Delhi Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh Kolkata, West Bengal Patna, Bihar Bangalore, Karnataka Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh Chennai, Tamil Nadu Mumbai, Maharashtra Ahmedabad, Gujarat Jaipur, Rajasthan Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh Methodology – desk based research i. ii. Literature review, Discussion with experts of competition policy, reform initiatives, iii. Collection and analysis of secondary data iv. Stakeholder identification v. Selection of impact/welfare issues to be covered , hypothesis formation vi. Selection of variables on which data to be collected, identification of data sources vii. Development of questionnaires for perception survey, viii. Development of guidelines for in-depth interview ix. Finalisation of sampling framework Methodology – field visits i. Data collection from govt. officials dealing with specific sector • Not all information available readily from secondary sources • Especially, in case of bus transport ii. Perception survey of producers and consumers • To obtain the feedback on issues relevant to the stakeholders iii. In-depth interview of stake holders • To understand the perspective of stakeholders in respect of • general operational aspects of the sector, as well on • competition. Perception survey sampling Sample size: 300 respondents from each of the two states. Intra city bus passenger: 200 samples from each state 5 busy routes or 40 regular passengers per route Routes were selected from both BRTS services and regular city services routes Respondent selection was at random from regular bus commuters Perception survey sampling Inter-city routes: • Two routes (50 passengers from each route) from amongst the busiest ones. • The selected two routes should show contrast in terms of operators/buses, frequency, route length etc. Bhopal: Bhopal-Indore (high frequency, large no. of buses, 250km distance); Bhopal-Gwalior (low frequency, limited number of buses, 450 km distance) Ahmedabad: Ahmedabad-Baroda (Public dominance, short distance of 110 km, high frequency, alternate mode train available throughout the day), Ahmedabad-Jamnagar (Limited public service, Longer distance of 320 km, lower frequency, limited alternate mode of travel) Shortlisted reforms and issues for investigation and contrasts across cities – intra-city bus transport Reform measure Reform/ issues in question Public vs Private operators Madhya Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation abolished in 2005. Issue(s) under investigation Bus Rapid Introduction of BRTS in Transport System Ahmedabad in 2009 and in Bhopal in 2010. Nature of the market (prevalence of public and private players) Level of participation of private players in intra-city bus transport Entry and exit barriers, and concerns of operators Availability and reliability of buses for the average consumer Nature of public-private interactions in providing bus services Price setting (fare), route determination, bus schedule preparation mechanism; role of operator and Government; Market power of private operators Regulatory aspects – limitations imposed on private operators; licensing/permit terms Consumer concerns Shortlisted reforms and issues for investigation and contrasts across cities – inter-city bus transport Reform measure Private-Public players Reform/ issues in question Stage vs Contract carriage status Issue(s) under investigation MPSRTC abolished in 2005. MP inter-city largely catered by private operators. Significant presence of public operators in Gujarat, even though private participation is allowed. Monopoly given to GSRTC to operate as sole stage carriage operator in 1994. With MPSRTC abolished, private operators can operate as stage carriages. Nature of the market (prevalence of public and private players) Level of participation of private players in inter-city bus transport Entry and exit barriers; permitted services Operational freedom of operators Price setting (fare) mechanism and its regulation Availability and reliability of buses for the average consumer Nature of public private interactions in providing bus services Entry and exit barriers; permitted services Operational freedom of operators Price setting (fare) mechanism and its regulation Consumer concerns Competition analysis framework Large number of players, inter-player rivalry Large Size of market Threat of substitution Free entry – exit; Low barriers GREATER MARKET COMPETITION Bargaining power of buyers and sellers Freedom in operational decision making High private participation Competition framework Intra city Regular Ahmedabad: • In Ahmedabad, intra-city regular bus transport network is controlled by Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation controlled Ahmedabad Municipal Transport Services (AMTS). Bhopal: • In Bhopal, intra-city regular bus transport network is controlled by Bhopal Municipal Corporation controlled Bhopal City Link Ltd (BCLL). Competition framework: Intra-city Regular NUMBER OF PLAYERS, FLEET SIZE AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city Regular ENTRY – EXIT OF PRIVATE BUS OPERATORS AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city Regular PRIVATE PARTICIPATION AHMEDABAD BHOPAL AMTS - fleet held, operated & utilization ratio Operated fleet size static; fleet utilization on the decline. 1200 1000 800 80% 1120 966 78% 78% 985 942 76% 750 750 674 72% 671 74% 72% 600 70% 68% 68% 67% 400 66% 64% 200 62% 0 60% March'10 Average Fleet Held (Number) March'11 March'12 Average Fleet Operated (Number) March'13 Fleet Utilisation (%) Competition framework: Intra-city Regular FARE DETERMINATION AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city Regular AMTS fare-fuel price change comparison: Fare rise lower than fuel price increase in the shorter distances 30 30% 25 25 25% 25% 23 22 22% 21% 20 22% 20% 17 15 19% 18 17 17% 20% 19 20% 18 18% 21 21% 20 18% 15 15 15% 14 13 12 13% 11 12 11 10 10 9 10% 9 8 7 6 5 5% 3 3 0 0% 0% 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 Fare as on 01-04-2012 8 to 10 10 to 14 Fare as on 01-04-2013 14 to 18 18 to 22 Fare increase 22 to 26 26 to 32 32 to 38 38 to 44 Diesel price increase (April 12 to April 13) 44 to 50 Competition framework: Intra-city Regular FINANCIAL SUPPORT AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Revenue-Cost comparison for AMTS Cost overruns revenue consistently and expanding rapidly, requiring ever increasing external support 350 316 300 261 237 RS CRORE 250 230 185 200 150 100 84 98 96 144 93 109 50 49 49 56 118 109 120 57 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Annual Revenue (Rs crore) Annual Cost (Rs crore) AMTS cost structure Staff cost accounts for half of AMTS total cost (2012-2013) 29% Staff Cost 50% Fuel & Lubricant Cost Tyres & Tubes Cost Spares Cost 1% Interest Cost 0% 2% 1% 0% 17% Depreciation Cost Tax Cost Other Costs AMTS revenue 16,000 14,374 14,000 12,000 11,962 11,770 10,891 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,338 1,945 2,074 March'10 March'11 3,516 3,318 3,167 2,444 2,657 March'12 March'13 0 Revenue (Rs lakh) Revenue/km (Paise) Revenue/Bus/Day (Rs.) Competition framework: Intra-city Regular ROUTE IDENTIFACTION, ROUTE ALLOCATION AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city Regular BARGAINING POWER AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city Regular CONCERNS SHARED BY PRIVATE OPERATORS (Bhopal) Road safety comparison across the cities Road accident profile (Ahmedabad) Road accident profile (Bhopal) 2494 8 2000 3076 2500 3623 10 3,459 3000 14 2,970 11 12 10 9.2 8.3 7.9 8 7.3 1845 1850 2,020 2,124 2,036 8.6 2232 2179 2000 2135 2519 12 11.2 10.4 2500 3500 3152 3000 14 16 3719 13.6 4000 3305 3500 16 3554 4000 2008 2009 2010 Fatal Accidents All Accidents Persons Injured Severity 2011 2012 Persons Killed 301 278 299 275 272 0 244 0 0 279 2 263 500 251 2 245 500 227 4 222 1000 235 4 226 1000 200 6 188 1500 263 6 244 1500 0 2008 2009 2011 Fatal Accidents All Accidents Persons Injured Severity Note: Accident Severity refers to road accident deaths per 100 accidents 2012 Persons Killed Competition framework Intra city BRTS Ahmedabad: • In Ahmedabad, BRTS bus transport network is controlled by Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation controlled Ahmedabad Janmarg Ltd. • It started operation in 2009. Bhopal: • In Bhopal, BRTS bus transport network is controlled by Bhopal Municipal Corporation controlled Bhopal City Link Ltd (BCLL). • It started operation in 2013. Competition framework: Intra-city BRTS NUMBER OF PLAYERS, FLEET SIZE, FREQUENCY, ROUTE IDENTIFACTION AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city BRTS ENTRY – EXIT; PRIVATE PARTICIPATION; ROUTE ALLOCATION AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city BRTS FARE DETERMINATION AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework: Intra-city Regular REVENUE SHARING AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Janmarg revenue (in Rs lakh) Helped by ‘Other Income’, Janmarg prunes its losses Particulars (in Rs crore) 31.03.12 31.03.11 2,913 1,612 Advertisement Income and Pay and Park income 106 49 Other incomes 675 107 Total Income 3,693 1,768 Total expenses 3,825 2,692 Profit / (Loss) before Depreciation /Amortisation (131) (925) 1 2 (134) (926) Nil 0 (134) (926) Bus Fare Income Less: Depreciation / Amortisation Profit / (Loss) before Tax Less: Deferred tax liability Profit / (Loss) after Tax Competition framework: Intra-city Regular BARGAINING POWER AHMEDABAD BHOPAL Competition framework Inter city Gujarat/Ahmedabad: • Both public and private operators are active in the inter city routes. • The SRTUs, however, enjoy monopoly in the stage carriage segment since 1994. • Private operators can ply only as contract carriage since then. MP/Bhopal: • In Bhopal, MPSRTC was abolished in 2005 due to operational inefficiencies. • Currently, all the routes are open for all, and the inter-city services are largely dominated by private operators. • Some public entities like MP Tourism Development, BCLL, etc. also runs limited inter-city operation. • Both private and public player can operate as stage carriages or contract carriages, solely at the discretion of the operators’ need. Size of bus transport sector in Gujarat Bus population and new registration 4000 Stage and contract carriage numbers 60000 60000 3500 50000 3000 48536 50000 50415 40000 2500 2000 30000 1500 20000 1000 10000 500 0 0 40000 30000 29558 29722 29756 18978 20000 20693 22336 10000 0 STAGE CARRIAGE NO OF NEW BUSES REGISTERED BUS POPULATION CONT. CARRIAGE Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Total 52092 Size of bus transport sector in Madhya Pradesh 34,166 29,636 28,331 27,149 30,000 25,126 35,000 30,591 40,000 2,625 2,472 1,845 4,000 3,500 2,500 2,311 1,854 1,752 3,798 3,000 25,000 20,000 35,639 45,000 39,437 • Largely operated by stage carriages • Accounts for 97% of total fleet size. • Expanding at 7% pa. 2,000 1,737 1,500 15,000 1,000 10,000 500 5,000 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Registered Stage carriages Total Registered Contract carriages Newly Registered Stage carriages Newly Registered Contract carriages Competition framework: Inter-city NUMBER OF PLAYERS GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH Competition framework: Inter-city FLEET SIZE GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH GSRTC - physical performance Staff strength and passenger carried Fleet size, age and fuel efficiency 10.00 9.08 100.00 9.00 8.00 84.83 80.53 7.07 6.92 7.00 87.49 90.00 7.64 7.69 7.66 7.72 85.59 84.11 80.00 6.00 5.53 5.55 5.53 5.50 5.50 70.00 60.00 5.00 4.13 4.00 50.00 3.32 41.67 40.07 40.67 41.86 40.37 40.00 3.00 30.00 2.00 20.00 1.00 - 10.00 Avg. Fleet Held (in '000) 2008-09 2009-10 Avg Age of Fleet (Years) 2010-11 2011-12 Fuel Efficiency (Km/litre of HSD) 2012-13 Staff Strength (in '000) 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Passenger Carried (in crore) 2011-12 2012-13 MPSRTC – just before abolishment Avg. Fleet Held (Number) 2,146 Total Revenue 22,436 Avg Fleet Operated (Number) 1,760 Total Cost 32,297 Revenue Earning KMS (Lakhs) 17,180 Staff Costs 6,539 Staff Strength (Number) 11,204 Fuel & Lubricant Costs 9,288 Fuel Efficiency (Km/litre of HSD) 41 Tyres & Tubes Passenger KMS Offered (Lakhs) 832,338 Spares Passenger KMS Performed (Lakhs) 508,018 Passenger Carried (Lakhs) 690 No.of Accidents 232 No. of Fatal Accidents 69 Interest Depreciation Taxes Others 888 2,285 1,531 586 3,619 7,561 Competition framework: Inter city ENTRY-EXIT, PRIVATE PARTICIPATION, BARRIERS GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH Competition framework: Inter city FARE DETERMINATION; GOVERNMENT SUPPORT GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH GSRTC - financial performance Cost overruns revenue in all years except 2007-08. Ran a deficit of Rs 3 billion/ Rs 300 crore in 2012 -13 30.0 27.8 RS IN BILLION (OR ’00 CRORE) 26.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 15.8 15.1 15.0 14.6 15.4 16.4 15.9 16.8 17.0 21.3 24.0 24.8 18.2 19.7 17.8 17.5 14.3 10.0 11.4 12.4 12.0 5.0 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Annual Revenue (Rs billion) Annual Cost (Rs billion) GSRTC – cost figures (In Rs) 1961 51,657.00 0.52 1.17 436.00 78.00 128.00 2,242.00 2.80 Vehicle Diesel (per ltr) Engine oil (per ltr) Set of tyre, tube & flap Battery Avg emolument per employee per month MV Tax Net fare of GSRTC per passenger km in paise CONTRIBUTION OF COST HEADS IN TOTAL COST MV Tax 0.27% 2001 956,116.00 18.03 28.00 5,653.00 1,481.00 8,337.00 5,040.00 28.87 2010 1,341,598.00 35.85 80.00 7,117.00 2,460.00 15,638.00 5,040.00 40.46 Vehicl e Avg emolument per employee per month 47.53% Diesel (per ltr) 39.94% Battery 0.22% Engine oil (per ltr) 0.81% Set of tyre, tube & flap 2.75% CAGR (20012010) 4% 8% 12% 3% 6% 7% 0% 4% Cumulative net Capital Expenditure by GSRTC 12,000.00 Particular 900.00 800.00 10,000.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 6,000.00 400.00 4,000.00 300.00 RS IN CRORE RS IN LAKHS 8,000.00 (i) Land Net Share in net investment investment over 2003-04 (2003-04 to to 2009-10 2009-10) (in Rs lakh) (in %) 4.44 0% (ii) Buildings 3,389.80 10% (iii) Vehicles 30,029.64 86% 136.48 0% 1,396.68 4% 200.00 2,000.00 100.00 - - (i) Land (in lakh) (ii) Buildings (in lakh) (iv) Depttl. Vehicles (in lakh) (v) PME items (in lakh) (iii) Vehicles (in crore) (iv) Depttl. Vehicles (v) PME items Competition framework: Inter city ROUTE DECISION GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH GSRTC performance and service profile Load factor, fleet utilisation, regularity 100% 96% 95% 95% 95% 94% 94% 96% 96% 95% 96% 95% 90% 100.00% 97% 98% 97% 97% 87.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 57.95% 85% 80% GSRTC Service Profile 86% 86% 86% 83% 87% 85% 83% 60.00% 50.00% 75% 40.00% 70% 30.00% 65% 66% 60% 63% 61% 55% 57% 58% 58% 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 67% 20.00% 7.03% 10.00% 50% 2006-07 2007-08 16.79% 2008-09 Load factor (%) Fleet utilization (%) Departure regularity (%) Arrival regularity (%) 2009-10 19.86% 4.88% 9.26% 0.36% 0.16% 5.04% 0.00% Express/Super Gurjarnagari expressGurjarnagari With Conductor Without Conductor Luxury Express category Share in service length Ordinary Share in passenger carried Competition framework: Inter city COMPETITION GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH Ahmedabad falls behind Bhopal in terms of passenger perception on incremental ‘significant’ improvement in the recent times Significant Improvement Marginal Improvement 0% 56% 41% 16% 18% 51% Significant Improvement Marginal Improvement 9% 5% 18% 17% 6% 7% 0% 16% 10% 9% 10% 9% 20% 13% 20% 1% 30% 36% 40% 39% 30% 62% 61% 70% 50% 57% 40% 39% 50% 16% 50% 60% 60% 4% 60% 46% 70% 18% 70% 16% 80% 39% 80% 22% 90% 46% 90% 51% 100% 61% 100% 43% Bhopal Ahmedabad Perceived positive impact of introduction of BRTS in both the cities on distance to travel to reach bus stop, timeliness of service, availability, frequency and waiting time 120% 100% 46% 45% 40% 41% 44% 44% 48% 40% 56% 60% 43% 80% 49% 39% Ahm 49% Bpl 41% Ahm 48% 44% Bpl 43% Ahm 41% 34% 20% 35% 40% 0% Distance from stop Timeliness Bpl Availability Significant Improvement Ahm Bpl Frequency Marginal Improvement Ahm Bpl Waiting time Perceived positive impact of introduction of BRTS in both the cities on bus type, comfort, safety too. Impact on fare though is not that positive. 100% 90% 80% 47% 48% 48% 46% 59% 60% 52% 70% 50% 40% 38% 30% 6% 3% Bpl Ahm Bpl Ahm Bpl 0% Ahm Bpl Types of bus services Ahm 49% 39% 41% 36% 10% 28% 20% 38% 30% Comfort Significant Improvement Safety Marginal Improvement Fare Impact on intra city transport of (a) continued Govt. monopoly in Ahmedabad and (b) abolishment of MPSRTC in Bhopal Ahmedabad sees considerable improvement despite continued government control. Bhopal not so positive despite the recent change in intra city transport set up. Ahmedabad Bhopal 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% Significant Improvement Marginal Improvement 33% 8% 32% 7% 40% 5% 31% 31% 8% Significant Improvement 9% 31% 8% 25% 11% 11% Marginal Improvement 0% 3% 0% 8% 10% 14% 10% 12% 20% 14% 20% 12% 30% 13% 30% 22% 40% 4% 53% 54% 40% 60% 80% 61% 80% 76% 90% 58% 90% 55% 100% 59% 100% Fare increase is largely in tune with general price rise 120% 100% 14% 80% 33% 60% 64% 40% 59% 20% 22% 0% 8% Ahmedabad Fare increase higher than general price Fare increase lower than general price Bhopal Fare increase similar to general price Satisfaction level is higher in Bhopal Bhopal Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied 40% 16% 45% 43% 43% 18% 16% 48% 0% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied 11% 17% 21% 24% 42% 9% 11% 11% 11% 12% 10% 13% 14% 27% 17% 19% 0% 10% 35% 20% 20% 10% 30% 47% 35% 30% 40% 45% 55% 57% 58% 57% 53% 50% 55% 40% 56% 50% 15% 60% 50% 60% 52% 70% 56% 70% 44% 80% 58% 80% 52% 90% 55% 90% 49% Ahmedabad Though Gujarat has a better inter-city bus transport service, incremental improvement is tapering off in the following select parameters. 120% 20% 30% 14% 36% 16% 80% 26% 36% 20% 100% Ahm No. of operators Availability Marginal improvement Frequency Significant improvement Ahm 6% Bhp Timeliness Bhp Waiting time Indore 28% 10% 2% Vadodara Ahm Gwalior 12% Jamnagar Indore 6% 42% 48% 30% 22% Vadodara 18% Bhp Gwalior 14% Jamnagar 12% Ahm 8% 48% Indore 10% 12% Bhp Vadodara Gwalior Vadodara Jamnagar Ahm 30% 12% Jamnagar 10% Bhp Indore Gwalior 22% Nearest bus stop Ahm Gwalior 56% Indore 64% 60% 66% Vadodara 64% 64% Jamnagar 44% Bhp Indore 0% Gwalior 6% 6% Vadodara 12% 14% Jamnagar 20% 44% 40% 60% 78% 4% 8% 8% 14% 18% 60% Ahm Bhp No. of categories Ahm Quality Bhp Significant improvement Ahm Bhp Comfort Marginal improvement Ahm Safety Bhp Ahm Amenities Indore Gwalior Vadodara 6% 8% 16% 16% 28% 32% 20% Jamnagar Indore 20% Gwalior 6% 20% 22% 16% 12% 12% 6% 20% 18% 14% 10% 20% 0% Vadodara Jamnagar Indore Gwalior Vadodara Jamnagar Indore Gwalior Vadodara Jamnagar Indore 10% 18% 26% 20% 54% 44% 30% 48% 58% 44% 58% 46% 32% 54% 32% 44% 46% 36% 62% 42% 40% Gwalior Vadodara 28% 46% 50% Jamnagar Gujarat showed more significant improvement in service range on offer. The states compared well in other parameters. 80% 70% 60% 30% Bhp 0% Ahm Bhp No. of categories Ahm Quality Bhp Very Good Ahm Bhp Comfort Good Ahm Safety Bhp Ahm Amenities 2% 4% Gwalior Indore 6% 6% 10% 10% 6% 12% 10% 8% 4% Vadodara Jamnagar Indore Gwalior Vadodara Jamnagar Indore Gwalior Vadodara Jamnagar Indore 10% 16% 24% 24% 26% 34% 30% 46% 44% 50% 36% 30% 36% 40% 38% 36% 30% Gwalior Vadodara 18% 20% 44% 38% 38% 40% Jamnagar Indore 0% 6% 32% 42% 52% 52% 62% 52% 60% Gwalior Vadodara 10% 16% 50% Jamnagar Passenger rating of inter-city bus services generally better for Gujarat 90% 80% 70% Bhp Increase in fare has been marginal 68% 80% 60% 52% 56% 62% 70% 50% 12% 20% 26% 26% 12% 30% 22% 26% 32% 40% 6% 10% 0% AMD-JAM AMD-VAD Gujarat Increased significantly BHP-GWL BHP-IDR Madhya Pradesh Marginal increase Has remained the same Fare hike was largely in tune with general price increase 78% 80% 90% 80% 60% 70% 44% 50% 44% 60% 40% 10% 14% 8% 8% 12% 20% 12% 16% 24% 30% 0% AMD-JAM AMD-VAD BHP-GWL Gujarat Fare increase higher than general price BHP-IDR Madhya Pradesh Fare increase similar to general price Fare increase lower than general price Fare increase had no or marginal impact on finances of respondents 62% 70% 50% 38% 40% 34% 38% 50% 46% 50% 60% 20% 12% 12% 20% 18% 20% 30% 10% 0% AMD-JAM AMD-VAD BHP-GWL Gujarat Significant increase in expenses BHP-IDR Madhya Pradesh Marginal increase in expenses No impact at all on expenses 34% 38% Presence of public operator managed to keep private bus fare under check 16% 26% 62% 70% 60% 60% Neutral AMD-JAM Affordable 50% AMD-VAD 38% Expensive 40% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 40% Public bus fare vs. private bus fare 46% Perception in Ahmedabad on presence of public operator 40% 70% 66% 80% 74% Fare varies across private operators 30% 20% 40% 26% 50% 34% 60% 30% 10% 0% 20% AMD-JAM 10% AMD-VAD Managed to keep private bus fare in check 0% AMD-JAM AMD-VAD Yes No Have had no impact on private bus fare Abolishment of MPSRTC resulted in marginal increase in bus fare for most of the respondents in Bhopal 64% 70% 48% 60% 50% 21% 30% 30% 31% 40% 10% 6% 20% 0% Significant increase Marginal increase BHP-GWL BHP-IDR No changes