Based on…..

Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

Outline
• Factors affecting availability of fish for food
 Reef area, population growth, climate change
• Implications for food security
 Relative importance of population growth and climate change
• Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies

Goal to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year
Vanuatu
• 20 kg of fish per person per year

Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses
How Much is available ?
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay

Smol Problem!
 Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of
3 tonnes per km 2 per year

Coral reef area in Solomon Islands
Country
Fiji
New Caledonia
PNG
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu
Land area
(km2)
18,272
19,100
462,243
27,556
11,880
Reef area
(km2)
10,000*
35,925
22,200*
8,535
1,244

Annual coastal fish production (mt)
3 tonnes x
Reef area
(km 2 )
1,244
Reef fish
(tonnes)
= 3,732
• Population in 2010 was 252,000
~ 15 kg of fish per person per year

UHH OHH!
• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year
Vanuatu
• 20 kg of fish per person per year
(15 from reefs 5 from tuna)

Factors affecting availability of fish
• Population growth
Year
2010
2035
2050
2100
Population
252,000
400,000
483,000
695,000
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme

Effects of climate change
Today on production
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)

YUMI KAT BIGFALA GAP
Current/Future Availability 35kg per person

a)
Poorly-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish habitat b)
Time
Well-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available from stocks
Fish available from coastal stocks
Time
Gap in supply of fish to be filled

a)
Poorly-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish habitat b)
Time
Well-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available from stocks
Fish available from coastal stocks
Time
Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Adaptations
• Must minimise and then fill the gap a)
Poorly-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish habitat b)
Time
Well-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available from stocks
Fish available from coastal stocks
Time
Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Adaptation decision framework
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss Long-term Gain
Lose-Lose Lose-Win
X
X

Win-Lose
X
Win-Win
 x

X
After Grafton (2010)

Potential Adaptations to MINIMIZE the Gap

L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Manage and restore vegetation cover in catchments
Improves resilience of coral reef, mangrove and seagrass habitats

L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Sustain production of fish stocks
Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure replenishment and build resilience of key species

Potential Adaptations to FILL the Gap

How best to fill the gap to provide 35kg/person?
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna & bycatch

L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Store and distribute tuna and bycatch from industrial fleets to urban areas

L-L L-W
W-L W-W
Win-win adaptations
Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore Fish
Aggregating Devices (FADs)

Subsurface
FAD

L-L L-W
Win-win adaptations
W-L W-W Improve post-harvest methods
Photo: Jocelyn Carlin

L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Develop pond aquaculture in rural and peri-urban areas
Photo: Ben Ponia

L-L L-W
Win-win adaptations
W-L W-W
?
Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species
Photo: Nathalie Behring

L-L L-W
Win-win adaptations
W-L W-W
?
Use Available Climate Services from Meteo Dept meteo.gov.vu

L-L L-W
W-L W-W
Other adaptations
Provide for landward migration of coastal fish habitats

L-L L-W
W-L W-W
Other adaptations
Reduce and diversify catches of demersal fish
Greater focus on herbivorous fish

L-L L-W
W-L W-W
Other adaptations
Allow for expansion of freshwater fish habitats

Suggested supporting policies
• Strengthen governance of agriculture, forestry and mining practices to prevent soil loss and pollution, to safeguard fish habitats and water quality
• Minimise barriers to migration of coastal and freshwater habitats
• Promote mangrove replanting programmes
• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal and freshwater stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment

Suggested supporting policies
• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal and freshwater stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment
- gear restrictions
- spatial closures
- size limits
- closed seasons

Suggested supporting policies
• Increase access to tuna for the food security
• Capitalise on opportunities for freshwater pond aquaculture

Key investments
 Surveys of best sites for installing inshore FADs
 Programmes to install and maintain FADs
 Identify prime locations for peri-urban and rural pond aquaculture
 Hatcheries and networks to deliver juveniles
 Evaluate merits of micro-credit schemes to develop fisheries around FADs; expand pond aquaculture; and scale-up post-harvest processing

www.nab.vu
500+ terrestrial adaptation strategies for various climate impacts

Conclusions
• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities
• Much ADAPTATION can be done cheaply now
• Supporting policies and investments are needed
• Integrate adaptations and policies and investments into national strategies and action plans for climate change, including communitybased actions supported by partners