Implications, adaptations & policies
for food security and livelihoods
Presented by
Johann Bell
Authors
This presentation is based on Chapters 12 and 13 in the
book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and
Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE
Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.
Outline
• Factors affecting availability of fish for food

Reef area, population growth, climate change
• Implications for food security

Relative importance of population growth and
climate change
• Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies
Plans to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per
person per year
• Maintain traditional fish
consumption where it is
>35 kg
Fiji
• 42 kg of fish per person
per year
Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs,
mangroves and sea grasses
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay
The problem!

Sustainable catches from most reefs
are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of 3
tonnes per km2 per year
Coral reef area in Fiji
Country
Fiji
New Caledonia
Land area
(km2)
18,272
Reef area
(km2)
10,000*
19,100
35,925
462,243
22,200*
Solomon Islands
27,556
8,535
Vanuatu
11,880
1,244
PNG
Annual coastal fish production (mt)
Reef area (km2)
Reef fish
Fw fish
Total
10,000
30,000
~4000
~34,000
• Population in 2010 was 848,000
~ 40 kg of fish per person per year
Factors affecting availability of fish
• Population growth
Year
Population
2010
848,000
2035
978,000
2050
1,060,000
2100
1, 330,000
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme
Effects of population growth on
availability of fish per person
Fiji
Availability of reef fish per person (kg)
50
40
35 kg
3
9
30
20
35
32
26
10
0
2035
2050
Year
2100
Effects of climate change
Today
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%)
2100 (-20 to -50%)
Additional effects of climate change
Fiji
Availability of reef fish per capita (kg)
50
40
35 kg
3
7
30
20
9
15
35
34
32
28
10
26
20
0
2035
2050
2100
Year
Effects of population growth
Additional effects of climate change
How best to fill the gap?
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Coastal fisheries
Freshwater fisheries
Pond aquaculture
Tuna
Adaptations and policies
• Minimise the gap to be filled!
Poorly-managed fisheries
Quantity of fish/habitat
a)
Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat
Fish
Fish available
available from
from
coastal
stocks
stocks
Gap in supply of
fish to be filled
Time
Well-managed fisheries
Quantity of fish/habitat
b)
Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available from
stocks
Fish available from
coastal stocks
Time
Adaptation decision framework
Addresses climate change
Near-term Loss
Near-term Gain
Addresses present drivers
Long-term Loss
Lose-Lose
Long-term Gain
Lose-Win
X
X
Win-Lose

Win-Win
X


x
X
After Grafton (2010)
L-L
W-L
L-W
Win-win adaptations
W-W
Improves resilience of
coral reef, mangrove
and seagrass habitats
Manage and restore vegetation
cover in catchments
L-L
W-L
L-W
Win-win adaptations
W-W
Maintaining spawning
adults will help ensure
replenishment and build
resilience of key species
Sustain production of fish
stocks
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Increase access to tuna with
anchored inshore Fish
Aggregating Devices (FADs)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Improve post-harvest methods
Photo: Jocelyn Carlin
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Win-win adaptations
Develop pond aquaculture in
rural and peri-urban areas
Photo: Ben Ponia
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Win-win adaptations
?
Develop coastal fisheries for
small pelagic species
Photo: Nathalie Behring
Other adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Provide for landward migration
of coastal fish habitats
Other adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Reduce and diversify catches
of demersal fish
Greater focus on herbivorous fish
Other adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Allow for expansion of freshwater
fish habitats
Other adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Modify locations and
infrastructure for aquaculture
Suggested supporting policies
• Strengthen governance of agriculture, forestry and
mining practices to prevent soil loss and pollution,
to safeguard fish habitats and water quality
• Minimise barriers to migration of coastal and
freshwater habitats
• Promote mangrove replanting programmes
• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal
and freshwater stocks to maintain their potential
for replenishment
Suggested supporting policies
• Restrict export of demersal fish to retain them for
national food security
• Increase access to tuna for the food security by
reducing national allocations to industrial fleets
• Capitalise on opportunities for freshwater pond
aquaculture
• Limit farming of Nile tilapia to catchments where
tilapia species are already established, or there is a
shortage of fish
Key investments
 Surveys of best sites for installing inshore FADs
 Programmes to install and maintain FADs
 Identify prime locations for peri-urban and rural
pond aquaculture
 Hatcheries and networks to deliver juveniles
Evaluate merits of micro-credit schemes to develop
fisheries around FADs; expand pond aquaculture;
and scale-up post-harvest processing
Conclusions
• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce
risks and capitalise on opportunities
• Supporting policies and investments are needed
• Integrate adaptations and policies and
investments into national strategies and action
plans for climate change, including communitybased actions supported by partners