Implications for food security and
livelihoods
Based on…..
Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to
atmospheric and oceanic
conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce
threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Outline
• Factors affecting availability of fish for food
•
Reef area, population growth, climate change
• Implications for food security
•
Relative importance of population growth and
climate change
Plans to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per
person per year
• Maintain traditional fish
consumption where it is
>35 kg
Samoa
• >60 kg of fish per person
per year
Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs,
mangroves and sea grasses
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay
The problem!
•
Sustainable catches from most reefs
are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of
3 tonnes per km2 per year
Reef around Samoa
Coral reef area in Samoa
Depth (m)
Reef area
(km2)
Reef fish
Estimated
production (t)
catch
40
465
~1400
n/a
100
2000*
6000
6075**
*Includes much rough ground with no living coral
** Includes reef fish and invertebrates, not nearshore pelagic fish
Factors affecting availability of fish
• Population growth
Year
Population
2010
183,000
2035
202,000
2050
210,000
2100
240,000
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme
Availability of reef fish per person (kg)
Effects of population growth on
availability of fish per person
50
Samoa
40
30
20
5
30
35 kg
6
3
10
29
25
10
0
2035
2050
Year
2100
Effects of climate change
Today
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%)
2100 (-20 to -50%)
Additional effects of climate change
Availability of reef fish per capita (kg)
50
Samoa
40
30
20
55
30
35 kg
6
29
66
29
10
10
10
25
25
25
25
10
13
22
22
20
0
2035
2050
2100
Year
Effects of population growth
Additional effects of climate change
How best to fill the gap?
Tuna
Tuna
Tuna
Tuna
0
2
4
6
8
10
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Coastal fisheries
Pond aquaculture
Tuna
12
14
Implications for livelihoods