Implications for food security
Presented by
Johann Bell
Authors
This presentation is based on Chapter 12 ‘Implications of
climate change for contributions by fisheries and
aquaculture to Pacific Island economies and communities’
in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and
Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE
Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.
The authors of Chapter 12 are: Johann D Bell, Chris Reid,
Michael J Batty, Edward H Allison, Patrick Lehodey, Len
Rodwell, Timothy D Pickering, Robert Gillett, Johanna E
Johnson, Alistair J Hobday and Andreas Demmke
Outline
• Importance of coastal fisheries for food security
• Factors affecting availability of fish for food

Differences in reef area among countries and territories

Population growth!
• Projected changes in coastal fisheries
• Implications for food security

Relative importance of population growth and
climate change
How much fish do we eat?
• Fish consumption in rural areas (kg/person/year)
%
%
43
77
%
%
62
%
115
%
11
11150
%
%98
55
75
21
50-94 %
Subsistence
fishing
47-91 %
>150
10
33
Animal
protein
61
50
90
25
Examples only
Source: Bell et al. (2009), Gillett (2009)
Range x-y%
Fish needed for good nutrition
Basic protein requirement is 0.7 g/kg
body weight/day (WHO)
• Ideal: 50% of protein
derived from fish
• = 35 kg/person/year
Plans to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per
person per year
• Maintain traditional fish
consumption where it is
>35 kg
Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs,
mangroves and sea grasses
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay
The problem!

Sustainable catches from most reefs
are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of 3
tonnes per km2 per year
Factors affecting availability of fish
• Coral reef area – three groups of PICTs
Group 1
Large area of reef per
person
Group 2
Group 2
Large area of reef per
person but remote
Group 3
Group 3
Small area of reef per
person
Factors affecting availability of fish
Group 1
Group
1
Group 2
2
Group 3
3
PICT
Average reef
area per person
2010 (m2)
Cook Islands, Marshall Islands,
New Caledonia, Palau, Pitcairn
Islands and Tokelau
230,000
FSM, French Polynesia, Kiribati,
Niue, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis
and Futuna
90,000
American Samoa, Fiji, Guam,
Nauru, CNMI, PNG, Samoa,
Solomon Islands and Vanuatu
6500
Factors affecting availability of fish
• Population growth
Year
Population (million)
2012
10
2035
15
2050
18
2100
27?
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme
Effects of population growth on
availability of fish per person
Fiji
Solomon Islands
50
40
35 kg
3
9
30
20
35
32
26
10
0
2035
2050
Year
2100
Availability of reef fish per person (kg)
Availability of reef fish per person (kg)
50
40
35 kg
30
7
13
21
20
28
22
10
14
0
2035
2050
Year
2100
Effects of climate change
Today
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%)
2100 (-20 to -50%)
Effects of climate change
Resource
Demersal fisheries
(50-60%)
Nearshore pelagics
(~30%)
West
2035
2050
Negligible
East
2100
2035
Negligible
Negligible
2050
2100
Group 1
Effects of population growth AND climate change
 No implications!
PICT
Cook Islands
Marshall Islands
New Caledonia
Palau
Tokelau
Fish available per person per year (kg)*
2035
2050
2100
115
101
92
644
556
484
326
268
215
320
283
250
495
451
388
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario
Group 2
• Effects of population growth AND climate change

Some implications
PICT
FSM
French Polynesia
Kiribati
Niue
Tonga
Tuvalu
Wallis & Futuna
Fish available per person per year (kg)*
2035
418
131
86
125
145
711
197
2050
352
109
65
114
116
570
171
2100
307
85
42
104
81
362
145
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario
Group 3
• Severe implications due to population growth alone!
PICT
Fish available per person per year (kg)
2035
2050
2100
American Samoa
13
11
8
Fiji
35
32
26
Guam
3
3
2
Nauru
1
1
1
PNG
8
6
4
CNMI
10
9
9
Samoa
30
29
25
Solomon Islands
28
23
14
Vanuatu
10
8
6
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario
Additional effects of climate change
Fiji
Solomon Islands
50
40
35 kg
3
7
30
20
9
15
35
34
32
28
10
26
20
0
2035
2050
2100
Year
Effects of population growth
Availability of reef fish per capita (kg)
Availability of reef fish per capita (kg)
50
40
35 kg
30
7
7
13
16
21
24
20
28
28
22
10
19
14
11
0
2035
2050
2100
Year
Additional effects of climate change
Group 3
• Gap to be filled
PICT
American Samoa
Fiji
Guam
PNG
Nauru
CNMI
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu
Gap in fish needed per person per year (kg)
2035
2050
2100
Popn
CC
Popn
CC
Popn
CC
22
23
24
26
27
29
0
1
3
7
9
15
32
32
32
33
33
33
27
27
29
29
31
32
34
34
34
34
34
34
25
25
26
27
26
29
5
6
6
11
10
16
7
7
13
16
21
24
26
26
28
29
31
32
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario
Group 3 - How best to fill the gap?
Solomon Islands
2035 (33,947 t)
64%
27%
2050 (41,345 t)
46%
43%
2100 (68,910 t)
24%
0
10
11%
20
61%
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fishfood
needed
(tonnes
x 1000)(x1000)
Fish needed for
security
tonnes
Coastal fisheries
Freshwater fisheries
Pond aquaculture
Tuna (and bycatch)
Fiji
2035 (34,216 t)
79%
12%
6%
70%
2050 (37,125 t)
12% 6%
20%
59%
43%
10%
10
11%
20
36%
30
43%
40
50
0
13%
13%
32%
40%
44%
44%
6
8
10
American Samoa
Papua New Guinea
67%
44%
13%
2050 (3439 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
11%
11%
25%
29%
55%
55%
74%
55%
11%
2100 (4741 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
7% 9%
7% 9%
50
50
4
2035 (3056 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
0
0
45%
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Papua New Guinea
2035 (140,690 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
16%
16%
35%
11%
2
Fish needed
x 1000)
Papua(tonnes
New Guinea
29%
29%
6%
2100 (8405 t)
2100 (46,608 t)
40%
40%
27%
2050 (7341 t)
63%
0
Samoa
2035 (7070 t)
16%
16%
68%
68%
100
100
150
150
200
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
250
250
300
300
0
0
83%
7% 9%
1
50
68%
2
100
3
150
4
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
250
5
300
Vanuatu
CNMI
2035 (2667 t)
2035 (14,844 t)
22%
75%
74%
24%
2050 (18,534 t)
2050 (2805 t)
77%
78%
15% 6
20%
2100 (31,289 t)
8%
78%
80%
5
79%
2100 (3046 t)
11%
0
75%
10
15
20
16%
25
30
35
83%
0
0.5
1
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
5%
40%
95%
55%
11%
13%
11%
0.8
300
55%
2100 (730 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
3%
96%
7% 9%
2
50
0.7
250
44%
97%
29%
2100 (10,355 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
0
0
3.5
2050 (570 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
4%
16%
3
96%
40%
2050 (9374 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
29%
2.5
Nauru
Papua New Guinea
2035 (504 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
94%
44%
13%
2
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Guam
Papua New Guinea
2035 (8764 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
1.5
98%
68%
4
6
8
100
150
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
16%
10
250
12
300
0
7% 9%
0.1
0
0.2
50
68%
0.3
100
0.4
150
0.5
0.6
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Conclusions
• PICTs in Groups 1 and 2 have sufficient
coral reef per person to provide fish for
food security well into the future
• Shortages of fish may occur near major
towns due to distribution problems
Conclusions
• Population growth in PICTs in Group 3
will have a much stronger effect on
availability of fish than climate change
• Shortages of reef (demersal) fish will
occur in all these PICTs
• Most of the gap will need to be filled
by tuna
Conclusions
• Practical adaptations and policies are needed
to minimise and fill the gap
Poorly-managed fisheries
Quantity of fish/habitat
a)
Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat
Fish
Fish available
available from
from
coastal
stocks
stocks
Gap in supply of
fish to be filled
Time
Well-managed fisheries
Quantity of fish/habitat
b)
Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available from
stocks
Fish available from
coastal stocks
Time