Global Forecast System (GFS) Model

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Global Forecast System (GFS) Model

• Previous called the Aviation (AVN) and Medium

Range Forecast (MRF) models.

• Spectral global model and 64 levels

• Relatively primitive microphysics.

• Sophisticated surface physics and radiation

• Run four times a day to 384 hr (16 days!).

• Major increase in skill during past decade derived from using direct satellite radiance in the 3DVAR analysis scheme .

• T382 (~35 km) over the first 180 hours (7.5 days) of the model forecast and T190 (70 km) for 180 through

384 hours--major implications for resolution change!

GFS

• Vertical coordinates are hybrid sigma/pressure… sigma at low levels to pressure aloft.

Vertical coordinate comparison across North America

GFS Data Assimilation

• Has a later data cut-off time than the mesoscale models…and thus can get a higher percentage of data.

• Uses much more satellite assets..thus improve global analysis and forecasts.

• Major gains in southern hemisphere

• Data assimilation based on 3DVAR (they call it GSI)

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

1960 1970

CDAS/Reanl vs GFS

NH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/Reanl

SH CDAS/Reanl

1980

YEAR

1990 2000

Skill Improvements (ECMWF)

Useful skill until:

1980 - day 5

2000 - day 7

2003 - day 8

GFS

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