PARTIAL BUDGET ANALYSIS Partial budget analysis example of changing product mix from specialty green beans to salad greens. Positive Effects Increases in revenue (1) Sales of salad greens $150.00 Negative Effects Decreases in revenue (3) Sales of specialty green beans Decreases in cost (2) 18.25 hrs of labor @ $10 per hr Input & packaging costs Total decrease in costs $182.50 26.66 $209.16 Increases in cost (4) 2.8 hrs of labor @ $10 per hr Input and packaging costs Total increase in costs Total positive effects (5) $359.16 Total negative effects (6) Net change (7) -$37.37 $360.00 28.00 8.53 36.53 $396.53 Substituting salad greens for specialty green beans reduces income by $210 per bed, from $360 from specialty green bean sales to $150 for salad green sales. Labor requirements and input and packaging costs, however, would be lowered by $172.62 per bed, primarily due to the lower labor requirements for salad greens compared to specialty green beans. Total negative effects outweigh total positive effects by $37.37 per bed, indicating the change from specialty green beans to salad greens would reduce farm profit. Non-economic considerations such as labor (note that specialty green beans require 15.45 more hours per bed), as well as other considerations, will have to be taken into account prior to discarding the proposed change. Exercise #1 Marketing outlet evaluation You sell most of your produce at a regional urban farmers’ market. You have often wondered what marketing outlet should be used to sell your remaining production, a smaller rural farmers’ market (your current marketing strategy) or institutional market? You currently sell into the rural farmers’ market. The rural farmers’ market in your area occurs once per week, requires one person for 6 hrs. ($60 at $10 per hour), supplies expense of $20 per week, and transportation cost of $20 per week. Your alternative marketing outlet would be selling to a local institutional buyer. You determine the mileage to be the same at $20 per week, labor is 4 hrs. per week ($40 at $10 per hour), and supplies are $10 per week. Assume your farms sales for the farmer’s market is $4,500 for the season ($225 per day). It is estimated sales revenue would be 20 percent lower for the institutional market than for the farmers’ market due to lower sales prices. Develop a partial budget to evaluate the two marketing outlets. Partial budget analysis of changing marketing outlets. Positive Effects Negative Effects Increases in income (1) Decreases in income (3) Institutional market sales $3,600 Farmers’ market sales $4,500 Decreases in costs (2) Farmers market labor costs Farmers market supply costs Total decrease in costs $1,200 400 $1,600 Increases in costs (4) Institutional market labor costs Institutional market supply costs Total increase in costs $800 200 $1,000 Total positive effects (5) $5,200 Total negative effects (6) $5,500 Net change (7) -$300 Ans: (1) Increase in income – institutional sales of $3,600 (2) Decrease in costs - eliminating the farmers’ market would reduce marketing costs $1,600, $1,200 in labor (6 hrs x $10 per hour x 20 weeks) and $400 in supplies ($20 per week for 20 weeks). (3) Decrease in income – farmers’ market sales of $4,500 (4) Increase in costs - implementing the institutional market would incur costs of $1,000, labor costs of $800 (4 hrs x $10 per hour x 20 weeks) and supply costs of $200 ($10 per week for 20 weeks). NOTE that transportation costs were ignored because they were the same for both markets at $20 per week. (5) – (7) the negative effects (costs) of $5,500 overcome the reduction in positive effects (revenue) of $5,200 indicating a change should not be made based solely on economic reasons. Depending on how important the non-economic and other factors are in comparing these two marketing outlets, it may still make sense to sell into the institutional market. Exercise #2 – Machinery investment evaluation You currently harvest your potatoes by hand and it takes about 100 hours at $10 per hour per acre. You estimate that a one-row potato harvester could harvest one acre in about 2 hours. The cost of a new harvester is $2,000 and has an estimated life of 7 years. The depreciation cost for this equipment is the sales price minus the salvage value (or the price you could sell the piece of equipment for at the end of the 7-year period) divided by the useful life of the equipment. For this example, you have a $2,000 purchase price minus zero salvage value divided by the 7-year life equals an annual depreciation cost of $286 per year. NOTE that the salvage value of zero assumes your potato harvester is not worth anything at the end of the seven years. This is probably not what would actually happen if you chose to sell your harvester, but it is a conservative approach to making this decision. In addition to depreciation costs, you have additional fixed and variable costs associated with your potato harvester. The fixed costs (those that don’t vary by usage) would include taxes, housing, and insurance. It is estimated the fixed costs are 1% of the purchase price, or $20 per year. The variable costs (those that increase or decrease with usage) would be repairs and maintenance. The variable costs are estimated at 2% of the purchase price, or $40 per year. Your actual fixed and variable costs can differ substantially from these estimates from year-toyear. Keeping good records on repairs and maintenance, as well as fixed costs such as insurance and building (housing) costs will allow you to be more accurate when estimating these costs. Develop a partial budget to evaluate the purchase of the potato harvester. Partial budget analysis of new 1-row potato harvester ($2,000, 7-yr life) purchase. Positive Effects Negative Effects Increases in income (1) Decreases in income (3) Decreases in costs (2) Labor costs (100 hours) $1,000 Total decrease in costs Total positive effects (5) Net change (7) $1,000 Increases in costs (4) Labor (2 hour) Depreciation cost Taxes, housing, insurance (1%) Repairs and maintenance (2%) Total increase in costs $20 $286 20 40 $366 $1,000 Total negative effects (6) $366 $634 Ans.: (1) and (3) do not need to be filled in because no change in income is assumed. (2) Decrease in costs – hand harvesting potatoes takes 100 hours @ $10 per hour (4) Increase in costs – machinery harvest labor takes about 2 hours @ $10 per hour. Total depreciation is $286 whereas taxes, etc. is $20 and repairs and maintenance is $40 for a total increase in costs of $366. (5) – (7) The net change would be a positive $634 indicating you would increase your farm profitability by replacing hand labor for potatoes with a potato harvester. Exercise #3 Alternative livestock production system evaluation You sell most of your livestock at a local sales barn as conventional. You have often wondered if you could make more money by producing and marketing your livestock as “natural”. You assume the cost of the feeder cattle, health products, and some of the other minor costs to be the same. You ignore these costs for partial budgeting purposes. Your current conventional diet is $400 per finished cattle and the natural diet is estimated at $500. Current housing cost is $80 per head and is estimated at $85 for the natural finished animal. You budget your conventional cattle revenue per head at $1,080 (1200 lbs. at $.90/lb.) whereas you estimate natural finished cattle to bring in $1,150 (1150 lbs. $1.00/lb.). Develop a partial budget to evaluate whether to change your cattle production practices. Partial budget analysis of changing cattle production practices. Positive Effects Negative Effects Increases in income (1) Decreases in income (3) Natural market sales $1,150 Conventional market sales Decreases in costs (2) Conventional feed Conventional housing Total decrease in costs Total positive effects (5) Net change (7) Ans: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) $1,080 $400 80 $480 Increases in costs (4) Natural feed Natural housing Total increase in costs $500 85 $585 $1,630 Total negative effects (6) $1,665 -$35 Increase in income – natural market sales is $1,150 (1,150 lbs. @ $1.00 per lb.) Decrease in costs – no longer feeding conventional feed housing for fewer days on feed. Decrease in income – conventional market sales is $1,080 (1200 lbs. @ $.90 per lb.) Increase in costs – natural feed is now $500 per head and housing is $85. – (7) the positive effects of $1,630 or overcome by the negative effects of $1,665 resulting in a small negative change of $-35 per head. Depending on how important the non-economic and other factors are in comparing these two production systems, the economic analysis is virtually a toss-up.