Potential economic effects of a
carbon fee-and-dividend on rural
Alaska households
Steve Colt
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
sgcolt@uaa.Alaska.edu
Tufts – Warming Arctic IV April 2015
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context / Importance
Study area
Model
Residential energy use
Nonresidential local energy use
Results & Conclusions
2
Context / Importance
3
4
Study Area:
Bethel CA, Northwest Arctic Borough, Wade Hampton CA
5
6
7
American Community Survey – self-reported
8
Fee-and-Dividend Specifics
• Fee = $15 / metric ton CO2
• Dividend = $300 per person
• (Roughly equal to 300 million people and 6
billion tons of CO2)
9
What Matters for Fee-and-Dividend
Price of fuel
Quantity of fuel
10
average gallons per person per yr in
all PCE communities (67,000 people)
Total 1,272
gallons per
person per
year:
746 residential
(59%)
526 nonres
(41%)
Average is not good enough…
12
Average is not good enough…
13
Need to take deep dive into details
…such as they are 14
Kaktovik buildings
Photo courtesy L Freitag 15
Arctic transportation: Let us count
the ways!
16
Model
• Residential electricity, heating, local
transport
= gallons x tax rate
• Nonresidential local energy use
= gallons x rate x local incidence
• Embodied energy
– Regional transport = pax-miles x gal/pax-mile
– Freight transportation = ton-miles x gal/ton-mile
– Commodities = dollars or tons x gal/ton
17
Model
• Two types of households:
– Small = 1-2 persons
– Large = 3+ persons
• Three types of house
– Single-family
– Multi-family
– Mobile home
• Two household income groups
– Low (<$50k)
– High (>$50k)
18
Study area population
19
Residential electricity
• Large households use ~4,000 kWh/yr more
than small; but still less than urban average
20
Control totals
Total population
Total households
Occupied housing units
Single family
Multi family
Mobile Home
Everything
else…
Tax per gallon
6,199
5,509.0
593.8
96.2
kWh
kWh/gal
33,783,737
23,329,251
10,789,346
14,180,826
737,740
82,820,899
residential
commercial
community facilities
government facilities
Unbilled
Total kWh sold
commercial
community facilities
government facilities
Total nonresidential heating fuel
5,509.0
593.8
96.2
2
1,904
952
Allocation matrix by trial and error
0.75
0.82
0.23
0.16
0.01
0.02
CO2 tons/gal tax $/ton
tax $/gal
0.0102
15
0.153
Electricity
CZ8 Aris Heating fuel
121
Single family
105
Multifamily
185
Mobile Home
Total residential heating fuel
1
1,093
1,093
24,831
6,199
3
2,343
781
4
3,328
832
5
6,240
1,248
6
2,610
435
7
7,313
858
0.85
0.13
0.02
0.90
0.10
0.00
0.96
0.00
0.04
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
kWh/gal
13
Diesel gal
gal per personCO2 tons/gal tax $/ton
13
2,598,749
105
0.0102
13
1,794,558
72
0.0102
13
829,950
33
0.0102
13
1,090,833
44
0.0102
13
56,749
2
0.0102
13
6,370,838
257
0.0102
E6Btu per House
E6Btu per gal Houses
Heatfuel gal gal per person
127
0.134
5,509
5,221,216
112
0.134
594
496,344
201
0.134
96
144,240
5,861,800
236
gal/kWh
kWh
Heatfuel gal
0.15 23,329,251
3,499,388
141
0.12 10,789,346
1,294,721
52
0.10 14,180,826
1,418,083
57
6,212,192
250
Subtotal electricity and heat
Personal transportation
Estimated gal per person from AVEM
18,444,830
743
8,144,568
328
15
15
15
15
15
15
Total_tax
local_incidence
Local_tax Local_tax_per_person
397,609
1.00
397,609
16
274,567
0.50
137,284
6
126,982
1.00
126,982
5
166,897
0.00
8,683
1.00
8,683
0
974,738
27
gal per house
948
836
1,500
0.0102
15
896,855
1.00
896,855
0.0102
0.0102
0.0102
0.0102
535,406
198,092
216,967
950,465
0.50
1.00
0.00
267,703
198,092
-
15
15
15
15
d_rural
county_n
climate_z
umeric
county_name one
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
1
50 Bethel Census Area
8
Sum of
Populati
HDD
on
13213 15,192
13105
8,808
13356 12,288
13106
7,296
12990 11,040
13356
2,376
13552
2,928
11548
6,888
12107
5,808
13106 13,008
12990 16,032
11306
9,864
13106 17,304
12990
9,072
13339
600
13382
6,456
13575
5,208
82
0.0102
15
1,246,119
1.00 1,246,119
50
132
OK, recast this as a simulation
Two types of households: small (1-2), and large (3+)
Let's try 2 columns
30,000
Small HH
Large HH
Sum of Sum of Sum of
Population
Population
2,997
21,834
CommercHouseholds
Com.
Govt.
Sum of
Sum of 2,045
Households
4,154
Households fractions
0.330
0.670
ial
Facil.
Facil.
Unbilled Total
Sum of
Average household size
1.5
5.3
Houses
by
type
Custome Custome Custome Custome Custome Residenti
Single family
1,605
3,904
rs
rs family
rs
rs
rs
To
Multi
409al sold 185
Mobile Home
31
66
515 Total
303
528
86
5,091
2,045########
4,154
454 Total Res kWh
216
95
4
2,849
500,823
5,728,991
28,054,745
kWh
2,801########
6,754
631 Res kWh per household
47
168
24per HH 5,089
Total Res diesel gal for kWh
440,692
2,158,057
144 Total Res heating
120 fuel gallons123
69
2,088
1,909,293 559,237
3,952,515
Income
134 Allocation matrix
173 HH size to HH429
407
3,297 848,921
income class
size
class
150
120
72
12
1,274
254,385
Small
Large
174
152
48income class Low1
1,212
0.5000 228,940
0.4925
High
0.5000
0.5075
237
227
197
3,018 659,994
Small
Large
211 Low income230
118avg income= - 26,292 2,491
739,634
households
1,023
2,046
households
1,023########
2,108
376 High income243
217avg income= - 102,625 3,665
647 Total income119
189
1,152
6,020
########
131,817,971 270,139,468
Total income fractions
0.328
0.672
369 Average
127
145
142
3,201
########
income
64,459
65,031
155
278
120
396
5,130 ########
Nonres diesel for kWh
588,507 880,889
1,206,050
408 commercial 48
72total income 72
2,592
community facilities
num HH
273,794
556,156
66government120
24total income 638
facilities
357,728 35,093
733,105
14,926
41,823
74Unbilled 145
48prorated
2,347
623,693
Nonres
heat fuel gal 315
414
214
3,097 603,081
commercial
community facilities
government facilities
11
8
19
Grand total Locally-purchased local energy
Sum of
Residenti
al
Custome
rs
3,659
2,080
4,219
1,632
2,154
920
837
2,357
1,932
2,829
3,913
2,418
4,181
1,992
428
2,080
2,154
36
total income
num HH
total income
1,147,590
427,118
465,046
2,351,798
867,603
953,036
25,000
Total
24,831
6,199
Sum of
Commerc 4.0
ial Sold
5,509
To
594
96
362,346 6,199
999,26533,783,737
######## 5,450
2,598,749
360,9735,861,808
254,489
218,903
178,551
261,883
calc
211,627Total 3,068
3,131
553,792
729,115
401,957,439
583,729
437,410
768,5331,794,558
829,950
38,1671,090,833
136,635 56,749
350,523
3,499,388
1,294,721
1,418,083
Avg HH size
Small = 1.5
Large = 5.3
20,000
15,000
residential kWh per HH
8,000
7,000
10,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
5,000
-
Population
Households
1,000
-
Small HH
Large HH
Total data
3,068
3,131
1,794,558
829,950
1,090,833
56,749
3,499,388
1,294,721
1,418,083
21
average gallons per person per yr in
study area (24,381 people)
Total 1,072
gallons per
person per year:
670 residential
(62%)
402 nonres
(38%)
Small HH 2,773
gal/person
Large HH 837
gal/person
23
Upshot: Fee per person
Total Fee
Diesel gallons used for:
Residential electricity
Residential heating
commercial electricity
community facilities electricity
government facilities electricity
unbilled electricity
commercial heating
community facilities heating
government facilities heating
Personal transportation
Total
Small
67,426
292,122
90,042
41,890
54,732
2,284
175,581
65,349
71,152
411,085
Local
Large
Incidence
330,183
1.00
604,735
1.00
184,526
0.50
85,092
1.00
112,165
0.00
6,399
1.00
359,825
0.50
132,743
1.00
145,815
0.00
835,034
1.00
Locally-paid fee per person
Small
22
97
15
14
0
1
29
22
0
137
Large
15
28
4
4
0
0
8
6
0
38
Overall
16
36
6
5
0
0
11
8
0
50
338
104
132
large
HH
all
HH
small
HH
Compare this to $300 dividend
24
Thank You