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Europe ; Kazakhstan Opposition Promises Change:
Thursday, March 31, 2005
[Europe News] KORDAI, Kazakhstan - A dozen Kyrgyz men and women stood at a border
post,
badgering
guards
about
why
they
could
no
longer
enter
Kazakhstan.
"The checkpoint is fully closed," a Kazakh guard said repeatedly. Asked why, an officer
replied:
"I
cannot
disclose
a
state
secret."
As Kyrgyzstan shakes with revolutionary fever, officials in oil-rich Kazakhstan are hoping to
quarantine their country from political infection. But the opposition in this former Soviet
republic says it's time for change and President Nursultan Nazarbayev must accept it.
"If authorities continue to use the same language of intimidation, pressure and blackmail ...
the people and the opposition will be cornered and will have no other choice but to take
more decisive steps," opposition leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbai told The Associated Press on
Wednesday.
The overthrow of President Askar Akayev in Kyrgyzstan is emerging as a powerful catalyst for the
Kazakh opposition, which already was inspired by popular uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine. With an
upcoming presidential vote, opposition leaders say preparations are afoot for a final push to unseat
Nazarbayev.
Opposition leaders have a litany of grievances against the autocratic president, who has been in power
for 16 years and is suspected of being behind constitutional changes that allowed him to remain at the
helm.
He is accused of unfairly distributing revenues from the country's vast energy reserves, which are being
exploited by multinational oil and gas corporations from the United States and Europe. Nazarbayev is
also blamed for high-level corruption and allowing relatives to control the country's most lucrative
economic
sectors.
In addition, Nazarbayev is accused of planning a dynastic leadership handover: His daughter, who
controls the most powerful media holding company in Kazakhstan, is now a member of parliament.
A top political aide to the president, Ermukhamet Ertysbayev, called speculation that events in
Kyrgyzstan
might
herald
an
end
to
Nazarbayev's
rule
"nonsense."
What happened in Kyrgyzstan was "a mass spontaneous riot" caused by Akayev's weakness, he told
AP.
In
Kazakhstan,
the
opposition
"will
have
to
wait
for
another
10
years,"
he
said.
Ertysbayev said Nazarbayev was popular enough to legitimately win another term in elections, citing
strong economic growth as a reason. The economy has seen average annual growth of 10 percent in
recent years, due to Western investment in the energy sector and market reforms, such as privatization
of
some
industries.
Kazakhstan's busy commercial capital, Almaty, is packed with gleaming shopping malls and expensive
restaurants. And construction is booming in the new political capital, Astana.
Ertysbayev said that "Kazakhstan is a very strong state" and warned that if mass protests erupt, "a
strong
state
will
quell
a
mob
...
with
clubs
and
tear
gas."
But Petr Svoik, a leader of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, an opposition party recently
disbanded by authorities, said the economic progress mainly benefits the elite in the cities.
"The
rest
of
the
country
is
the
same
(as)
impoverished
Kyrgyzstan,"
he
said.
The United Nations estimates 25 percent of Kazakhstan's 15 million people lived in poverty in 2002, the
latest year for which figures are availabe.
Home > News > Europe
Kazakhstan Opposition Promises Change
Thursday, March 31, 2005
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[Europe News] The opposition has made recent gains: Businesses are helping fund efforts to build
parties, and former government ministers who helped with privatization reforms are now included in
the
top
ranks
of
the
opposition.
The parties have a vision: A draft constitution and draft media bill have been drawn up, along with a
package of economic reforms. And the opposition is united behind a single presidential candidate —
Tuyakbai.
Authorities in Kazakhstan reacted swiftly and sternly to the Kyrgyz turmoil, amending the laws to ban
public demonstrations during elections. Two well-funded, pro-government parties publicly accused
unspecified outside forces of preparing for revolution, and said their supporters were ready to take up
arms to "defend the country's sovereignty."
Earlier, the government responded to popular uprisings in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and
Ukraine by banning the Democratic Choice party and two opposition newspapers. The recent split of the
main opposition party Ak Zhol is also believed to have been engineered with government help.
Though Nazarbayev's term officially ends in January, neither the opposition nor election officials can
agree on when the presidential vote will be held. The opposition says it should be in December. The
election
commission
says
the
vote
could
be
held
after
his
term
officially
ends.
Even opposition leaders say an uprising is not a foregone conclusion in Kazakhstan — especially if
Nazarbayev
agrees
to
hold
talks
on
democratic
reforms.
"We don't want a Kyrgyz scenario," said Asylbek Kozhakhmetov, a senior official of the opposition
alliance
For
Fair
Kazakhstan.
"The ball is in (Nazarbayev's) court, but most likely he will pretend that no such offer exists,"
Kozhakhmetov said. "Then there will be only one way out left for the opposition — to turn to people."
(Agencies)
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