The World Bank Office, Romania ROMANIA WEEKLY UPDATE Monday May 31 , 2004 The material published in this newsletter is compiled by the World Bank's Bucharest office and staff in Washington, and on the basis of publicly available information. It does not represent the opinion of the World Bank or any other official body. No responsibility for factual accuracy can be taken March nominal and real wage earnings In March 2004 the gross monthly average earnings were ROL 8,065,813 (or Euro 201) and the net monthly average wage (all economy) stood at ROL Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Ian-04 Feb-04 March-04 Real wage index (CPI deflated) y/y % change 8.0 9.2 7.9 9.0 9.6 7.1 8.2 11.7 the Romanian exports in Q 1 2004 were Italy (22.8 percent of the total exports), Germany (15.5 percent), France (8.5 percent), Turkey (6.8 percent), the UK (6.8 percent), Hungary (3.6 percent), Austria (3.3 percent), the Netherlands (3.2 percent), Greece (2.6 percent) and the US (2.3 percent). Q 1 2004 FOB exports totaled 4.32 billion Euros, up 14.6 percent compared with the similar period of 2003. March 2004 FOB exports stood at 1.61 billion Euros, up 20.5 percent from March 2003, 24.3 percent higher than the 2003 average and 8.2 percent higher on a monthly basis, being the highest monthly value since 1990. Q 1 2004 CIF imports reached 5.34 billion Euros, up 17.7 percent year on year. Imports from the EU countries, stated in Euros, advanced 13.2 percent year on year in Q 1 2004, making up 53.8 percent of the total imports. Imports from Central and Eastern Europe rose 23.4 percent, making up 10.6 percent of the total imports. 5,857,482 (or Euro 146.2), up 6.9% m/m. See attached the dynamics of the y/y real growth of the net wage earnings in the second part of 2003 and first part of 2004. Net average earnings increased in most economic activities, being determined by the following causes: payment of bonuses and incentives; tax regularization for 2003; salary negotiations in the following activities: hydrocarbons extraction and similar, machinery and equipment, electric and thermal energy, gas and water production and supply, construction, trade, financial intermediation; payment of bonuses from the net profit in the following activities: wearing apparel, publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media. April inflation The monthly CPI-measured inflation rate in April 2004 stood at 0.6 % m/m, according to data released by the National Institute for Statistics (INS). Foreign trade performance in Q1 2004 Romania's exports to the European Union countries, stated in Euros, rose 12.5 percent in Q 1 2004 year on year, standing at 67.6 percent of Romania's total exports, as data from the Romanian National Statistics Institute indicate. Exports to Central and Eastern Europe increased 48.5 percent, representing 10.1 percent of the total exports. The main destinations for The Government forecasts a 9% end-of-period inflation this year. Price hikes of food products continued to decelerate in March to 0.7% m/m. In 2002-2003, food prices have constantly increased at a slower rate than the headline inflation, while services prices have increased at a steeper pace. Additional information can be found at http://www.insse.ro/ Consumer pricemeasured inflation Total Food Non-food Services April 2004 Monthly average compared inflation rate during with: 1 I – 30 IV Mar2004 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.0 Dec2003 2.8 2.2 3.3 3.2 2004 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 2003 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 The privatization of BCR The government will meet this week the last requirements outlined by the IFC and EBRD for taking over 25% of the BCR bank's shares. The government will take formal responsibility for doubtful assets and all liabilities resulted from trials inherited by BCR from Bancorex, explained Finance Minister Mihai Tanasescu. The government rushed to announce the deal completed as early as last fall, but more details had to be negotiated meanwhile. Adjustments in the managerial structure of the bank have been operated while the balance sheet was cleaned from doubtful assets or potential liabilities inherited from the bankrupt Bancorex in 1998. PM Adrian Nastase announced that the Executive is willing to carry on the privatization process and that, at the moment, the option of selling another 25% of the stock is being analyzed. The President of EBRD, Jean Lemmiere, would come to Romania over the coming days to discuss with the Romanian authorities the variants related to the most appropriate moment for the continuation of BCR privatization. National Bank of Romania international reserves rise by 260 million Euro National Bank of Romania (NBR) foreign currency reserves stood at 7,026.5 million Euro in late April, on the increase by 261.9 million Euro, according to data released by the National Bank of Romania (NBR). The increase in April ensued from the central bank's 212-million Euro net purchases on the foreign currency market, 38.9-million Euro net inflows derived from foreign currency Government bonds issued by the Ministry of Public Finance on the domestic market, 17.6-million Euro revenues derived from the international reserve management, payments worth 23.3 million Euro in the form of outstanding installments and interests to the foreign public debt, direct and Foreign Ministry-secured, and other net proceeds totaling 16.7 million Euro.