Yellow Dot Epidemic Amy W. Farnbach In this lesson, students will simulate an infectious disease outbreak in the school by passing a “disease” to one another by means of colored dot stickers. By observing, tracking, and analyzing the person-to-person spread of the disease, then proposing intervention measures to halt the epidemic, students will use techniques similar to those used by epidemiologists investigating real-world outbreaks of diseases such as influenza, staphylococcus, Ebola, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Keywords disease; epidemic; epidemiology; health; medicine Grade Level 7 – 8, but also appropriate for older students Duration 6 or more days, of which 5 full class periods are needed Day 1 Background Day 2 Epidemic Full class period for pre-assessment and background activity No class time needed Day 3 Full class period for initial discussion and data collection Day 4 Full class period for data collection and analysis Day 5 Full class period for hypotheses, data collection and analysis, and intervention proposals Day 6 Full class period for data collection and analysis, and planning implementation of intervention proposals Full or partial class periods as needed for data collection and analysis, discussing intervention proposals, and presenting findings to other grades Additional Days Purpose This lesson is intended to introduce students to the study of epidemics through simulation of an infectious disease outbreak in the school. In this lesson, students record and map cases of a simulated disease passed among students for several days. This introduces students to epidemiological techniques including case mapping, tracing chains of transmission, and identifying patterns in the timing of cases. Placing this lesson in the context of a real time simulation helps students to gain an awareness of the often urgent nature of scientific inquiry as it relates to human health, as well as of the construction and reconstruction of scientific knowledge in response to changing information and application of scientific research in response to identified needs or problems. Research on children’s and adolescents’ understanding of infectious disease (e.g., Bibace and Walsh, 1980; Kister and Patterson, 1980; Perrin and Gerrity, 1981; Sigelman et al., 1993) indicates that students at the seventh and eighth grade level are primed to gain a fine-tuned understanding of infectious diseases: they are able to conceptualize the complex interior of the body and the effects of “germs” upon it, but may not distinguish among risk factors for different types of diseases on their own. The Yellow Dot Epidemic lesson addresses key misconceptions of students about infectious disease by, for example, demonstrating the need for proximity between infectious and susceptible individuals for disease to spread and excluding noninfectious causality like going out into the cold with wet hair. In addition, the lesson is designed 1 to fit within the Arizona seventh and eighth grade curriculum on populations and ecosystems and addresses national and Arizona science standards for both grades. Standards NATIONAL SCIENCE EDUCATION STANDARDS Content Standards: 5 – 8 Content Standard A Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry; understandings about scientific inquiry Content Standard C Populations and ecosystems Content Standard F Personal health; populations, resources, and environments; risks and benefits; science and technology in society Content Standard G Science as a human endeavor; nature of science ARIZONA STATE STANDARDS Seventh Grade Strand 1: Inquiry Process Concept 1: Observations, Questions, and Hypotheses PO 1. Formulate questions based on observations that lead to the development of a hypothesis. Concept 2: Scientific Testing (Investigating and Modeling) PO 5. Keep a record of observations, notes, sketches, questions, and ideas using tools such as written and/or computer logs. Concept 3: Analysis and Conclusions PO 1. Analyze data obtained in a scientific investigation to identify trends PO 2. Form a logical argument about a correlation between variables or sequence of events. PO 3. Analyze results of data collection in order to accept or reject the hypothesis. PO 4. Determine validity and reliability of results of an investigation. PO 5. Formulate a conclusion based on data analysis. PO 6. Refine hypotheses based on results from investigations. PO 7. Formulate new questions based on the results of a previous investigation. Concept 4: Communication PO 1. Choose an appropriate graphic representation for collected data. PO 2. Display data collected from a controlled investigation. PO 3. Communicate the results of an investigation with appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative information. PO 5. Communicate the results and conclusion of the investigation. Strand 2: History and Nature of Science Concept 2: Nature of Scientific Knowledge PO 1. Describe how science is an ongoing process that changes in response to new information and discoveries. PO 2. Describe how scientific knowledge is subject to change as new information and/or technology challenges prevailing theories. Strand 3: Science in Personal and Social Perspectives Concept 2: Science and Technology in Society PO 1. Propose viable methods of responding to an identified need or problem. PO 2. Compare solutions to best address an identified need or problem. Strand 4: Life Science Concept 3: Populations of Organisms in an Ecosystem PO 3. Analyze the interactions of living organisms with their ecosystems: limiting factors, carrying capacity. PO 4. Evaluate data related to problems associated with population growth and the possible solutions. 2 Eighth Grade Strand 1: Inquiry Process Concept 1: Observations, Questions, and Hypotheses PO 1. Formulate questions based on observations that lead to the development of a hypothesis. PO 2. Use appropriate research information, not limited to a single source, to use in the development of a testable hypothesis. PO 3. Generate a hypothesis that can be tested. Concept 2: Scientific Testing (Investigating and Modeling) PO 2. Design a controlled investigation to support or reject a hypothesis. PO 3. Conduct a controlled investigation to support or reject a hypothesis. PO 5. Keep a record of observations, notes, sketches, questions, and ideas using tools such as written and/or computer logs. Concept 3: Analysis and Conclusions PO 1. Analyze data obtained in a scientific investigation to identify trends. PO 2. Form a logical argument about a correlation between variables or sequence of events. PO 4. Formulate a future investigation based on the data collected. PO 5. Explain how evidence supports the validity and reliability of a conclusion. PO 6. Identify the potential investigational error that may occur. PO 8. Formulate new questions based on the results of a previous investigation. Concept 4: Communication PO 1. Communicate the results of an investigation. PO 2. Choose an appropriate graphic representation for collected data. PO 3. Present analyses and conclusions in clear, concise formats. PO 5. Communicate the results and conclusion of the investigation. Strand 2: History and Nature of Science Concept 2: Nature of Scientific Knowledge PO 3. Defend the principle that accurate record keeping, openness, and replication are essential for maintaining an investigator’s credibility with other scientists and society. PO 4. Explain why scientific claims may be questionable if based on very small samples of data, biased samples, or samples for which there was no control. Strand 3: Science in Personal and Social Perspectives Concept 2: Science and Technology in Society PO 1. Propose viable methods of responding to an identified need or problem. PO 2. Compare solutions to best address an identified need or problem. Strand 4: Life Science Concept 4: Diversity, Adaptation, and Behavior PO 2. Describe how an organism can maintain a stable internal environment while living in a constantly changing external environment. PO 4. Compare the symbiotic and competitive relationships in organisms within an ecosystem. Background Teachers who do not feel confident in their understanding of infectious diseases, pathogens, and the study of epidemics can gain a sufficient understanding through many of the materials linked in the “Resources” section below, particularly Appendix D of Downie’s model curriculum (2006), the “Overview” section of Detectives in the Classroom, and “Understanding Infectious Diseases” in the “Teacher’s Guide” section of Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Teachers will need to understand that an infectious disease is a condition that impairs normal body function and can be spread among humans, between humans and other organisms, or in the environment; pathogens are the agents that cause disease, and include bacteria, viruses, fungi, and prions. Epidemiology is “the study of the distribution and determinants of healthrelated states in specified populations, and the application of this study to control health problems” (Centers for Disease Control, 2004); an overview of how epidemiologists conduct outbreak investigations is linked below in “Steps of an Outbreak Investigation”. To manipulate the Yellow Dot Epidemic data, students will need a basic working knowledge of how human-to-human transmitted diseases such as colds and influenza are spread, including 3 actual and perceived risk factors such as close contact between infected and susceptible individuals or becoming chilled by going out without appropriate outerwear. It is not necessary for students to distinguish between actual and perceived risks at the outset of the lesson; observations made during the simulated outbreak should help them to do this. Materials Colored dot stickers equal to the number of students participating in the simulated epidemic, cut into strips with 1 – 4 stickers each, as well as 5 – 10 strips of 8 stickers each Instruction cards to accompany strips of stickers given to new cases, explaining how to spread the stickers to others (see Appendix 1 below) Recording forms for teachers of all classes with students participating in the simulated epidemic (see Appendix 2 below) School map for overhead or Smart Board projection so that classes can map data from recording forms Procedures OVERVIEW The epidemic will last for about five days, during which students spread a “disease” by giving and receiving colored dot stickers. Students who receive a dot (“catch the disease”) will be asked to report to their teacher on the way into or out of class. The student will then be given an instruction card and a strip of stickers that will be used to pass the disease to others; sticker strips will usually have one to four stickers, but a few cases will be “superspreaders” with eight stickers. This will work most smoothly if teachers of all students included in the disease spread are involved; as described below, their participation is minimal and should not disturb their own teaching plans. We included all sixth through eighth graders and school staff. PRIOR TO THE LESSON 1. Prepare teacher packets with instruction cards (Appendix 1), sticker strips, and case recording forms (Appendix 2) for each day of the epidemic. 2. Meet with teachers of all classes with students participating in the simulated epidemic; explain their participation: a. Each teacher will receive a packet with case recording forms for each day of the epidemic, instruction cards for students who catch the disease, and strips of stickers for students with the disease to spread it to others. b. A student who receives a dot should report to his/her teacher on the way into or out of class; teachers should tell him/her the sticker is a disease called “yellow dot” and have him/her fill in the information on a case report form, which asks for the student’s name, grade, the name of the student s/he caught the disease from (if known), and where s/he caught it (e.g., playground, hall, room number). c. The student should then be given an instruction card and a randomly drawn strip of stickers that will be used to pass the disease to others; sticker strips will usually have one to four stickers, but a few cases will be “superspreaders” with eight stickers. d. Students from the classes performing the analysis will be sent to collect each teacher’s form daily; if teachers run low on forms, instruction cards, or sticker strips, they should request these from the teacher coordinating the epidemic as soon as possible, so as not to run out and interrupt the chain of transmission or data recording. e. Ask teachers of participating classes, or homerooms with participating grades, to announce that any student receiving a colored dot sticker should let their teacher know before or after class. This could instead be incorporated into any school-wide 4 morning announcements. No mention of disease or the simulated epidemic should be given at this time in order to maintain the sense of surprise and confusion that often accompanies a real-world disease outbreak; students should simply be aware that if they get stickers, they need to see their teacher without disrupting class. 3. Make arrangements with the teacher(s) of other grades participating in the epidemic for students to present their findings about the disease to these classes after the epidemic ends. 4. Make arrangements for in-class presentations or an assembly for students to present findings about real diseases to all grade levels. DAY 1 (Full class period) Pre-assessment (15 minutes) An evaluation of students’ prior knowledge and interests regarding infectious diseases, described in “Assessment” below, should be completed first. Getting to Know Your Diseases (35 minutes) To provide students with a baseline conception of infectious diseases and pathogens, information cards about a range of diseases should be provided to students to read and discuss in small groups before coming together as a class to discuss the types of pathogens the students learned about, the ways diseases are spread (e.g., among humans, from animals to humans), and methods for prevention and treatment. We summarized information from 20 World Health Organization Fact Sheets about specific diseases (see “Resources” below) on index cards and distributed two cards to each group of four students. An excellent alternative is available from the Centers for Disease control in a set of downloadable disease cards with pictures and information about different diseases (see “Resources” below). Because we designed this lesson as background for an activity re-enacting John Snow’s study of cholera, we excluded cholera from the diseases discussed during this class session. DAY 2 (No class time needed) Begin disease transmission Give one staff member an instruction card and sticker strip. On this and subsequent days, teachers should encourage reporting by speaking to students with dots (e.g., “What is that yellow dot? Where did you get it? I need you to come see me after class and tell me more about this.”) DAY 3 (Full class period) Disease transmission continues Begin data recording (50 minutes) 1. Tell students there is an outbreak of yellow dot in the school, and they need to figure out how to stop it. 2. Discuss how students will approach the problem: what do they need to know? What will that tell them? How will they get that information? Students should come up with the idea of finding out who is affected and how the disease is spread. (10 minutes) 3. Send students to collect the previous day’s case reports from all participating teachers. (5 minutes) 4. Distribute the case reports to small groups of students and ask them to note any apparent patterns or trends; discuss ways to represent the data to better examine patterns. (10 minutes) 5. Have students plot where students caught the disease on maps of the school; this can be done on an electronic map using a Smart Board, on a large printed map hung on the wall, or on an overhead projector. Encourage them to find a way to note 5 which day each case occurred for easier analysis of time/space patterns. Also have them generate any other representations, such as graphs or tables, they thought would be useful in the previous step. (15 minutes) 6. Have students note any observations they think will be relevant; at this point, these might include concentration of cases in particular rooms or areas of campus. If clusters of cases occur on this or subsequent days, discuss correlation vs. causation: are cases concentrated in Ms. Smith’s room because something in that room is making people sick? How do we prove/disprove this hypothesis? (10 minutes) DAY 4 (Full class period) Disease transmission continues Continue data recording and analysis (45 minutes) 1. Collect the previous day’s case reports and add them to the maps/graphs. (10 minutes) 2. Have students note any other observations and discuss these as a class, prompting them to begin plotting the number of cases vs. time if they do not do so on their own. (10 minutes) 3. Introduce the epidemiological measures prevalence (total number of cases during a time period) and incidence (number of new cases during a time period) and ask students to calculate these for each day of the epidemic (calculations below). Discuss what these measures add to understanding the disease. 4. To calculate prevalence and incidence, assume people are sick with the disease for three days after catching it, or have students use the case reports to track how long each infected person takes to finish spreading the disease; i.e., how many days before no new cases reported Johnny as the source of their infection? (20 minutes) Incidence Rate = Number of new cases of a disease during a specified time period Number of people at risk of developing the disease during that time period Prevalence Rate = Number of cases present during time period Number of people at risk for disease 5. On this and subsequent days, students should note trends and changes in disease transmission from their maps and graphs and from calculated prevalence and incidence for each day. (5 minutes) Begin proposals for controlling the epidemic (5 minutes) 1. Ask students to begin to think about what control measures they think might work to stop the epidemic and how they might determine how the epidemic started. 2. As homework, ask each student to develop a brief proposal of what can be done to stop the epidemic, and how the effectiveness of this control measure could be evaluated. DAY 5 (Full class period) Disease transmission continues Continue data recording and analysis (20 minutes) Map, graph, and calculate incidence and prevalence of yellow dot based on the previous day’s case reports (10 minutes) Have students hypothesize, based on what they know or have observed about the disease, what course the epidemic will take: will every student be affected? Will the number of new cases increase every day? How long will the disease continue to spread? What are the risk factors for the disease? (10 minutes) 6 Continue proposals for controlling the epidemic (30 minutes) Discuss proposals to stop the epidemic. Have each class come to a consensus on one intervention measure; encourage students to discuss the feasibility of each measure in coming to their decision (e.g., quarantine will cause students to miss class; an alternative, having students avoid coming near infected classmates, may stigmatize infected students). This may need to be continued on the following day. DAY 6 (Full class period) Disease transmission continues Continue data recording and analysis (35 minutes) 1. Discuss ways to determine how the epidemic started; students should come up with the idea of contact tracing. (10 minutes) 2. Implement this, with students perhaps charting contacts (who passed the disease to whom). (20 minutes) 3. Some contact data may be missing if a student managed to sneak a sticker onto someone else: this can be used as a jumping-off point for discussion about the difficulty of tracing diseases in the real world and biases in epidemiological data. (5 minutes) Continue proposals for controlling the epidemic (15 minutes) Have small groups outline plans for implementing the chosen control measure and evaluating its effectiveness. SUBSEQUENT DAYS (Partial or full class periods, as needed) Disease transmission continues Disease transmission can be allowed to continue until all students have had the disease and incidence thus tapers to zero, or for a specified number of days. The former allows students to follow up on their predictions from day 5 about what course the epidemic would take, while the latter leaves such questions open, perhaps to be tested with additional epidemics later in the year (see “Extensions” below). Continue data recording and analysis Mapping, graphing, and calculating prevalence and incidence should be continued as long as transmission is still occurring. Presentation of findings Have groups prepare a presentation on yellow dot to inform sixth grade students of their findings: how the epidemic progressed, explaining any spatial or temporal patterns; where the disease originated and how it spread; risk factors (i.e., what students can do to avoid catching it); what the school should do if another yellow dot outbreak occurs (i.e., their intervention plan); and how this will limit the number of students who are affected with the disease. Arrangements should then be made to deliver the presentation to the younger students. FOLLOW UP Throughout and following the epidemic, the teacher should encourage students to make connections to real diseases such as colds, influenza, and chicken pox and the outcomes and social implications of real control strategies like quarantine, requiring infected individuals to wear masks or take medication, and vaccination. Within the framework of the simulated epidemic, and incorporating outside research, students can evaluate received and self-constructed wisdom about what causes infectious disease (e.g., getting chilled, contact with infected individuals) to establish logic that will allow them to separate real from folk (wear a hat to avoid getting sick) or hysterical (eating chicken puts one at risk for avian flu) risk factors they encounter in the future. Students should incorporate this information into 7 an age-appropriate presentation to be performed for all grade levels in class visits or during an assembly. Post-assessment After students have completed their observations, research, and presentations, their knowledge, misconceptions, and interests and how these have changed should be surveyed as described in “Assessment” below. Assessment FORMATIVE EVALUATION Pre-assessment of students’ background, misconceptions, and interests with respect to infectious disease before the simulated epidemic takes the form of student brainstorming under each of the headings, “What I know about how people catch diseases” and “What I want to know about infectious disease”. This can be completed in student’s lab books or notebooks, or using the form in Appendix 3 below. Post-assessment of students’ understanding of infectious diseases and how they are spread, as well as their interests for any future work with this topic, is similar to the preassessment, but with the added headings, “One way my knowledge about catching diseases has changed is” and “I changed my mind about this because (include specific observations from the infectious disease activities we’ve done)”. Students should have their pre-assessment for reference when completing this reflection, and this can be completed in notebooks or using the form in Appendix 4 below. SUMMATIVE EVALUATION The students’ proposed intervention measures and presentations of findings to younger students should be graded for quality of reasoning, application of epidemic data in support of their arguments, and clarity of presentation. Extensions A number of extensions to this activity can be incorporated into the initial epidemic or into subsequent epidemics, during which students can be asked to simply determine the differences from the original yellow dot and their effects, or to implement and test their control measures. Some suggestions are listed below. FATAL CASES A number of red dot stickers can be included among the yellow dots distributed to students who catch the disease; a student receiving a red dot has caught a fatal case, is recorded as such on the case recording form, and receives no stickers to pass the disease to others. Alternatively, the teacher can decide on an attribute that will be associated with fatal cases (e.g., being a sixth grader, being in a particular homeroom). Ask all participating teachers to tell any student who has that attribute and catches the disease to inform the student s/he has a fatal case of yellow dot, cannot catch the disease again, and will not get stickers to spread the disease to others; this can be done easily using an alternate instruction card. This would favor discussion of the social impact of deadly diseases, including news coverage of avian flu and diseases that have historically killed large numbers of sufferers but today are easily treated. MULTIPLE STRAINS Simulate the yellow dot epidemic as described above, but at the same time spread blue dot with strips of 5 – 8 stickers; students catching yellow dot spread the disease to 1 – 4 others, 8 but students catching blue dot spread it to 5 – 8 people. This simulates either a more virulent and less virulent strain of the same disease or two different diseases; students can compare patterns of transmission for the two strains/diseases. This would favor discussion of competition among organisms, the news coverage of avian flu, and the many different diseases threatening human and/or animal populations in different areas of the world. VACCINATION Before the epidemic begins, select a group of students (perhaps one homeroom) to “vaccinate” by giving them a sticker or badge that they will wear every day the epidemic occurs; they will not be able to catch yellow dot, and should either refuse to accept a sticker from people with the disease or simply not report it if they do receive one. This would favor discussion of control measures, childhood vaccination, and herd immunity (see “Protecting the Herd” in Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases). Resources Centers for Disease Control Disease Cards EXCITE Steps of an Outbreak Investigation Detectives in the Classroom: A Middle School and High School Epidemiology Curriculum Downie Model Infectious Disease Curriculum Epidemiology Education Movement National Institutes of Health Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases Curriculum Supplement World Health Organization Fact Sheets Works Cited Bibace R, and Walsh ME (1980) Development of children's concepts of illness. Pediatrics 66:912-917. Centers for Disease Control (2004) An introduction to epidemiology. IN Epidemiology in the Classroom. Atlanta, GA: http://www.cdc.gov/excite/classroom/intro_epi.htm#defined. Downie DL (2006) A model infectious disease curriculum for fourth grade students: integrating prevention and education concepts in the classroom. MPH Thesis: University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh. Kister MC, and Patterson CJ (1980) Children's conceptions of the causes of illness: understanding of contagion and use of immanent justice. Child Development 51:839-846. Perrin EC, and Gerrity PS (1981) There's a demon in your belly: children's understanding of illness. Pediatrics 67:841-849. Sigelman C, Maddock A, Epstein J, and Carpenter W (1993) Age differences in understandings of disease causality: AIDS, colds, and cancer. Child Development 64:272-284. 9 Appendix 1: Instruction Cards You have caught yellow dot! You have caught yellow dot! This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. You have caught yellow dot! Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. You have caught yellow dot! This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. You have caught yellow dot! Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. You have caught yellow dot! This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. You have caught yellow dot! Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. You have caught yellow dot! This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: This disease is contagious, and you can spread it by giving these stickers to other people. But only 6th through 8th graders and school staff can catch it! Be sure to follow these rules: Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. Give your stickers out without disrupting your classes. You can’t catch yellow dot more than once; if you get another sticker, throw it away and don’t report it to your teacher. When you see stickers on other students, remind them to report it to the teacher on the way in or out of class. Appendix 2: Case Recording Form Yellow Dot Case Recording Form Date: Room: Name Grade Teacher: Who gave it to you? Where? Appendix 3: Pre-assessment Questionnaire Name Date Hour Please answer the questions below by brainstorming. This will not be graded, so no answers are wrong; just write whatever comes to mind when thinking about the questions. 1. What I know about how people catch diseases: 2. What I want to know about infectious diseases: Appendix 3: Post-assessment Questionnaire Name Date Hour Please answer the questions the first two questions below by brainstorming. For the last two questions, reflect on what we’ve done with diseases and pick the answer that has been most important to you. This will not be graded, so no answers are wrong; just write whatever comes to mind when thinking about the questions. 1. What I know about how people catch diseases: 2. What I want to know about infectious diseases: 3. One way my knowledge about catching diseases has changed is: 4. I changed my mind about this because (include specific observations from the infectious disease activities we’ve done):