252y0313b 10/02/03 IV. Solution to second problem on TAKE HOME SECTION Show your work! State H 0 and H 1 where appropriate. You have not done a hypothesis test unless you have stated your hypotheses, run the numbers and stated your conclusion. Use a 95% confidence level unless another level is specified. 1scratchh 2. Robert N Carver presents us with a data set representing departure delays for flights between JFK and LAX airports. The sample of 52 flights gives us a sample mean delay of 2.21 minutes. Assume a population standard deviation with a value of (10 + the third digit of your social security number). (Example: My Social Security Number is 265398248 and the third digit is 5, so the population standard deviation will be 10 5 15 ). Test the assertion that the mean delay is less than 2.5 minutes. (Use a significance level of 10% in this problem.) a) State your null and alternative hypotheses (1) b) Find a critical value of the sample mean and specify your ‘reject’ region. Make a diagram. (1) c) Do you reject the null hypothesis? Use your diagram to show why. (1) d) Create a power curve for this test. (Note that negative values of the mean are not impossible and would indicate an early departure.) (6) e) Assume that you want a 90% 2-sided confidence interval for the mean delay, with an error of 1.0 . How large a sample would you need? (2) f) Find a p-value for the null hypothesis.(2) From the formula table we have: Interval for Confidence Interval Mean ( x z 2 x known) Hypotheses Test Ratio H0 : 0 z H1 : 0 x 0 x Critical Value xcv z 2 x A one-page solution of each version of the problem follows. Don’t waste paper. Only copy this page and one other page! 1 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 10.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 10 .00 10 2 1.923 1.3868 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical value 52 n 52 below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 1.3868 2.5 1.778 0.722 . The ‘reject’ region is below 0.722. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below 0.722. c) Since x 2.21 is above .722 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .51.778 0.9 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.6, .722, -0.2, -1.1. 0.722 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.722, so Px 0.722 1 P z 1.3868 . 1 2.5 P z 1 1.6 P z 1 0.722 P z 1 0.2 P z 1 1.1 P z 0.722 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 1.3868 . 1 .10 0.722 1.6 Pz 0.63 .5 .2357 .7357 1.3868 . 1 .2643 0.722 0.722 Pz 0 .5 1.3868 . 1 .5 0.722 0.2 Pz 0.66 .5 .2454 .2546 1.3868 . 1 .7454 0.722 1.1 Pz 1.32 .5 .4066 .0934 1.3868 . 1 .9066 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -1.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. e) The formula is n z 2 2 e2 . z z.05 1.645 , 10 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 10 2 1 270 .6 . So use 271. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 1.3868 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.21 .5 .0832 .4168 . 1.3868 2 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 11.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 11 .00 11 2 2.327 1.5254 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 1.5254 2.5 1.956 0.544 . The ‘reject’ region is below 0.544. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below 0.544. c) Since x 2.21 is above .544 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .51.956 1.0 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.5, 0.544, -0.5, -1.5. 0.544 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.544, so Px 0.544 1 P z 1.5254 . 1 2.5 P z 1 1.5 P z 1 0.544 P z 1 0.5 P z 1 1.5 P z 0.544 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 1.5254 1 .10 0.544 1.5 Pz 0.63 .5 .2357 .7357 1.5254 . 1 .2643 0.544 0.544 Pz 0 .5 1.5254 . 1 .5 0.544 0.5 Pz 0.68 .5 .2517 .2483 1.5254 . 1 .7517 0.544 1.5 Pz 1.34 .5 .4099 .0901 1.5254 . 1 .9099 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -1.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. 1.645 2 112 327 .4 . So use z 2 2 e) The formula is n . z z .05 1.645 , 11, and e 1. n 2 1 e2 328. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know x 0 z and x 1.5254 . x 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.19 .5 .0753 .4247 . 1.5254 3 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 12.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 12 .00 12 2 2.769 1.6641 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical value 52 n 52 below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 1.6641 2.5 2.133 0.367 . The ‘reject’ region is below 0.367. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below 0.367. c) Since x 2.21 is above .367 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .51.778 1.1 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.4, 0.367, -0.8, -1.9. 0.367 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.367, so Px 0.367 1 P z 1.6641 1 2.5 P z 1 1.4 P z 1 0.367 P z 1 0.8 P z 1 1.9 P z 0.367 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 1.6641 1 .10 0.367 1.4 Pz 0.62 .5 .2324 .7324 1.6641 1 .2676 0.367 0.367 Pz 0 .5 1.6641 1 .5 0.367 0.8 Pz 0.70 .5 .2580 .2420 1.6641 1 .7580 0.367 1.9 Pz 1.36 .5 .4131 .0869 1.6641 1 .9131 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -2.0 to 2.5 on the x-axis. 1.645 2 12 2 389 .7 . So use z 2 2 10 , e 1 . e) The formula is n . , and z z 1 . 645 n .05 2 1 e2 390. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know x 0 z and x 1.6641 . x 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.17 .5 .0675 .4325 . 1.6641 4 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 13.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 13 .00 13 2 3.250 1.8028 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 1.8028 2.5 2.311 0.189 . The ‘reject’ region is below 0.189. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below 0.189. c) Since x 2.21 is above 0.189 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .52.311 1.2 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.3, 0.189, -1.1, -2.3. 0.189 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.722, so Px 0.189 1 P z 1.8028 . 1 2.5 P z 1 1.3 P z 1 0.189 P z 1 1.1 P z 1 2.3 P z 0.189 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 1.8028 . 1 .10 0.189 1.3 Pz 0.61 .5 .2291 .7291 1.8028 . 1 .2709 0.189 0.189 Pz 0 .5 1.8028 . 1 .5 0.189 1.1 Pz 0.71 .5 .1772 .3228 1.8028 . 1 .6772 0.189 2.3 Pz 1.31 .5 .4049 .0951 1.8028 . 1 .9049 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -2.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. z 2 2 1.645 2 132 457 .3 . So use e) The formula is n . z z .05 1.645 , 10 , and e 1. n 2 1 e2 458. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know x 0 z and x 1.8028 . x 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.16 .5 .0636 .4364 . 1.8028 5 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 14.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 14 .00 14 2 3.769 1.9415 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 1.9415 2.5 2.489 0.011 The ‘reject’ region is below 0.011. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below 0.011. c) Since x 2.21 is above 0.011 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .52.489 1.2 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.3, 0.011, -1.1, -2.3. 0.011 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.722, so Px 0.011 1 P z 1.9415 1 2.5 P z 1 1.3 P z 1 0.011 P z 1 1.1 P z 1 2.3 P z 0.011 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 1.9415 1 .10 0.011 1.3 Pz 0.67 .5 .2486 .7486 1.9415 1 .2514 0.011 .011 Pz 0 .5 1.9415 1 .5 0.011 1.1 Pz 0.57 .5 .2157 .2843 1.9415 1 .7157 0.011 2.3 Pz 1.19 .5 .3830 .1170 1.9415 1 .8830 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -2.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. e) The formula is n z 2 2 e2 . z z.05 1.645 , 14 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 14 2 1 530 .4 . So use 531. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 1.9415 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.15 .5 .0596 .4404 . 1.9415 6 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 15.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 15 .00 15 2 4.326 2.0801 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 2.0801 2.5 2.667 0.167 . The ‘reject’ region is below -0.167. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below -0.167.. c) Since x 2.21 is above -0.167 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .52.667 1.3 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.2, -0.167, -1.4, -2.7. 0.167 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv = -0.167, so Px 0. 0.167 1 P z 2.0801 1 2.5 P z 1 1.2 P z 1 0.167 P z 1 1.4 P z P z 0.167 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 2.0801 1 .10 0.167 1.2 Pz 0.66 .5 .2454 .7454 2.0801 1 .7546 0.167 0.167 Pz 0 .5 2.0801 1 .5 0.167 1.4 Pz 0.59 .5 .2224 .2776 2.0801 1 .7224 0.167 2.7 Pz 1.22 .5 .3888 .1112 2.0801 1 .8888 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -3.0 to 2.5 on the x-axis. 1 2.7 e) The formula is n z 2 2 e 2 . z z.05 1.645 , 15 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 15 2 1 608 .9 . So use 609. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 2.0801 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.14 .5 .0557 .4443 . 2.0801 7 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 16.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 10 .00 n 52 16 2 4.923 2.2188 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 value below 2.5, so we use x cv z x 2.5 1.2822.2188 2.5 2.845 0.345. The ‘reject’ region is below -0.345. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below 0.345 . c) Since x 2.21 is above -0.345 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .52.845 1.4 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.1, -0.345, -1.7, -3.1. 0.345 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.722, so Px 0.345 1 P z 2.2188 . 1 2.5 P z 1 1.1 P z 1 0.345 P z 1 1.7 P z 1 3.1 P z 0.345 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 2.2188 . 1 .10 0.345 1.1 Pz 0.65 .5 .2422 .7422 2.2188 . 1 .2578 0.345 0.345 Pz 0 .5 2.2188 . 1 .5 0.345 1.7 Pz 0.61 .5 .2291 .2709 2.2188 . 1 .7291 0.345 3.1 Pz 1.24 .5 .3925 .1075 2.2188 . 1 .8925 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -3.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. e) The formula is n z 2 2 e2 . z z.05 1.645 , 16 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 16 2 1 692 .7 . So use 693. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 2.2188 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.13 .5 .0517 .4483 . 2.2188 8 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 17.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 17 .00 17 2 5.558 2.3575 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 2.3575 2.5 3.022 0.522 . The ‘reject’ region is below -0.522. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below -0.522. c) Since x 2.21 is above -0.522 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .53.022 1.5 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 1.0, -0.522, -2.0, -3.5. 0.522 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =-0.522, so Px 0.522 1 P z 2.3575 1 2.5 P z 1 1.0 P z 1 0.522 P z 1 2.0 P z P z 0.522 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 2.3575 1 .10 0.522 1.0 Pz 0.64 .5 .2389 .7389 2.3575 1 .2611 0.522 0.522 Pz 0 .5 2.3575 1 .5 0.522 2.0 Pz 0.63 .5 .2357 .2643 2.3575 1 .7357 0.522 3.5 Pz 1.26 .5 .3962 .1038 2.3575 1 .8962 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -4.0 to 2.5 on the x-axis. 1 3.5 e) The formula is n z 2 2 e 2 . z z.05 1.645 , 10 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 17 2 1 782 .04 . So use 783. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 2.3575 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 z Pz 0.12 .5 .0478 .4522 . 2.3575 9 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 18.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 18 .00 18 2 6.231 2.4961 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 2.4961 2.5 3.200 0.700 . The ‘reject’ region is below -0.700. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below - 0.700. c) Since x 2.21 is above -0.700 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .53.200 1.6 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 0.9, -0.700, -2.3, -3.9. 0.700 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =-0.700, so Px 0.700 1 P z 2.4961 0.700 1 P z 2.4961 1 2.5 P z 1 0.9 P z 1 0.700 P z 1 2.3 P z P z 0.700 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 2.4961 1 .10 0.700 0.9 Pz 0.6 .5 .2389 .7389 2.4961 1 .2611 0.700 0.700 Pz 0 .5 2.4961 1 .5 0.700 2.3 Pz 0.64 .5 .2389 .2611 2.4961 1 .7389 0.700 3.9 Pz 1.28 .5 .3997 .1003 2.4961 1 .8997 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -4.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. 1 3.9 e) The formula is n z 2 2 e2 . z z.05 1.645 , 10 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 18 2 1 876 .8 . So use 877. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 2.4961 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.11 .5 .0438 .4562 . 2.4961 10 252y0313b 10/02/03 Solution: 19.00 a) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, .10 , so we can use z z.10 1.282 or z z.05 1.645 . 2 b) This is a one-sided test, so we are only worried about values of the sample mean below 2.5 . We use x 19 .00 19 2 4.942 2.6348 . Because of the alternate hypothesis, we want a critical 52 n 52 value below 2.5, so we use xcv z x 2.5 1.282 2.6348 2.5 3.378 0.878 . The ‘reject’ region is below -0.878. Make a diagram of a Normal curve centered at 2.5 with a shaded area below -0.878. c) Since x 2.21 is above -0.878 and thus not in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject H 0. d) Since the alternate hypothesis is H1 : 2.5 , all values of 1 must be below 2.5. If we use .53.378 1.7 as a rough metric, let 1 be 2.5, 0.8, -0.878, -2.6, -4.3. 0.878 1 . So if We do not reject H 0 if x x cv =.-0.878, so Px 0.878 1 P z 2.6348 0.878 1 P z 2.6348 1 2.5 P z 1 0.8 P z 1 0.878 P z 1 2.6 P z P z 0.878 2.5 Pz 1.282 .90 2.6348 1 .10 0.878 0.8 Pz 0.64 .5 .2389 .7389 2.6348 1 .2611 0.878 0.878 Pz 0 .5 2.6348 1 .5 0.878 2.6 Pz 0.65 .5 .2422 .2578 2.6348 1 .7422 0.878 4.3 Pz 1.29 .5 .4015 .0985 2.6348 1 .9015 Note that it is not necessary to do the first and third calculation. It is always true that if 1 0 , power = and that if 1 x cv , power = .5. You now have the power for 5 points less than or equal to 2.5. Make a diagram. Put zero through one on the y-axis and -4.5 to 2.5 on the x-axis. 1 4.3 e) The formula is n z 2 2 e2 . z z.05 1.645 , 19 , and e 1. n 2 1.645 2 19 2 1 976 .9 . So use 977. f) H1 : 2.5 , so the null hypothesis is H 0 : 2.5 . The problem said n 52, x 2.21, and we know z x 0 x and x 2.6348 . 2.21 2.5 So pvalue Px 2.21 P z Pz 0.11 .5 .0438 .4562 . 2.6348 11