252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Examples of Hypothesis tests for the Mean with Unknown Population Variance First Example: A left-sided Problem Statement of problem: The problem statement is either “Test at the 5% significance level to see if the mean income is at least 20000,” or “Test at the 5% significance level to see if the mean income is less than 20000.” These statements are opposites. Since the first statement contains an implicit equality, it must be a null hypothesis. The second statement does not contain an equality, so in must be an alternate hypotheses. H : 20000 Statement of problem as a hypothesis pair: 0 .05 H1 : 20000 The test statistic will be the sample mean x taken from a sample of n 64 , and since the population mean is unknown we must use the t distribution with 64 – 1 = 63 degrees of freedom. Assume that we found s 1600 , which means that s x s 1600 200 . n 64 First Example Using Traditional hypothesis testing. Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19800 . Test Ratio Method: x 0 t , 0 20000 . If the sample mean is below 20000, the t statistic will be negative. Make a diagram sx showing a ‘Normal’ curve with a mean at zero and a value of t cutting off a 5% tail on the left side of zero. 19800 20000 63 1.669 , so the ‘reject’ region is below -1.669. t According to the t table tn1 t.05 1 200 is not in the ‘reject’ region, so do not reject the null hypothesis. Critical Value Method for x : The formula table says xcv t s x , but this is a formula for a 2-sided interval. We want a critical value 2 below 20000, since it should be obvious that if our sample mean is above 20000, we would have no reason to reject the null hypothesis. We use xcv 0 ts x 20000 1.669 200 19666 .2 . Make a diagram with 20000 in the middle showing a 95% ‘accept’ region above 19666.2 and a 5% ‘reject’ region below 19666.2. Since x 19800 does not fall in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject the null hypothesis. Confidence Interval Method: The formula for a confidence interval for the mean is x t x , but a one-sided hypothesis requires a 2 one-sided confidence interval, and to have any value, the confidence interval must be in the same direction as the alternate hypothesis. The interval becomes x tn1 x 19800 1.669200 or 20133.8 . Make a diagram – you should use 19800 as the middle. To represent the null hypothesis shade the area above 20000. To represent the confidence interval shade the area below 20133.8. Since these areas overlap, the confidence interval and the null hypothesis do not contradict one another, so do not reject the null hypothesis. Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19600 . Test Ratio Method: x 0 t , 0 20000 . Use the same ‘Normal’ curve as before with a mean at zero and a value of sx 19600 20000 63 tn1 t.05 1.669 cutting off a 5% tail on the left side of zero. t 2 is in the 200 ‘reject’ region, so reject the null hypothesis. 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Critical Value Method for x : The formula table says xcv t s x , but this is a formula for a 2-sided interval. Because the alternate 2 hypothesis says that the mean is below 2000, we want a critical value below 20000. It should be obvious that if our sample mean is above 20000, we would have no reason to reject the null hypothesis. We use xcv 0 ts x 20000 1.669 200 19666 .2 . Make the same diagram with 20000 in the middle showing a 95% ‘accept’ region above 19666.2 and a 5% ‘reject’ region below 19666.2. Since x 19600 falls in the ‘reject’ region, reject the null hypothesis. Confidence Interval Method: The confidence interval becomes x tn1 x 19600 1.669200 or 19933 .8 . Make a diagram – you may use 19600 as the middle. To represent the null hypothesis shade the area above 20000. To represent the confidence interval shade the area below 19933.8. Since these areas do not overlap, the confidence interval and the null hypothesis contradict one another, so reject the null hypothesis. First Example using p-values. A p-value is a measure of the credibility of the null hypothesis and is defined as the probability that a test statistic or lower low ratio as extreme as or more extreme than the observed statistic or ratio could occur, assuming that the null high higher hypothesis is true. In this case, values are extreme, relative to the null hypothesis H 0 : 20000 , if the sample mean is way below 20000. The easiest way to measure the probability is with the test ratio t t , call it t1 and then find Pt t1 . Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19800 . t x 0 . We find the value of sx 19800 20000 1 , and we want Pt 1 200 The easy way is to check the results on the computer. t Curve with 63 Degrees of Freedom and Standard Deviation 1.01626 The Area to the Left of -1 is 0.1606 0.4 Density 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 Data A xis 1 2 3 The hard way, unfortunately, is the only way if a computer is not available. Look at your 4 t table on the line with 63 63 63 0.847 and t.15 1.045 . Since Pt t and the t degrees of freedom. The two nearest values to one are t.20 distribution is symmetrical, we conclude .15 pvalue .20 . Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19600 . t 19600 20000 2 , and we want Pt 2 200 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) The easy way is to check the results on the computer. t Curve with 63 Degrees of Freedom and Standard Deviation 1.01626 The Area to the Left of -2 is 0.0249 0.4 Density 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -4 If we have to use the -3 -2 -1 0 Data A xis 1 2 3 4 t table, look at the line with 63 degrees of freedom. The two nearest values to two are 63 63 t.025 1.998 and t.01 2.387 . Since Pt t and the t distribution is symmetrical, we conclude .01 pvalue .025 . Assume that when we take our survey we find x 18000 . t 18000 20000 10 , and we want Pt 10 200 The easy way is to check the results on the computer. t Curve with 63 Degrees of Freedom and Standard Deviation 1.01626 The Area to the Left of -10 is 0.0000 0.4 Density 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 Data A xis 0.0 2.5 5.0 63 3.225 . t table, look at the line with 63 degrees of freedom. The nearest value to ten is t.001 Since Pt t and the t distribution is symmetrical, and the values of t get larger as the significance level gets If we have to use the smaller, we conclude pvalue .001 . 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Assume that when we take our survey we find x 20200 . t 20200 20000 1 , and we want Pt 1 200 The easy way is to check the results on the computer. t Curve with 63 Degrees of Freedom and Standard Deviation 1.01626 The Area to the Left of 1 is 0.8394 0.4 Density 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -4 If we have to use the -3 -2 -1 0 Data A xis 1 2 3 4 t table, look at the line with 63 degrees of freedom. . The two nearest values to one are 63 63 t.20 0.847 and t.15 1.045 . Since Pt t we conclude that the area above 1 is between .20 and .15. But we want the area below 1, so we subtract these probabilities from 1 and get .80 pvalue .85 . Interpretation: If we want to return to traditional hypothesis testing, remember the following: The rule on p-value: If the p-value is less than the significance level (alpha) reject the null hypothesis; if the p-value is greater than or equal to the significance level, do not reject the null hypothesis. So, if .05 , we reject the null hypothesis if the sample mean is 19600 or 18000, but not if it is 19800 or 20200. Second example: A two-sided hypothesis. Assume that we are using the original two-sided problem. The problem statement is now “Test at the 5% significance level to see if the mean income is 20000.” H 0 : 20000 .05 Statement of problem as a hypothesis pair: H 1 : 20000 The test statistic will be the sample mean x taken from a sample of n 64 , and since the population mean is unknown we must use the t distribution with 64 – 1 = 63 degrees of freedom. Assume that we found s 1600 , which means that s x s 1600 200 . n 64 The Second Example Using Traditional hypothesis testing. Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19600 . Test Ratio Method: x 0 63 t , 0 20000 . Use a ‘Normal’ curve with a mean at zero, a value of tn1 t.025 1.998 2 sx cutting off a 2.5% tail on the left side of zero and a value of t n1 t 63 1.998 cutting off a 2.5% tail on the right side of zero. t 2 .025 19600 20000 2 is in the lower ‘reject’ region, so reject the null hypothesis. 200 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Critical Value Method for x : The formula table says xcv 0 t s x . We use xcv 0 ts x 20000 1.998 200 20000 399 .6 . 2 Make a diagram with 20000 in the middle showing a 95% ‘accept’ region above 19600.4 and below 20399.6. Show one 2.5% ‘reject’ region below 19600.4 and another above 20399.6. Since x 19600 falls in the lower ‘reject’ region, reject the null hypothesis. Confidence Interval Method: The confidence interval becomes x tn1 x 19600 1.998200 19600 399.6 or 19200.4 19999.9 . Make a diagram – you may use either 20000 or 19600 as the middle but you are much better off using 19600. To represent the confidence interval shade the area between 19200.4 and 19999.9. Since 20000 is not on this interval, the confidence interval and the null hypothesis contradict one another, so reject the null hypothesis. The Second Example Using p-values. In the case of a 2-sided test ‘extreme’ means either way above or way below 20000. Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19600 . 20400 is just as far from 20000 as 19600, so we want the probability that the sample mean is above 20400 or below 19600. In practice, we just double a p-value in the case of a 2-sided hypothesis. The p-value is 2Px 19600 . But we have seen in the previous problem that a sample mean of 19600 is the same as 19600 20000 t 2 . So the p-value is 2Pt 2 . We have already found, using the computer, that 200 Pt 2 .0249 . Using the t table we found that .01 Pt 2 .025 . If we use the computer results, pvalue .0498 , and, if we use the table results, .02 pvalue .05 . If we want to return to traditional hypothesis testing, remember the following: The rule on p-value: If the p-value is less than the significance level (alpha) reject the null hypothesis; if the p-value is greater than or equal to the significance level, do not reject the null hypothesis. So, if .05 , we (barely) reject the null hypothesis. Third Example: A right-sided Problem (The reverse of the First Example) Statement of problem: The problem statement is either “Test at the 5% significance level to see if the mean income is at most 20000,” or “Test at the 5% significance level to see if the mean income is above 20000.” These statements are opposites. Since the first statement contains an implicit equality, it must be a null hypothesis. The second statement does not contain an equality, so in must be an alternate hypotheses. H : 20000 .05 Statement of problem as a hypothesis pair: 0 H 1 : 20000 The test statistic will be the sample mean x taken from a sample of n 64 , and since the population mean is unknown we must use the t distribution with 64 – 1 = 63 degrees of freedom. Assume that we found s 1600 , which means that s x s 1600 200 . Common sense states that if the sample mean is below 20000, we will not reject the n 64 null hypothesis. Since I will use the same sample means that I used before, we will not reject the null hypothesis. Third Example Using Traditional hypothesis testing. Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19800 . Test Ratio Method: x 0 t , 0 20000 . If the sample mean is above 20000, the t statistic will be positive. Make a diagram sx showing a ‘Normal’ curve with a mean at zero and a value of t cutting off a 5% tail on the right side of zero. 19800 20000 63 1.669 , so the ‘reject’ region is above 1.669. t According to the t table tn1 t.05 1 200 is not in the ‘reject’ region, so do not reject the null hypothesis. 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Critical Value Method for x : The formula table says xcv t s x , but this is a formula for a 2-sided interval. Because the alternate 2 hypothesis says that the mean is above 20000, we want a critical value above 20000. It should be obvious that if our sample mean is above 20000, we would have no reason to reject the null hypothesis. We use x cv 0 ts x 20000 1.669 200 20333 .8 . Make a diagram with 20000 in the middle showing a 95% ‘accept’ region below 20333.8 and a 5% ‘reject’ region above 20333.8. Since x 19800 does not fall in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject the null hypothesis. Confidence Interval Method: The formula for a confidence interval for the mean is x t x , but a one-sided hypothesis requires a 2 one-sided confidence interval, and to have any value, the confidence interval must be in the same direction as the alternate hypothesis. The interval becomes x tn1 x 19800 1.669200 or 19466 .2 . Make a diagram – you may use 19800 as the middle. To represent the null hypothesis shade the area below 20000. To represent the confidence interval shade the area above 19466.2. Since these areas overlap, the confidence interval and the null hypothesis do not contradict one another, so do not reject the null hypothesis. Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19600 . Test Ratio Method: x 0 t , 0 20000 . Use the same ‘Normal’ curve as before with a mean at zero and a value of sx 19600 20000 63 tn1 t.05 1.669 cutting off a 5% tail on the right side of zero. t 2 is not in the 200 ‘reject’ region, so do not reject the null hypothesis. Critical Value Method for x : The formula table says xcv t s x , but this is a formula for a 2-sided interval. We want a critical value 2 above 20000, since it should be obvious that if our sample mean is below 20000, we would have no reason to reject the null hypothesis. We use x cv 0 ts x 20000 1.669 200 20333 .8 . Make the same diagram with 20000 in the middle showing a 95% ‘accept’ region below 20333.8 and a 5% ‘reject’ region above 20333.8. Since x 19600 does not fall in the ‘reject’ region, do not reject the null hypothesis. Confidence Interval Method: The confidence interval becomes x tn1 x 19600 1.669200 or 19266.2 . Make a diagram – you may use 19600 as the middle. To represent the null hypothesis shade the area below 20000. To represent the confidence interval shade the area above 19266.2. Since these areas overlap, the confidence interval and the null hypothesis do not contradict one another, so do not reject the null hypothesis. Third Example Using p-values. A p-value is a measure of the credibility of the null hypothesis and is defined as the probability that a test statistic or lower low ratio as extreme as or more extreme than the observed statistic or ratio could occur, assuming that the null high higher hypothesis is true. In this case, values are extreme, relative to the null hypothesis H 0 : 20000 , if the sample mean is way above 20000. The easiest way to measure the probability is with the test ratio t t , call it t1 and then find Pt t1 . x 0 . We find the value of sx 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) 19800 20000 1 , and we want Pt 1 . We have 200 already found Pt 1 .1606 on the computer, or .15 Pt 1 .20 using the t table. We should thus realize that if p value Pt 1 , we can subtract the above probabilities from 1 to get pvalue 1 .1606 .8394 or 1 .20 pvalue 1 .15 or .80 pvalue .85 . 18000 20000 Assume that when we take our survey we find x 18000 . t 10 , and we want Pt 10 . We 200 have already found, using the computer, that Pt 10 0 . This implies that pvalue Pt 10 1. If we want to Assume that when we take our survey we find x 19800 . t use the t table, recall that in the first example we found Pt 10 .001 so pvalue Pt 10 1 .001 .999 . These high p-values indicate that, no matter what the significance level is, we will not reject the null hypothesis. The above tests using Minitab Minitab Run: The following run involves the creation of a data set called x19800.mtw that consists of four samples that cover all the tests shown in the above examples. The data set will consist of four columns, each of which represents a sample of 64. These columns have the means given in their names. I will then take all four data sets and put them through the tests given in the First through Third examples above. Explanations of commands and results are given in red. ————— 10/12/2006 8:41:43 PM ———————————————————— Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help. As soon as Minitab opened, I used the pull down menu Editor < Enable commands to enable me to use the Session window as well as the pulldown menu to initiate commands. MTB > Random 64 c1; SUBC> Normal 19800 1600. The above command was initiated through the pulldown menu Calc < Random data < Normal and then setting the options as a mean of 19800 and a standard deviation of 1600. It can also be entered directly into the ‘Session’ window. The created sample was put into c1 (column 1). MTB > #Roger Even Bove The pound sign introduces a remark – in this case, my name. MTB > round c1 c1 The above command was typed into the Session window after a MTB> prompt. It rounds the numbers to the nearest whole number. It can be used with multiplying and dividing by multiples of ten to limit the number of places to the right of the decimal point. MTB > describe c1 Descriptive Statistics: C1 Variable C1 N 64 N* 0 Mean 19756 SE Mean 206 StDev 1648 Minimum 16083 Q1 18735 Median 19749 Q3 21003 Maximum 23166 The above command was used to check on the mean and standard deviation of c1. Since the standard deviation was too 0.9709 . The ‘describe’ command prints out as N the sample size, as N* the large, I multiplied the column by 1600 1648 number of missing values, the sample mean, the standard error of the mean, the standard deviation, the lowest number in the data, the first quartile, the median, the third quartile, and the largest number in the data. MTB > let c2=44+.9709*c1 The above command multiplied the first column by .9798 and added 44 to raise the mean and put the result s in C2. I should have done the addition later. MTB > describe c2 Descriptive Statistics: C2 Variable C2 N 64 N* 0 Mean 19225 SE Mean 200 StDev 1600 Minimum 15659 Q1 18234 Median 19218 Q3 20436 Maximum 22536 The above command was used to check on the mean and standard deviation of c2. The standard deviation is now right, but the mean is too small. 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) MTB > let c3=c2+575 The above command added 19800 – 19225 = 575 to c2 and put the result in c3. MTB > describe c3 Descriptive Statistics: C3 Variable C3 N 64 N* 0 Mean 19800 SE Mean 200 StDev 1600 Minimum 16234 Q1 18809 Median 19793 Q3 21011 Maximum 23111 The above command was used to check on the mean and standard deviation of c3. The mean and standard deviation are now the same as in the p-value part of the First example. The data set was saved as x19800.mtw using the File pulldown menu. Results for: x19800.MTW MTB > WSave "C:\Documents and Settings\75RBOVE\My Documents\Bove'sMinitab\x19800.MTW"; SUBC> Replace. Saving file as: 'C:\Documents and Settings\75RBOVE\My Documents\Bove'sMinitab\x19800.MTW' MTB > let c1=c3 MTB > let c1 = c1-1800 MTB > let c2=c3-200 MTB > let c4 = c3+400 The above commands were used adjust the means in c1, c2 and c4 by adding the desired differences in sample means to the data in c3. The columns were named for their means. MTB > describe c1-c4 Descriptive Statistics: x18000, x19600, x19800, x20200 Variable x18000 x19600 x19800 x20200 N 64 64 64 64 N* 0 0 0 0 Mean 18000 19600 19800 20200 SE Mean 200 200 200 200 StDev 1600 1600 1600 1600 Minimum 14434 16034 16234 16634 Q1 17009 18609 18809 19209 Median 17993 19593 19793 20193 Q3 19211 20811 21011 21411 Maximum 21311 22911 23111 23511 Now I had four samples with the sample means used in the examples and identical sample standard deviations. MTB > Save "C:\Documents and Settings\75RBOVE\My Documents\Bove'sMinitab\x19800.MTW"; SUBC> Replace. Saving file as: 'C:\Documents and Settings\75RBOVE\My Documents\Bove'sMinitab\x19800.MTW' Existing file replaced. First Example – a left sided test. MTB > Onet c1; SUBC> Test 20000; SUBC> Alternative -1. One-Sample T: x18000 Test of mu = 20000 vs < 20000 Variable x18000 N 64 Mean 18000.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Upper Bound 18333.9 T -10.00 P 0.000 The Onet command stands for one-sample t and is accessed by using the pulldown menu Stat<Basic Statistics<1sample t. or by using Session commands as above. By itself, Onet will produce a 95% confidence level. Using the pulldown menu after 1-sample t is chosen, ‘perform hypothesis test’ can be checked and a mean supplied and then under ‘options’ the confidence level and the direction of the alternative hypothesis can be selected. In the command form above, ‘Test 20000’ sets a hypothesis test with a null hypothesis mean of 20000 and ‘Alter(native) -1’ makes the H 0 : 20000 alternative hypothesis ‘less than.’ Our hypotheses for this entire first example are thus . H 1 : 20000 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) The results printed out are sample size n 64 , sample mean x 18000 , standard deviation s 1600 .4 , standard s error s x 200 , a one-sided 95% confidence interval in the same direction as the alternate hypothesis n x 0 18000 20000 n 1 x t .05 s x 18333 .9 , a t ratio t 10 and a p-value sx 200 Px 18000 Pt 10 0 . The p-value is the area under the zero-centered t curve to the left of -10. MTB > SUBC> SUBC> Onet c2; Test 20000; Alternative -1. One-Sample T: x19600 Test of mu = 20000 vs < 20000 Variable x19600 N 64 Mean 19600.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Upper Bound 19933.9 T -2.00 P 0.025 This is, of course exactly the same command and the same test, but now the sample mean is closer to 20000. The pvalue Px 19600 Pt 2 .025 , the area to the left of -2 under the t curve, is considerably larger. MTB > SUBC> SUBC> Onet c3; Test 20000; Alternative -1. One-Sample T: x19800 Test of mu = 20000 vs < 20000 Variable x19800 N 64 Mean 19800.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Upper Bound 20133.9 T -1.00 P 0.161 The sample mean has moved even closer to 20000 and the area to the left of -1.00 is a p value large that we cannot reject the null hypothesis even at the 10% significance level. MTB > SUBC> SUBC> Pt 1 .161 so Onet c4; Test 20000; Alternative -1. One-Sample T: x20200 Test of mu = 20000 vs < 20000 Variable x20200 N 64 Mean 20200.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Upper Bound 20533.9 T 1.00 P 0.839 The sample mean has moved to the right of 20000 and the p-value Px 20200 Pt 1 .839 , the area to the left of 1.00 would be represented as an area under a zero-centered curve that covers the entire area to the left of zero plus a large part of the area to the right of zero. The high p-value should be no surprise, since we found Pt 1 .161 in the last test. By symmetry, Pt 1 Pt 1 .161 . So Pt 1 1 Pt 1 1 .161 .839 . 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Second Example – a two-sided test MTB > SUBC> Onet c1; Test 20000. One-Sample T: x18000 Test of mu = 20000 vs not = 20000 Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean x18000 64 18000.0 1600.4 200.0 95% CI (17600.2, 18399.7) T -10.00 P 0.000 The Onet command has been modified by removing the ‘alter’ part of the command so that the test becomes 2-sided. H : 20000 Our hypotheses for this entire second example are thus 0 . H 1 : 20000 The results printed out are sample size n 64 , sample mean x 18000 , standard deviation s 1600 .4 , standard s n 1 error s x s x , a t ratio 200 , a two-sided 95% confidence interval x t .025 n x 0 18000 20000 t 10 and a p-value 2Px 18000 Pt 10 Pt 10 20 0 . The p-value is sx 200 the areas under the zero-centered t curve the left of -10 and to the right of 10. It is thus double the area we got for a sample mean of 18000 in the first example. MTB > SUBC> Onet c2; Test 20000. One-Sample T: x19600 Test of mu = 20000 vs not = 20000 Variable x19600 N 64 Mean 19600.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% CI (19200.2, 19999.7) T -2.00 P 0.050 The p-value is the areas under the zero-centered t curve the left of -2 and to the right of 2. It is thus double the area we got for a sample mean of 19600 in the first example. MTB > SUBC> Onet c3; Test 20000. One-Sample T: x19800 Test of mu = 20000 vs not = 20000 Variable x19800 MTB > SUBC> N 64 Mean 19800.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% CI (19400.2, 20199.7) T -1.00 95% CI (19800.2, 20599.7) T 1.00 P 0.321 Onet c4; Test 20000. One-Sample T: x20200 Test of mu = 20000 vs not = 20000 Variable x20200 N 64 Mean 20200.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 P 0.321 The p-value is the area under the zero-centered t curve the left of -1 and the area to the right of 1. It is thus not double the area we got for a sample mean of 20200 in the first example. The reason is that the sample mean of 20200 is now above 20000. If we use the ‘as extreme or more extreme’ definition, the sample mean is extreme because it is above 20000. We can say pvalue 2Px 20200 Pt 1 Pt 1 2.161 .321 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Third Example – a right-sided test. MTB > Onet c1; SUBC> test 20000; SUBC> alter 1. One-Sample T: x18000 Test of mu = 20000 vs > 20000 Variable x18000 N 64 Mean 18000.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Lower Bound 17666.0 T -10.00 P 1.000 The Onet command has been modified again by use of the ‘alter(native) 1’ subcommand, which makes the alternative H : 20000 hypothesis ‘greater than.’ Our hypotheses for this entire first example are thus 0 . H 1 : 20000 The results printed out are sample size n 64 , sample mean x 18000 , standard deviation s 1600 .4 , standard s error s x 200 , a one-sided 95% confidence interval in the same direction as the alternate hypothesis n x 0 18000 20000 n 1 x t .05 s x 17666 .0 , a t ratio t 10 and a p-value sx 200 Px 18000 Pt 10 1 . The p-value is the area under the zero-centered t curve to the right of -10. In the first part of the first example, we found Px 18000 Pt 10 0 . So it should be no surprise that Px 18000 1 Px 18000 1 Pt 10 1 0 1 . MTB > Onet c2; SUBC> test 20000; SUBC> alter 1. One-Sample T: x19600 Test of mu = 20000 vs > 20000 Variable x19600 N 64 Mean 19600.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Lower Bound 19266.0 T -2.00 P 0.975 SE Mean 200.0 95% Lower Bound 19466.0 T -1.00 P 0.839 MTB > Onet c3; SUBC> test 20000; SUBC> alter 1. One-Sample T: x19800 Test of mu = 20000 vs > 20000 Variable x19800 N 64 Mean 19800.0 StDev 1600.4 In the two tests above, we could have predicted the p-value from the results in the First example. The values of the sample mean are obviously in accord with the null hypothesis, 20000 .so that a p-value above .5 can be expected. 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) MTB > Onet c4; SUBC> test 20000; SUBC> alter 1. One-Sample T: x20200 Test of mu = 20000 vs > 20000 Variable x20200 N 64 Mean 20200.0 StDev 1600.4 SE Mean 200.0 95% Lower Bound 19866.0 T 1.00 P 0.161 MTB > Save "C:\Documents and Settings\75RBOVE\My Documents\Bove'sMinitab\x19800.MTW"; SUBC> Replace. Saving file as: 'C:\Documents and Settings\75RBOVE\My Documents\Bove'sMinitab\x19800.MTW' Existing file replaced. Unfortunately the data set used in the run above could not be saved. For a previous version of this paper, a similar data set with a sample mean of 19800 was created and stored as 2b.mtb. It appears below. x 21600.7 21632.5 17681.6 20698.0 22062.0 20893.8 20158.2 18283.7 19239.5 22797.4 21192.6 17492.7 21207.4 19583.5 19505.5 23181.6 19500.2 17459.4 16739.8 23308.3 19274.1 17918.9 22850.6 20699.6 19042.8 20001.0 19101.5 19322.1 19524.5 19406.7 19254.7 22663.6 20375.1 18117.0 18189.4 21869.6 20280.6 18819.2 18284.8 19875.8 18986.3 18200.6 19122.4 19061.2 16098.3 19441.1 20992.1 20375.9 20695.9 17350.3 21222.1 20476.2 17722.9 20010.4 20566.7 21815.2 20515.5 19953.3 20956.3 19732.8 19374.0 19002.4 18422.6 18028.2 How the p-values were found using Minitab You already have an example above of how to do the entire problem using Minitab. To just check the values of t , I used my tareaA macro after first using the ‘file’ pulldown menu to retrieve the nonsense worksheet ‘notmuch,’ which is in the same file as the macro. As soon as Minitab opened, I used the pull down menu Editor < Enable commands to enable me to use the Session window as well as the pulldown menu to initiate commands. ————— 2/8/2005 7:01:16 PM ———————————————————— Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help. Results for: notmuch.MTW MTB > WOpen "C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\notmuch.MTW". Retrieving worksheet from file: 'C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\notmuch.MTW' Worksheet was saved on Fri Jan 21 2005 MTB > %tareaA Executing from file: tareaA.MAC Graphic display of t curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 63 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) y 252onesx0 10/20/06 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Enter the value for which you want the area to the left. DATA> -1 ...working... t Curve Area Data Display mode 0 median 0 MTB > %TareaA Executing from file: TareaA.MAC Graphic display of t curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 63 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the left. DATA> -2 ...working... t Curve Area Data Display mode 0 median 0 MTB > %tareaA Executing from file: tareaA.MAC Graphic display of t curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 63 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the left. DATA> -10 ...working... t Curve Area Data Display mode 0 median 0 MTB > %tareaA Executing from file: tareaA.MAC Graphic display of t curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 63 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the left. DATA> 1 ...working... t Curve Area Data Display mode 0 median 0 © 2006 R. E. Bove