公司理財研討
MA0A0204 王詩婷
MA0A0205 許睿烜
497A0009 陳欣妤
2.4 How Analysts Value Firms：
An Illustrative Example
Analyst Mary Meeker
2.4 如何分析企業價值：舉例說明
分析師Mary Meeker
In the Spring of 2003, 24 analysts followed
eBay. Among these, the most well known was
Mary Meeker from the firm Morgan Stanley.
Mary Meeker’s analysis of eBay used a series
of valuation techniques, each of which gave a
different target price for eBay.
在2003年的春天，24名分析師跟隨eBay。其中，
最知名的是從Morgan Stanley公司來的Mary
Meeker。Mary Meeker分析eBay是採用一系列的
估價技術，對eBay的每一項都給予不同的目標價
格。
Her April 2003 report offers a rich set of
insights into how analysts apply these various
techniques.
在2003年4月她的報告中，對分析師如何應用各種
技術提供了一套豐富的見解。
Behavioral Pitfalls
Wall-Marting of the Web
行為陷阱
網路Wall-Marting化
During the late 1990s Mary Meeker was a
security analyst at Morgan Stanley and was one of
the highest-paid analysts on Wall Street, having
earned approximately $15 million in 1999 and $23
million in 2000. At the time, she placed very high
valuations on some internet firms, and as a result
came to be called Queen of the internet.
在20世紀90年代後期，Mary Meeker在Morgan
Stanley是位安全分析師並且在華爾街是薪酬最高的
分析師之一，在1999年賺得約1500萬在2000年是
2300萬。當時，她放置在一些互聯網公司的估價非常
高，因此後來被稱為網際網路。
In 1998, Time Magazine interviewed Mary
Meeker, asking her to justify the high
valuations of internet companies that prevailed
at the time. She began by stating that the
development of the commercial internet was
“the biggest new technology cycle ever.”
在1998年，時代雜誌採訪了Mary Meeker，問她
理由，當時盛行的互聯網公司的高估價。她開始指
出商業互聯網的發展是“最大的新技術循環不斷”
Continuing, she pointed out that just as the
traditional retailer Wal-Mart came to dominate
the retail sector, Web-based counterparts would
emerge and dominate internet commerce. Mary
Meeker described the phenomenon as the “WalMarting of the Web.”
繼續，她指出正如傳統的零售商Wal-Mart來主導零售
業，基於網站的同行也將會出現支配互聯網電子商務。
Mary Meeker將這種現象稱為“網站上的WalMarting”
Wal –Mart had built its business by beating its
competition in regard to convenience, product
selection, and low prices. She argued that the
internet provided the opportunity for other
firms to follow Wal-Mart, but on the Web.
Wal –Mart已經建立的業務，產品的選擇，價格低
廉，擊敗了在購物方便方面的競爭。她認為，互聯
網所提供的機會，對於其他公司效仿Wal –Mart，
但是是在網站上。
In 2000, after period of excessive optimism, if
not irrational exuberance, the prices of many
internet stocks fell dramatically. This event has
been described as the bursting of the dot-com
bubble. In May 2002 Fortune magazine placed
Mary Meeker’s picture on their cover and asked if
investors could ever trust Wall Street again.
在2000年，過度樂觀的時期之後，如果不是非理性繁
榮，很多互聯網股票價格大幅下跌。這個事件已經被
描述為網路泡沫的破滅。2002年5月財富雜誌在他們
封面上放入Mary Meeker的圖片，並詢問如果投資者
能夠重新再信任華爾街。
In the wake of the collapse in stock prices,
regulators from New York State’s attorney
general’s office and the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission launched a major
investigation. Among those investigated was Mary
Meeker. In 2003, the attorney general’s office
and the SEC criticized her valuations as excessive,
but they did not bring charges against her.
在股價大跌之後，從紐約州的總檢察長辦公室到美國
證券和交易委員會(SEC)的監管機構都發起了一項重大
調查。在那些人之中被調查的是Mary Meeker。在
2003年，總檢察長辦公室和SEC過度批評她的估價，
但是他們並沒有對她提出起訴。
On February 23, 2004, The Wall Street Journal
ran a feature titled “Ah, the 1990s” updating the
fates of key Wall Street personalities from the
1990s stock market bubble. Regarding Mary
Meeker, the article notes that she was recently
named Morgan Stanley’s coleader of tech-sector
research.
2004年2月23日，華爾街日報發表了標題“啊，20世
紀90年代” 修訂從20世紀90年代股市泡沫的關鍵是
華爾街人士的命運。關於Mary Meeker，本文指出她
最近被任命為Morgan Stanley高科技部門研究合作的
領導人。
Mary Meeker’s
Target Prices for eBay
EBay Mary Meeker
目標價格
At the time Mary Meeker released her April
2003 report, eBay’s price was $89.22. She used
all three valuation heuristics described earlier, as
well as a discounted cash flow (DCF) computation.
當時，Mary Meeker在2003年4月發布了她的報告，
eBay的價格是89.22美元。她使用三個計價捷思如前
所述，以及現金流量折現法DCF計算
Exhibit 2.1 provides a summary of the components
of Mary Meeker’s target price analysis. For each
of the first three heuristics, Meeker computed a
low, high, and intermediate guess. She then
averaged these together with her DCF valuation
to arrive at a target price of $106 per share.
圖表2.1Mary Meeker的目標價格分析提供了一個總
結。對於前三個捷思，Meeker計算低，高、 中級推
測。她平均這些計價，到達了每股106美元的目標價
格。
Exhibit 2.1
Summary of Components in Mary Meeker's Target
Price Analysis of e Bay
Technique
Downside
Upside Base
P/E
$74
$111
$84
PEG
45
91
68
Price-to-sales
97
210
147
Discounted cash flow
117
Average
$104
Upside adjusted average
$106
Exhibit 2.2
Valuation Methodologies in Mary Meeker's Target Price Analysis of eBay
Year
2002
2003E
2004E
2005E
EPS at 32% growth
$0.86
$1.14
$1.50
$1.98
EPS at 38% growth
$0.86
$1.19
$1.64
$2.26
GMS/share at 38%
grown
$39.53
$54.55
$75.27
$103.88
103
63
47
33
P/E
Method
P/E
PEG
Price-tosales
Price-to-
GMS
Target
Target
Sales per
Price
Price
Share
Dec-04
(Discounted)
$90
$84
72
68
156
147
P/E
PEG
Sales
Ratio
Ratio
Ratio
40
EPS
Growth
$2.26
1.5
1.5
1.5
2.26
32
$103.88
In Exhibit 2.2, an E after a year (for example,
2004E) designates that the numbers are
estimates, not actual values. In all cases target
prices were computed for year-end 2004 and then
discounted back to mid-2004.
在表2.2中，經過一年的E（下例如，2004E）指定的
數字是估計，而不是實際值。在所有情況下的目標價
格計算，截至2004年底，然後貼現至2004年年中。
To arrive at her target price for December
2004,Meeker used a P/E value of 40 for 2005,
the midpoint of 47 and 33 shown in the table.
For sales, she used the gross global sales activity
on all eBay Web sites, called gross merchandise
sales (GMS).
2004 年 12 月得出她的目標價，Meeker用於2005年
的33和2004年的47目標價中間點，顯示P / E值40。
對於銷售，她用eBay的網站上的總全球銷售，被稱為
商品銷售總額（GMS）。
As can be seen in Exhibit 2.1, Mary Meeker used a
DCF approach, applied to eBay’s free cash flows.
This computation comes closest to traditional
textbook technique and is the only one of the
four that purports to derive the target price in
terms of intrinsic or fundamental value.
表2.1中可以看到，Mary Meeker使用的DCF方法，
適用於eBay的自由現金流量。
這種計算最接近傳統教科書，四個計價中唯一最基本
能得出目標價格。
A firm generates positive free cash flows when
its after-tax cash flows from operations are
positive and it does not spend all those after-tax
flows acquiring working capital and fixed assets.
一家公司產生正的自由現金流量時，當稅後營業活動
的現金流量(OCF)是正的，這些稅後營業活動的現金
流量(OCF)沒有花費在營運資本和固定資產。
The difference between after-tax cash flow from
operations and investment in working capital and
fixed assets is paid out to the firm’s owners.
營業活動的現金流量（OCF）與營運資本和固定資產
投資的區別是在付給該公司的股東。
Free cash flows are akin to dividends, but are paid
to all investors, meaning debtholders and
stockholders. Just as the present value of the
future expected dividend stream comprises the
value of the firm’s equity, the present value of
the firm’s expected free cash flows comprise the
value of the entire firm.
自由現金流量類似於股息，但支付給所有投資者，是
債權人和股東。正如對未來的預期股息的現值，包括
該公司的股權價值，公司的預期自由現金流量的現值
占整個公司的價值。
Exhibit 2.3
Free Cash Flow Computation in Mary Meeker's Target Price Analysis of eBay
EBITDA
Taxes
Cange in
200
0
200
1
200 2003
2 E
2004
E
2005
E
2006
E
2007
E
2008
E
2009
E
2010
E
84,
072
229
,43
8
444
,614
723,
735
1,00
5,27
6
1,401,
682
1,853
,230
2,426
,297
3,110,
990
3,985
,085
4,982
,032
-
-
-
-
-
140,1
68
370,6
46
849,2
04
1,088
,846
1,394
,780
1,743
,711
(47
582
)
(41
091
)
392
32
(267
92)
6849
(5869
5)
9709
(5209
6)
7375
(5327
8)
4105
49,
753
57,
420
138,
670
188,
908
190,
000
190,0
00
190,0
00
190,0
00
190,0
00
190,0
00
190,0
00
13,2
63
130,
927
345
,176
508,
035
822,
125
1,012,
819
1,302
,292
1,334
,997
1,839
,519
2,347
,027
3,052
,426
2011E
on
working
capital
Capital
expendit
ures
Free
cash
flow
65,32
1,907
Target Price-Dec 31, 2003
Present value eBay
free cash flows
Less debt
Plus cash
eBay's full value
Shares
outstanding('000)
Discount rate
Future growth rate
DCF per share value
$36,478,759
$79,592
$2,280,857
$38,680,023
330,259
12%
7%
$117
In her April 2003 report, Mary Meeker forecast
free cash flows through the end of 2010. She
used a terminal value to capture the free cash
flows that would occur after 2010 and discounted
these at a rate of 12 percent.
Mary Meeker在她2003年4月的報告，預計2010年底
通過自由現金流量。她用一個終值抓取自由的現金流
量將出現2010年後，這些折現率是12％。
In Exhibit 2.3, she obtained her $65.3 billion
terminal value in 2011 by assuming that free cash
flows would grow at the rate of 7 percent from
2011 on, and then valued the future expected
free cash flow stream beginning in 2011 using the
constant-growth-rate perpetuity formula.
圖表2.3中，2011年她獲得了65.3億美元的終值，假
設，從2011年，自由現金流量將7％的固定成長率，
然後預計未來自由現金流量值在2011年開始增長採用
永續年金現值公式。
Specifically, she forecast that free cash flows in
2011 would be $3,266,096=1.07*$3,052,426. She
then applied the perpetuity formula:
具體來說，她預計在2011年的自由現金流量將
$3,266,096=1.07*$3,052,426。然後，她採用了永續
年金現值的公式：
PV=
$3,266,096 =$65,321,907
0.120.07
As shown in Exhibit 2.3, that sum came to $36.5
billion. Then she added eBay’s $2.3 billion cash
holdings to arrive at the value of the firm as a
whole and subtracted the value of eBay’s $79
million in debt to arrive at the value of eBay’s
equity. The net result was $38 billion, which
Meeker called eBay’s “full value.”
正如表2.3所示，該款項來到365億美元。然後她補充
說：eBay的23億美元的現金持有到達公司作為一個整
體的價值和eBay的7900萬美元債務的價值相減到達
eBay的股票價值。最終的結果是380億美元，其中
Meeker稱eBay的“完整的價值。”
Dividing full value by eBay’s shares outstanding
(330 million) lead to a target value of about $117
per share at year-end 2003. In using this amount,
she did not take the future value of the $117 to
mid-2004.
完整的價值除以 eBay 流通在外股數（33億元），導
致2003年底的目標價值每股117美元。2004 年中沒
有到這117 美元金額。
2.5 BIASES 偏見
Biases and Heuristics
偏見與捷思
At the end of June 2004 , eBay’s stock price
reached $180 (on a presplit basis ), well above
Meekers’ target price of $106.
在2004年6月底，eBay的股價達到$180 (分割前為
基礎)，高於Meeker的目標價格$106。
At year-end 2004 its stock price closed 2004 (
pre-split ) at $232, and its forward P/E for
eBay was 70, well above Meeker’s forecast of
47. Those facts alone in no way indicate that
Meeker’s analysis was biased.
在2004年年底股價收盤(分割前)為$232，和eBay的
P/E為70，高於Meeker預測的47。這些事實沒辦法
指出Meeker分析是有偏見的。
The rate of return associated with a target
price of $106 lies above Meeker’s discount rate
of 12 percent.
實際價格$106以折現率12%推估目標價格
In this respect , $106 would be upwardly biased ,
if in April 2003 Meeker judged eBay’s stock to
have been fairly priced. Of course, in April 2003
Meeker might have judged eBay’s stock to be
undervalued.
在這方面，如果在2003年4月Meeker認為eBay股價
是公平的價格$106美元將會往上漲。當然，在2003
年4月Meerker認為eBay股價是被低估的。
The P/E heuristic is the approach most
favored by analysts.
以P/E捷思是接近分析師贊成的方法。
Meeker’s range for the P/E target price was
$74 to $111. Her base case estimate of $84 lies
below the April 2003 price of $89.22 and
therefore gives rise to a negative return.
Meeker目標價格範圍為$74到$111。她的基本估計
是$84在2003年4月價格$89.22之下，因此是上漲的
負報酬。
The PEG heuristic produces a value range that is
more negative and is therefore even worse.
以PEG捷思產生的價格範圍是負數因此更差的。
Unless Meeker judged eBay stock to have been
overvalued at the time, it is safe to conclude
that the P/E heuristic or the PEG heuristic, or
both, produced downward biased estimates of
future value.
除非Meeker認為eBay股票被高估，它是安全的結
論是以P/E捷思或PEG捷思，或兩者皆是，產生向下
偏誤估計的未來價格。
Moreover, the assumptions that underlie the two
techniques are not consistent. The P/E heuristic
target price computation is premised on a growth
rate of 38 percent, whereas the PEG heuristic
target price computation is premised on a growth
rate of 32percent.
此外，這兩種技術基礎假設是不一致。P/E捷 思
目標價格計算成長比率為38%，反之，PEG捷思
目標價格計算成長比率為32%。
Moreover, for her PEG calculation, Meeker
appears to have used an EPS number of $1.50
for 2004 rather than 2005. Actually, she used
$1.42 for EPS, which corresponds to $1.50
discounted back to mid-2004, but which she
listed as expected cash earnings for the year
2003.
此外，她的PEG計算，Meeker使用2004年的
EPS$1.50而不是2005年。實際上，她使用EPS為
$1.42，如她預期2003年的現金收益推算至2004年
中期$1.50 。
The target price range of $97 to $210 based on
the price-to-sales ratio might well be biased
upward. The average of this range produces a
return of 63 percent, far above the required
return (discount rate) of 12 percent.
目標價格範圍在$97到$210基於價格銷售比率將會
向上偏。在此範圍內的平均產生63％的回報，遠遠
高於要求回報率12％（貼現率）。