Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Beyond Kyoto, Aarhus, 6 March 2009
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE MITIGATION
Nadia Scialabba
Senior Environment Officer
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Climate influences agriculture
1. Climate change is a challenge in the
twenty-first century, also for food systems
Some facts
• 1.4 billion ha
for crop
cultivation
• more than
2.5 billion ha
for pasture
extreme
precipitation ...
• 4 billion ha
forested land
(of which 5%
plantations)
 ~ 60% Earth
= less reliable rainfall surface
... extended drought periods
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Agriculture influences climate
2. Agriculture, rural livelihoods,
sustainable management of natural
resources and food security are linked
Burning
Tillage
uncontrolled
grazing
= destruction
of soil organic
matter
3. Successful adaptation and mitigation
responses can be achieved within the
goals of World Food Summit, MDGs
and UNFCCC
Some facts
• Agriculture,
including forestry,
emits ~ 32 % of
global GHG:
• 25 % CO2 , largely
from deforestation
• 50 % CH4, rice
and enteric
fermentation
• > 75 % N2O,
largely from
fertilizers
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Main mitigation strategies
Forestry:
1. Reduce deforestation and degradation of tropical
forests (REDD)
2. Promote Sustainable Forest Management (SFM)
3. Conduct Forest Restoration (FR), including
Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R)
Agriculture:
1. Improve agroforestry practices
2. Promote spatial and temporal integration of crop and
livestock (e.g. rotations of crops and corall)
3. Enhance soil carbon sequestration via soil biomass
restoration and reduced tillage
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Mitigation potential agriculture and forest
G tonnes CO2e / year
Global emissions
15-25
Agriculture
1.5-5
Methane, N2O
0.3-1.5
Agroforestry
0.5-2
Agricultural soils
0.5-1.5
Forest
2.5-12
REDD
1-4
SFM
1-5
FR
0.5-3
Bioenergy
0.1-1
Total
4-18
Global reductions potential in 2030 correspond to those needed to achieve stabilization of
atmospheric concentrations between 450-550 ppm CO2, under a mid-range IPCC SRES
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Carbon sequestration of croplands
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Global GHG emissions by agriculture
Manure handling
CH4 and N2O
7%
Paddy rice CH4
11%
Fertilisers N2O
38%
5.1 - 6.1 Gt
Biomass burning
CH4 and N2O
12%
CO2-eq yr-1
Enteric fermentation
CH4
32%
Emissions of the agricultural
sector (Smith et al., 2007)
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Agriculture can be carbon neutral
C-sequestration potential
on worlds permanent crop
area (0.4 t C ha-1 yr-1)
3%
No industrial N-fertilizers
10%
Reduction in N2O
emission
8%
C-sequestration potential
on worlds pasture area
(0.2 t C ha-1 yr-1)
44%
5.6 - 5.9
Gt CO2-eq yr-1
C-sequestration potential
on worlds arable land area
(0.4 t C ha-1 yr-1)
35%
GHG reduction and mitigation potential
in the agricultural sector (calculated by Niggli & Fließbach)
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Adaptation and mitigation synergies
1. Increase irrigation and fertilization to
1. maintain production in marginal semi-arid regions
2. enhance the ability of soils to sequester carbon
2. Under increased precipitation scenario,
shift from fallow systems to continuous
cultivation
3. Avoid deforestation, enhance forest
management, agroforestry and practices
conducive to soil carbon sequestration in
agricultural soils
By adapting
to climate
change and
climate
variability –
a necessity
to sustain
food
production –
agriculture
can
contribute to
climate
mitigation
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Agriculture and GHG reduction
(IPCC/AR4 recommendations)
1. Crop rotations and farming system
design
2. Nutrient and manure management
3. Livestock management, pasture and
fodder supply improvement
4. Maintaining fertile soils and
restoration of degraded lands
 Ecological and organic agriculture
offers such a multi-targeted and
multi-functional strategy
Currently
available
knowledge
and
technologies
would be
sufficient to
counter GHG
emissions of
the entire
agricultural
and forestry
sectors
combined
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Terrestrial Essential Climatic Variables
 ECV are 13 measurable terrestrial properties and
attributes to monitor the physical, biological and chemical
processes affecting climate
 Identified by GCOS and endorsed by the UNFCCC.
Recognized by GEO and official task of GEOSS.
• The Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) is
currently assessing the status of the development of
standards for each ECV in the terrestrial domain
Relevant to forest mapping and carbon tracking
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
River discharge
Lake Levels
Ground Water
Water Use
Snow Cover
Glaciers and Ice Caps
Permafrost and Seasonably
Frozen Ground
• Albedo
• Land Cover
• Fraction of Absorbed
Photosynthetically Active
Radiation (FAPAR)
• Leaf Area Index (LAI)
• Biomass
• Fire Disturbance
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Why terrestrial ECVs?
 To monitor climate change and its effects
 To implement and monitor effective
adaptation and mitigation strategies
 To implement and monitor policy and
international agreements
 To assess risk and vulnerability, water
access, food production, food security,
sustainable development
 To model scenarios and analyze potential
impacts of extreme events
 To assess availability and manage resources
 To understand the climate system (including atmospheric, hydrological,
biogeochemical and energy balances) and especially, determine the effects of
feedback or amplification mechanisms
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
FAO datasets for GHG inventories
• Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) includes
data on forest and other areas, growing stock, biomass
stock, Carbon stock, forest fires, wood removals
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
FAO datasets for GHG inventories
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
FAO datasets for GHG inventories
AFRICOVER:
East Africa Module
To:
• assess carbon
sources and
sinks
• evaluate the
potential for
carbon
sequestration
• evaluate the
potential for
reducing
emissions
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Conclusions (yes, we can)
1. From being a problem, agriculture can become a major
solution in addressing climate change
2. Farming may be climate neutral, as 80% of agricultural
emissions can be compensated by soil carbon
sequestration through ecological/organic management
3. Market mechanisms should encourage local food
supply chains and responsible consumption
4. Adequate financial mechanisms are required to
encourage long-term investments in soil rehabilitation
(e.g. multi-lateral system for climate-friendly farming?)
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Conclusions (yes, we must)
1. The Post-Kyoto mechanism must seriously address
agriculture and relevant assessment methodologies
2. Beyond 2050, land-based mitigation from avoided
deforestation, agroforestry and soil carbon
sequestration in agricultural soils, necessary to
stabilize emissions in the short term, would have
largely reached their potential
3. This entails an urgent need to invest in the
development of new green technologies and land
management options that mitigate emissions of GHG
while making agriculture carbon neutral
Natural Resources Management and Environment (NR)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Beyond Kyoto, Aarhus, 5-7 March 2009
For detailed info:
2008 Summit webpage: www.fao.org/foodclimate
Climate webpage: www.fao.org/climatechange
Organic webpage: www.fao.org/organicag