DIFFERENCE OF TWO ECONOMIES CHINA <> AMERICA Members Damar M997Z229 Chayaporn M997Z224 My Hanh Binh M997Z222 M997Z220 M997Z248 OUTLINE I. Introduction II. China -Government Policy -Investment in China III. United States -House Bubble - Collapse of house bubble and effects on economy -Deflation IV. Difference between China and United States V. Conclusion CHINA China Government Policy Mao Zedong (Chairman of the People's Republic of China 1954-1959): Communism Past 1978-end of the’90s • Socialism • Private Company • Turn away from Interventionist industrial Policy Present end of the’90s-2010 • Socialism • State-Owned Company • Interventionist industrial Policy Investment in China Advantages • Wealthy • Cheap material, labor cost • Population: 1.3 billion Disadvantages • Poverty • Conservative thinking • Connection factor • Tricky UNITED STATES Investment booms in America in 1990s The Internet explosion: The period of tremendous growth of the Internet in the latter half of the 1990s. In the 1994-1996 time frame, it changed from a scientific and governmental research network to a commercial and consumer marketplace. Real estate: The real estate market changed its direction markedly around 1990, from a booming market to a market in the doldrums for the better part of a decade, and then the market started accelerating upwards at increasing rates. The national home price boom since the late 1990s appears unprecedented in US history, although the “baby boom” in housing of the late 1940s and early 1950s comes close, and there have been some very large local boom United States Housing Bubble The Collapse of Housing Bubble Causes: - The crash of subprime lending market (subprime mortgages): When the interest rates started to raise, people stopped buying house. - The financial mania ran its course, buyers become scarer. The buyer pool was seriously depleted leaving prices artifically high levels. When the abundance of sellers became greater than the number of available buyers qualifying for financing, prices began to fall. Results: - Banks were awash in debts - A large amount of companies faced forclosure. Even the companies that did not foreclose suffered losses that amounted to billions of dollars., - People cut spending, shrinked sales for businesses and prompted layoffs. Effects on Economy The result of the collapse of American housing price: + Homeowner: shrinking sales for businesses and prompting layoff. + Vital signs weaken: plunging home sales, a bleak job market, the quarterly rate of economic growth had slowed – to 1.6% fears of a second recession are growing despite an aggressive regimen of treatments 11 Effects on Economy • The government policy makers cannot deliver meaningful intervention , because any proposed curative can risk adding to national debt: the dramatic expansion of the debt make the people fear that the creditors (like China and Japan) might demand sharply higher interest rate to finance American spending The rate inflicts inflation or rising prices Reasons: 1. The rate : Merchants loose faith in the sanctity of dollar and demand more dollars in exchange for oil, electronics and other items 2. Investors: loose faith in real estate and stocks flooding into government saving bonds interest rate low JAPAN Japan’s years of pain were made worse by deflation: Deflation a sustained, broad drop discourages business from investing and hiring Less work and lower wage less spending power reinforce a predilection against hiring and investing ===> a downward spiral Germany • Has long harbored particularly powerful fears of inflation • Germany has done well in the current downturn without large stimulus spending • Germans had 2 advantages over Americans: + a more extensive social safety net to give consumers more money + a vibrant manufacturing base to churn out more goods for export From above situation =>>>>The growing impression of weakening economy combined with a dearth of policy options has made one country fall in to trouble American now: trouble began when a speculative real estate frenzy ended, leaving banks awash in debts. The crisis was deepened by indecisive policy + the trajectory of prices is leading to fears of deflation American’s solutions to attack deflation: • The primary way: inject credit into the economy, giving reluctant consumers the ability to spend • The Fed adjust a benchmark overnight rate for banks, has kept its target rate near zero • The Fed also relieved American banks of trouble investments, many linked to mortgages, to give the banks room to make new loans Result • 1. The good result: The Fed has been confronting the possibility of another depression. • 2. The bad one: +The Fed added to the nation’s debts + following the economists: that’s the wrong medicine for the American economy – take the medicine and stave off the lethal threat, the deal with the collateral problems DIFFERENCES AMERICA An ailing economy. Inflation or Deflation. National debt. CHINA o An ailing economy. o Inflation or Deflation. o State firms o Lack of control by government 19 Uncertainty reigns on Wall street. China’s change • China’s state-run companies runs again (pump the public money into companies that it expects to upgrade the industrial base and employ more people). 20 China’s change Enhance government control over some parts of the economy. Become the world’s secondlargest economy this year (their own more statist approach to economy management, the socialist system’s advantages). 21 China’s change Enhance government control over some parts of the economy. 22 China’s change Major industrial policy(dismantled great sections which are being partly undone in the first 20 years from 1978 to 90s). Less attuned to the interest of foreign investors and China’s own private sector the earlier generation (economy reforms). 23 China’s change 4 trillion renminbi ($588) stimulus package (china pumped out for new highways, railroads and other big projects went to state-owned companies.) Huge expansion of the government role in the corporate sector in 2009 (set up 8000 state-owned investment companies,EX: chinese auto maker). 24 China’s achievement State control of energy supplies is crucial to china’s growth (taking over coal price, fuel). State companies keep government contract for roads and bridges, finance and even military. Top-down strategy (state control of vast ereas of the economy will generate china’s growth.) 25