I.
Shares of three publicly traded Chinese-based Internet
portals -- Sina, Sohu.com, and Netease.com -- are up an
average of 68 percent during the past month.
The meteoric rise is scary, especially when you
consider that when Sohu and Sina reported their
first-quarter results this week, management of both
companies said that if anything, future results could be
negatively impacted by SARS as companies in China
cut back on advertising.
To be sure, the companies do have some fundamentals
in their favor, and SARS is not the only reason the
stocks have gone up. In fact, the three stocks are up an
average of 108 percent this year and almost 760 percent
since the Nasdaq's early October lows.
Chang-hua Qiu, an analyst with FORUN Technologies,
said that the three companies have done a good job of
boosting their fee-based businesses, such as premium
messaging services and online gaming, in order to
lessen their dependence on advertising.
(b) Their trading brings profit that is 30 times the
profit they used to make.
(c) They are making profit almost a half of the
profit that Yahoo! has made.
(d) Yahoo! makes profit that is 73 times its market
price, which doubles those of the three portals.
II.
Japan's Nikkei average extended gains for a second
session Thursday, clawing back ground lost to the
"Sony shock," after banks rose on short-covering as
investors anticipated policy steps to deal with the
market slump.
Analysts said recent media reports of emergency
economic proposals by Japan's ruling parties boosted
hopes for steps to prevent further drops in Japanese
shares, which sank to 20-year lows earlier this week.
The Nikkei rose 0.41 percent to close at 7,863.29.
That put it above last Thursday's closing level of
7,854.57, after which Sony Corp. shocked the market
with earnings and an outlook that were well below
expectations.
As a result, the companies have recently started to
report profits after enduring several years of losses.
And for what it's worth, the Chinese portals aren't
nearly as expensive as Yahoo!, even with their huge
run. Based on 2003 earnings estimates from Qiu, the
three stocks are trading at less than 30 times earnings.
Yahoo! has a price/earnings ratio of 73.
"With the BOJ's move yesterday, the ruling coalition
set to finalize a package over the long weekend, and
Sony's plunge stopped, we have an atmosphere where it
has become difficult to sell," said Tsuyoshi Nomaguchi,
a strategist at Daiwa Securities.
Still, making a bet on one analyst's estimates is
obviously a huge risk, so investors would probably be
wise to steer clear of these stocks.
The Bank of Japan's surprise decision Wednesday to
pump more liquidity into the financial system and the
results of the latest inspections on bank loans, which
were better than some had expected, were also behind
the short-covering.
1. The three Internet portals are great listed
companies in China.
2. Fundamentally speaking, the three portals are
sending more and more stocks to the market to
win investors’ favor.
3. The three portals are charging their customers in
the hope that they can rely less on advertising.
4. It is advisable for investors to keep away from the
three companies.
5. Why is the rise so meteoric and scary?
(a) SARS seems to be the only reason why the
stocks have gone up.
(b) The rise is great, but future results could be
negatively impacted by SARS.
(c) Their stocks went up a lot, but companies in
China could cut back on advertising.
(d) Sohu and Sina reported their first-quarter
results this week, but their stocks still went up a
lot.
6. Which is correct about the three portals?
(a) Their market prices are 30 times their earnings.
1. The BOJ is going to make it easier for assets to
be converted into cash.
2. After banks rose on short-covering, Sony Corp.
shocked the market
3. What would the “package” that the ruling
coalition set to finalize?
(a) One that would create a better environment
for investment.
(b) One that would make it difficult for traders to
sell their stocks.
(c) One that would stop Sony from getting worse.
(d) One that would eventually make the economy
better.
4. Which is not related to the extended gains of the
Nikkie?
(a) The package finalized to stop the Sony’s
plunge.
(b) The liquidity to be pumped into the financial
system.
(c) The good results of the latest inspections on
bank loans.
(d) The short-covering.
1
The unemployment rate rose to 6 percent in April as
businesses cut thousands of jobs for the third
___A____ month(連續第三個月), extending the worst
stretch for the U.S. labor market since World War II.
"All this bickering about the shape of a dividend tax cut
is a ___I____ (轉移焦點的事件) from how to get
consumers spending right now," said Lawrence Mishel,
labor economist and president of the Economic Policy
Institute, a think tank that has long opposed Bush's tax
plan.
Unemployment rose from 5.8 percent in March, the
Labor Department said, matching its December 2002
peak, which was the highest level since August 1994.
Unemployed workers now total 8.8 million, up from
8.4 million in March.
1. Outside the farm sector, the average payroll for
each citizen was undercut and is now less than
$48,000.
III.
Payrolls shrank by 48,000 outside the farm sector after
falling by a revised 124,000 jobs in March. In the past
three months, 523,000 jobs have been cut, the worst
such extension since the months after the Sept. 11
attacks.
"I'm glad it wasn't worse," said Putnam Investments
economist David Kelly. "I wouldn't say the job market
is out of intensive care yet, but if we see a ____B___
(上揚) in retail sales and a rise in business spending in
the next few months, the effects [of recent weak
economic growth] should be done by the third quarter."
But some analysts worried that the big jump in the
unemployment rate could weaken consumer ___C____
(消費者信心) and undercut consumer wage growth.
Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of
the total economy.
"The question must be asked as to what psychological
___D____ (心理上的衝擊) there may be from this
oft-cited [number] ... upon consumer sentiment," said
Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch. "The unemployment rate
and inflation are the most important determinants of
consumer sentiment."
Some economists doubt further Fed rate-cutting would
do much good anyway. ___E____ (刺激景氣的因素)
isn't the problem, these analysts say -- as Cheney
pointed out, the economy is awash in all these positive
factors, with super-low interest rates, a ____F___ing
dollar (貶值中的美金) making U.S. goods more
competitive overseas, low ___G___ (存貨), high
productivity, and a slowly improving stock market.
2. David Kelly thinks that unemployment rate
would not be a decisive factor influencing the
economy.
3. Rosenberg thinks that the economy depends
most on the health of consumer confidence.
4. Some believe that the real problem is that people
would not buy, especially those working for
corporate sectors.
5. Which month saw the highest unemployment
rate: (a) August 1994 (b) December 2002
(c) March 2003 (d) April 2003.
6. Cheney believes that rate-cutting, together with
a lot of positive factors, would revive the
economy.
7. Bush believes that
(a) the current tax is too high for American
citizens.
(b) Cutting citizens’ tax will create more jobs.
(c) The 6% unemployment rate is an alarming
indicator.
(d) Citizens would find jobs once they are taxed
less.
The real problem, according to some analysts, is that
demand is weak, particularly in the corporate sector.
President Bush has proposed tax cuts of at least $550
billion, which he claims will stimulate business
investment and hiring. "That 6 percent number should
say loud and clear to members of both political parties
in the United States Congress: We need robust tax
relief so our fellow citizens can find a job," Bush said
in a speech Friday.
Many economists, however, doubt cutting taxes will do
much to stimulate job growth in the short term and are
calling for measures that could have a more immediate
effect, such as giving money to cash- ___H____ed (現
金短缺的) state governments or extending
unemployment benefits.
2
IV
(c)
Many still think China is cooking its books, but now
some are pushing a new theory, that it is playing down
growth, which could be rather higher than the official
numbers.
(d)
The thinking is that China may be leaving itself
___J____ room (彈性的空間) so that if hard times hit,
it can still report solid performance and avoid
unnerving its people -- and cash-rich investors.
For instance, it could let Beijing smooth over any
__K____ falls (猛跌) as a result of the deadly SARS
virus, which is already denting tourism and retailing in
Asia and could dull the shine on the region's brightest
spot if not controlled soon.
"There are good reasons to be ___L___ (持懷疑的態
度)," Lehman Brothers analyst Rob Subbaraman said
of China's economic data in a research report.
"The conventional wisdom is that China's official
statistics ___M____ (浮報) GDP growth. But
mis-measurement can cut both ways: we judge that the
economy could be growing faster than the official
numbers suggest, perhaps as fast as 12 percent,"
Subbaraman said.
China said first-quarter gross domestic product -- the
broadest measure of economic activity -- was up 9.9
percent on a year earlier, rising much faster than the
official target of seven percent growth in full-year 2003
GDP. The economy last year was eight percent larger
than in 2001.
There have been signs that China's top statisticians are
taking their jobs more seriously. An IMF team is to
visit China in July to __N____ (評估) the work.
"The official Chinese data are more ___O___ than
often thought (可信度比一般人認為的還要高)," said
the latest issue of the China Economic Quarterly. "The
problem is not the faking of data but the failure of the
traditional reporting system to capture economic
activity dispersed among hundreds of thousands of
small enterprises lying outside the traditional state
sector," the journal said.
1. Economists have suspected China of puffing up
its economic growth.
2. Subbaraman thinks that China’s official statistics
may not be puffing up its growth.
3. In recent three years, China has seen its GDP
growth up almost 25%.
4. What is the new theory as pointed out in the
first paragraph?
(a) China is still cooking its books.
(b) China’s official numbers could be even higher.
China is trying to make a less rosy growth
report.
If hard times hit its growth, China would still
report well to attract investors.
Which is not related to China’s “data”
problem?
(a) The government’s system is too old to take hold
of its economic activity that is developing
rapidly.
(b) The country is so big and is developing so fast
that the government has no power to take hold of
it.
(c) Its economic activity is too diversified for the
government to tale control of.
(d) Too many enterprises are outside the traditional
state sector that the government’s system is
forced into faking data.
5.
Name____________________ Number____________
Vocabulary:
_____ 1.
assess
_____ 8.
sentiment
_____ 2.
decline
_____ 9.
sharp
_____ 3.
distraction
_____ 10. skeptical
_____ 4.
impact
_____ 11. Stimulus
_____ 5.
inventories
_____ 12. straight
_____ 6.
overstate
_____ 13. strap
_____ 7.
pickup
_____ 14. trustworthy
_____ 15. wiggle
Choice
I. 1. _____ 2._____ 3._____ 4._____ 5._____
II.
III.
1. _____ 2._____ 3._____ 4._____
1. _____ 2._____ 3._____ 4._____ 5._____
6._____ 7._____
IV. 1. _____ 2._____ 3._____ 4._____ 5._____
3
(A) All/Each (B) NAPM (C) CPI
(D) Core Rate (E) GDP
(F) CCI
_____ 1.
A reading over 50% indicates that
manufacturing is growing, while a reading
below 50% means it is shrinking.
_____ 15. It measures the number of help wanted ads
in newspapers to gain a sense of the state
of the labor market.
_____ 2.
Basically, it is the widest measure of the
state of the economy.
_____ 16. It provides an excellent picture of the state
of manufacturing.
_____ 3.
It excludes volatile goods like food and
energy and gives a closer measure of real
inflation.
_____ 17. It tracks the cost paid by consumers for
goods.
_____ 4.
It investigates the cost of about 200 types
of goods and thousands of actual products,
ranging from foods and energy to
expensive consumer goods.
_____ 5.
It is also important because it is used to
adjust the annual changes to Social
Security payments.
_____ 6.
It is believed to change in advance of
changes in the economy, giving you a
preview of what is going to happen before
the change actually occurs.
_____ 7.
It is considered a crucial part of the
economic picture.
_____ 8.
It is the aggregated monetary value of all
the goods and services produced by the
entire economy during the quarter.
_____ 9.
It is the most important indicator.
_____ 10. It is the most widely used measure of
inflation.
_____ 18. It’s report measures how confident
consumers feel about the state of the
economy and their spending power.
_____ 19. It’s report uses about 5,000 households as a
sample population.
_____ 20. Many analysts believe that a lot of what
ails an economy. can be cured when it gets
strong.
_____ 21. The Fed watches it as it decides what to do
about interest rates.
_____ 22. The Growth of it above 2.5-3 % is often
thought to be unsustainable and a precursor
to high inflation.
_____ 23. There has been much debate about how
well it measures inflation, and some feel
that it is an imperfect way to track rising
prices.
_____ 24. When it gets high, it may help soften the
blow or power a recovery, even though
most data points to a slumping economy.
_____ 11. It is thought to be an early indicator of
inflationary pressures.
_____ 12. It is worth noting that each initial report of
it will be revised twice before the final
figure is settled upon.
Name____________________ Number____________
_____ 13. It measures conditions in the
manufacturing sector.
_____ 14. It measures the change in the cost of a
bundle of consumer goods and services.
4