April 21 2016
Food Security & Nutrition Working Group
Eastern and Central African Region
Agenda
April 21, 2016
Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO
Venue: ICPAC (Kenya Meteorological Department)
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, opposite the Junction
Situation Analysis & Outlook:
09:30
Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition
& refugees
10:30
Tea/Coffee break
ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC,
IPC, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP
All
All
11:00
Discussion
April 21 2016
Current Conditions
April 21 2016
Key Messages
• There are 25 million people facing crisis and emergency food insecurity levels
in the region (the food insecure population in IPC phases 3 and 4). This is
higher than the pre-harvest food insecure population in December 2015 (13
million people). The key drivers of food insecurity is conflict and insecurity,
the impact of El Nino-induced drought and floods that continues to
negatively affect crop and animal production and economic shocks (high food
prices and inflation).
• Key areas of concern remain the drought stricken areas of Ethiopia, Sudan,
northern Somalia, and Djibouti, which are also forecasted to receive near
normal to below-normal rains during the March-May period as this may slow
recovery.
• This number is expected to increase in the absence of sufficient funding and
adequate response. Hence updating of El Nino contingency plans and
appropriate preparedness actions by governments and humanitarian partners
should be stepped up.
• Donors are called upon to support this critical early humanitarian action.
• Governments and development partners should step up risk reduction and
livelihood support/diversification strategies to mitigate risks in vulnerable
communities, especially those whose livelihoods have been devastated.
April 21 2016
Ethiopia
• More than 10.2 million people are in need of
emergency food assistance
•
Projected food insecurity
classification Feb – May 2016
Most households are relying on humanitarian
assistance as the main source of food in the
affected areas.
• Price of maize in key markets is above 5-yr average
but stable. Stability is partly due to humanitarian
assistance and partly due to food movement from
surplus areas.
• Areas of concern: Southern Afar and Sitti Zone of
Somali, Waghimra zone in Amhara Region and
lowlands in eastern Oromia Regions in Emergency
(IPC Phase 4)& others under Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Some dependent on safety nets could also be
affected from July 2016 when the transfers end.
• Food insecurity continues to deteriorate in most
drought
affected
areas
despite
ongoing
humanitarian assistance. - due to an early start of
the lean period, poor Belg, declining incomes from
livestock, alarming water shortages (El Nino impact),
and above-average food prices.
Food security situation is not
expected
to
improve
meaningfully until the next
Meher harvest in October
2016 due to poor Belg
harvest
prospects
and
livestock recovery takes time.
April 21 2016
Sudan
• More than 4 million people in Sudan face Current food security status,
Stressed IPC Phase 2 and Crisis IPC Phase 3 as of March - May 2016
February 2016. Below average 2015/16 harvests,
higher than usual staple food prices, and poor
pasture conditions are likely to result in a higher
than usual number of food insecure people in
Sudan during the March/April to September lean
season.
• Most newly displaced households are located in
North Darfur and have lost access to household
stocks, productive assets, and normal income
earning opportunities; and are receiving some
assistance, and are therefore in Crisis (IPC Phase
3).
• IDPs (20-25%) and poor households in SPLMN
areas and new IDPs in the Darfur states who do
not receive humanitarian food assistance are likely
to be in Emergency (IPC 4).
• Areas
of
concern:
• In contested areas of South Kordofan, conflict is
North, South Kordofan,
expected to increase during the summer months
Kassala, Red Sea, White
and to further disrupt livelihoods and markets,
Nile, and the Darfur
and to trigger additional displacement.
States.
April 21 2016
Burundi
• 3.6 million people are food insecure (689,571 severely) – according to the Feb
2016 FSMS & EFSA.
• Season A production was 10 percent below average nationally due to conflict
related disruptions to agricultural activities. Population movement and market
access remain constrained in many areas.
• Many poor and conflict affected households throughout Burundi remain Stressed
(IPC Phase 2). Some poor households in these areas are likely to remain in Crisis
(IPC Phase 3) through at least the end of the lean season in May.
• In conflict affected areas, below average production is of particular concern.
Many households in affected areas have below average stocks after poor Season
A production
• Conflict continues to disrupt Season B (Mar-Jun) agricultural activities, limiting
income earning opportunities.
• Staple food prices in the affected areas remain above both last year and the
five-year average.
• Areas of concern: food insecurity likely to deteriorate in conflict affected areas of
Bujumbura, Bujumbura rural, Kirundo, Makamba, Rumonge, Cibitoke, Bubanza,
and Ruyigi, Bururi, Muyinga,, and Mwaro.
April 21 2016
South Sudan
• An estimated 2.8 million people (IPC Phases 3, 4 and Projected food security
5) or 23% of the population will face acute food and outcomes Jan-Mar 2016
nutrition insecurity between January and March 2016
due to economic crisis, insecurity and disrupted
markets.
• Overall, food insecurity likely to worsen during MayJuly lean period reaching unprecedented food
insecurity levels.
• The overall cereal deficit in January-December 2016
marketing year is estimated at about 380,000 tonnes, Source: IPC Dec 2016
(54 percent) more than the deficit estimated for 2015
(CFSAM)
• In Western Equatoria, while farmers are returning
to their farms due to relative calm but lack basic
inputs to fully resume agricultural activities.
• Areas of Concern:
Greater Upper Nile
• Disrupted trade, localized insecurity and reduced
states of Unity, Jonglei
crop harvests and economic meltdown are creating
and Upper Nile; where
additional food insecurity concerns in Northern
Unity State remains
Bahr El Ghazal (NBeG), Warrap and Eastern
most affected due to
Equatoria states. Fighting and displacement has
continued fighting and
similarly affected farmers in Wau County.
displacement.
April 21 2016
Somalia (FEWSNET and FSNAU)
• 953,000 people under crisis & emergency between
Feb-June 2016 (68% are IDPs) due to poor rainfall and
drought conditions, trade disruption, protracted and
new population displacement,
compounded by
poverty;
Projected food security
outcomes, Feb - June 2016
• 3.7 million people in Somalia are acutely food insecure
and will be in need of food security assistance and
livelihood support now until June 2016. (Source:
FSNAU Feb 2016).
• Areas of concern: Banadir, Bari, Awdal, Sanaag regions.
Food security outcomes are expected to worsen at
least until the start of Gu rains in April in the latter and
deserve close monitoring. Other priority groups
include poor and vulnerable urban populations in the
South that have been affected by trade disruption
• Malnutrition: Protracted nutrition crisis among several
population groups. Critical GAM rates (>15%) reported
for last two years; especially among Bari Urban;
Garowe, Galkayo and Dollow IDPs; Mataban and
Beletweyne Districts; Bay, North Gedo and North Gedo
Riverine.
Source: FSNAU Feb 2016.
April 21 2016
Kenya
• 640,000 people required food assistance, reduced
by 41% compared to Aug 2015 (FEWS NET and
KFSSG Feb 16).
• The long rains are forecast to be near average,
partially influenced by the ongoing El Niño and
harvest is still likely to be on time.
Projected food security
outcomes, Feb-Sept 2016
• Household food security is expected to improve
slightly in most pastoral areas, starting in April, as
the long rains restore pasture, water resources,
milk availability and animal sales as livestock
migrate back.
• Despite slight improvements in food security
conditions, the majority of pastoral households
will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
• Household food security in marginal agricultural
areas is likely to remain stable, agricultural wage
labor (land preparation and dry planting) is
available at typical levels.
• Most households will remain in None (IPC Phase 1)
through at least June 2016 when the green harvest
will be available.
Source: FEWSNET
April 21 2016
Djibouti
• About 227,463 people are facing Crisis IPC Phase 3 and emergency IPC
Phase 4 food insecurity levels. (Source: IPC Oct 2015 estimates).
• This is due to below average performance caused by constrained
production and reduced purchasing power among many pastoral
households leading to adoption of alternative livelihoods (e.g. sales of
charcoal and wood, wage labour).
• Livestock are still in poor body condition due to water and pasture shortage
while in some situations deaths and diseases have eroded livelihood base
of some households.
• Acute food insecurity is likely to continue among poor households in these
regions, at least through September 2016.
• However, March-May Diraac/Sorghum (though expected to be belowaverage) could improve pasture conditions and access to water for humans
and livestock to some extent.
• Areas of concern: Southeastern Pastoral, northwestern Dikhil, and Obock
regions.
April 21 2016
Uganda
• 392,909 people (39% of the total pop) are Projected food insecurity Nov
facing ‘Crisis’ food insecurity IPC level 3 in 2015 - Apr 2016
Karamoja due to poor crop performance
(caused by flooding and dry spells) in 2015
and are depending on the market and WFP
humanitarian assistance.
• Areas of concern: Moroto, Kotido, Kaabong
and Napak districts. Other affected regions
are Teso and Acholi facing stressed IPC 2 food
security level. (Source: IPC Nov 2015-Apr
2016 report). The rest of the country is
minimally food insecure (IPC level 1).
• Land preparation and planting started in
March. Rains continuing in April throughout
the country.
• Early harvesting (beans) expected end May
2016 except in Karamoja.
Source: FEWSNET.
April 21 2016
Rwanda
• With adequate household stocks (due to above average Season A harvest and
mild April-May lean period) and typical income earning opportunities, most
poor households are expected to remain in None (IPC Phase 1) until Season B
harvesting begins in May 2016.
• However, Season A harvests were below average for the third consecutive
season in the Eastern Semi Arid Agropastoral livelihood zone and poor
households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the April to May lean
season, depending more on markets. Labor opportunities will seasonally
decline in April, reducing purchasing capacity.
• Areas of concern: Kayonza, Kirehe, and Nyagatare Districts.
April 21 2016
CAR
• 2.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance (IPC
Phases 3 & 4) following unprecedented scale and intensity of food
insecurity caused by massive population displacement, severe
humanitarian and economic hardships, depletion of household
assets and reserves due to the ongoing crisis.
• Overall crop and animal production is drastically below pre-crisis
levels; overall crop production has reduced by 54%, cereal
production reduced by 70% and cattle/shoats reduced by 46-57%
(WFP/FAO CFSAM March 2016).
• Areas of concern: the prefectures of Nana-Mambéré, HautMbomou, Mambéré-Kadéï, Ouham, Vakaga and Nana- Gribizi in the
north, southeast and northwest regions.
April 21 2016
DRC
• 4.5 million people were projected under IPC crisis (IPC 3) and emergency
(IPC 4) phases over Sept 2015 – March 2016 and requiring humanitarian
support.
• Poor road conditions, coupled with a deteriorating security situation
negatively affects the ability to deliver food assistance in eastern region.
• The 2015/2016 season B performed favorably due to good rains and
improved food availability. However, El Nino related floods resulted in
localized crop losses and destruction of livelihoods.
• The 2015/2016 season B harvests led to a seasonal price decline in some
markets BUT the introduction of a new tax on boats and agricultural
products in North Kivu province has led to an abnormal rise in food prices in
South Kivu markets.
April 21 2016
Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)
Country
Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4
Source
Burundi
3.6M
April 2016 WFP
CAR
2.3M (require assistance)
IPC April 2016
Djibouti
0.27M
IPC Oct 2015
Ethiopia
10.2M (require food aid)
HRD, Dec 2015
Kenya
0.64M (require support)
KFSSG, Feb 2016
Somalia
0.95M
FSNAU, Feb-June 2016
South Sudan
2.84M
IPC, Dec 2015
Uganda
0.39M (to be updated in May 2016)
IPC April 2016
Sudan
4M
IPC Sept – Nov 2015
TOTAL
25.15