Biofuels
Potential for biomass use
►
Total Global Primary Energy Supply
(in ExaJoules (1018))
2004
2030
2050
►
Actual use of biomass
2004
►
470 EJ
670 EJ
850 EJ
49 EJ
Potential of biomass
Yearly global photosynthesis
~ 4000 EJ
Technical potential raw biomass (2050)
450 EJ
Economical potential raw biomass
(2050)
150 EJ
Economical potential liquid biofuel
(2050)
53 EJ
Potential for biofuel production
►
Current transport fuels needs: 77 EJ
►
Biofuels
Ethanol
►
(2004)
0.84 EJ
9.5 Mha
Bio diesel (2003)
0.06 EJ
0.5 Mha
856 Mha would be required to
meet current fuel needs
Land suitable for agricultural
production
►
856 Mha would be required to meet
current fuel needs
►
Land suitable for agriculture *
Total used
Industrialised countries
Developing countries
Total suitable
Industrialised countries
Developing countries
* excludes
2004
2004
2004
1540 Mha
636 Mha
904 Mha
4188 Mha
1406 Mha
2782 Mha
protected areas and closed forests and is crop specific, the total
land suitable for agriculture is not necessarily suitable for biofuel crops.
Most important bio-fuel crops
Main producing countries:
Land
under irrigation
(estimates):
Sugar cane
Brazil / India /
China / Thailand
14% / 80% /
28% / 64%
Sugar beet
France / USA /
Germany / Russia
15% / 53% /
5% / 5%
Nigeria / Brazil /
Thailand / Indonesia
0%
USA / China /
Brazil / Mexico
21% / 40% /
0% / 17%
Malaysia / Indonesia /
Nigeria / Thailand
0%
Rapeseed
China / Canada /
India / Germany
3% / 0% /
8% / 0%
Soybean
USA / Brazil /
Argentina / China
10% / 0% /
0% / 29%
Crop:
Cassava
Maize
Oil Palm
Impacts of biofuels
► Rainfed
agriculture:
 Pressure on land resources
► Irrigated
agriculture:
 Pressure on water resources
What is the potential of the natural
land resources base ?
Sugar cane
Sugar beet
What is the potential of the natural
land resources base ?
Cassava
Maize
What is the potential of the natural
land resources base ?
Oilpalm
Rapeseed
Soybean
Fuel
product[1]
Crop:
Annual
obtainable
yield (l/ha)
Energy
yield
(GJ/ha)
[2]
Evapotranspiration
equivalent
(litre / litre
fuel)
Potential crop
evapotranspira
tion in mm/ha
(indicative)
Sugar
cane
Ethanol
(from
sugar)
6000
120
2000
Sugar
beet
Ethanol
(from
sugar)
7000
140
786
Cassava
Ethanol
(from
starch)
4000
80
2250
1000
Maize
Ethanol
(from
starch)
3500
70
1357
550
Oil palm
Bio-diesel
5500
193
2364
Rapeseed /
Mustard
Bio-diesel
1200
42
Soybean
Bio-diesel
400
14
Irrigated or
Rainfed
Rainfed
conditions
Water Resource Implications
under irrigated conditions
Actual rainfed crop
evapotranspiration
in mm/ha
(indicative)
Irrigation
water
required
(mm/ha)[3]
Irrigation water
required in litre
/ litre fuel
1400
Irrigated /
Rainfed
1000
800
1333
650
Irrigated /
Rainfed
450
400
571
900
0
0
Irrigated /
Rainfed
400
300
857
1500
Rainfed
1300
0
0
3333
500
Rainfed
400
0
0
10000
500
Rainfed
400
0
0
Rainfed
[1] Energy density: Bio-diesel 35 MJ/l Ethanol 20 MJ/l
[2] FAO (2006b). Starch market adds value to cassava, on-line available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/magazine/0610sp1.htm.
Global Petroleum Club, Energy Content of Biofuel, on-line available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_content_of_Biofuel.
Marris, E. (2006). Drink the best and drive the rest. Nature, 444, 670–672, 7 December.
USDA (2006). The Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sugar in the United States, on-line available at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/EthanolSugarFeasibilityReport3.pdf.
[3] On the assumption of 50% irrigation efficiency
A few numbers
► Water
needed to produce:
 1 kilo of wheat: 1 000 litres
 1 kilo of meat (beef): 15 000 litres
► Daily
water requirements per person:
 Drinking: 2-3 litres
 Domestic needs: 20–300 litres
 Food: 2 000-3 000 litres
► with
2 500 litres of water, we can produce:
 food for one person for one day
 1 litre of biofuel
What is the potential of the natural
water resources base ?
Near East and
North Africa
Water withdrawal 2000
Water withdrawal 2030
South Asia
Renewable water resources
Sub-Saharan
Africa
East and
Southeast Asia
Latin America and
the Caribbean
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
00
10
00
0
12
00
0
14
00
0
16
00
0
What is the potential of the natural
water resource base ?
Biofuel and water use (2005)
Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007
Projections for water demand - 2030
Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007
NAS report on water and biofuels in
the United States (2007):
►
►
Currently, biofuels are a marginal additional stress on water
supplies at the regional to local scale. However, significant
acceleration of biofuels production could cause much
greater water quantity problems depending on where the
crops are grown. Growing biofuel crops in areas requiring
additional irrigation water from already depleted aquifers is
a major concern.
The growth of biofuels in the United States has probably
already affected water quality because of the large amount
of N and P required to produce corn. If projected future
increases in the use of corn for ethanol production do
occur, the increase in harm to water quality could be
considerable.
Conclusions
►
►
►
►
►
World water system already under heavy stress due to
agriculture and other uses
Agriculture main water user (70%)
Future water demand for agriculture in the rise
Climate change likely to result in increased demand for
irrigated water
Bioenergy likely to add to pressure on water:
 depending on type of crop
 depending on farming system: rainfed/irrigated
 depending on region
►
►
China, India, already facing serious water constraints
Keep an eye on sugarcane