Oklahoma Agricultural Land Value
Update
Roger Sahs, Extension Specialist
OSU Department of Agricultural Economics
West-Northwest
Tracts
171
Size
250
$/Acre $1310
% Chg +5.2
North Central
Tracts
112
Size
170
$/Acre $1608
% Chg +6.5
Northeast
Tracts
286
Size
284
$/Acre $1634
% Chg -3.0
East-Northeast
Tracts
33
Size
195
$/Acre $1828
% Chg -6.0
Panhandle
Tracts
39
Size
595
$/Acre $809
% Chg +22.1
State Averages
Tracts
1114
Size
257
$/Acre $1468
% Chg
+2.1
Southwest
Tracts
167
Size
214
$/Acre $1172
% Chg +12.6
South Central
Tracts
101
Size
237
$/Acre $1574
% Chg -2.2
OK Land Values by Region, 2012
Southeast
Tracts
205
Size
214
$/Acre $1548
% Chg +4.6
Recent Trends in Oklahoma Land Values
2012
District
$/ac
One Year
Change
3 Year Change
Percent Change
Panhandle
809
22.1
63.0
West-NW
1310
5.2
31.5
Southwest
1172
12.6
25.9
North Central
1608
6.5
22.3
South Central
1574
-2.2
7.3
Northeast
1634
-3.0
2.9
East-NE
1828
-6.0
3.5
Southeast
1548
4.6
14.5
OK Cropland
1566
10.8
32.8
OK Pasture
1512
-0.5
9.5
Oklahoma
1468
2.1
14.1
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Oklahoma Cropland vs Pastureland Prices
Upward but not steady
climb in values.
“Boom to Bust” was only
30 years ago.
Major increase in values
in recent years.
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Oklahoma Cropland and Pastureland Prices
Nominal vs Inflation Adjusted (base year 2000)
Cropland
Pasture
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
1973-1975 Average Value
Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $3000/Acre
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
2010-2012 Average Value
Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Land prices going ahead…
• Changes in the
environment
–
–
–
–
–
Farm Bill
Domestic economy
Global economy
Elections/policy
Interest rates
• Recreational uses
– Wildlife habitat, wildlife
population
• Development uses
– Population growth
– Per capita income
• Agriculture
–
–
–
–
–
Input prices
Cattle, wheat/feedgrain prices
Yields
Efficiency, productivity
Continued drought
Key Land drivers looking ahead…
 Recent commodity prices and farm
incomes
 Interest rate levels
 Financial health of current buyers
$8
2.00
$7
1.75
$6
1.50
$5
1.25
$4
1.00
$3
0.75
$2
0.50
$1
0.25
$0
0.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Net farm income
2007
2008
Wheat Price
Source: ERS and NASS
2009
2010
2011
2012
$ in Billions
$/bushel
Oklahoma Wheat Price and Net Farm Income
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013
Financial Strength
2013 Balance Sheet of the U.S. Farming Sector (forecast)
Total Farm Assets: Assets: $3.010 trillion
Total Farm Debt: $308 Billion
Total Farm Equity: Equity: $2.702 trillion
Debt‐to‐Equity Ratio: 11.4 Low!
Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio: 10.2 Low!
Bottom-Line: Strong financial fundamentals for the Ag sector.
Minimal Debt Leverage and Low Financial Stress!
Source: Economic Research Service, August 2013
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013
www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Resources
• Agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank
– http://www.kc.frb.org/
– Choose RESEARCH & DATA, then Economic Review or
Agricultural Credit Survey
• USDA Ag Land Value Data and Reports
– http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Land_Value
s_and_Cash_Rents/index.asp