Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Medium-term prospects in the
global oilmeal market
Peter Thoenes
Trade and Markets Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the U.N.
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Louis Dreyfus Commodities
OILSEEDS MEETING
3 - 5 December 2014, Barcelona
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
2
Outline
1.
2.
3.
Model features & assumptions
Livestock and aquaculture sectors
Oilseed complex


4.
5.
6.
oilseed: production, trade, crush
oilmeals: production, utilization, trade
Fishmeal: production, utilization, trade
Price outlook
Model limitations & uncertainties
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
OECD-FAO projections – features & assumptions
main features:
- prepared jointly by OECD and FAO
- based on a comprehensive dynamic model & expert judgment
- global coverage & consistent scenario for entire agricultural sector
- endogenous / exogenous variables
- projections – not forecasts !
general conventions:
- normal production conditions (weather, diseases)
- trended yield development
- no change in policies
specific assumptions:
- technology parameters and elasticities
- population growth
- macroeconomic environment
- crude oil prices
PIC 1
3
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
The livestock and aquaculture sectors
significant growth in non-ruminant
sector and in aquaculture
Meat sector
Meat sector:
- production expansion to slow down
- growth leader: poultry
4
5
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
meat consumption growth concentrated in dvlpg world
- growth leader: Asia (notably China)
- sluggish growth in OECD countries
6
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Dairy sector
- production slowdown
- growth concentrates in developing countries
- India to become the world’s largest milk producer
Aquaculture
- one of the fastest growing
food sectors
- but deceleration compared
to past decade
7
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
The oilseed complex
oilseed industry remains a
fast rising sector
Global oilseed production:
production growing as a result
of both larger area and yield
improvements
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
8
yield improvements are
expected to flatten
countries leading the expansion in global
production: Argentina, Brazil, US and
China … concerning primarily soybeans
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
9
- no major changes in global pattern of production
- dominant position of US, Brazil, Arg. And China to continue
- share of Latin American producers to somewhat increase
10
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Trade in oilseeds
- overall trade expansion to slow down markedly, mainly reflecting reduced
growth in China’s imports
- still, China’s import market share is expected to climb to 60%
- market concentration to prevail
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
11
Export market:
- export expansion driven by US, Argentina and China
- Brazil: reduced growth as preference is given to oilmeal exports
- global export market remains highly concentrated
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Oilseed crush
12
- expansion in global crush to slow down
- China: marked slowdown in domestic crush expansion
- Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine to climb up in the ranking
OILSEED CRUSH
countries ranked by volume
China
United States
Argentina
Brazil
European Union
India
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Canada
Mexico
Turkey
Japan
slowdown or negative
avg. annual growth
rate (in %)
2004-2013 2014-2023
7
2
-1
1
2
3
3
3
2
1
1
2
14
3
9
3
8
2
3
0
4
1
-3
-2
acceleration
13
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Oilmeal production
global oilmeal output to expand further, though at a lower pace
level of concentration remains high: six nations account for
3/4 of total production
growth driven by dvlpg countries,
notably: China, Argentina,
India and Brazil
14
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Oilmeal utilization
consumption growth dominated
by developing countries
Contribution to growth in
global oilmeal consumption
(in %)
Developing
China
Asia excl. China
Brazil
Developed
United States
European Union
Rest of world
32
23
10
6
4
21
• growth driver: rising demand from non-ruminant and
milk sectors ← structural change
• but annual growth in global consumption is expected to
slow down ← efficiency gains
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
15
Global consumption pattern broadly unchanged
OILMEAL CONSUMPTION
ranked by volume
2023 over
2011-13
avg. annual
growth rate
( in %)
(in %)
dvlpg countries: expansion
expected to slow down
dvlpd countries: continued
weak growth
Developing
China
Brazil
India
Mexico
Indonesia
S. Korea
Turkey
Paraguay
Developed
European Union
United States
Japan
Russian Federation
Ukraine
2004-2013
2014-2023
+ 34
+ 49
+ 33
+ 17
+ 51
+ 17
+ 46
+ 52
7
7
3
2
7
2
5
10
3
3
2
1
3
1
3
4
+6
+ 13
-7
+ 30
+ 38
0
-1
0
7
14
0
1
-1
2
1
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Trade in oilmeals
Global trade expansion to slow down
Imports: - growth dominated by developing world
- China to become a major player
- EU import requirements about unchanged
16
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
17
Exports:
- Argentina, Brazil and India to increase their sales
- US and Canada: only modest expansion
- dominance of South + North America to continue
18
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Fishmeal
Production
- global production up 6% compared to base
- expansion driven by developing countries
- meal composition and quality may change
Utilization
- demand tends to outpace supply
- developing countries dominate consumption
- less fishmeal in farmed fish diets (as well as livestock feed)
Trade
- global trade virtually unchanged
- developing countries dominate trade
- import/export patterns about unchanged
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Price outlook
Oilseed complex:
after initial price corrections …
 slow recovery in oilseed and
veg.oil values
 oilmeal prices stabilizing –
on a higher plateau
Fishmeal:
following further downward
corrections, prices expected
to appreciate again
In real terms, all prices should ease
… compared to the recent historical record
19
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
Limitations & uncertainties
general limitations
land projections
yield projections
oilmeal use in feed rations
general unknowns: weather, macro-economy
logistic issues
market concentration
supply response of emerging players
policy interventions:
biofuel
animal-based meals
environmental regulations
ad hoc / temporary measures
20
21
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
FAO Trade and Markets Division:
http://www.fao.org/economic/est/en/
Oilcrops desk:
http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/oilcrops/en/





short-term market
assessments
monthly price and
policy updates
medium-term
projections
price statistics
field R&D projects
Medium-term prospects in the global oilmeal market
22
Thank you
Acknowledgements: - FAO/OECD Outlook team
- Mr. M. Milo (Research Ass.) and
Ms. G. Karumathy (Economist)
OECD/FAO Outlook website: www.agri-outlook.org
@: Peter.Thoenes@fao.org
: +39 06 57053498
: Viale Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Roma, Italy