The State of Food and
Agriculture 2004
FAO Council
Hundred and Twenty-seventh Session
22-27 November 2004
The world is not on track in the fight
against hunger …
Millions
Millions
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
Undernourished People
in Developing Countries
600
1999 – 2001
Point estimates prepared
in 2003
500
798 million
Target
400
2
Latest available point estimates
300
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Change in numbers of undernourished in
developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001
3
Change in numbers of undernourished in
developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001
Reduction
4
Change in numbers of undernourished in
developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001
Reduction
5
Increase
Progress and setback
Change in numbers of undernourished in developing
countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001 (millions)
100
80
60
China
- 95
+ 76
40
20
6
Decrease of
58 million
- 37
0
Reduction
Increase
Food emergency hotspots
7
Hunger hotspots in 2004
Major armed conflict (Oct 2004)
World agricultural production
increased in 2003
Average annual growth
%
3.5
Agriculture
Crops
Livestock
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
8
0
1990-2000
2001
2002
2003
Production in developing countries
outpaces developed countries
Average annual growth in agricultural production
%
4
Developed countries
Developing countries
3
2
1
0
9
-1
1990-2000
2001
2002
2003
Cereal production meets utilization
Million tonnes
2000
Utilization
1950
Production
1900
1850
1800
1750
10
1700
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05**
**: Forecast
As cereal stocks fall, prices rise
Cereal price index
Index 1990-92 = 100
Stock to utilization
ratio (%)
160
44
150
40
140
36
130
120
32
110
28
100
24
90
11
80
20
70
16
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05*
*: Forecast
Commodity prices have recovered
Index 1990-92 = 100
160
Foodstuffs
Oils
140
Cereals
Meat
120
100
12
80
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
03 04*average
*: 10-month
Global agricultural exports resume
growth trend
Billion US$
600
500
Agricultural exports
400
300
200
100
13
0
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Supermarkets are growing rapidly in
developing countries
%
Supermarket share of retail food sales
60
1992
2002
50
40
30
20
10
0
14
South
America
East Asia
Central
(excl. China) Europe
*: 1995 and 2002
South
Africa
China
(urban)
Guatemala*
Source: Reardon et al.
Trade integration can support food
security
Countries by % population undernourished
<2.5%
2.5-4%
5-19%
20-34%
>34%
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ag imports + Ag exports / Ag GDP
55
60
Dependence on agriculture is greater in those
countries where hunger is most prevalent
Countries by % population undernourished
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
20 - 34%
>= 35%
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% of population who depend on agriculture for their livelihood
Investment in agriculture lags where
hunger is most prevalent
Countries by % population undernourished
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
1976 - 1980
1996 - 2001
20 - 34%
>= 35%
17
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Capital stock per agricultural worker (constant 1995 US$)
Public expenditure fails to reflect the
importance of agriculture
Countries by % population undernourished
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
1990-92 average
5 - 19%
1996-98 *
20 - 34%
>= 35%
18
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Agricultural orientation index
*: or most recent
0.5
Development assistance does not target
the neediest countries
Countries by % population undernourished
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
1999-2001
20 - 34%
>= 35%
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
External assistance to agriculture
(constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker)
35
Conclusions
• Agricultural production is growing strongly in
developing countries
• Recent commodity price increases reversing
• Progress in fighting hunger continues in many
countries, but others are falling behind
• Investment in agriculture effective in reducing
hunger
20
• But these investments are not being made in
the neediest countries