Centre for Actuarial Research The Costing of Prescribed Minimum Benefits January 2003 PMB Study Data Data from Medscheme Data Warehouse Data covers 2001 calendar year, extracted in July 2002 Data fully run-off, no adjustment for IBNR 90 options 31 schemes 18.071 million beneficiary months of data Average exposure of 1,505,917 beneficiaries Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis and Applicability to the Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis Different clusters experience different benefit utilisation, costs and disease profiles. Provider behaviour differs by cluster, even within the same hospital facility. Four distinct clusters: High contains options with older, 'whiter' members with high utilisation; Medium-older contains options with medium utilisation and older members; Medium-younger contains options with medium utilisation and younger members; and Low contains options with younger, 'blacker' members with low utilisation. Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis 8.8% High 9.6% Medium-older Medium-younger Low 10.1% 71.6% Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis Study contains more Low cluster beneficiaries than the industry. For industry comparisons, use Weighted industry price. This uses 50% of the costs of the Low cluster and 100% of the other clusters. Low cluster is more relevant to the emerging low-cost option environment. High cluster is used to give an upper limit to the PMB price. Would only be applicable to a few high utilisation options. Centre for Actuarial Research Cost of PMBs Centre for Actuarial Research Claim Value by Status Included 32.1% Not Classifiable Out 55.1% 12.8% Centre for Actuarial Research Proportion of Total Cost of PMBs by Disease Chapter Mental Illness Other 2.6% Haem-Infect 3.2% CNS 9.5% 3.9% Eye 3.9% ENT 1.6% Obstetrics Neonate 17.3% Respiratory 10.5% Gynaecology 4.5% Genitourinary 2.7% Endocrine 2.2% Skin/Breast 3.4% MS/Trauma 6.3% Cardiac 12.8% HSP 3.2% GIT 12.2% Centre for Actuarial Research Total Other Mental Illness Haem-Infect Obstetrics - Neonate Gynaecology Genitourinary Endocrine Skin/Breast MS/Trauma HSP GIT Cardiac Respiratory ENT Eye CNS Average Cost Average Cost of PMBs by Disease Chapter R 20,000 R 18,000 R 16,000 R 14,000 R 12,000 R 10,000 R 8,000 R 6,000 R 4,000 R 2,000 R0 Centre for Actuarial Research Cost of PMBs by Age Centre for Actuarial Research Incidence of PMB Admissions by Age 450 400 350 Incidence All Ages 250 200 150 97.6850 100 All ages 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15- 19 10-14 5-9 0 1-4 50 0- 1 Incidence 300 Centre for Actuarial Research Average Cost of PMBs by Age 18,000 16,000 14,000 10,000 R9 127 8,000 6,000 4,000 Average Cost for All Ages All ages 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0 1-4 2,000 0-1 Average Cost 12,000 Centre for Actuarial Research Raw PMB Price by Age (pbpa) R 5,000 R 4,500 R 4,000 R 3,500 Average Price for All Ages R 3,000 R 2,500 R 2,000 R 1,500 R 1,000 R 891.56 pbpa R 500 All ages 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0-1 R0 Centre for Actuarial Research Raw PMB Price by Age and Cluster (pbpa) R 6,000 Total High Medium-older Medium-younger Low R 5,000 R 4,000 R 3,000 R 2,000 R 1,000 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0-1 R0 Centre for Actuarial Research Adjustments to the Raw Price of the PMB Package Centre for Actuarial Research Adjustments to Raw Price Uncertainty in Definition of the PMB Package Recoding the OUT Group Recoding the NC Group Costs of hospital management programme Costs of hospital and related claims administration Costs of chemotherapy and dialysis Costs related to HIV/AIDS Estimate of the cost of ambulatory care Costs of ambulatory administration Reduction for cost of delivery in the public sector Centre for Actuarial Research Full Price of PMB Package Four components : In-patient PMB package price based on full data in study (high degree of certainty) Portion of price for which uncertainty exists in PMB definition (proportion to include of NC and OUT) Margin added for ambulatory costs Non-healthcare costs. Note: Prices should not be used blindly in pricing work. Contact a professional for assistance. Centre for Actuarial Research Full Price of PMBs (excl CDL) R 2,500.00 Non-healthcare costs Ambulatory package Uncertainty in PMB definition In-patient PMB package R2 432.41 R2 010.90 R1 956.01 Per Beneficiary Per Annum R 2,000.00 R1 479.04 R1 489.49 R 1,500.00 R1 343.43 R1 100.08 R 1,000.00 R 500.00 R 0.00 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions Centre for Actuarial Research Improvements to PMB Definition All stakeholders need an unambiguous definition of the PMB package. The Council for Medical Schemes is requested to reconsider the definition of PMBs in the Regulations and to include clear diagnosis and procedure codes in an amendment as soon as possible. Tighter definition of PMBs would ensure more focussed attention on accurate coding from providers and administrators. Attention should be given to the nature of the chapters and to bringing them in line with clinical practice or a particular coding standard. Centre for Actuarial Research Comprehensive Crosswalk Provides a powerful tool for rapid application of PMB status to hospital admissions based on ICD-10 coding Strongly recommend that this should be made freely available to other medical schemes and administrators, in order to improve their understanding and management of PMBs. Recommend utilising this tool, or one developed from this work, to define and manage the PMB package in future. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research The Costing of the Chronic Disease List January 2003 Registration of Beneficiaries for Chronic Medicine Other Chronic Conditions 22.9% CDL Conditions 77.1% Centre for Actuarial Research Prevalence of CDL Registrations Other 18 conditions 7.6% Osteoarthritis 3.4% Anti-Coagulating Therapy 4.9% Asthma 12.2% Hypothyroidism 5.1% Coronary Artery Disease 3.8% Diabetes Mellitus Type 1&2 10.6% Hypertension 37.3% Epilepsy 2.6% Hyperlipidaemia 12.5% Centre for Actuarial Research Beneficiaries Registered for CDL Conditions 3 diseases 9.2% 4 or more diseases 3.3% 2 diseases 25.0% 1 disease 62.5% Centre for Actuarial Research Cost of Each CDL Condition Centre for Actuarial Research Average Cost per Case Addison's Disease Anti-Coagulating Asthma Bipolar Mood Disorder Bronchiectasis Cardiac Failure Cardiomyopathy Chronic Obs. Pulmon. Chronic Renal Disease Coronary Artery Crohn's Disease Cushing's Disease Diabetes Insipidus Diabetes Mellitus T1&2 Dysrhythmias Epilepsy Glaucoma Hyperlipidaemia Hypertension Hypothyroidism Multiple Sclerosis Osteoarthritis Parkinson's Disease Rheumatoid Arthritis Schizophrenia Systemic Lupus Ulcerative colitis Total excl. Hemophilia no cases R21 013 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Average Cost per case Primary Drugs Secondary Chronic Drugs Single diseases only Other Acute Centre for Actuarial Research Average Cost per Case Diabetes, Hypertension Hyperlipid., Hypertension Hypertension, Osteoarthritis Hypertension, Hypothyroid. Asthma; Hypertension Anti-Coag, Hypertension Anti-Coag., Hyperlipid., Hyperten. Diabetes, Hyperlipid., Hyperten. Coronary Artery, Hyperlipid. Top 9 Multiple Diseases Other Multiple Diseases All Single Diseases All CDL Diseases 0 Primary Drugs 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Secondary Chronic Drugs Multiple diseases 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Average Cost per case Other Acute Centre for Actuarial Research 0.00 0.31 Addison's Disease Anti-Coagulating Therapy Asthma Bipolar Mood Disorder Bronchiectasis Cardiac Failure Cardiomyopathy Chronic Obs. Pulmon. Disease Chronic Renal Disease Coronary Artery Disease Crohn's Disease Diabetes Insipidus Diabetes Mellitus T1&2 Dysrhythmias Epilepsy Glaucoma Hyperlipidaemia Hypertension Hypothyroidism Multiple Sclerosis Osteoarthritis Parkinson's Disease Rheumatoid Arthritis Schizophrenia Systemic Lupus Erythromatosis Ulcerative colitis Diabetes, Hypertension Hyperlipid., Hypertension Hypertension, Osteoarthritis Hypertension, Hypothyroid. Asthma; Hypertension Anti-Coag, Hypertension Anti-Coag., Hyperlipid., Hyperten. Diabetes, Hyperlipid., Hyperten. Coronary Artery, Hyperlipid. Prevalence All Diseases 16.94 0.32 0.02 0.26 0.10 0.49 0.03 0.60 0.07 0.01 4.98 0.43 2.57 0.44 3.81 29.88 2.46 0.02 1.63 0.11 0.86 0.15 0.09 0.19 6.57 4.43 2.19 1.49 1.84 1.28 1.07 1.16 0.83 0 5 10 15 20 25 Incidence per 1000 beneficiaries 30 Centre for Actuarial Research CDL Package by Age Centre for Actuarial Research Age of Claiming Beneficiaries for Selected Diseases 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Asthma Hypertension Diabetes, Hypertension Other CDL diseases 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0% 0-1 Proportion of Claiming Beneficiaries 14% Diabetes Mellitus T1&2 Centre for Actuarial Research All ages 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0-1 Prevalence per 1000 beneficiaries CDL Prevalence by Age 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Centre for Actuarial Research All Ages 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 Average Cost per case pa Average Cost of CDL by Age 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Centre for Actuarial Research All Ages 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 Price per beneficiary pa Raw Price of CDL by Age 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 Centre for Actuarial Research CDL Package by Cluster Centre for Actuarial Research Raw Price by Cluster 1000 Price per beneficiary pa 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 High Mediumolder All Single Diseases Mediumyounger High and Medium Top 9 Multiple Diseases Additional Low Total Other Multiple Diseases Centre for Actuarial Research Total High 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 Price per beneficiary pa Raw Price High vs. Low Cluster 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Low Centre for Actuarial Research Differences Between Clusters Age profile differences explain roughly two-thirds of difference in raw cluster prices. Other differences are probably due to a combination of “the four P’s”: variation in Prevalence rates of important conditions; Presentation or manifestation of conditions; Provider choice (GP vs. specialist and the management or prescribing habits of each); and benefits available within the health care Plan. Centre for Actuarial Research Adjustments to the Raw Price of the CDL Package Centre for Actuarial Research Adjustments to Raw Price Haemophilia Removal of three diseases from final Regulations Cost of diagnosis and medical management Adjustment for compliance Adjustment for limits Adjustment for co-payments Costs of chronic medicine management programme Costs of administration Reduction for cost of delivery in the public sector Centre for Actuarial Research Full Price of the CDL Package Centre for Actuarial Research Full Price of CDL Package Four components: Medicine component, based on full data in study (high degree of certainty) Portion of price for which uncertainty exists until package is fully defined and allowance for impact of package being mandatory Amount added for medical management costs Non-healthcare costs. Note: Prices should not be used blindly in pricing work. Contact a professional for assistance. Centre for Actuarial Research Full Price CDL Package R 1,500 Non-healthcare costs Per Beneficiary Per Annum Medical management est. Uncertainty in CDL R 1,250 CDL Medicine Package R 1,000 R 750 R 500 R 250 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Additional Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions Centre for Actuarial Research Price in Mandatory Environment Expect change in member and provider behaviour from existing environment. Uncertainty exists in price until package is fully defined. Have included an effective 30% margin on medicine component of CDL package. Consortium opinion that collective margin of 30% on medicine component is sufficiently conservative to cover this uncertainty in the pricing. Centre for Actuarial Research Need for Mandatory Package 2,500 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 Community rated price 250 All Ages 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 0 Price per beneficiary pa 2,250 Centre for Actuarial Research Need for Mandatory Package Real danger that open schemes will pursue more aggressive self-seeking behaviour and limit chronic medicine benefits to discourage older members and improve their community rate relative to their competitors. Substantial broker activity and churning of members worsens this incentive. A mandatory minimum package of chronic medicine and management benefits is essential for reducing opportunistic behaviour by some schemes. Centre for Actuarial Research Further Policy Issues Membership of medical schemes needs to be compulsory, rather than voluntary, for medium to higher income groups to stabilise the system. A risk equalisation system between medical schemes, based on the Prescribed Minimum Benefit package will reduce the opportunistic profiting from risk selection still further. Centre for Actuarial Research Composition of the CDL List Brief did not extend to consider diseases outside of the draft list and whether any should have been included. Need for a process of chronic disease prioritisation in medical schemes in order to inform the rationing process in future. Centre for Actuarial Research Definition of CDL Package Draft of Treatment Guidelines for Chronic Disease List Conditions Based on Standard Treatment Guidelines and Essential Drugs List published by DoH in 1998. Appoint task team for documenting and maintaining treatment algorithms for CDL conditions. Actuarial and pricing expertise to estimate the price of the algorithms. Iterative process of refining algorithms. Project manager to ensure process completed in time for pricing in August 2003 if implementation is 1 January 2004. Centre for Actuarial Research Complementary and Traditional Medicine Serious concerns about the implications of legislating the algorithms for CDL conditions. Only one approach to treatment will receive funding from medical schemes: entrenchment of an allopathic approach to treatment, largely based on drug interventions. Hard won legal freedoms to operate must not be negated by preventing funding of complementary medicine and African traditional medicine for CDL conditions. Allied Health Professions Council with 11 modalities. Consumers will increasingly question health plans. Inclusion unlikely to be simple and debate will be vigorous. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research The Impact of PMBs on Affordability January 2003 Approach to Affordability Compare price of components of PMB package to reported benefits and contributions of medical schemes. Industry level Scheme level Option level Compare price of PMB package to published contribution tables for open scheme options. Focus on low-cost options. Compare price of PMB package to income levels of existing members and potential members of medical schemes. Impact of employer and per capita subsidies. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of the PMB Package Centre for Actuarial Research Price of Complete PMB Package Non-healthcare costs CDL Medicine Package Ambulatory PMB package Inpatient PMB package R 4,000 Per Beneficiary Per Annum R 3,500 R 3,000 R 2,500 R 2,000 R 1,500 R 1,000 R 500 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Private Sector PMB Package per beneficiary per annum Price pbpa in 2001 Rand terms Inpatient PMB package Ambulatory PMB package CDL Medicine Package Non-healthcare costs Complete PMB package Private Sector High and Medium Low R 1,994.95 R 1,591.46 R 867.47 R 1,073.31 R 1,188.01 R 477.24 R 416.72 R 308.12 R 339.00 R 356.20 R 1,154.35 R 805.33 R 286.33 R 421.58 R 499.09 R 170.96 R 141.97 R 89.55 R 104.82 R 113.47 R 3,797.50 R 2,955.48 R 1,551.47 R 1,938.71 R 2,156.78 High Total Study Weighted Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure on PMB Package Non-healthcare Expenditure as a Proportion of … High Mediumolder MediumYounger High and Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Total Inpatient package 3.9% 4.0% 5.0% 4.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.7% Total Outpatient package 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% Total CDL package 5.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.4% 7.8% 7.3% 7.2% Complete PMB package 4.5% 4.7% 5.4% 4.8% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3% Well below Registrar’s benchmark of 10% of total expenditure Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Complete PMB Package Private sector cost Total CDL package Total Outpatient package Total Inpatient package R 4,000 Per Beneficiary Per Annum R 3,500 R 3,000 R 2,500 R 2,000 R 1,500 R 1,000 R 500 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector PMB Package per beneficiary per annum Price pbpa in 2001 Rand terms High and Medium Low R 1,465.44 R 1,173.53 R 648.89 R 798.05 R 881.17 Total Outpatient package R 251.27 R 207.78 R 129.64 R 151.85 R 164.23 Total CDL package R 708.76 R 520.56 R 237.08 R 311.83 R 354.66 R 2,425.48 R 1,901.87 R 1,015.61 R 1,261.73 R 1,400.07 Total Inpatient package Complete PMB package Public Sector High Total Study Weighted Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Price of PMB Package by Age 12,000 Total CDL package Total Outpatient package 10,000 Total Inpatient package Complete PMB package Public sector 6,000 4,000 2,000 All ages Missing 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 0 Price pbpa 8,000 Centre for Actuarial Research Price of PMB Package by Age Note that for all age bands over 40, the PMB price by age exceeds the community-rated PMB price. This explains the incentive open schemes have to attract and retain younger and healthier members. Centre for Actuarial Research Complete PMB Package for family of four per month Price per family per month (2001 Rands) High Total Inpatient package R 556.37 R 466.84 R 291.98 R 345.27 R 373.29 R 98.28 R 84.98 R 59.00 R 66.93 R 71.09 Toal CDL package R 338.95 R 259.47 R 138.33 R 176.00 R 195.94 Complete PMB package Private Sector R 993.59 R 811.28 R 489.31 R 588.19 R 640.33 Complete PMB package Public Sector R 638.26 R 525.01 R 321.15 R 383.75 R 416.76 Total Outpatient package High and Medium Low Total Study Weighted Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Reported Benefits and Contributions Centre for Actuarial Research Beneficiaries 2001 Bargaining Council Schemes 3.8% Restricted Schemes 28.3% Open Schemes 67.9% Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research Total Benefits R 5,000 4,833 4,488 4,591 Per Beneficiary per Annum R 4,500 R 4,000 3,627 R 3,500 R 3,000 R 2,500 2,043 R 2,000 1,462 R 1,500 R 1,000 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 All Registered Schemes Restricted Schemes Open Schemes PMB High Cluster PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB Industry Weighted R 500 Centre for Actuarial Research Total Contributions Savings Contributions Pooled Contributions 599 R 5,000 433 549 3,798 R 4,000 2,157 R 2,000 4,877 5,192 4,971 All Registered Schemes R 3,000 Restricted Schemes Per Beneficiary per Annum R 6,000 1,551 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Open Schemes PMB High Cluster PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB Industry Weighted R 1,000 Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure R 1,000 921 Administration and Managed Care 169 R 800 786 110 R 700 R 600 501 5 R 500 752 676 R 300 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Restricted Schemes R0 Open Schemes 113 - 496 171 - PMB High Cluster R 100 90 - PMB Industry Weighted R 200 All Registered Schemes R 400 PMB Low Cluster Per Beneficiary per Annum R 900 Other Non-Healthcare Centre for Actuarial Research 5,475 5,625 5,520 All Registered Schemes R 5,000 Private Sector Public Sector 3,798 R 4,000 R 3,000 2,425 2,157 R 2,000 1,551 1,400 1,016 PMB Industry Weighted PMB Low Cluster R0 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Open Schemes R 1,000 PMB High Cluster Per Beneficiary per Annum R 6,000 Restricted Schemes Public Sector Centre for Actuarial Research Exempt Scheme Benefits 2000 Total Benefits pbpm by Scheme 2000 335 Overall Registered 205 Overall Exempt 501 M EDCOR 76 Electrical Industry (Cape) 10 Natal Furniture Wo rkers Sick B enefit So ciety 40 Furniture & A llied Wo rkers Sick B enefit So ciety(S.W.D.) 36 Natal Hairdressers Sick B enefit Fund 203 Hairmed 344 Scheme M o to r Industry M edical A id Fund (M IM ED) 87 A uto wo rkers M edical A id Fund (A uto med) East Lo ndo n B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (ELB IM A F) 187 Clothing Industry 42 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (Western Cape) Building Industry 128 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (Gauteng) 99 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (Eastern Cape) Motor Industry 29 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (B lo emfo ntein) MEDCOR 51 B argaining Co uncil fo r the B uilding Industry (Kimberly) 23 Knitting Industry M edical B enefit So ciety (No rthern A reas) Hairdressing Industry 26 Clo thing Industry Sick B enefit Fund (Natal) Furniture Industry 32 Clo thing Industry M edical B enefit So ciety (No rthern A reas) 26 Clo thing Industry M edical B enefit Scheme (FS & NC) Electrical Industry 21 Clo thing Industry Health Care Fund (Cape To wn) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Rands pbpm Low cluster PMB contribution for public sector in 2001 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2000 Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Published Contribution Tables Centre for Actuarial Research Options Available to Benchmark Family Weighted industry PMB package for a family of four Options R 640.33 per month 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Contributions per fam ily per m onth Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research Primary Care Network Options 843 Fedsure Larona PrimeCure 638 Ingwe PrimeCure 728 Ingwe CareCross 966 Medihelp Nucleus 730 Medimed PrimeCure 824 Medimed ECIPA, UDIPA 657 Metropolitan Primary Plus 576 MSP/Sizwe PrimeCure 780 MSP/Sizwe Ecipamed 904 MSP/Sizwe MediCross 732 NMP PrimeCure 280 Protector Health Primary 480 Protector Health Primary Plus 841 Provia SilverCure 810 Spectramed Spectra Alliance 672 Topmed Bophelo Network 635 Vulamed Standard 321 Low cluster PMB Public Sector 489 Low cluster PMB Private Sector 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Contribution per family per month Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Income Centre for Actuarial Research Income Levels Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 4.6% 3.7% 8.2% R0 Don't know or missing R1-R799 R800-R1 800 13.5% 47.1% R1 800-R2 499 R2 500-R4 999 R5 000-R9 999 R10 000+ Refuse 5.0% 7.4% 5.0% Source : OHS 1999 5.4% Centre for Actuarial Research Income Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 800,000 700,000 600,000 Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 Don't know or missing R0 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research Possible SHI Income Earners 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Part of a medical scheme 2,000,000 Potential Potential SHI Part of a medical scheme Public Sector 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Source : OHS 1999 Don't know or missing Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 R0 0 Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions on Affordability Comparing actual benefit expenditure and contributions to PMB package: at industry level, PMB package was well covered. There should thus be no upward pressure on contributions from Prescribed Minimum Benefits. Comparing published options prices to PMB package: showed conclusively that the current packages on offer by open schemes were way in excess of the price of the PMB package for the industry. In some cases the prices were four or five times the price of the PMB package. Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions on Affordability The conclusion must be that there is substantial room to reduce the current benefit offerings in the industry to something closer to the price of the PMB package plus an additional amount for routine primary care. The industry needs to critically examine benefit offerings for 2004 and begin the designs with a focus on the PMB package. Centre for Actuarial Research Policy Issues Centre for Actuarial Research Understanding of PMBs It has become apparent during this research that the introduction of Prescribed Minimum Benefits with effect from 1 January 2000 has barely impacted the industry. Very few schemes are able to isolate PMB expenditure from other benefits. Of even greater concern is how few medical practitioners seem to have heard of PMBs. Thus at the critical interface with patients there is little knowledge of the rights of medical scheme beneficiaries to treatment for the PMB conditions. It is certainly not in the interests of schemes to educate practitioners and this critical role must be taken on centrally by the Department of Health or the Council for Medical Schemes. Centre for Actuarial Research Community-rated PMB Price The comparison of options prices in open schemes for the benchmark family shows a wide divergence of prices. Members should be facing a common community-rated price for the PMB package and not a price determined by each scheme according to its own demographic profile and illness burden. Now that a price has been conclusively determined for the PMB package for the industry, this can facilitate work on a risk equalisation mechanism between schemes that covers the benefits in the PMB package. Centre for Actuarial Research Future Pensioner Philosophy 43% Do Not Offer Benefits to New Employees 60% 26% Cap Company Contribution 16% 15% Cash or Benefits in lieu of Medical Cap Benefits 6% 12% 1% 1999 2001 4% 7% Eligibility Criteria Changed 0% 10% 20% Source : OMHC Health Survey 2001 30% 40% 50% 60% Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners From the study findings, it is evident that pensioners are already vulnerable and that they will increasingly find contributions to medical schemes difficult to afford, given that medical contribution increases have exceed pension increases. Added to this is the changing structure of employee benefits in such a way that future pensioners will be unlikely to have a subsidy for medical benefits in retirement. The study describes the subsidy issue as a future time bomb and this issue needs to be placed on the agenda now. Centre for Actuarial Research Impact of Per Capita Subsidy Single Adult No subsidy Family of Four R 800 pa R1 000 pa R 800 pa R1 000 pa No subsidy subsidy subsidy subsidy subsidy Complete PMB Package Price pmpm in 2001 R 124.26 R 57.59 R 40.93 R 321.15 R 54.48 -R 12.18 Effective price to the member R 124.26 R 57.59 R 40.93 R 321.15 R 54.48 R 0.00 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 3.7% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Monthly Income Bands OHS99 More than R10 000 R5 000 to R9 999 R2 500 to R4 999 R1 800 to R2 499 R 800 to R1 800 R 1 to R 799 Proportion of Income 1.1% 1.5% 3.0% 5.2% 8.6% 27.8% 0.5% 0.7% 1.4% 2.4% 4.0% 12.9% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.7% 2.8% 9.2% 2.9% 3.8% 7.7% 13.4% 22.1% 71.8% Centre for Actuarial Research Per-capita Subsidy The study also attempts to put into context the per capita subsidy mooted in the Taylor Committee report. It was demonstrated that this subsidy could have enormous impact on the affordability of healthcare for lowincome families. This impact is subject to the final amount of the subsidy and the exact form it will take. There is no doubt that a subsidy of this nature has a farreaching impact on affordability of the PMB package for low-income groups and clarity on proposals is now needed. Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Contracting The price of the PMB package in the public sector, which lies at the heart of affordability for the low-cost options and the Bargaining Council schemes, now needs further work by the public sector itself. Medical schemes need to know at what price they can contract for the delivery of benefits in the public sector and these contracts need to be facilitated at a national level. The impact of this additional substantial network to the current hospital networks offered by the private sector should have a galvanising effect on hospital benefit negotiations for 2004. Centre for Actuarial Research Total Expenditure on Prescribed Minimum Benefits To put the size of the business in context, total expenditure on the PMB package using the Weighted industry price would have been R 14.573 billion in 2001. The estimated price for delivery of the package in the public sector would have been R 9.460 billion. This covers only registered schemes. A further amount of R 0.268 billion would be added to the public sector total for those Bargaining Council schemes reporting in 2001. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE) A Research Unit of the University of Cape Town A Research Report Prepared Under Contract for the Council for Medical Schemes Centre for Actuarial Research