Centre for Actuarial Research The Impact of PMBs on Affordability January 2003 Approach to Affordability Compare price of components of PMB package to reported benefits and contributions of medical schemes. Industry level Scheme level Option level Compare price of PMB package to published contribution tables for open scheme options. Focus on low-cost options. Compare price of PMB package to income levels of existing members and potential members of medical schemes. Impact of employer and per capita subsidies. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of the PMB Package Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis Different clusters experience different benefit utilisation, costs and disease profiles. Provider behaviour differs by cluster, even within the same hospital facility. Four distinct clusters: High contains options with older, 'whiter' members with high utilisation; Medium-older contains options with medium utilisation and older members; Medium-younger contains options with medium utilisation and younger members; and Low contains options with younger, 'blacker' members with low utilisation. Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis 8.8% High 9.6% Medium-older Medium-younger Low 10.1% 71.6% Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis Study contains more Low cluster beneficiaries than the industry. For industry comparisons, use Weighted industry price. This uses 50% of the costs of the Low cluster and 100% of the other clusters. Low cluster is more relevant to the emerging low-cost option environment. High cluster is used to give an upper limit to the PMB price. Would only be applicable to a few high utilisation options. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of Inpatient and Outpatient Package Non-healthcare costs Outpatient package Uncertainty in PMB definition Inpatient PMB package R 2,500 Per Beneficiary Per Annum R 2,250 R 2,000 R 1,750 R 1,500 R 1,250 R 1,000 R 750 R 500 R 250 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Price of CDL Package R 1,500 Non-healthcare costs Per Beneficiary Per Annum Medical management est. Uncertainty in CDL R 1,250 CDL Medicine Package R 1,000 R 750 R 500 R 250 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Additional Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Price of Complete PMB Package Non-healthcare costs CDL Medicine Package Ambulatory PMB package Inpatient PMB package R 4,000 Per Beneficiary Per Annum R 3,500 R 3,000 R 2,500 R 2,000 R 1,500 R 1,000 R 500 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Private Sector PMB Package per beneficiary per annum Price pbpa in 2001 Rand terms Inpatient PMB package Ambulatory PMB package CDL Medicine Package Non-healthcare costs Complete PMB package Private Sector High and Medium Low R 1,994.95 R 1,591.46 R 867.47 R 1,073.31 R 1,188.01 R 477.24 R 416.72 R 308.12 R 339.00 R 356.20 R 1,154.35 R 805.33 R 286.33 R 421.58 R 499.09 R 170.96 R 141.97 R 89.55 R 104.82 R 113.47 R 3,797.50 R 2,955.48 R 1,551.47 R 1,938.71 R 2,156.78 High Total Study Weighted Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure on PMB Package Non-healthcare Expenditure as a Proportion of … High Mediumolder MediumYounger High and Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Total Inpatient package 3.9% 4.0% 5.0% 4.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.7% Total Outpatient package 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% Total CDL package 5.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.4% 7.8% 7.3% 7.2% Complete PMB package 4.5% 4.7% 5.4% 4.8% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3% Well below Registrar’s benchmark of 10% of total expenditure Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Complete PMB Package Private sector cost Total CDL package Total Outpatient package Total Inpatient package R 4,000 Per Beneficiary Per Annum R 3,500 R 3,000 R 2,500 R 2,000 R 1,500 R 1,000 R 500 R0 High Medium- Medium- High and older Younger Medium Low Total Study Weighted Total Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector PMB Package per beneficiary per annum Price pbpa in 2001 Rand terms High and Medium Low R 1,465.44 R 1,173.53 R 648.89 R 798.05 R 881.17 Total Outpatient package R 251.27 R 207.78 R 129.64 R 151.85 R 164.23 Total CDL package R 708.76 R 520.56 R 237.08 R 311.83 R 354.66 R 2,425.48 R 1,901.87 R 1,015.61 R 1,261.73 R 1,400.07 Total Inpatient package Complete PMB package Public Sector High Total Study Weighted Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Price of PMB Package by Age 12,000 Total CDL package Total Outpatient package 10,000 Total Inpatient package Complete PMB package Public sector 6,000 4,000 2,000 All ages Missing 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 0 Price pbpa 8,000 Centre for Actuarial Research Price of PMB Package by Age Note that for all age bands over 40, the PMB price by age exceeds the community-rated PMB price. This explains the incentive open schemes have to attract and retain younger and healthier members. Centre for Actuarial Research Complete PMB Package for family of four per month Price per family per month (2001 Rands) High Total Inpatient package R 556.37 R 466.84 R 291.98 R 345.27 R 373.29 R 98.28 R 84.98 R 59.00 R 66.93 R 71.09 Toal CDL package R 338.95 R 259.47 R 138.33 R 176.00 R 195.94 Complete PMB package Private Sector R 993.59 R 811.28 R 489.31 R 588.19 R 640.33 Complete PMB package Public Sector R 638.26 R 525.01 R 321.15 R 383.75 R 416.76 Total Outpatient package High and Medium Low Total Study Weighted Industry Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Benefits Centre for Actuarial Research Beneficiaries 2001 Bargaining Council Schemes 3.8% Restricted Schemes 28.3% Open Schemes 67.9% Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research Hospital Only R 1,600 1,434 Per Beneficiary per Annum R 1,400 1,375 1,339 1,253 R 1,200 R 1,000 854 R 800 624 R 600 R 400 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 All Registered Schemes Restricted Schemes Open Schemes PMB High Cluster PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB Industry Weighted R 200 Centre for Actuarial Research Hospital and Related 2,342 1,902 R 2,000 1,817 1,877 1,414 R 1,500 1,046 R 1,000 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 All Registered Schemes Restricted Schemes Open Schemes PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB High Cluster R 500 PMB Industry Weighted Per Beneficiary per Annum R 2,500 Centre for Actuarial Research Medicine Per Beneficiary per Annum R 1,400 1,342 1,154 R 1,200 1,181 1,112 R 1,000 R 800 R 600 R 400 499 286 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 All Registered Schemes Restricted Schemes Open Schemes PMB High Cluster PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB Industry Weighted R 200 Centre for Actuarial Research Total Benefits R 5,000 4,833 4,488 4,591 Per Beneficiary per Annum R 4,500 R 4,000 3,627 R 3,500 R 3,000 R 2,500 2,043 R 2,000 1,462 R 1,500 R 1,000 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 All Registered Schemes Restricted Schemes Open Schemes PMB High Cluster PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB Industry Weighted R 500 Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Contributions Centre for Actuarial Research Total Contributions Savings Contributions Pooled Contributions 599 R 5,000 433 549 3,798 R 4,000 2,157 R 2,000 4,877 5,192 4,971 All Registered Schemes R 3,000 Restricted Schemes Per Beneficiary per Annum R 6,000 1,551 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Open Schemes PMB High Cluster PMB Low Cluster R0 PMB Industry Weighted R 1,000 Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure 2001 Broker fees 5.4% Managed Care 18.4% Own facility cost 0.0% Other 0.0% Nett Reinsurance 6.2% Bad debts 3.7% Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Administration 66.2% Centre for Actuarial Research Real Non-Healthcare Expenditure 180 160 140 Real Rands pmpm (2001 Rands) Bad debts Other Managed Care Administration Nett Reinsurance Own facility cost Broker fees 120 100 80 60 40 20 Year Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 0 Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure R 1,000 921 Administration and Managed Care 169 R 800 786 110 R 700 R 600 501 5 R 500 752 676 R 300 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Restricted Schemes R0 Open Schemes 113 - 496 171 - PMB High Cluster R 100 90 - PMB Industry Weighted R 200 All Registered Schemes R 400 PMB Low Cluster Per Beneficiary per Annum R 900 Other Non-Healthcare Centre for Actuarial Research 5,475 5,625 5,520 All Registered Schemes R 5,000 Private Sector Public Sector 3,798 R 4,000 R 3,000 2,425 2,157 R 2,000 1,551 1,400 1,016 PMB Industry Weighted PMB Low Cluster R0 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Open Schemes R 1,000 PMB High Cluster Per Beneficiary per Annum R 6,000 Restricted Schemes Public Sector Centre for Actuarial Research Bargaining Council Schemes Centre for Actuarial Research Bargaining Council Schemes R 1,200 PMB Low Cluster 1,046 Bargaining Council schemes Per Beneficiary per Annum R 1,000 R 800 624 R 600 R 400 286 R 200 106 78 78 R0 Hospital only Hospital plus related Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Total Medicine Centre for Actuarial Research Bargaining Council Schemes R 1,800 Per Beneficiary per Annum R 1,600 PMB Low Cluster 1,551 Bargaining Council schemes 1,462 R 1,400 R 1,200 1,016 R 1,000 R 800 R 600 412 471 471 R 400 R 200 R0 Total Benefits Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Contributions Public Sector Centre for Actuarial Research Exempt Scheme Benefits 2000 Total Benefits pbpm by Industry 2000 600 Bargaining Council Schemes reporting in 2001 Low cluster PMB contribution for public sector in 2001 500.7 500 Rands pbpm 400 335.0 300 219.6 205.1 200 157.4 93.5 100 84.6 75.6 34.3 22.7 14.1 0 Clothing Industry Building Industry Motor Industry Hairdressing Industry Furniture Industry MEDCOR Electrical Overall Exempt Industry (Cape) Overall Registered Industry Source : Registrar’s Returns 2000 Centre for Actuarial Research Exempt Scheme Benefits 2000 Total Benefits pbpm by Scheme 2000 335 Overall Registered 205 Overall Exempt 501 M EDCOR 76 Electrical Industry (Cape) 10 Natal Furniture Wo rkers Sick B enefit So ciety 40 Furniture & A llied Wo rkers Sick B enefit So ciety(S.W.D.) 36 Natal Hairdressers Sick B enefit Fund 203 Hairmed 344 Scheme M o to r Industry M edical A id Fund (M IM ED) 87 A uto wo rkers M edical A id Fund (A uto med) East Lo ndo n B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (ELB IM A F) 187 Clothing Industry 42 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (Western Cape) Building Industry 128 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (Gauteng) 99 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (Eastern Cape) Motor Industry 29 B uilding Industry M edical A id Fund (B lo emfo ntein) MEDCOR 51 B argaining Co uncil fo r the B uilding Industry (Kimberly) 23 Knitting Industry M edical B enefit So ciety (No rthern A reas) Hairdressing Industry 26 Clo thing Industry Sick B enefit Fund (Natal) Furniture Industry 32 Clo thing Industry M edical B enefit So ciety (No rthern A reas) 26 Clo thing Industry M edical B enefit Scheme (FS & NC) Electrical Industry 21 Clo thing Industry Health Care Fund (Cape To wn) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Rands pbpm Low cluster PMB contribution for public sector in 2001 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2000 Centre for Actuarial Research Impact on Low-Cost Options Centre for Actuarial Research Options Available to Benchmark Family Weighted industry PMB package for a family of four Options R 640.33 per month 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Contributions per fam ily per m onth Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research Primary Care Network Options 843 Fedsure Larona PrimeCure 638 Ingwe PrimeCure 728 Ingwe CareCross 966 Medihelp Nucleus 730 Medimed PrimeCure 824 Medimed ECIPA, UDIPA 657 Metropolitan Primary Plus 576 MSP/Sizwe PrimeCure 780 MSP/Sizwe Ecipamed 904 MSP/Sizwe MediCross 732 NMP PrimeCure 280 Protector Health Primary 480 Protector Health Primary Plus 841 Provia SilverCure 810 Spectramed Spectra Alliance 672 Topmed Bophelo Network 635 Vulamed Standard 321 Low cluster PMB Public Sector 489 Low cluster PMB Private Sector 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Contribution per family per month Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research Recommendations for Low-Cost Option Design Need contribution less than R500 for family of four earning R4 000 per month. Hospitalisation offered in differential amenities in a public hospital. Specialist services in a public hospital. Chronic medicine offered either in the public hospital or with a strict formulary by the primary care providers. Primary care offered in private sector capitated networks. Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Income Centre for Actuarial Research Income Levels Open Schemes CMS Survey 2001 12.4% 31.7% <2000 2001-3000 3001-4000 28.9% 4001-5000 >5000 14.7% 12.3% Source : Council for Medical Schemes Centre for Actuarial Research Employment Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Unemployed 2.3% Not economically active 24.7% Employed 44.0% Missing or N/A 29.0% Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research Employment Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Unemployed Employed Not economically active Missing or N/A 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research Workers Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Retired (Pensioner) Permanently unable to work Not working Not working (but looking for work) Going to school/college/university Full time homemaker/housewife N/A 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research Income Levels Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 4.6% 3.7% 8.2% R0 Don't know or missing R1-R799 R800-R1 800 13.5% 47.1% R1 800-R2 499 R2 500-R4 999 R5 000-R9 999 R10 000+ Refuse 5.0% 7.4% 5.0% Source : OHS 1999 5.4% Centre for Actuarial Research Income Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 800,000 700,000 600,000 Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 Don't know or missing R0 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research Income Proportion by Age Medical Scheme Beneficiaries 100% 80% Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 Don't know or missing R0 60% 40% 20% Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 0% Centre for Actuarial Research Income Profile All Citizens 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Public Sector Not known Medical Scheme 50% 40% 30% 20% Source : OHS 1999 Not given Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R0 0% R1-R799 10% Centre for Actuarial Research Possible SHI Income Earners 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Part of a medical scheme 2,000,000 Potential Potential SHI Part of a medical scheme Public Sector 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Source : OHS 1999 Don't know or missing Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 R0 0 Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Issues for Pensioners Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 Don't know or missing R0 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners Not in Medical Schemes 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 Refuse R10 000+ R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 Don't know or missing R0 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of the Disabled 7,000 6,000 5,000 Refuse R5 000-R9 999 R2 500-R4 999 R1 800-R2 499 R800-R1 800 R1-R799 Don't know or missing R0 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Source : OHS 1999 (blank) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-45 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1-4 0 - Centre for Actuarial Research 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Rands pmpm Real Contributions 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Year Source : Registrar’s Returns Centre for Actuarial Research Future Pensioner Philosophy 43% Do Not Offer Benefits to New Employees 60% 26% Cap Company Contribution 16% 15% Cash or Benefits in lieu of Medical Cap Benefits 6% 12% 1% 1999 2001 4% 7% Eligibility Criteria Changed 0% 10% 20% Source : OMHC Health Survey 2001 30% 40% 50% 60% Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions on Affordability Comparing actual benefit expenditure and contributions to PMB package: at industry level, PMB package was well covered. There should thus be no upward pressure on contributions from Prescribed Minimum Benefits. Comparing published options prices to PMB package: showed conclusively that the current packages on offer by open schemes were way in excess of the price of the PMB package for the industry. In some cases the prices were four or five times the price of the PMB package. Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions on Affordability The conclusion must be that there is substantial room to reduce the current benefit offerings in the industry to something closer to the price of the PMB package plus an additional amount for routine primary care. The industry needs to critically examine benefit offerings for 2004 and begin the designs with a focus on the PMB package. Centre for Actuarial Research Further Research on Affordability Calculate price of PMB package for each scheme using age profile of that scheme. Compare to community-rated price of PMB package. Compare price of PMB package to disposable income of households. Maximum proportion of income to be spent on healthcare. More information on employer subsidy policy. Impact of per capita subsidy, once shape of subsidy finalised. Centre for Actuarial Research Policy Issues Centre for Actuarial Research Understanding of PMBs It has become apparent during this research that the introduction of Prescribed Minimum Benefits with effect from 1 January 2000 has barely impacted the industry. Very few schemes are able to isolate PMB expenditure from other benefits. Of even greater concern is how few medical practitioners seem to have heard of PMBs. Thus at the critical interface with patients there is little knowledge of the rights of medical scheme beneficiaries to treatment for the PMB conditions. It is certainly not in the interests of schemes to educate practitioners and this critical role must be taken on centrally by the Department of Health or the Council for Medical Schemes. Centre for Actuarial Research Community-rated PMB Price The comparison of options prices in open schemes for the benchmark family shows a wide divergence of prices. Members should be facing a common community-rated price for the PMB package and not a price determined by each scheme according to its own demographic profile and illness burden. Now that a price has been conclusively determined for the PMB package for the industry, this can facilitate work on a risk equalisation mechanism between schemes that covers the benefits in the PMB package. Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners From the study findings, it is evident that pensioners are already vulnerable and that they will increasingly find contributions to medical schemes difficult to afford, given that medical contribution increases have exceed pension increases. Added to this is the changing structure of employee benefits in such a way that future pensioners will be unlikely to have a subsidy for medical benefits in retirement. The study describes the subsidy issue as a future time bomb and this issue needs to be placed on the agenda now. Centre for Actuarial Research Impact of Per Capita Subsidy Single Adult No subsidy Family of Four R 800 pa R1 000 pa R 800 pa R1 000 pa No subsidy subsidy subsidy subsidy subsidy Complete PMB Package Price pmpm in 2001 R 124.26 R 57.59 R 40.93 R 321.15 R 54.48 -R 12.18 Effective price to the member R 124.26 R 57.59 R 40.93 R 321.15 R 54.48 R 0.00 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 3.7% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Monthly Income Bands OHS99 More than R10 000 R5 000 to R9 999 R2 500 to R4 999 R1 800 to R2 499 R 800 to R1 800 R 1 to R 799 Proportion of Income 1.1% 1.5% 3.0% 5.2% 8.6% 27.8% 0.5% 0.7% 1.4% 2.4% 4.0% 12.9% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.7% 2.8% 9.2% 2.9% 3.8% 7.7% 13.4% 22.1% 71.8% Centre for Actuarial Research Per-capita Subsidy The study also attempts to put into context the per capita subsidy mooted in the Taylor Committee report. It was demonstrated that this subsidy could have enormous impact on the affordability of healthcare for lowincome families. This impact is subject to the final amount of the subsidy and the exact form it will take. There is no doubt that a subsidy of this nature has a farreaching impact on affordability of the PMB package for low-income groups and clarity on proposals is now needed. Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Contracting The price of the PMB package in the public sector, which lies at the heart of affordability for the low-cost options and the Bargaining Council schemes, now needs further work by the public sector itself. Medical schemes need to know at what price they can contract for the delivery of benefits in the public sector and these contracts need to be facilitated at a national level. The impact of this additional substantial network to the current hospital networks offered by the private sector should have a galvanising effect on hospital benefit negotiations for 2004. Centre for Actuarial Research Total Expenditure on Prescribed Minimum Benefits To put the size of the business in context, total expenditure on the PMB package using the Weighted industry price would have been R 14.573 billion in 2001. The estimated price for delivery of the package in the public sector would have been R 9.460 billion. This covers only registered schemes. A further amount of R 0.268 billion would be added to the public sector total for those Bargaining Council schemes reporting in 2001. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE) A Research Unit of the University of Cape Town A Research Report Prepared Under Contract for the Council for Medical Schemes Centre for Actuarial Research