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BSPS Seminar, GLA May 2 nd 2006
Professor Philip Rees
Dr Peter Boden

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• Context
• Project objectives
• Concepts & definitions
• TIM Model & National Statistics
• Data Sources
• New Migrant Databank – an analytical framework?

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Components of UK Population Change
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Natural Increase
Net migration and other changes
• Over 65% of UK’s annual increase is now attributable to net

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European GDP per Capita in PPS, 2005 (EU-25=100)
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Source: Eurostat (2005)

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• 2004
582,000 new migrants to the UK, a total net-inflow of
223,000.
• 2005-2030
Net international inflow is projected to remain at a relatively high level for the next 25 years 2 .
• 1994-2003
Net inflow of over 700,000 migrants to Greater London, approximately two-thirds of the national total.

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Source: GAD (2005)

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There is not a single, all-inclusive system in place to measure movements of population into or out of the UK.
ONS, Series MN 2004

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EU Regulation
• The regulation will require EU Member States to produce annually, a full set of statistics on international migration and asylum (from
2007)
THESIM
• Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration
• Analysis of the implications of the new EU Regulation and a series of recommendations for implementation

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• For London, the need to adequately plan its service provision is critical to the socio-economic development of its communities
• Housing, transport, health, environment
• A key driver is robust measurement of the new migrant population, including refugees and asylum seekers.
• Scale, composition, distribution

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Estimating London’s
New Migrant Population
UK
GORs
Migrant characteristics
London
Boroughs

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Benchmark
– Summarise the new migrant statistical picture (availability, consistency, quality)
Sponsor
– Understand GLA methodologies and data sources
Stakeholders
– Incorporate views of other London stakeholder bodies
National Bodies / UK Regions
– Integrate review process with activities and requirements of other stakeholder bodies

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UK International Passenger Arrivals and Departures
Including Migration Flows
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Short-term migrants
Long-term migrants
Long-term migrant (UN definition)
• A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12 mths or more
• Basis for UK statistics on total annual immigration and emigration
Short-term migrant
• A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 3-12 months
• Not part of the UK statistics delivery

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Stocks
• Resident migrants
Flows
• New migrants

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Moves e.g. GP registration
Transitions e.g. Census

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+ net Irish Flows
+ net visitor switcher flows
net migrant switcher Flows
+ net asylum seeker flows

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Inflow Outflow Netflow
Total International Migration
(TIM)
IPS migrants
Irish CSO migrants
Asylum seeker adjustments
Visitor switcher adjustments
Migrant switcher adjustments
512,600 361,500 151,000
431,500
5,000
53,600
44,100
(21,600)
314,000
13,100
16,800
20,800
(3,100)
117,500
(8,100)
36,800
23,200
(18,400)
Source: ONS (2005)

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Short-term vs long-term migrants
• Introduction of new IPS question in 2004 to identify short-term migrants with an intended length of stay of 3-6 months
Household surveys to estimate sub-national distributions
• Census, LFS & IPS
NHS administrative data to estimate sub-national distributions
• Initial investigation looks promising for in-migrant estimation but not for emigration due to poor coverage.

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Evaluating each data source…

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Migration Data Sources: Key Features

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Migration Data Sources: Key Variables

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LFS vs Census
• Comparison of LFS and Census migrant data for 2001 at
GOR level.
• Suggests LFS provides a credible source of migrant data
• LFS provides a complementary source of data for regional distribution of in-migrants

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NHS Registration Statistics

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NHS Data Analysis
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• Comparative analysis of Patient Register Data and TIM estimates has been undertaken:
– Newham LB
– Brent LB
• NHS registration data is used extensively by ONS for the measurement of internal migration.
• NHSCR/PRDS now being evaluated for its potential as a proxy measure of international migration.

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• David Ewens at GLA has completed an analysis of ethnicity and attainment in Greater London using the LPD.
• Linking successive annual datasets (2002 and 2003 in this case) it is possible to identify ‘new entrants’ to the education system
• The study has illustrated pupil mobility grouped by ethnicity and by whether or not their mother tongue is
English.

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Source: National Insurance Number Allocations to Overseas Nationals Entering the UK
DWP Information Directorate © Crown Copyright 2005

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• HO statistics are for non-EEA only.
• UK Address is recorded on each Landing Card but is not captured.

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Source:
Accession Monitoring Report
May-Sept 2004
Home Office, DWP, HMRC, ODPM
© Crown Copyright 2004

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• Increasing need to better understand (measure) the complex process of international migration.
– European scale
– National level
– Sub-nationally !!
• Are we making best use of the data that is available?

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An Analytical Framework?

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• Concepts, definitions, time-periods, data quality, sample size, frequency of collection all pose problems for accurately measuring new migrants.
• However, a variety of sources of data exist, providing a complementary view of new migrants.

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• The New Migrant Databank (NMD) should be established, together with an appropriate ‘reporting’ framework, to create a unique and integrated source of intelligence on new migrant activity.
• Given its long-term value to users across regions, and the data inputs it would need, construction of the NMD should be planned as a partnership venture to include ONS .

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• Using the NMD, comparative analysis of alternative datasets should be completed at a detailed geographical level and for specific migrant demographic profiles.
• Integration of new data into the migrant estimation process when robustness and reliability are assured.
– Distributions
– Counts
– Profiles
• Running in parallel with ONS NSQR programme

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• Relative levels of short-term and long-term migration should be explored through partnership work on the
NMD, using statistics from the IPS and LFS.

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• To improve the robustness of statistics derived from
TIM, the LFS should be used (in preference to the IPS) to derive revised estimates of new migrant flows for
London, subject to validation against the NHSCR.
• Age-sex profiles should be applied to these new estimates using migrant profiles from the NHSCR/LFS , validated against the Census..

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YEAR 2001
SOURCE Census
FLOW Migrants
2005 2005
TIM
All
IPS migrants Long term
2005
VS
Visitor switchers
2005
MS
Migrant switchers
2005 2005 2005 Q2 2005 Q2
NASS
Asylum
IPS LFS LFS
Seekers Short term Long term Short term
2005
NPD
Pupils
2004-5
PRDS
Over 12 mths
2004-5
NINo
Over 12 mths
2004-5
WRS
2005 Indicators
Average (1) Average (2)
Regist'ns Long term Short term
COUNTS
INFLOWS
UK
London
Barking and Dagenham
:
Westminster
600,000
212,000
5,000
:
8,000
OUTFLOWS
UK
London
Barking and Dagenham
:
Westminster
400,000
100,000
3,000
:
5,000
NETFLOWS
UK
London
Barking and Dagenham
:
Westminster
200,000
112,000
2,000
:
3,000
582,000
190,000
4,000
10,000
95,000
5,000
4,500
:
385,000
:
523,000
179,000
3,800
:
9,000
370,000
90,000
4,800
:
4,400
197,000
95,000
- 1,000
:
5,500
153,000
89,000
- 1,000
:
4,600
60,000
20,000
1,000
30,000
11,000
500
:
100
:
300
- 1,000
-
-
-
-
-
300
700
200
-
-
10
:
5
5
:
20
30,000
9,000
400
:
700
- 300
- 100
- 5
:
15
40,000
20,000
300
:
1,000
2,000
:
800
30
:
50
38,000
19,200
270
950
700,000
213,000
5,000
6,039
20,000
23,000
:
-
-
:
6,010
680,000
190,000
5,000
:
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SHARES
INFLOWS
UK
London
Barking and Dagenham
:
Westminster
100.00
35.33
0.83
:
1.33
OUTFLOWS
UK
London
Barking and Dagenham
:
Westminster
100.00
25.00
0.75
:
1.25
NETFLOWS
UK
London
Barking and Dagenham
:
Westminster
100.00
56.00
1.00
:
1.50
Notes
1 & 3
24.68
1.30
100.00
0.69
1.72
100.00
:
1.17
100.00
32.65
48.22
-
:
0.51
:
2.79
24.32
1.30
100.00
100.00
100.00
34.23
58.17
-
0.73
:
1.72
:
1.19
0.65
:
3.01
100.00
33.33
0.83
1.67
100.00
36.67
100.00
30.00
:
0.33
:
1.00
1.33
:
2.33
100.00
30.00
100.00
-
1.00
:
0.50
28.57
0.71
:
2.86
100.00
33.33
1.67
:
5.00
100.00
40.00
1.50
100.00
50.00
0.75
2.50
:
2.50
100.00
:
50.53
0.71
:
2.50
27.94
0.74
100.00
30.43
0.71
:
0.86
100.00
:
0.89
100.00
115.00
-
-
:
0.15
Average of all migrant source estimates = TIM, LFS long term, PRDS, NINo
650,000
180,000
200,000
30,000
1,000
:
7,000
80,000
70,000
- 1,000
-
:
1,000
33.33
0.44
100.00
100.00
3,000
10,000
15.00
:
450,000
150,000
2,000
100.00
:
3,000
27.69
0.46
:
1.54
:
0.67
0.50
:
3.50
400,000
150,000
1,000
:
5,000
320,000
100.00
37.50
100.00
25.00
0.63
80,000
100.00
2,000
87.50
-
-
0.25
1.25
:
1.88
1.25
1.25
2 & 4
:
6,000
:
:
85,000
40,000
1,000
:
4,000
-
-
-
-
:
85,000
40,000
1,000
:
4,000
100.00
47.06
1.18
:
4.71
na na na na
100.00
47.06
1.18
:
4.71
555,000
215,000
1,250
6,000
-
-
-
-
:
555,000
215,000
1,250
:
6,000
100.00
38.74
0.23
1.08
na na na na
100.00
38.74
:
0.23
:
1.08
425,000
139,000
425,000
139,000
500
500
-
-
-
-
:
4,500
:
4,500
100.00
32.71
0.12
:
1.06
na na na na
100.00
32.71
0.12
:
1.06
200,000
70,000
2,000
3,000
-
-
-
-
:
:
200,000
70,000
2,000
100.00
:
3,000
35.00
1.00
1.50
na na na na
100.00
35.00
:
1.00
:
1.50
553,000
181,000
2,188
417,500
122,500
3,500
3,750
198,500
62,500
0
6,250
Average (3) Average (4)
Long term
100.00
32.90
0.40
1.30
100.00
29.00
0.90
0.90
100.00
31.60
0.00
3.10
550,000
181,500
3,000
500,000
135,000
3,500
6,020
500,000
46,500
(500)
(515)
Short term
100.00
34.00
0.50
1.10
100.00
26.50
0.70
1.40
100.00
101.30
(0.60)
(0.70)
Average of short term migrants estimates = IPS short term, LFS short term

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