Migration, multiculturalism - a
brief history of the mix
Danny Dorling, London City Hall, 2 May 2006
cohesion:
Thanks to Bethan Thomas, Jan
Rigby and researchers at SASI
the state of cohering or sticking together
Derek Beacon, 1993:
“..once claimed that a local housing estate in East
London, Masthouse Terrace, was almost entirely
Asian, and a ‘no go areas’ for whites. When told that
the Asian population was 28 per cent, he replied that
this was more than half…”
(Leech, 2005, p.95)
Migration, multiculturalism
This talk will look at the history of migration
to Britain from 1841 to 2001 as
documented by the censuses and for key
areas of origin. It will address questions
ranging from: "from where have we
come?" to "why this many migrants now"
and "what cultural mix are we"?
It ends by asking – “so what do we do”?
“from where have we come?“
a first dozen places…
Those dozen - proportionally
10
9
Percentage of People
8
7
6
Born outside Dozen
5
4
3
2
1
0
1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Year
And the rest…
100
90
Percentage of People
80
70
60
Born in Britain
50
Born outside Dozen
40
30
20
10
0
1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Year
The rise of the other..
Percentage of People Born Outside Britain
120
other born outside Britain
100
Germany
Poland
Russia
80
Caribbean
Bangladesh
60
Pakistan
India
Indian Empire
40
Ceylon/Sri Lanka
British Empire
Northern Ireland
20
Ireland
0
1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Year
Take a little time
• To think outside of Britain
• To think about the history of migration
• To think about from where people come
• To where they are going
• Gross flows then net
• Around the globe
• What does the world of
Immigration look like?
www.worldmapper.org
People not living in their country of birth
www.worldmapper.org
• Where people born abroad were born
www.worldmapper.org
Net immigration – who gains how many?
www.worldmapper.org
Net emmigration – who has lost how many?
“why this many migrants now?”
• Think back to Britain
• It is not just that more folk are moving round the
world – it is not that easy to move around.
• Not all places are equal
• Some choose to allow more in
• And are then disingenuous about
their choices. They are disingenuous
perhaps when they do not understand
what they are doing – or the markets
of human supply and demand they create.
The last law of Migration…
Does immigration occur predictably?
• "It was a remark of the late Dr. William
Farr, to the effect that migration appeared
to go on without any definite law, which
first directed my attention to [the]
subject...."
(Ravenstein 1885:JRSS p.167-235).
Annual Births and Net Emigration, England
and Wales, 1840-2000
1000000
150000
100000
50000
500000
0
births
emigrants
-50000
-100000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
-150000
1840
0
Numbers of births are scaled shown by the left vertical axis, and net migration
by the right-hand vertical axis - labelled emigration as the balance is shown
as positive when out-migration is higher than in-migration.
Annual Births and Net Cohort Emigration,
England and Wales, 1840-2000
1000000
150000
100000
50000
500000
0
births
emigrants
-50000
-100000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
-150000
1840
0
net cohort migration, labelled here emigrants, has not been measured over
the course of a single year but over the course of the lifetimes of the people
born in each year. Net cohort migration is most simply calculated by
subtracting from births in an area in a year the number of deaths recorded in
that area of people born in that particular year over the subsequent century.
Births (in) by net-cohort-emigration (from),
England and Wales 1840-1975
100000
Emigrants
less
immigrants of
those born in
each year
(cohort
lifetime
statistics, and
estimates
1901
onwards)
1840-1900
1901-1950
1951-1975
0
-100000
500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000
Births in each year (numbers)
"what cultural mix are we"?
• How could there be “dangerous
concentrations” of groups of immigrants
living in Britain wielding threats and power,
clustered together?
• Is national culture being eroded?
• Start with the census and
With children…
Immigration
(children)
• “Foreign born” children in the
majority in Buckley, Connah's Quay
and Rural Montgomeryshire .
• More than one in seven infants born
abroad in Chelsea, Hyde Park,
Kensington, Mildenhall, and Walton.
• Outside of Britain the 3rd, 4th, 5th and
6th most popular countries of origin
for children are Pakistan, South
Africa, India and Bangladesh.
• The 7th to 13th: France, Australia,
Northern Ireland, Ireland, Hong
Kong, Nigeria and Japan.
• The 1st and 2nd are Germany and
the United States of America.
2nd max birthplac e, 0-15
Bangladesh
Caribbean
China
England
France
Germany
Hong K ong
India
Ireland
Japan
Netherlands
Nigeria
Pakistan
Scotland
South A frica
USA
W ales
Zimbabwe
North A frica
Other Central & W es tern Af rica
Other Eas tern Europe
Other EU
Other Far E ast
Other Middle East
Other South As ia
Other Southern A frica
Segregation, innumeracy and
malice
• Around April Fool’s day, 2006 a small group
released a story to the media in Britain claiming
that a poll they had commissioned from the
polling organisation “YouGov” showed that “73%
agreed (35% strongly) that Britain was becoming
increasingly segregated…”.
• The “question” that had been asked of the twenty
hundred internet surfers that YouGov pay for their
views was:
• “I am concerned that British society is
becoming increasingly racially segregated”
• Strongly agree, Agree, Neither agree nor
disagree, Disagree, Strongly disagree
• Although the YouGov “question” is not a question,
and it is leading, it is worth asking how, if this poll
is in any way valid, almost three quarters of the
population came to believe this to be the case?
The rate of people reported as being least concerned in the YouGov survey was lowest
amongst women, amongst people aged under 30 and, in England, lowest in London.
Women and young people tend to be better educated - especially those aged under thirty
living in London. The easiest example I have to understand the numbers is this:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The example is of two time periods, two areas and two groups. The numbers are of
people:
1980s
White
Black
North
98
2
South
96
4
1990s
White
Black
North
96
4
South
92
8
You have two hundred people, almost all of whom are white living in two places at
two points in time. There were three black couples in the 1980s. One couple lives in
the North, the other two in the South. Over ten years all three couples have two
children each. They label their children black in the census like themselves. There
are now 12 black people in the country rather than six. Meanwhile the aging White
population, on aggregate, declines - conveniently in such a way that the maths is
made easy. The traditional index of segregation remains stable for the Black group. At
both points in time one in six of the black folk would have to move area (from south to
north) to be evenly distributed. However the index of isolation doubles for the same
Black group (and the very high index of isolation for the White group falls ever so
slightly as is in case in with the UK).
““so what do we do”?”
• Study more as what you find is surprising.
• Send Messages (Lancashire council)
• Look for what is really going
wrong (wealthy inequalities,
opportunity inequalities,
fairness, hope, dignity).
• & Check the
National Curriculum
Percentage concentration of Religious groups in deciles of
housing conditions, standardised on the total population, ranked
from w orst to best England 2001- [by Ceri Peach]
1st w orst
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Source: Peach 2005 unpublished
on
o
An e
sw
er
10th best
N
8th
N
Si
kh
O
th
er
tia
n
Bu
dd
hi
st
H
in
du
Je
w
is
h
M
us
li m
C
hr
is
Al
l
7th
9th
Sending messages (on the A687)
Welcome to Lancashire:
a place where everyone
matters
“you are
leaving
north
Yorkshire”
Cohesion: the future
“Pop out these cards and keep them ready to hand out.
Your child will thank you, as will those you hand them to
… send a cheque to mummy and daddy”
www.postoffice.co.uk/savings
Citizenship – The end….
The Edexcel GCSE short
course in Citizenship Studies
is based on the key stage 4
citizenship programme of
study in the National
Curriculum. The teaching of
citizenship at key stage 4 in
England is statutory from
September 2002, for first
examination in June 2003.
http://www.edexcel.org.uk/quals/gcse/citizenship/sc/3280