Household projections in the
South East Regional Plan, and
update on the EiP
Robin Edwards
Hampshire County Council
and Chairman of the Demography Sub
Group, South East England Regional
Assembly
Content
1) Household Projections in the preparation of the
Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East
Region
2) Regional Assembly’s response to the Official
Household Projections at the EiP
3) House price inflation and housing supply
Timetable for Preparation of RSS
• Mid 2003 - technical work commenced
• April 2004 - Spring debates with stakeholders on policy options
• Winter 2004-05 - consultation with South East region residents on
draft policies and proposals
• Mid 2005 - Publication of Draft Plan
• Autumn 2005 - consultation with stakeholders on Draft Plan
• Winter 2005/2006 - Analysis of comments and amendments to
Plan
• April 2006 - Submission of Final Plan
• Summer 2006 - Submission of Responses to the South East
Region Spatial Strategy
• November 2006 - Examination in Public commences
Projections Timetable
• Mid 2003 - official subnational population projections and
household projections 1996 based
• April 2004 - draft 2002 based subnational population
projections published, and 2001 Census results available
• Autumn 2004 - population and household projections
required for inclusion in plan for consultation with S.E.
region residents
• Late 2005/early 2006 - timescale for official 2003 based
household projections
• Not possible to wait for official projections. Therefore,
Regional Assembly Demography sub group chairman
commissioned to produce updated household projections
taking account of most recent data
Data
•
•
•
•
Relative to 1996 based Subnational Population projections,
draft 2002-based projections took account of:
2001 Census base population
GAD 2002 based fertility and mortality rate projections
increased international net in migration
unattributable population change
2001 Census data allowed recalibration of:
• marital status structure
• household composition and household representative rates
Results
Source
DETR 1996 -based
Period
1996-2021
RPG 9
2001-2021
Period
Source
DETR 1996 -based
1996-2021
Reg. Assem. 2002 -based 2002-2027
RPG 9
2001-2021
Reg. Assem. 2002 -based2002-2027
DCLG 2003 -based
2001-2026
DCLG 2003 -based
2001-2026
H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a.
835,000
34,500
Results
N/A
H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a.
835,000
34,500
847,000
N/A
28,000
847,000
890,000
35,000
890,000
36,800
28,000
35,000
36,800
Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05
Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05
2006-2026
N/A
32,000
2006-2026
N/A
32,000
2006-2026
2006-2026
N/A
2006-2026
N/A
2006-2026
N/A
28,000
28,000
25,000
N/A
25,000
Start of EiP
Submitted Plan April 2006
28,900 Dwellings per annum 2006 to 2026
DCLG Household Projections March 2006
38,000 dwellings per annum 2006 to 2026
Criticisms levelled at Housing Proposals in
the RSS for the South East
• Dwellings proposals should be increased to
be consistent with the official household
projections
• There was already a housing crisis in the
South East. Therefore dwellings proposals
should exceed number required to satisfy
official household projections
Regional Assembly EiP response to
Household Projections issue
• 1. Zero Net Migration Projection 2006 to 2026 =
20,000 dwellings per annum
• 2. 28,900 dwellings = 8,600 in migrant h/holds per
annum 19,000 net in migrants)
5,700 and 12,500 if backlog cleared within first 10
years)
• Therefore dwellings in excess of 28,900 not required
to satisfy locally generated need, and any additions
proposed would only draw in additional in migrants
Regional Assembly EiP response to
Household Projections issue (cont)
• 3. 2003 based household projections
- not an assessment of housing need
- ephemeral and subject to revision
- 2004-based Subnational population projections
- 2005 divorce rate
- impact on one person households (change in one person
households headed by divorced people 2001 to 2021
84,100 (1996 based), 211,300 (2003 based)
- 1996 based household rep rates over projected one
person households headed by males in 2001 by 16,000
• No requirement to slavishly follow household projections,
and issues raised above indicate it would be very unwise
to do so
Regional Assembly response to charge of
"Housing crisis" in South East
Indicators of Housing crisis:
• overcrowding
• sharing households
• concealed households
• homeless households
• reduction in household formation rates
Overcrowding
Households over One Person per Room
South East Region
1991
49,643
1.7
2001
43,015
1.3
Sources: 1991 Census, Table 42 & 2001 Census, Table 53
N.B. Censuses do not provide information on bedroom standard
Households Below Bedroom Standard
South East Region
3 Year Av.
2001
60
2002
58
2003
56
2004
55
%
1.81
1.77
1.73
1.68
Source: Survey of English Housing
All Regions
Mean percentages from 2003-04 to 2005-06
Surveys
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Source: Survey of English Housing 2005-06 Table 9
1.7
2.1
1.4
1.6
2.7
1.6
6.6
1.8
1.6
Sharing
Households not in Self Contained Accom
South East Region
No.
%
1991
32,247
1.1
2001
11,037
0.3
Sources: 1991 Census, Table 41. 2001 Census Table 58
Households not in Self Contained Accom
South East Region
3 Year Av.
%
2001
35
1.06
2002
29
0.87
2003
19
0.57
Source: Survey of English Housing
Sharing
Households not in Self Contained Accommodation
All Regions 2003-04 Surveys
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
2.6
0.6
1.0
Source: Survey of English Housing Table S136
Number of Concealed Families
South East Region
% of all
families
1991
34,000
1.6
2001
23,063
1.0
Sources: 1991 Census Table 88; 2001 Census Table 11
N.B Survey of English Housing does not provide information under
this definition
Hundreds
Homelessness - South East Region
160
homeless hholds in
priority Need
140
hholds in temporary
accommodation
120
100
60
40
20
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
No. of hholds
80
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Years
Source: CLG P1E Homelessness returns
2005
2006
Official Projections of Average Household
Size
South East Region
Year
2001
1989-based
2.36
1992-based
2.34
1996-based
2.35
2001 Census
2.36
2001 Census (adjusted)
2.38
Chart
Sales through Right to Buy compared with RSL and
Dwelling completions, 1981-2005 - England
Sales through Right to
Buy
180000
160000
RSL and LA
dwelling completions
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Year
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
0
1981
Number
140000
House Price Inflation and Housing Supply
• Barker Review of Housing Supply - high house
price inflation in the UK results from a shortfall in
supply
• Martin Weale, Director of NIESR - "(house prices
in the UK) are of the order of 20 per cent higher than
can be explained by the interaction of supply and
demand". National Institute Economic Review (Jan
2006)
Barker Review failed to take account of:
• 1. Owner occupiers perception of housing as an
investment, not just a place to live
• 2. Impact of the Buy to Let market
Housing as an Investment
•
•
•
•
•
Do you agree or disagree with the statement:
"Owning your own home is a good long term investment"
Agree - 96 per cent
Survey of English Housing 2004-05.
People are prepared to borrow to the maximum available to them,
in the expectation of making a capital gain
• Mechanisms and agencies involved:
- income multiples
- repayment periods
- interest rates
- estate agencies
Buy to Let
Number of Buy to Value of Buy to
Let Mortgages
Let Mortgages £m
1999
73,200
5,400
2005
701,900
73,400
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, July 2006
Household change by tenure
England
Social
Rented
-316
Private
Rented
78
All Tenures
1995-2000
Owner
Occupied
800
2000-2005
379
-274
368
473
562
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S101)
South East Region
2000-2005
43
-20
40
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S135)
62