Lent Term Seminars 2012
London and the High Speed Rail debate:
How do we get
the Right Line?
Mark Bostock | 20 February 2012
“ I'm in no doubt that the key challenge is to ensure the
transport networks can support the success of
one, the growing urban catchments;
two, key inter-urban corridors; and
three, key international gateways.
These should be the economic priorities for the UK
because they are both highly productive and growing.
These key transport links are heavily used today and
show congestion and reliability problems, which will
get worse. These are the places where transport
constraints hold back economic growth.”
Eddington Transport Study, 1 December 2006
“ This, by any standards
is an extraordinary tale:
a story of a grand
engineering project in
a country that distrusts
grand projects”
The Right Line
BR Proposal
vs
Arup Route
The Arup Route
…it had two unique advantages:
it demolished no houses…
…and could potentially bring huge
regeneration benefits to the blighted
areas through which it would run.
The HS1 Route
The Arup Alignment…
…a deliverable proposition
…for public benefit
Public Benefit Case
International Objective
High Speed London to Continental Europe
Commuter Objective
Increased capacity, speed and quality
Overall Transport Objectives
Modal shift via park and ride
New transport spine for East Thames corridor
Potential for further high speed routes to the north
Development objectives
Open up the Thames Gateway for regeneration
Regenerate the derelict inner city areas
HS1 Benefits
Financial
£ billion
(2008 prices)
3.4
(Net rail revenues)
Transport user benefits
3.8
(Time savings and reduced congestion)
Wider economic benefits
3.8
(Enabling central London growth, reduced
travel costs and improving labour markets)
Regeneration
10.0
(15,000 homes, 70,000 jobs)
(Supporting Government social and economic
development public objectives along Route)
Present value (60 years)
17.6
HS1 capital cost and commuter services
7.3
Source Colin Buchen, Economic Impact of HS1 for LCR January 2009
Original London Connections: 1989
Infrastructure Investment
“ The UK approach to infrastructure
investment has in general been
timid, uncoordinated, incremental,
wasteful in it’s procurement and
insufficiently targeted to supporting
balanced and sustainable growth in
the economy”
Foreword, National Infrastructure Plan, HM Treasury, October 2010
London Airports
with basic infrastructure
Airport charges
index and
distribution
charges
Airport charges index
and distribution charges
Taking the airport to the railway
Original through Heathrow Proposal
“ As a first stage, we have asked the company to
develop a proposal for an entirely new line
between London and the west midlands; that
would enable faster journeys to other destinations
in the north of England and Scotland, using both
existing lines and a new high-speed rail network.”
“ I see a strong case for this new line approaching
London via a Heathrow international hub station
on the Great Western line, to provide a direct fourway interchange between the airport, the new
north-south line, existing Great Western rail
services and Crossrail, into the heart of London.”
15th January 2009:Secretary of State Hoon’s statement to the House of Commons
“ I see a strong case for this new line
approaching London via a Heathrow
international hub station on the Great Western
line, to provide a direct four-way interchange
between the airport, the new north-south line,
existing Great Western rail services and
Crossrail, into the heart of London”
15th January 2009: Secretary of State Hoon’s statement to the House of Commons
The Adonis Alignment: March 2010
High Speed Rail Key Dates
28 June 2007
Ruth Kelly appointed SoS Transport (15 Months)
9 September
Conservative Party supports Arup Proposals
3 October 2008
Geoffrey Hoon appointed SoS (8 Months)
15 January 2009
R3 supported by Labour Government
HS2 Ltd set up to investigate high speed London/West Midlands
February 2009
Conservative Party confirms its support for Arup proposals
5 June 2009
The Lord Adonis appointed SoS (10 months)
December 2009
HS2 hands its report to the government
11 March 2010
High Speed 2 report and supporting studies published with the
government's command paper on high-speed rail
Mawhinney Review Established
Heathrow Hub Proposals
The Heathrow Hub Connections
High Speed Rail Key Dates
6 May 2010
General Election – Conservative/Lib victory
R3 cancelled
12 May 2010
Philip Hammond appointed SoS (16 months)
21 July 2010
Mawhinney Review Reports
4 October 2010
Government route for consultation announced
20 December 2010
Government published a slightly revised line of route for
public consultation
14 October 2011
Justine Greening appointed SoS
1 November 2011
House of Commons Transport Select Committee Report Published
12 December 2011
Labour Party supports Arup proposals
10 January 2012
Government Route announced
The Government Alignment 2010
HS2 Alignment: Jan 2012
The two propositions
Government’s proposal
Indicates tunneled route
Heathrow Hub
The two propositions
Phasing
Cost
£bn
(Gov.est.)
exc RAB
funding
Distance
Journey
time
(Gov.est.)
Government’s proposal
Heathrow Hub
HS2 route designed to bypass Heathrow subsequent retrofits attempt to provide missing
Heathrow, Great Western Main Line (& HS1)
connections
Aligned with 2009 cross-party political consensus – direct
connection between Heathrow, Great Western Main Line,
Crossrail, HS2 (& UK motorway network)
Phase 0
- 2021
Phase 1 –
2026
Phase 2 2033
Phase 3 –
?
Phase 0 –
2018
Phase 1 –
2022
Phase 2 –
2026
Western
Connecti
on to
Heathrow
from
GWML
relief
lines
HS2
London to
Birmingha
m via Old
Oak
Common
(link to
HS1)
HS2 spur
(branch
line) from HS2
to
Heathrow
HS2 spur
extended to
form loop to
HS2 at Old Oak
Common
Heathrow Hub on
Great Western
Main Line, served
by all intercity,
interregional
and Crossrail
trains
HS2 connects HS1,
London, Heathrow Hub &
existing Chiltern, West
Coast and GW Main
Lines
HS2 extended to
Birmingham, West
Midlands and the
North
£0.7
£16.5
+ £0.7
£2.5-3.9 (spur)
+ £17.2
£1.5-1.6 (loop)
+ £19.7-21.1
£1.25 (GWML Hub)
- £1.25 (HHL
funded)
£16.5 (HS2) + £3.0
(M40 corridor via Heathrow) £1.0 (HS2 Hub HHL funded) - £1.0 (omit Old Oak)
= £0.7
= £17.2
= £19.7 - 21.1
= £21.2 - 22.7
= £0
= £17.5 (£16.6 using Arup estimate)
156.8km
London-Birmingham 49m with OOC stop
(all trains call)
167.2km
London-Birmingham
48m non-stop, 52m
Hub stop
Heathrow growing
within existing limits
Within existing limits
(480,000 ATM’s, no mixed mode, 2 runways, 42,000 car park cap, 147km2 noise contour)
Per annum figures
Actual 2009 (CAA)
Forecast 2020
Forecast 2030 (full A380)
Commercial ATM’s
466,000
480,000
480,000
Total terminal pax
65.8m
90.2m
95m
Average pax/ATM
141
188
198
Origin +Destination pax
40.9m
55.9m (Assume 2009 %)
58.9m (Assume2009 %)
Public transport modal
share
40%
41% (With Crossrail)
41.5% (Old Oak Common)
Public transport pax
16.4m
22.9m
24.4m
Private vehicle pax
24.5m
33.0m
34.5m
+ 8.5m (35%)
+10.0m (41%)
Additional private vehicle pax from 2009
“BAA is forecasting that the load factor will increase from 73% to 78.5% by 2020 and the average number of
seats per aircraft from 195 in 2007 to 240 in 2020” - Appendix 4.2, Competition Commission Final Report 2009
“61% of passenger travel emissions generated by kiss & fly, taxi and minicab journeys which all generate four
trips per return flight” – Heathrow 2009 Carbon Footprint & Surface Access Strategy, BAA
HS2 Alignment: Jan 2012
The benefits to the British
economy of aviation at Heathrow
GDP contribution
Employment
Heathrow aviation
£3.4 billion
50,000
Long haul visitor spending
£6.1 billion
130,000
Stop-over passenger spending
£1.6 billion
40,000
Total
£11.1 billion
220,000
'Frontier Economics. 'Connecting for growth:the role of Britain's hub airport in
economic recovery': A Report prepared for Heathrow, September 2011'
Note1: Our estimate of employment is of direct employment in the aviation sector as defined by Annual Business Inquiry.
There are around 76,00 people employed at the airport and at Waterside across aviation and related sectors, such as hotels,
catering, and other transport providers.
Note 2: This table does not include the impact of spending in the UK by visitors arriving on short haul flights.
An integrated approach?
Conclusion
1980s
BR point to point approach to CTRL
1990s
HS1 success in taking wider view of
transport and environment
2000s
European experience in integrating
rail/air and twinning road/rail
2010s
European Commission transport policy
mandates integrated intermodal
approach
2010s
HS2 ignores both experience and policy
London
competitiveness
Support Europe’s leading Hub airport
Full integration between aviation,
classic rail and High Speed Rail
Consensus on long term strategy and
funding
Democratic legitimacy