Dealing with London's growth from a transport perspective Michèle Dix: Managing Director, TfL Planning 15th March 2010 Shaping London – integrated strategy development Transport Spatial planning Economic development Strategic Overview Development of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS) Mayoral Manifesto Spring 2008: ‘A change for the better’ 3 “Direction of Travel” document: Nov 2008: ‘Way to Go’ Draft MTS for Assembly and Functional body consultation : May 2009: MTS: Statement of Intent (SoI) Draft MTS for Public & Stakeholder Consultation October 2009 Final Mayor’s Transport Strategy published: Spring 2010 London’s population is growing Distribution of London’s population growth by 2031 By 2031, London’s population is expected to have grown by a further 1.3 million 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01 20 04 20 07 20 10 20 13 20 16 20 19 20 22 20 25 20 28 20 31 Total employment (thousands) Employment growth 5500 5250 5000 4750 4500 4250 CE EBS OEF GLAE LP 2008 4000 3750 3500 Distribution of London’s employment growth by 2031 A further 750,000 jobs are forecast 27 million trips per day are forecast by 2031 Investing for Recovery – a new deal for London Key findings and recommendations: • London is the most productive UK region (2007/8 tax export was £14-19bn) • 31% of the capital’s jobs are found in just 2% of its land area (in CAZ/West End) – demonstrating the need of ensuring excellent radial links (through Crossrail, Tube and National Rail). • Government needs to ensure future of Crossrail and Tube investments for sake of London’s economic health • London risks losing £1billion a year in productivity if these investments are delayed • Efficient regional government, committed to making further savings • Investments are also vital to addressing economic and social disparities London depends on excellent transport connectivity • Air and rail hub : 75% of all rail journeys start or end in London and the South East • London Heathrow – world’s busiest airport 67 million passengers per annum • Rail and road connections to UK and continental Europe • Freight connections remain vital • Port access (Thamesport, Felixstowe, Dover, South Coast and Port of London) Mayor’s Transport Strategy Goals Support economic development and population growth Enhance the quality of life for all Londoners Improve the safety and security of all Londoners Improve transport opportunities for all Londoners Reduce transport’s contribution to climate change, and improve its resilience Support delivery of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and its legacy Increased trips (from 2008 base): 30% Public Transport 15% total Current travel demand in London Mode share Mode Share ‘London’s transport system should excel among those of global cities, providing access to opportunities for all its people and enterprises, achieving the highest environmental standards and leading the world in its approach to tackling urban transport challenges of the 21st century.’ Mode share Draft MTS seeks an increase in the mode share of walking, cycling and public transport 12 Highway congestion Currently, congestion is mostly found in central and inner London, and some town centres. With only reference case investment (Tube upgrades, Crossrail, Thameslink and HLOS), it can be seen that congestion is widespread in central and Inner London, and extends to Outer London town centres and large areas of south London 2006 Reasons for increased congestion: •Reduced resilience •Ageing assets and continuing utilities works •Population and employment growth •Increase in road freight 2031 (Reference case) 13 LU crowding 2006 Currently, there is severe crowding on routes into central London National Rail Crowding 2006 • There Is crowding on all radial national rail lines into central London in the morning peak. • North London Line also crowded Shortfalls between committed investments and future requirements 2031 Tube crowding reference case 2031 Highway congestion reference case 5.3 – 4.6 Policy approach Better coordination and integration of planning More transport capacity Managing demand for transport Enhancements to London’s transport infrastructure This figure sets out funded and unfunded improvements featured in the strategy 18 Integration of development and transport Integration of development and transport Local and strategic development control processes should seek to ensure a number of conditions are satisfied, including: • High trip generating developments to be located in areas of high public transport accessibility, connectivity and capacity • The design and layout of sites maximise access on foot, cycle and to public transport facilities • Maximum opportunities for sustainable freight distribution where possible • Land for transport use is safeguarded in line with London Plan policy and Supplementary Planning Guidance • Planning contributions are sought for transport improvements, where appropriate Case Study – Canary Wharf 1981 : only 3,000 workers remain in the Docklands area 1987 : Docklands Light Railway opens, by 1995 working pop. approx. 13,000 1999 : Jubilee Line Extension opens, by 2006 working pop. reaches 93,000 – densities provide demand for JLE Crossrail set to open 2017, enabling further schemes such as Wood Wharf working pop. to reach close to 200,000 Canary Wharf 1987-2020 1981 1987: :only 1999 2017: 3,000 Docklands Jubilee Crossrail workers Light Line set to remain Railway Extension open, in the opens, by enabling Docklands 1995 2006 further area working schemes pop. as such approx. reaches Wood 13,000 93,000 Wharf working pop. to reach close to 200,000 Case Study – Vauxhall Nine Elms Northern Line extension Battersea Power Station Regeneration • Maximising impact of existing/new infrastructure • Improving links to new rail nodes and interchanges from the surrounding area • Maximising legacy benefits of the Olympics • Coordinated planning between TfL, HCA and others re. new development Proposals to enhance London’s transport system Proposals to enhance London’s transport system + + TfL and DfT investment plans 2017-31 = Committed investments TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/8 overview: • Crossrail • DLR enhancements • Transforming the Tube programme • London Overground network extensions, frequency improvements • Improved interchanges • Highways schemes on Transport for London Road Network –e.g. Tottenham Hale gyratory removal • Cycle Hire and Superhighways • Funding for local borough schemes • Road safety, community safety and maintenance 27 Committed TfL Business Plan investments to 2017/8 - overview Transforming the Tube Key deliverables to increase capacity, reliability and reduce journey times: • Over 230 new train sets: 53 – Circle and Hammersmith and City 80 – District Line 58 – Metropolitan Line 47 – Victoria Line • Upgraded signalling and new control centres for most lines by 2016 • Station improvements – 131 completed so far! • By 2020, the Tube will have an extra 30 per cent capacity and quicker journeys Longer term proposals • Further improvements and extensions to the network Northern line Upgrade 2 • Extension of the Northern line to Battersea • Potential southern extension to the Bakerloo line will be reviewed further Crossrail •Brings up to £36bn (estimated) of benefits to the wider UK economy (over 60 years) through reduced •journey times, job growth and increased productivity benefits – more than twice the estimated cost of £15.9bn. •Connects Docklands, the City, West End, and West London with key regeneration areas •Europe’s biggest civil engineering project with new tunnelling, new interchanges and upgrades to existing lines and stations •Up to 14,000 people will be employed on the project at the peak of construction between 2013 and 2015. Docklands Light Railway • Since 1987 the DLR has opened up the docklands and east London • Demand for DLR is forecast to grow from 68 million to 83 million trips per annum by 2012. • 55 new carriages, expanding to three car operations, will give a 50% capacity increase by June 2010. • Extension to Stratford International remains on target for July 2010. • Woolwich Arsenal extension opened early 2009 - delivered on time and within budget, whilst providing a direct link to city airport Orbital connectivity: strategic interchanges London Underground Capacity Increases Estimates of increased capacity at specific locations on the network Metropolitan Jubilee Northern Victoria Finchley Road EB St. John’s Wood EB Charing Cross & City branches Highbury & Islington SB 32% 25% Euston SB 21% 20% Upgrade II Bakerloo Piccadilly 17% Maida Vale SB King’s Cross WB 57% 24% Piccadilly Hammersmith & City Barons Court EB Liverpool Street WB 24% 38% Hammersmith & City Metropolitan Hammersmith EB Liverpool Street WB 176% 19% District District Earl’s Court EB Tower Hill WB 26% 22% Circle Circle Gloucester Road EB Tower Hill WB 38% 38% Bakerloo Jubilee Waterloo NB London Bridge WB 57% Northern Northern Charing Cross branch City branch 43% Kennington NB Kennington NB Victoria 20% 20% Waterloo & City Vauxhall NB Upgrade II Upgrade II Waterloo-Bank 21% 17% 33% 25% These figures estimate the peak capacity increase at certain points on each line compared to the service in 2005/06, and reflect the capability delivered by the upgrades and current service patterns assumptions National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink, Overground, DLR and Tramlink • Crossrail • London and the South East rail links and services, including Thameslink – large increases in cross-London capacity (~20 tph through the core) Longer term proposals: • Mayor supports High Speed 2 (HS2) • Chelsea-Hackney line/Crossrail 2 • Station capacity enhancements Committed National Rail investments to 2014 - overview Managing the road network • Smoothing traffic flow, including investment in intelligent traffic control systems (such as ‘SCOOT’) • Minimising the impact of interventions on the road including lane rental charges • Minimising events disruption from planned network, unplanned • Technology development • Maintaining road network safety and efficiency assets for • Development of the road network – East Thames river crossings Providing new links to support development: East Thames river crossings 37 Freight Freight traffic predicted to grow as London’s population and economic activity increase. Predicted 30% rise in Light Goods Vehicles Working with industry through: •Freight (FORS) Operator Recognition Scheme •Delivery and Servicing Plans •Construction Logistics Plans Modal shift to rail, water and bicycle through provision of infrastructure Mayoral leadership procurement) (e.g. Promotion of cleaner vehicles Responsible London’s airports •Airport capacity – the Mayor recognises adequate airport runway capacity is critical to the competitive position of London, but opposes any further increases in capacity at Heathrow. •MTS seeks to improve access to London’s airports for passengers and staff by public transport. •Improved freight access promotion of DSPs) •Air Quality proposals •Noise reduction proposals to the airport (e.g. Managing demand Walking, cycling and public transport use road space more efficiently Improved information for passengers Better Streets: Practical Steps Measures to improve the street environment will help regenerate areas and make walking and cycling more attractive alternative so encouraging healthier lifestyles Outcomes Outcomes (overview) • Public transport capacity and connectivity improvements • Less crowding • Less congestion • Reduced Carbon Dioxide emissions from transport • Improved air quality • Fewer KSI road casualties • Improved accessibility to jobs • Improved accessibility of the transport network But if we want to achieve more, we have to think differently about influencing people’s behaviour. Underground crowding (2031 with MTS) • Crowding largely alleviated, however, forecasts suggest it persists on Piccadilly and Victoria lines. • Current route of ChelseaHackney line (Crossrail 2) as modelled doesn’t effectively address this crowding. • Other options may provide greater crowding relief NR Crowding (2031 with MTS) With MTS proposals, crowding persists on a some corridors, Major congestion relief is provided on southern approaches to central London, and the West Anglia lines. Benefits from implementing measures beyond those in the TfL Business Plan and HLOS Improved accessibility to employment Accessibility: MTS proposes an increase of more than 50% in the average number of jobs that a London resident can reach within 45 minutes minimum public transport journey time 50 Improved accessibility to employment Additional journey time is often required in order to take physically accessible routes. From most areas journeys to central London take up to an hour longer. The figure shows the public transport journey relative time differential to/from Bank by accessible route, in comparison to quickest route. Ensuring the transport system is accessible from the start to the end of the journey will enable more ‘spontaneous’ travel, delivering social and economic benefits – widening the labour pool and enhancing economic independence. 51 Costs and funding Costs: Proposals will require an estimated capital investment of between £3.5 and £4.5 billion per annum, comparable to current expenditure. Funding sources: A variety of funding sources are identified: • Government grant direct to TfL • Revenue from fares and other sources • Secondary income (e.g. advertising) • TfL 'prudential borrowing' against future revenue • Asset financing and property disposal receipts • Other forms of Government grant to parts of the transport network not controlled by TfL, e.g. HLOS process, borough highway maintenance • Contributions from the private sector, e.g. developer funding for associated transport investments • Direct borough funding •Other Government funding sources, including specific allocations to support regeneration, health and education and other areas Further information online TfL overview: http://www.tfl.gov.uk/ ‘Shaping London’ website: http://london.gov.uk/shaping-london -MTS, London Plan and Economic Development Strategy (and impact assessments) Travel in London Report (statistical information) http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/cor porate/Travel-in-London-report-1.pdf TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/18 http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/cor porate/tfl-business-plan-2009.pdf Annexe Underground crowding (2031 reference case) •Reference case, with committed TfL Business Plan investments •Crowding persists and intensifies, particularly on the NE-SW corridor (served by Piccadilly, Victoria and District lines). •All routes into the City are crowded, including Northern Line National Rail Crowding (2031 reference case) •Reference case incorporates Thameslink, East London Line extension and Crossrail •Some relief provided, however significant amounts of crowding remain on some of the most intensively-used corridors •West Anglia lines severely crowded. MTS proposals Rail (National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink, Overgound): orbital connectivity improvements, more capacity on radial routes, support for HS2, station investment London’s bus network: Service quality; Fleet development Managing the road network: Measures to reduce disruption from road works, improved traffic management (Smoothing traffic flow) Taxis, private hire, coaches and community transport: support for vital services and improvements to taxi/PHV safety and environmental impact Blue Ribbon Network: Greater use of the Thames for passengers and Freight Cycling: Superhighways; Cycle Hire scheme Walking: Public realm improvements River Crossings: Investigate options for new crossings in London MTS proposals A more accessible transport system: Improving links to new rail nodes and interchanges from their surrounding areas Integrating London’s transport system and services: Strategic interchanges; improved information London’s airports: Improved public transport access; opposition to Heathrow expansion Improving public transport safety: Ensuring high standards of operational safety are maintained Improving road safety: Support for Intelligent Speed Adaptation, driver education and enforcement Reducing crime, fear of crime and anti-social behaviour: Designing out crime, improved deployment of policing resources 'Better streets‘ :Town centre pedestrian access improvements Improving noise impacts: Quieter, well maintained infrastructure, review of London Lorry Control Scheme MTS proposals Improving air quality: Cleaner public, private and freight fleet, LEZ enhancements Reducing carbon dioxide emissions: Promoting behavioural change, support for electric vehicles, smoothing traffic flow Adapting to climate change: Infrastructure location/ construction and vehicle design Better journey planning and smarter travel for people and goods: Improved electronic journey planning tools, Delivery and Servicing Plans for freight Fares and ticketing: Promote new technology, support Oyster on National Rail network Parking and loading: Fair and consistent enforcement, differential pricing Road user charging for economic and environmental aims: Potential Western Extension Zone removal, longer term pricing incentives if other policy interventions do not achieve the Strategy’s goals London Cycle Hire Scheme •Launches Summer 2010 •Available 24 hours a day •400 docking stations, spaced approximately every 300 metres •10,200 docking spaces at the docking stations. •Each docking station will come with a map Western Extension Zone and Low Emission zone consultations Retention of central Congestion Charge London Proposal to remove WEZ •If, following consultation, the Mayor is still minded to remove the WEZ, there would need to be a further statutory consultation on a change to the scheme •WEZ could be removed in 2010 mitigation measures for adverse traffic and air quality impacts would be put in place. Low Emission Zone •The Mayor is proposing deferring the implementation of LEZ Phase 3 from October 2010 until an appropriate point in 2012