Dealing with London's growth
from a transport perspective
Michèle Dix: Managing Director, TfL Planning
15th March 2010
Shaping London – integrated strategy development
Transport
Spatial planning
Economic development
Strategic Overview
Development of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS)
Mayoral
Manifesto
Spring 2008:
‘A change for
the better’
3
“Direction of
Travel”
document:
Nov 2008:
‘Way to Go’
Draft MTS for
Assembly and
Functional body
consultation :
May 2009:
MTS: Statement
of Intent (SoI)
Draft MTS for
Public &
Stakeholder
Consultation
October 2009
Final Mayor’s
Transport
Strategy
published:
Spring 2010
London’s population is growing
Distribution of London’s population growth by 2031
By 2031,
London’s
population is
expected to
have grown
by a further
1.3 million
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
20
22
20
25
20
28
20
31
Total employment (thousands)
Employment growth
5500
5250
5000
4750
4500
4250
CE
EBS
OEF
GLAE
LP 2008
4000
3750
3500
Distribution of London’s employment growth by 2031
A further
750,000 jobs
are forecast
27 million
trips per day
are forecast
by 2031
Investing for Recovery – a new deal for London
Key findings and recommendations:
• London is the most productive UK region
(2007/8 tax export was £14-19bn)
• 31% of the capital’s jobs are found in just
2% of its land area (in CAZ/West End) –
demonstrating the need of ensuring
excellent radial links (through Crossrail,
Tube and National Rail).
• Government needs to ensure future of
Crossrail and Tube investments for sake of
London’s economic health
• London risks losing £1billion a year in
productivity if these investments are
delayed
• Efficient regional government, committed
to making further savings
• Investments are also vital to addressing
economic and social disparities
London depends on excellent transport connectivity
• Air and rail hub : 75% of all rail
journeys start or end in
London and the South East
• London Heathrow – world’s
busiest airport 67 million
passengers per annum
• Rail and road connections to
UK and continental Europe
• Freight connections remain
vital
• Port access (Thamesport,
Felixstowe, Dover, South
Coast and Port of London)
Mayor’s Transport Strategy Goals
Support economic development and population growth
Enhance the quality of life for all Londoners
Improve the safety and security of all Londoners
Improve transport opportunities for all Londoners
Reduce transport’s contribution to climate change, and
improve its resilience
Support delivery of the London 2012 Olympic and
Paralympic Games and its legacy
Increased trips (from
2008 base):
30% Public Transport
15% total
Current travel demand in London
Mode share
Mode Share
‘London’s transport system should excel among those of global cities, providing access to
opportunities for all its people and enterprises, achieving the highest environmental standards
and leading the world in its approach to tackling urban transport challenges of the 21st century.’
Mode share
Draft MTS seeks an
increase in the mode
share of walking,
cycling and public
transport
12
Highway congestion
Currently, congestion is
mostly found in central
and inner London, and
some town centres.
With only reference case
investment (Tube
upgrades, Crossrail,
Thameslink and HLOS),
it can be seen that
congestion is
widespread in central
and Inner London, and
extends to Outer London
town centres and large
areas of south London
2006
Reasons for increased
congestion:
•Reduced resilience
•Ageing assets and
continuing utilities works
•Population and
employment growth
•Increase in road freight
2031
(Reference
case)
13
LU crowding 2006
Currently, there is
severe crowding on
routes into central
London
National Rail Crowding 2006
• There
Is
crowding on all
radial national
rail lines into
central London
in the morning
peak.
• North London
Line
also
crowded
Shortfalls between committed investments and future requirements
2031 Tube crowding
reference case
2031 Highway
congestion reference
case
5.3 – 4.6
Policy approach
Better
coordination
and integration
of planning
More transport
capacity
Managing demand
for transport
Enhancements to London’s transport infrastructure
This figure sets out
funded and
unfunded
improvements
featured in the
strategy
18
Integration of development and transport
Integration of development and transport
Local and strategic development control
processes should seek to ensure a number of
conditions are satisfied, including:
•
High trip generating developments to be
located in areas of high public transport
accessibility, connectivity and capacity
•
The design and layout of sites maximise
access on foot, cycle and to public transport
facilities
•
Maximum opportunities for sustainable
freight distribution where possible
•
Land for transport use is safeguarded in
line with London Plan policy and
Supplementary Planning Guidance
•
Planning contributions are sought for
transport improvements, where appropriate
Case Study – Canary Wharf
1981 : only 3,000 workers
remain in the Docklands area
1987 : Docklands Light Railway opens, by 1995
working pop. approx. 13,000
1999 : Jubilee Line Extension opens,
by 2006 working pop. reaches 93,000 –
densities provide demand for JLE
Crossrail set to open 2017, enabling further
schemes such as Wood Wharf working
pop. to reach close to 200,000
Canary Wharf 1987-2020
1981
1987: :only
1999
2017:
3,000
Docklands
Jubilee
Crossrail
workers
Light
Line
set
to
remain
Railway
Extension
open,
in
the
opens, by
enabling
Docklands
1995
2006
further
area
working
schemes
pop. as
such
approx.
reaches
Wood
13,000
93,000
Wharf
working
pop. to
reach
close to
200,000
Case Study – Vauxhall Nine Elms
Northern Line extension
Battersea Power Station
Regeneration
• Maximising impact of
existing/new
infrastructure
• Improving links to new
rail nodes and
interchanges from the
surrounding area
• Maximising legacy
benefits of the
Olympics
• Coordinated planning
between TfL, HCA and
others re. new
development
Proposals to enhance
London’s transport system
Proposals to enhance
London’s transport system
+
+
TfL and DfT
investment
plans
2017-31
=
Committed investments
TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/8 overview:
•
Crossrail
•
DLR enhancements
•
Transforming the Tube programme
•
London Overground network extensions,
frequency improvements
•
Improved interchanges
•
Highways schemes on Transport for London
Road Network –e.g. Tottenham Hale
gyratory removal
•
Cycle Hire and Superhighways
•
Funding for local borough schemes
•
Road safety, community safety and
maintenance
27
Committed TfL Business Plan investments
to 2017/8 - overview
Transforming the Tube
Key deliverables to increase capacity, reliability
and reduce journey times:
• Over 230 new train sets:
53 – Circle and Hammersmith and City
80 – District Line
58 – Metropolitan Line
47 – Victoria Line
• Upgraded signalling and new control centres
for most lines by 2016
• Station improvements – 131 completed so far!
• By 2020, the Tube will have an extra 30 per cent
capacity and quicker journeys
Longer term proposals
• Further improvements and extensions to the
network Northern line Upgrade 2
• Extension of the Northern line to Battersea
• Potential southern extension to the Bakerloo line
will be reviewed further
Crossrail
•Brings up to £36bn (estimated) of
benefits to the wider UK economy
(over 60 years) through reduced
•journey times, job growth and
increased productivity benefits – more
than twice the estimated cost of
£15.9bn.
•Connects Docklands, the City, West
End, and West London with key
regeneration areas
•Europe’s biggest civil engineering
project with new tunnelling, new
interchanges and upgrades to existing
lines and stations
•Up to 14,000 people will be employed
on the project at the peak of
construction between 2013 and 2015.
Docklands Light Railway
• Since 1987 the DLR has opened up the
docklands and east London
• Demand for DLR is forecast to grow from
68 million to 83 million trips per annum by
2012.
• 55 new carriages, expanding to three car
operations, will give a 50% capacity
increase by June 2010.
• Extension to Stratford
International remains on target for July 2010.
• Woolwich Arsenal extension opened early
2009 - delivered on time and within
budget, whilst providing a direct link to city
airport
Orbital connectivity: strategic interchanges
London Underground Capacity Increases
Estimates of increased capacity at specific locations on the network
Metropolitan
Jubilee
Northern
Victoria
Finchley Road EB
St. John’s Wood EB
Charing Cross & City branches
Highbury & Islington SB
32%
25%
Euston SB
21%
20%
Upgrade II
Bakerloo
Piccadilly
17%
Maida Vale SB
King’s Cross WB
57%
24%
Piccadilly
Hammersmith & City
Barons Court EB
Liverpool Street WB
24%
38%
Hammersmith & City
Metropolitan
Hammersmith EB
Liverpool Street WB
176%
19%
District
District
Earl’s Court EB
Tower Hill WB
26%
22%
Circle
Circle
Gloucester Road EB
Tower Hill WB
38%
38%
Bakerloo
Jubilee
Waterloo NB
London Bridge WB
57%
Northern
Northern
Charing Cross branch
City branch
43%
Kennington NB
Kennington NB
Victoria
20%
20%
Waterloo & City
Vauxhall NB
Upgrade II
Upgrade II
Waterloo-Bank
21%
17%
33%
25%
These figures estimate the peak capacity increase at certain points on each line compared to the service
in 2005/06, and reflect the capability delivered by the upgrades and current service patterns assumptions
National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink,
Overground, DLR and Tramlink
• Crossrail
• London and the South East rail links and
services, including Thameslink – large
increases in cross-London capacity (~20 tph
through the core)
Longer term proposals:
• Mayor supports High Speed 2 (HS2)
• Chelsea-Hackney line/Crossrail 2
• Station capacity enhancements
Committed National Rail investments to 2014 - overview
Managing the road network
• Smoothing
traffic
flow,
including
investment in intelligent traffic control
systems (such as ‘SCOOT’)
• Minimising the impact of
interventions on the road
including lane rental charges
• Minimising
events
disruption from
planned
network,
unplanned
• Technology development
• Maintaining road network
safety and efficiency
assets
for
• Development of the road network – East
Thames river crossings
Providing new links to support development:
East Thames river crossings
37
Freight
Freight traffic predicted to grow as
London’s population and economic activity
increase.
Predicted 30% rise in Light Goods Vehicles
Working with industry through:
•Freight
(FORS)
Operator
Recognition
Scheme
•Delivery and Servicing Plans
•Construction Logistics Plans
Modal shift to rail, water and bicycle through
provision of infrastructure
Mayoral
leadership
procurement)
(e.g.
Promotion of cleaner vehicles
Responsible
London’s airports
•Airport capacity – the Mayor recognises adequate
airport runway capacity is critical to the competitive
position of London, but opposes any further
increases in capacity at Heathrow.
•MTS seeks to improve access to London’s airports
for passengers and staff by public transport.
•Improved freight access
promotion of DSPs)
•Air Quality proposals
•Noise reduction proposals
to
the
airport
(e.g.
Managing demand
Walking, cycling and public transport use road space more efficiently
Improved information for passengers
Better Streets: Practical Steps
Measures to improve the street
environment will help
regenerate areas and make
walking and cycling more
attractive alternative so
encouraging healthier lifestyles
Outcomes
Outcomes (overview)
• Public transport capacity and connectivity improvements
• Less crowding
• Less congestion
• Reduced Carbon Dioxide emissions from transport
• Improved air quality
• Fewer KSI road casualties
• Improved accessibility to jobs
• Improved accessibility of the transport network
But if we want to achieve more, we have to think differently
about influencing people’s behaviour.
Underground crowding (2031 with MTS)
• Crowding
largely
alleviated,
however,
forecasts
suggest
it
persists on Piccadilly and
Victoria lines.
• Current route of ChelseaHackney line (Crossrail 2)
as
modelled
doesn’t
effectively address this
crowding.
• Other
options
may
provide greater crowding
relief
NR Crowding (2031 with MTS)
With
MTS
proposals,
crowding persists
on
a
some
corridors,
Major congestion
relief is provided
on
southern
approaches
to
central
London,
and
the
West
Anglia lines.
Benefits from implementing measures beyond those in the
TfL Business Plan and HLOS
Improved accessibility to employment
Accessibility:
MTS proposes an increase of more than 50% in the average number of jobs that a London
resident can reach within 45 minutes minimum public transport journey time
50
Improved accessibility to employment
Additional journey time is often required
in order to take physically accessible
routes. From most areas journeys to
central London take up to an hour
longer.
The figure shows the public transport
journey relative time differential to/from
Bank by accessible route, in comparison
to quickest route.
Ensuring the transport system is
accessible from the start to the end of
the
journey
will
enable
more
‘spontaneous’ travel, delivering social
and economic benefits – widening the
labour pool and enhancing economic
independence.
51
Costs and funding
Costs:
Proposals will require an estimated capital investment of between
£3.5 and £4.5 billion per annum, comparable to current expenditure.
Funding sources:
A variety of funding sources are identified:
• Government grant direct to TfL
• Revenue from fares and other sources
• Secondary income (e.g. advertising)
• TfL 'prudential borrowing' against future revenue
• Asset financing and property disposal receipts
• Other forms of Government grant to parts of the transport network
not controlled by TfL, e.g. HLOS process, borough highway
maintenance
• Contributions from the private sector, e.g. developer funding for
associated transport investments
• Direct borough funding
•Other Government funding sources, including specific allocations to
support regeneration, health and education and other areas
Further information online
TfL overview:
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/
‘Shaping London’ website:
http://london.gov.uk/shaping-london
-MTS, London Plan and Economic
Development
Strategy
(and
impact
assessments)
Travel in London Report (statistical
information)
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/cor
porate/Travel-in-London-report-1.pdf
TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/18
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/cor
porate/tfl-business-plan-2009.pdf
Annexe
Underground crowding (2031 reference case)
•Reference case, with committed TfL Business Plan
investments
•Crowding persists and intensifies, particularly on the
NE-SW corridor (served by Piccadilly, Victoria and
District lines).
•All routes into the City are crowded, including
Northern Line
National Rail Crowding (2031 reference case)
•Reference case
incorporates
Thameslink, East
London Line
extension and
Crossrail
•Some relief
provided, however
significant amounts
of crowding remain
on some of the most
intensively-used
corridors
•West Anglia lines
severely crowded.
MTS proposals
Rail (National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink, Overgound):
orbital connectivity improvements, more capacity on radial
routes, support for HS2, station investment
London’s bus network: Service quality; Fleet development
Managing the road network: Measures to reduce
disruption from road works, improved traffic management
(Smoothing traffic flow)
Taxis, private hire, coaches and community transport:
support for vital services and improvements to taxi/PHV
safety and environmental impact
Blue Ribbon Network: Greater use of the Thames for
passengers and Freight
Cycling: Superhighways; Cycle Hire scheme
Walking: Public realm improvements
River Crossings: Investigate options for new crossings in
London
MTS proposals
A more accessible transport system: Improving links to new
rail nodes and interchanges from their surrounding areas
Integrating London’s transport system and services:
Strategic interchanges; improved information
London’s airports: Improved public transport access;
opposition to Heathrow expansion
Improving public transport safety: Ensuring high standards
of operational safety are maintained
Improving road safety: Support for Intelligent Speed
Adaptation, driver education and enforcement
Reducing crime, fear of crime and anti-social behaviour:
Designing out crime, improved deployment of policing
resources
'Better streets‘ :Town centre pedestrian access improvements
Improving noise impacts: Quieter, well maintained
infrastructure, review of London Lorry Control Scheme
MTS proposals
Improving air quality: Cleaner public, private and freight
fleet, LEZ enhancements
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions: Promoting
behavioural change, support for electric vehicles,
smoothing traffic flow
Adapting to climate change: Infrastructure location/
construction and vehicle design
Better journey planning and smarter travel for people
and goods: Improved electronic journey planning tools,
Delivery and Servicing Plans for freight
Fares and ticketing: Promote new technology, support
Oyster on National Rail network
Parking and loading: Fair and consistent enforcement,
differential pricing
Road user charging for economic and environmental
aims: Potential Western Extension Zone removal, longer
term pricing incentives if other policy interventions do not
achieve the Strategy’s goals
London Cycle Hire Scheme
•Launches Summer 2010
•Available 24 hours a day
•400 docking stations, spaced
approximately every 300 metres
•10,200 docking spaces at the
docking stations.
•Each docking station will come
with a map
Western Extension Zone and Low Emission zone
consultations
Retention
of
central
Congestion Charge
London
Proposal to remove WEZ
•If, following consultation, the Mayor is
still minded to remove the WEZ, there
would need to be a further statutory
consultation on a change to the scheme
•WEZ could be removed in 2010 mitigation measures for adverse traffic
and air quality impacts would be put in
place.
Low Emission Zone
•The Mayor is proposing deferring the
implementation of LEZ Phase 3 from
October 2010 until an appropriate point
in 2012