Balance of payments and
related statistics:
a European perspective
Rodrigo Oliveira-Soares
Dublin, 23 February 2012
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
Outline
• Introduction
• ECB Monetary policy
• Monitoring macroeconomic imbalances
• Macroeconomic oversight
• Euro area statistics
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Introduction
"a body of methods for making wise
decisions in the face of uncertainty."
Wilson Allen Wallis (1912–1998),
US economist and statistician.
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Monetary policy of the ECB
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Monetary policy of the ECB
Relationship between balance of payments and
international investment position
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Monetary policy of the ECB
Euro area as a whole
 Risks to price stability
 Flows affecting monetary conditions and exchange
rate markets
 Macroeconomic projections
 Quarterly sector accounts
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Monetary policy of the ECB
Euro area as a whole
 Balance of payments
 Monthly
 Quarterly vs. main counterparts
 International investment position
 Quarterly
 Annual vs. main counterparts
 Data in public data warehouse
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/
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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Current-account balances, euro-area Member States
(as % of GDP) – Surplus and deficit countries
Source: European Commission
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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Source: European Commission
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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Improve EU economic governance
 Alert mechanism to prevent and
correct imbalances.
Early warning system based on 10 economic indicators
of competitiveness, among which:
 Current account balance
 Net international investment position
 Export market shares of goods and services
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Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system
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Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system
Independent EU body
 reduce systemic risks to financial stability
 avoid financial distress
 smooth functioning of the internal market
Set of indicators (White Book), including:
 Current account balance
 Gross external debt
 Net interest payments
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Statistics for the euro area as a whole
How do we gather statistics?
 Transactions and positions
with non-residents (“extra”)
 17 countries + ECB own accounts
 ECB Guideline and Recommendation
 Portfolio investment
– security-by-security
– centralised database
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Statistics for the euro area as a whole
Implementation of new standards by 2014
 Timely quarterly statistics
 Consistency with national accounts
 Relevance of the
international investment position
 Financial intermediaries
 Investment fund shares
 Listed / non-listed equity
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Thank you for your attention
Questions?
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