Microsoft Excel 2002 Tutorial 10 – Using Solver For Complex Problems XP

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XP
Microsoft Excel 2002
Tutorial 10 – Using Solver For Complex
Problems
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Excel 2002 Tutorial 10
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Formulate a problem
• Goal Seek and Solver are Excel tools that can help us solve
complex, multi-variable problems.
• A typical multi-variable problem is optimizing the mix of
several different products to be manufactured, stocked,
and/or sold by a factory or business.
• Such problems deal with issues such as inventory, demand,
display, space, and profit.
• In order to solve such a problem in Excel, it is first
necessary to create an Excel workbook showing all of the
interrelated facts.
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Income Analysis portion of
sample worksheet
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This figure shows an income analysis
worksheet for a barbecue grill manufacturer.
This worksheet will
be referenced in
other slides in this
presentation to
illustrate solving
complex problems
with Excel.
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Grill Parts Inventory portion of XP
sample worksheet
This figure shows a grill parts
inventory worksheet that will
also be referenced in other
slides in this presentation.
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An example problem
• The problem addressed in this example is to optimize the
profit that a grill manufacturing plant can make, by
balancing the number of each kind of grill against
inventory and revenue.
• Note the following factors in the spreadsheets seen in the
previous two slides:
–
–
–
–
–
The cost, both in parts and labor, to produce each kind of grill
The selling price of each grill
The total income
The current inventory of all parts
A chart of how many of each part are needed by each grill type
• Most mix-optimizing problems will require this type of
information.
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A helpful formula tip
• The formula in cell I3 of the Inventory portion of the
worksheet (to calculate the count of the part named
“Burner (Main)”) can be written in the form =$B$4*L3
+$C$4*M3 +$D$4*N3 +$E$4*O3.
• In this way, it can be copied to the rest of the cells in the
column.
• This is better than writing a new formula for each count
because it:
– Allows you to use the same formula for each part and reduces the
risk of data entry error
– Allows the possibility of someday changing the number of parts
used for a specific model without having to rewrite the formulas
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Mix-optimizing problem
considerations
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• In every mix-optimizing problem, the
constraints or requirements must be defined.
• In the problem under discussion, the solution
must meet the following requirements:
– There must be enough of each kind of grill to fill the
current orders
– No further parts can be ordered or manufactured, so
no more grills can be manufactured once a part type
is exhausted
– The company wants a mix that will maximize profits
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Perform what-if analyses
• Once you have a worksheet set up that defines the
problem, you can begin to do a what-if analysis.
• A good way to begin is to enter some reasonable
numbers, and see what happens.
• This will also be a check to see if the worksheet is
set up properly.
• In our grill problem, the current orders would be a
good starting place.
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An income analysis for an order
This figure shows the worksheet after the number of each model in the current orders
has been entered. Note the count of each model entered in row 4, the expenses and
revenue produced from these orders, and the net income.
The net income is negative,
showing that if the grill
factory produces only
enough models to fill
current orders, it will
realize a loss.
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The updated Inventory portion XP
of the worksheet
Note the status of the inventory after the order shown in the previous slide was
placed, as shown in this figure. There are no shortages, which means that the factory
can indeed manufacture the number of each model of grill that has been ordered.
(A shortage would be
indicated by a negative
number in column J,
which shows how many
parts are left.) In fact,
there are many of each
part left.
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Now what-if? The order continued
Now the question is: How many
more grills of each kind can be
manufactured? What if we add
150 to the count of each model
and order that many? This
figure shows what happens with
a guess—a what-if of 150 more
of each model. The net income
looks very good.
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Recognizing a problem
However, when we check out the status of the inventory, as shown in this figure,
we see that there is a negative quantity in cell J13, indicating that this order
would use too many of the part called “Rack (Top)” .
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Try to solve a problem
using trial and error
• Returning to the last what-if analysis, entering a count of
150 more than the current orders for each type of grill, you
will remember that we used 15 too many of the parts called
“Rack (Top)”.
• You could check to see what models use this part, and
reduce the count of one of them by 15.
– For example, let's reduce the count of Extended grills from 225 to
210
– This will make the parts inventory OK, and will reduce the net
income by $1,500 or so
• This looks like a good solution, but our problem is to find
the optimal solution, the optimal mix of grills that will
yield the most net income.
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Explore other order possibilities
• If you increase the number of Extended grills by 15 and
decrease the number of Deluxe grills by 15, the solution is
better, but is it the best?
• Let's try increasing the number of Standard grills in the
order (since they don't use top racks).
• We could keep on trying different entries for the count of
different models of grill, trying to come up with the best
solution, but continuing to use this manual trial-and-error
method is tedious, and could take a long time.
• Fortunately, Excel has a tool that can help in trial-and-error
problem solving.
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Use Goal Seek to automate
the trial-and-error process
• To automate the trial-and-error process, Excel has
a tool called Goal Seek.
• When you use Goal Seek, you specify the result
you want, and Goal Seek changes the value in an
input cell to arrive at that result.
– For example, we have been changing the number of
each grill ordered (the inputs), and checking the net
income (the result)
• With Goal Seek, we specify the net income we
want, and tell Goal Seek to change one of the
inputs until it arrives at that goal.
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Use Goal Seek
• In the worksheet for the optimal-mix problem about grills,
we want to see what inputs would give us a net income of
42,000.
• To invoke Goal Seek, from the Tools menu, click Goal
Seek.
• This will bring up the Goal Seek dialog box.
• In that dialog box, you specify:
– The cell to be set to some value
– The value you want to be in that cell
– The cell to change to accomplish the goal
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The Goal Seek dialog box
This figure shows the Goal Seek box. In the Set cell: reference box, you will see the
address of the result cell we are interested in, which is Net Income in cell B19.
In the To value: box, the value 42000 has been entered. In the By changing cell:, the
address of one of the input cells, B4 (the count of Standard grills), has been entered.
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Understand the Goal Seek dialog box
• Goal Seek only allows you to enter one input cell to
change.
• If you read the text of the entire Goal Seek dialog box as a
sentence, it says, Set cell B19 to value 42000 by changing
cell B4.
• Keeping that sentence in mind will help you know what
Goal Seek is going to try to do.
• When you click OK, Goal Seek does its work.
• When it finds a solution, Goal Seek reports success in a
Goal Seek Status box.
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The Goal Seek results status box
When you examine the
worksheet, you will see that
Goal Seek has changed the
count of Standard grills to
331.2887, which yields a net
income of exactly $42,000.
You can see the Goal Seek status box in this figure.
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Look for Goal Seek problems
• There are a couple of problems with this solution
seen in the previous slide.
• First of all, you cannot order 331.2887 Standard
grills.
• Second, when you check the status of the
inventory, you see that there is a negative quantity
in the Remaining column for the part called Igniter
Button, which means you have exceeded the
inventory for that part.
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Fixing Goal Seek problems
• The first problem is caused by the fact that Goal Seek does
not differentiate between integer and real numbers.
• Once Goal Seek gives you an estimate, you can manually
change the number to the appropriate integer.
• To fix the second problem, you can run Goal Seek again,
this time specifying that cell J10 (the remaining igniter
buttons) should be set to 0, by changing cell B4.
• When you run Goal Seek with these values, the value
displayed in B4 is 302.
• If you click on cell B2, you will see that the real value is
302.000000000002. You should fix this by manually
entering 302 in cell B4.
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The final Goal Seek solution
• After making the changes shown in the previous slide,
check the inventory status, to see if there are any negative
numbers.
• The number of igniter buttons remaining is zero; this
product mix uses them all.
• Now, check the net income. It has fallen from $42,000 to
just a little over $40,500, but we do have a workable
solution that satisfies the first two constraints:
– All current orders can be filled
– The supply of parts has not been exceeded
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Did Goal Seek provide
the final answer?
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• Goal Seek helped find a solution that worked, but
remember that our problem is to find the best solution—the
one that yields the maximum net income.
• We could do several trials using Goal Seek, and see which
one of them is better, but we won't know that we have
found the best one.
• The only way to be absolutely sure that you have found the
best solution using the trial-and-error method is to create
all the solutions and then pick the best one.
• In the current problem, there are thousands of different
combinations, certainly more than we want to run.
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Use Solver to find the best solution
• Excel has an add-in program called Solver.
• Check the Tools menu to see if Solver is installed and
activated on your machine.
• If it is, the word Solver will appear on the tools menu.
• You can activate it by clicking Add-Ins on the Tools menu.
– This will bring up a list of the add-in programs available to activate
• Find Solver on the list, check its box, and then click OK.
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Install Solver
• If it is not installed, a dialog box that will guide
you in the installation of Solver.
• You will need your Microsoft Office XP CD to
complete the installation.
• Once Solver is installed, you will not need to
install it again.
• It will be available on the Tools menu to use any
time you need to solve an optimal-mix type of
problem.
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Look for Solver on the Tools menu
This figure shows a Tools menu
with the word Solver. If Solver
does not appear, it is either
installed and not activated, or
not installed.
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Information required by Solver
•
Solver needs four types of values that you will enter into
the Solver Parameter dialog box:
1. It needs the address of the target cell.
2. It needs to know what you want to do with the target cell. You
can ask Solver to set the target cell's value to the:
•
•
•
greatest possible value
the least possible value
to a certain value that you enter
3. Solver needs to know which cells it can change to arrive at the
desired result.
4. Solver needs to know what constraints have to be applied to the
solution.
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The Solver Parameters dialog box
In the example used in this presentation, the target cell is the cell where the net
income is, and we want Solver to find the maximum possible value. The cells that
Solver can change to solve the problem are the cells containing the count of each
kind of grill. This figure shows the dialog box with these values entered.
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Add Solver constraints
• The next step is to enter the requirements, or constraints.
• The first requirement is that the number of each part
cannot exceed the available supply of each part.
• Since the counts of available parts are in column H, and
the count of the parts used in the order are in
corresponding places in column I, the constraint is that the
value in cell I3 must be less than or equal to the value in
cell H3, the value in cell I4 must be less than or equal to
the value in cell H4, and so on.
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Access the Add Constraint dialog box
• You can write this constraint in the Add Constraint dialog box.
• Click Add in the Constraints section of the Solver Parameters dialog
box.
• This brings up the Add Constraint dialog box, which has three boxes to
enter values in.
– The first box asks for references to the cells in question, in our case I3:I14
– The second box lets you choose from several comparison options; we will
choose “=“
– The third box asks you for the address of the constraining cells, in our
case H3:H14
• Add additional constraints as needed for the problem being solved.
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View the constraints
This figure shows four constraints added for the problem being solved.
There is another constraint, however. The order values need to be integers,
since you cannot order, for example, 311.5 Extended model grills.
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The Add Constraint dialog box
This figure shows the Add Constraint dialog box with the additional constraint that
cells B4:E4 must be integer. Once all the constraints are set up, click the Solve
button in the Solver Parameters dialog box. In the status bar, you can see Solver
trying several different solutions.
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The Solver Results box
When Solver finds the
optimal solution, it displays a
Solver Results box, saying
that it has found a solution.
The solution is displayed in
this figure. Note that the net
income is more than $44,000
dollars, that all outstanding
orders are covered, and that
no parts have exceeded their
inventory (although the
supply of two different parts
has been totally exhausted).
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Create an answer report
• Once you have examined the optimal solution created by
Solver, you will want to create a report that captures the
important facts about the solution.
• Create an answer report from the Solver Results
window:
– Set the changing cells (B4:E4) to zero
– Bring up Solver and notice that the parameters, changing cells, and
constraints are still just like you set them
– Click the Solve button and wait for the Solver Results window to appear
– Check the Keep Solver Solution check box, and click on Answer in the
Reports box
• Solver creates the answer report and stores it in a
separate worksheet called “Answer Report”.
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A Solver Answer Report
You can see an example
of a Solver Answer
Report in this figure.
Note that it has four
sections.
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Solver Answer Report sections
• Section one of the Solver Answer report shown in the
previous slide is the title section, containing identifying
information.
• Section two is the Target Cell section. It shows the
optimization goal (in this case, “Max”), the cell's address,
the cell's name, the cell's value at the beginning of the
Solver run, and the cell's value at the end of the run.
• The third section is the Adjustable Cells section, containing
the same information (address, name, start value, ending
value) about all of the changing cells.
• The fourth section is the Constraints section.
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Configure Solver to best work with
your data
• Solver is designed to use an iterative process:
– It starts with an initial solution, and then does the problem over
and over, using different values in the changing variables
– When a change to a variable results in a better solution, Solver
makes another change to the same variable in the same direction
– When a change results in a worse solution, Solver does not make
any more changes to that variable in that direction
• Solver continues to make changes and re-run the problem,
until it arrives at a solution that is not significantly better
than the previous one.
• At that point, Solver reports success.
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Solver options you can set
•
•
•
•
•
•
Max Time - Solver will stop when it has been looking for a solution for this
much time. If it has not yet found a solution, it will give you the option of
stopping without an optimal solution or continuing for another time set.
Iterations - Solver will stop when it has done the problem this many times,
even though it may not have arrived at a solution. Again, it will give you the
option to stop or continue.
Precision - Solver continues to work until the constraints are satisfied within
this precision For example, if the value in this box is 0.000001, and the
constraint says J3 must equal 14, Solver will stop when the value in cell J3 is
within 0.000001 of 14, that is, between 13.999999 and 14.000001.
Tolerance - similar to Precision, but for integer constraints. Solver stops when
the answer is within this percent of the constraint value.
Convergence - Solver uses this to determine when a solution is significantly
better than the previous one. If the change in the two solutions is less than or
equal to this value, Solver will stop and declare that it has found a solution.
Assume Linear Model - if you know your problem can be solved with linear
functions, you can speed up Solver by checking this box.
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The Solver Options dialog box
This figure shows the Solver Options dialog box where you can tailor the way Solver
runs. Knowing about these options sometimes helps to reduce the time and effort
Solver uses to solve a problem.
You can also reduce the time and
iteration count, and raise the
precision, tolerance and
convergence levels. You can do
any or all of these things to help
Solver arrive at a solution, thus
fitting Solver to the data of your
problem, thereby making it more
efficient.
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Linear vs. non-linear functions
•
•
•
•
•
A linear function is a function that can be written as the sum of a
series of variables, where each variable is multiplied by some
constant.
A non-linear function involves using some mathematical operation
other than summation.
Solver sometimes has problems arriving at a solution to non-linear
problems, simply because in a non-linear problem, there may be
many avenues that Solver could travel to find solutions, and it is not
always possible to determine which of these directions is the best.
The rest of the choice boxes in the Solver Options dialog box have to
do with helping Solver solve non-linear problems.
Generally, these options are for the advanced user.
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