The “Science” of Political Science
How do we come to know the things we know?
How do we go about increasing our knowledge
and decreasing our ignorance?
The Three
Epistemologies:
•fideism: by “faith”
•rationalism: by mental
reflection
•empiricism: by
sensory perception and
experience
THE RATIONAL/EMPIRICAL APPROACH
Explaining
Relationships:
• What is a variable?
- Dependent variables
- Independent variables
• Measuring variables
- Nominal
- Ordinal
- Interval
- Ratio
Models and Theories:
• What is a model?
- Description
- Simplification
• What makes a “good” theory?
- Explanation
- Prediction
- Generalization
- Parsimony
- Ceteris paribus assumption
• Correlation versus causation
• Positive vs. normative theories
Types of Models Used
in the Study of Politics
• Verbal
• Visual
• Graphical
• Mathematical
EXPLAINING RELATIONSHIPS
AMONG POLITICAL VARIABLES
• Formulating hypotheses
• Testing Hypotheses
-Experimentation
-Statistical analyses
• Making probabilistic statements
USING GRAPHS TO UNDERSTAND POLITICAL AND
SOCIAL PHENOMENA
Y
No
relationship
Y
Exact, linear,
inverse
Y
Exact, linear,
direct
X
Y
X
Y
X
Y
Exact, nonlinear
Inexact, nonlinear
Inexact,
linear, direct
X
X
X
Date
Jul-93
Apr-93
Jan-93
Oct-92
Jul-92
Apr-92
Jan-92
Oct-91
Jul-91
Apr-91
Jan-91
Oct-90
Jul-90
Apr-90
Jan-90
Oct-89
Jul-89
Apr-89
Jan-89
Oct-88
Jul-88
Apr-88
Jan-88
Oct-87
Jul-87
Apr-87
Jan-87
Oct-86
Jul-86
Apr-86
Jan-86
Oct-85
Number of Monthly Recipients (x 1,000)
Time-Series Graphs
Number of Monthly AFDC Recipients in Maryland, 10/85 to 9/93
250
200
150
100
50
0
Oc
t-8
Fe 5
b8
Ju 6
n8
Oc 6
t-8
Fe 6
b8
Ju 7
n8
Oc 7
t-8
Fe 7
b8
Ju 8
n8
Oc 8
t-8
Fe 8
b8
Ju 9
n8
Oc 9
t-8
Fe 9
b9
Ju 0
n9
Oc 0
t-9
Fe 0
b9
Ju 1
n9
Oc 1
t-9
Fe 1
b9
Ju 2
n9
Oc 2
t-9
Fe 2
b9
Ju 3
n93
Number of AFDC Recipients (x 1,000)
and Unemployed (x 1,000)
Time-Series Graphs
Number of Monthly AFDC Recipients and Number of Monthly Unemployed In Maryland, 10/85 to
9/93
250
200
150
AFDC Recipients
100
Unemployment
50
0
Date
PRACTICE: Sketch a graph and explain the
relationship you would expect to find between:
1. a family’s annual household income and the amount of
money they contribute annually to political campaigns
2. the amount of money a nation budgets for national
defense and the probability that a nation will be
engaged in an armed conflict
3. the minutes of TV time purchased by a candidate
running for the U.S. Senate and the number of votes
he/she receives in the election
4. the popularity of a Democratic president and the
probability that the Republicans will win additional
seats in Congress in an upcoming election
5. the amount of money received in monthly cash benefits
($) by a woman on AFDC and the length of her
dependency period [how long her family receives
benefits]