Drought in Southeast
Colorado
Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr.
Colorado Climate Center
Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss
http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
1
Historical Perspective on Drought
Tourism
Farming
Wells
Fishing
and
Riverbeds
2
3
Through 1999
4
Through 1999
5
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
02
94
86
78
70
62
54
46
38
30
22
14
06
98
90
Precipitation (Inches)
Rocky Ford
Water Year Time Series
(1890-2002)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Years
6
Colorado Statewide Annual
Temperatures through 2002
Colorado Average Annual Temperature
(1895 - 2002)
Temperature (degrees F)
50
48
46
44
42
40
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Year
From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center
7
How we got into this drought!
8
9
10
11
12
Reservoir Storage
Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado
140
Percent of Average
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Oct 1. 1998
Oct 1. 1999
Oct 1. 2000
Oct 1. 2001
Oct 1. 2002
Feb 1. 2003
Date
Provisional Data Provided by NRCS
13
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
02
94
86
78
70
62
54
46
38
30
22
14
06
98
90
Precipitation (Inches)
Rocky Ford
Water Year Time Series
(1890-2002)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Years
14
Where do we stand now?
15
Independence Pass Snotel
for Water Year 2003
16
Hoosier Pass Snotel
for Water Year 2003
17
18
Temperature - Water Year 2003
Departure from average, degree F
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Eastern Plains
Feb
Mar
Foothills
Apr
May
Mountains
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Western Valleys
19
20
What May Be Ahead in 2003
21
What Happens Next




We have never experienced 2 consecutive
extreme statewide drought years.
Past multi-year drought, characterized by
one extreme year preceded and followed by
other dry year.
Entire Region rarely all recovers quickly and
at the same time.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!
22
Rocky Ford
Calendar Year Average Precipitation based on 1971-2000
Averages
Precipitation (Inches)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
23
Monthly Average Precipitation
3.5
Precipitation (inches)
3
Lamar
Cheyenne Wells
Walsh
Center
Fruita
Rocky Ford
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month
24
Precipitation

A few storms
contribute a large
fraction of annual
precipitation
while many small
events contribute
a small fraction.
25
Rocky Ford
Daily Accumulated Precipitation for
Years 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 (thru Jan)
and 30-Year Average
25
Precipitation (Inches)
1999 Accumulated
20
2000 Accumulated
2001 Accumulated
15
2002 Accumulated
10
2003 Accumulated
Accumulated Average
5
Au
gu
st
Se
pt
em
be
r
O
ct
ob
er
No
ve
m
be
r
De
ce
m
be
r
Ju
ly
Ju
ne
ay
M
Ap
ri l
h
ar
c
M
Ja
nu
a
ry
Fe
br
ua
ry
0
Month
26
Positive Indicators

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
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


Late winter snows
Cool spring
Multi-day precipitation
Wet Snow
Low intensity rainfall
Light winds
High humidity
Abundant cloud cover
27
Negative Indicators








Little late winter snow
Missed opportunities
Warm spring
Brief, sporadic precipitation
High intensity rainfall
Frequent, strong winds
Low humidity
Abundant sunshine
28
Current Indicators






El Niño still present
Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation
Missed opportunities
February better – but not a good
indicator
Wet often follows dry
Most extreme dry periods last one year
29
Temperature
March-May 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
30
Precipitation
March-May 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
31
Temperature
June-Aug 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
32
Precipitation
June-Aug 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
33
COAGMET
Weather Data for Agriculture

Automated weather stations with
daily and hourly readings of:






Temperature
Humidity
Wind
Precipitation
Solar energy
Evapotranspiration
http://www.COAGMET.com
34
Colorado Climate Magazine


Good bedtime reading
about the climate of
Colorado -- recent
and historic
$15/year subscription
pays printing and
mailing costs
35
CoCo RaHS
YOU CAN HELP!
http://www.cocorahs.com
36
Colorado Climate Center
Colorado State University


Data and Power Point Presentations available for
downloading
http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
click on “Drought”
then click on “Presentations”
37