U.S. economy fully recovered and getting stronger
Dec. 26, 2014
Jay Kaplan
Seven years after the U.S. plummeted into its worst economic recession
since the Great Depression all signs point to a fully recovered economy, says
CU-Boulder economist Jay Kaplan, adding it will only get better.
CUT 1 “So it wasn’t really until September or October of 2014 of this year
that I felt we could pretty much say that we’ve really made up and regained
lost ground and returned to what we could consider a full employment
economy. (:16) So I would say, finally, for the first time in almost a decade
where you can say everything looks good.” (:22)
According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. economy grew at its
fastest pace since 2003 in the third quarter on stronger consumer and
business spending. Earlier this week it adjusted the gross domestic product, or
GDP, from 3.9 percent in the three months ending Sept. 30, to an annual rate
of 5 percent.
CUT 2 “All the indicators are great, job creation is very strong. There was, like,
over 330,000 jobs created last month, which is the strongest number we’ve
seen in about a decade. (:08) The unemployment rate is down to 5.8, which
isn’t perfect, it would be nice if it was a little bit lower, but given where we’ve
been it’s pretty close to as good as it gets. (:18) So I would say the U.S.
economy is as strong as we’ve seen in almost a decade.” (:23)
Kaplan expects the economy to strengthen even more in 2015 to levels
we haven’t seen since the late 1990s when the average GDP ranged from 3 to
3.5 percent.
CUT 3 “I think it will probably be about the best year for the U.S. economy
since the late 1990s. I think the unemployment rate probably will continue to
fall given the pace of job creation. (:10) We could probably see an
unemployment rate at or below 5 and-a-half percent, which most people
would be delighted with by the end of 2015, and it might be pushing 5
percent, which would be great.” (:21)
And with the unemployment rate going down Kaplan says we most
likely will see wages going up, which has so far lagged behind the resurgent
economy.
CUT 4 “Basically we’re now, I think, at the tipping point where a lot of the
surplus labor that was created during the recession, where people just
couldn’t find jobs, a lot of those people have been absorbed, especially in
skilled areas we might see a scarcity of labor and, of course, that will bid up
wages. (:18) So if the demand can grow faster than supply, which hasn’t been
the case for seven or eight years, that’s good for workers.” (:23)
Kaplan also points out that with falling oil prices -- which means lower
gas prices -- consumers will have more cash in their pockets to spend and
that will that will only add to the expanding economy in 2015.
-CU-