We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot
Economic, Social, and Ecological
Implications of Incremental Choice
Jon D. Erickson
Rubenstein School of Environment
and Natural Resources
University of Vermont
The
FEEDBACK LOOPS
(marginal, and
episodic)
Tyranny
of potentially
Small Decisions
School
Quality
14
12
10
ppm
Traffic
Congestion
8
6
4
Energy
Dependence
2
0
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
Social Networks
Community Services
Chlorides
Marginal
Economic Change
Marginal Land-Use
Change
Incremental
Watershed Health
Decline
FEEDBACK LOOPS
Out from Under the Tyranny
Biophysical
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy
$
Economic Structure
and Change
Firms
Households
Land-Use Change
and Social Context
Watershed Health
PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY
Dutchess County, New York
•
•
•
•
•
2,077 km2, mixed land use
970 km of named streams
> 132,000 employment pool
IBM = >11,000
SW to NE development
gradient
• Effective buying income (EBI)
ranks 15th in the U.S.
Wappingers
Watershed
% urban/suburban
% forest
% agricultural
1992
Historical land use change
2001
Fishkill Watershed
% urban/suburban
% forest
% agricultural
1992
Historical land use change
2001
Increases in Percentage of Land in Urban and Suburban Uses
Percent change, 1992 to 2001
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
F01
F02
F03
F04
F05
F06
F07
F08
F09
F10
F11
F12
F13
F14
F15
F16
W01
W02
W03
W04
W05
W06
W07
W08
W09
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
0
Increases in urban and suburban land as a percent of subcatchment area,
for 33 sites in the Fishkill (designated with F codes) and Wappingers (W
codes) watersheds. Code numbers increase with distance upstream.
Group of Decision-Makers
Alt-1
DM-2
Alt-2
Alt-3
DM-1
DM-3
Individual Decision-Maker
CEc
Alt-1
CSc
Alt-3
Alt-2
CEv
GOAL
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
CEc CSc CEv
CEc CSc CEv
CEc CSc CEv
w1 + w2 + w3 = 1
CEc
Alt-1
CSc
Alt-3
Alt-2
CEv
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
F17
F07-A
Great Spring
E Branch Wapp
F02
Little Wappingers
F11
F01
Red Oak Mill-MST
Hunns Lake
F12
Stanford Rec_MST
Cold Spring Creek
F03
Quiet Acres-MST
Upton Lake
F13
F04
Gristmill Creek
F14
F08
Pleasant Valley-MST
Dutchess Co Airport
F15
Pleasant Valley East
Ecological
Criteria
Tamarack
CEc CSc
studentized residuals of NL
estimation
Alternatives
But,
biotic
Chemistry
responses
follows
Relative condition index for Longnose Dace
very
noisy!
land
use
+/- s.e.
Land Use
Alternatives
CEc
Social
Criteria
CEv
Census
by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . .
Business Point
Tax Parcel
Alternatives
Economic
Criteria
CSc CEv
GOVERMENT
HOUSEHOLDS
Public Private Goods
Services
& Services
Consumption
Goods
Labor
OUTSIDE
WORLD
Exports
Imports
Depreciation
INDUSTRY
CAPITAL
Investment
Socio-Economic Sub-Model
Scenerios
Alt 2
Alt 3
SAM_Multipliers
Land_Demand
Sectoral_Economic_Grow th
Sectoral_Economic_Decline
Estimated Round by Round Indirect Employment Impacts
Population
Grow th
80
Total_Land_Invento
50
Land_Built
Land_Reclamation
40
Real_Estate_Attribu
Building
30
Buildable_Land
Geophysical_Attibu
Land_Use_Location
20
Land_Use_Type
10
Land_Biophysical_Characteristics
Land_Use_Zonin
Ecosystem
Sub-Model
0
Storm_Events
Eating & Drinking
Job Trainings & Related Services
Legal Services
Personnel Supply Services
C2
Computer and Data Processing Services
Industry
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3 Round
Ecosystem_Impact
Scenerios
Wholesale Trade
Out
Land_Demand
Scenerios
C1
Semiconductors and Related Devices
Stock
60
M aintenance and Repair Other Facilities
In
Loss
GIS Land-Use Sub-Model
70
Employment Increase
Alt 1
Land_Development_Loading
Water_Flow
Land_Use_Location
Aquatic_Dynamics
Physicochemical_Parameters
Functional_Integretity
Biotic_Integrity
Ecosystem_Impact
Scenario Analysis
Biophysical
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy
Firms
Households
Individuals
Economic Structure
and Change
Efficient
ALLOCATION
Land-Use Change
and Social Context
Equitable
DISTRIBUTION
Watershed Health
Sustainable
SCALE
GOAL
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
CEc CSc CEv
CEc CSc CEv
CEc CSc CEv