The Iowa Electronic Markets
Macroeconomic Conditions: Measurement
and Political Implications
Economics Curriculum Using the IEM
Presidential and Congressional Control
Markets
September, 2000
Learning Objectives
Macroeconomic Conditions: Measurement and Political Implications
Module Summary
This module summarizes the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and
national elections. Students will learn how economic data provide important information
about the state of the economy, how to measure a variety of economic indicators, and
how these indicators are related to national elections. In addition, students will apply their
skills in using economic indicators to forecast election results and compare their results to
other forecasting methods (polls, Iowa Electronic Markets) as well as actual election
outcomes.
Prior to implementing this module, instructors should:

Obtain and read the background information on Ray Fair’s Vote Predictions Model
Source: fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote (with links to articles and the model)

Be familiar with the Iowa Electronic Markets Vote-Share Market (and/or Congressional
Control Market)
Sources:
(1) biz.uiowa.edu/iem/news.html (articles on the vote-share market, e.g. see Business
Week, November 11, 1996; Business Week, October 9, 2000);
(2) biz.uiowa.edu/iem/about.html (e.g. see Wall Street Journal, August 28, 1995)
Prior to this module, students should:

Be able to access the Web, go to specific Web sites, and download data

Be familiar with use of Excel spreadsheets to record data, compute simple
algebraic functions (percent change), and graph results.
2
Learning Objectives
At the end of this module, students should be able to:







identify and understand the importance of basic indicators of national economic
conditions.
obtain, utilize, and interpret macroeconomic data used to summarize national
economic conditions.
understand and explain how national economic indicators are measured and used
to summarize and describe economic conditions.
understand the relationship between national economic conditions and the
outcome of national elections.
understand how the IEM political markets are used to predict national elections
and how they differ from other election-prediction tools (e.g. polls and economic
models)
explain how accurately the Iowa Electronic Markets ( IEM) political markets have
predicted past national election outcomes relative to economic models and public
opinion polls (focus on 2000 presidential election)
(Optional, when presidential markets are open) apply the knowledge about
macroeconomic indicators and the economic data to trade in IEM political markets.
3
Lecture Outline
Macroeconomic Conditions: Measurement and Political Implications
1. Motivation
a. Does the Government Affect the Economy?
1) Government spending as % of GDP
b. Does the Economy Affect the Government?
1.) Do macroeconomic conditions influence national elections?
2.) Political quotes from past presidential elections
2. How do we Determine the Condition of the Economy?
a. Measuring Macroeconomic Conditions
1.) Inflation
2.) Unemployment
3.) Economic Growth
4.) International Trade
b. Four Questions
1) How do we measure these?
2) How well is the economy performing according to these measures?
3) How does economic performance influence national elections?
4) What influences economic performance?
3. Measuring Economic Activity
a. Inflation
1.) Definitions: CPI and Inflation Rate
2.) Formula: Inflation Rate
b. Unemployment
1.) Definition: Unemployment Rate
2.) Formulas
c. Economic Growth
1.) Definition: Growth Rate of Per Capita Real GDP
2.) Formulas
d. International Trade
1.) Definition: Current Account Balance
4
2.) Formulas
4. Economic Performance: The Historical Experience
a. The Historical Experience: 1959-1999
b. How are we doing today relative to the historical experience?
5. Does Economic Performance Affect National Elections?
a. Three tools
1.) Public Opinion Polls
2.) Iowa Electronic Markets
3.) Economic Models
a.)
Fairmodel
b. Presidential Election 2000 Predictions (Oct. 1, 2000 Predictions)
1.) Polls (actual clippings)
2.) IEM (screen shot)
3.) FairModel (calculate/show the equation)
c. Analysis
1.) How close were the three predictions to the actual results?
2.) Why were there prediction errors? What is missing?
a.) Microeconomic factors
b.) Other macroeconomic factors
6. Extension: Predicting Congressional Outcomes
a. Lewis-Beck Model
b. IEM Congressional Control Market
5
Lecture Notes
Macroeconomic Conditions: Measurement and Political Implications
Lecture notes are included as part of the Powerpoint presentation.
6
Powerpoint Slides
Macroeconomic Conditions: Measurement and Political Implications
See attached Powerpoint slides.
7
Assignment 1
Economic Indicators and Measuring Economic Activity
Assignment Overview and Objectives:
Statistics on the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and real GDP provide information on
economic conditions in the nation. These statistics are often called “economic indicators”
because of their ability to “indicate” the overall health of the economy. In this assignment,
you will learn how to obtain data on various measures of economic activity and calculate
additional economic indicators based on this data.
Assignment:
Use tables A and B on the following pages to complete this exercise.
1. Obtain quarterly nominal GDP data (NGDP) (billions of $) from the first quarter of 1996
(1996:Q1) through the fourth quarter of 2000 (2000:Q4) from the St. Louis Federal Reserve
Bank’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) Web site (http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/).
Enter this data in the second column of Table A below.
2. Obtain quarterly real GDP data (RGDP) (billions of chained 1996 $) from the first quarter of
1996 (1996:Q1) through the fourth quarter of 2000 (2000:Q4) from the St. Louis Federal
Reserve Bank’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) Web site. Enter this data in the
third column of Table A and the second column of Table B below.
3. Calculate quarterly values for the GDP Deflator (DEF) by dividing nominal GDP by real
GDP for each quarter and multiplying the resulting value by 100. Enter these values in the
fourth column of Table A below.
Example: to calculate the GDP deflator for the first quarter of 1996:
DEF1996:Q1 
Nominal GDP1996:Q1
Real GDP1996:Q1
 100
8
4. Calculate the growth rate of the GDP deflator (the inflation rate) as the percentage
change in the value of the GDP deflator from one quarter to the next and enter this
data in the fifth column of Table A below.
Example: to calculate the percentage change in the value of the GDP deflator for the
second quarter of 1996:
Growth Rate of GDP Deflator1996:Q 2 
[ DEF1996:Q 2  DEF1996:Q1 ]
DEF1996:Q1
 100
5. Obtain monthly U.S. population data (POP) from January, 1996 (1996:1) through
December, 2000 (2000:12) from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank’s Federal Reserve
Economic Data (FRED) Web site . Convert this monthly data to quarterly data by
computing the quarterly average of the monthly data and fill in the third column of Table B.
The quarterly average is calculated as the simple average of the three months included in
a particular quarter of the year.
Example: to calculate the quarterly average of the population for the first quarter of
1996:
POP1996,Quarter1 
[Population
Jan.,1996
 Population
Feb.,1996
 Population
Mar.,1996
]
3
6. Calculate quarterly per capita real GDP (PCRGDP) by dividing real GDP by the population
for each quarter. Enter this data in the fourth column of Table B on the following pages.
Example: to calculate the quarterly average of per capita real GDP for the first quarter
of 1996 (note: to obtain a value in dollars per person, the result is multiplied by 10,000
because real GDP is measured in billions of dollars and population is measured in
hundreds of thousands)
PCRGDP1996:Q1 
Real GDP1996:Q1
Population1996:Q1
 10,000
7. Calculate the growth rate of per capita real GDP as the percentage change in the
value of per capita real GDP from one quarter to the next and enter this data in the
fifth column of Table B on the following pages.
Example: to calculate the percentage change in the value of per capita real GDP for
the second quarter of 1996:
Growth Rate of Per Capita Real GDP1996:Q 2 
[ PCRGDP1996:Q 2  PCRGDP1996:Q1 ]
PCRGDP1996:Q1
9
 100
TABLE A
Year and
Quarter
Nominal GDP
(NGDP)
(billions of $)
Real GDP
(RGDP)
(billions of chained
1996 $)
1996 Q1
GDP Deflator
(DEF)
Growth Rate of
GDP Deflator (%)
Inflation Rate
Not Applicable
1996 Q2
1996 Q3
1996 Q4
1997 Q1
1997 Q2
1997 Q3
1997 Q4
1998 Q1
1998 Q2
1998 Q3
1998 Q4
1999 Q1
1999 Q2
1999 Q3
1999 Q4
2000 Q1
2000 Q2
2000 Q3
2000 Q4
10
TABLE B
Real GDP
Year and
Quarter
(RGDP)
(billions of chained
1996 $)
Population
(POP)
(hundreds of
thousands of
people)
1996 Q1
Per Capita
Real GDP
(PCRGDP)
Growth Rate of
Per Capita Real
GDP (%)
Not Applicable
1996 Q2
1996 Q3
1996 Q4
1997 Q1
1997 Q2
1997 Q3
1997 Q4
1998 Q1
1998 Q2
1998 Q3
1998 Q4
1999 Q1
1999 Q2
1999 Q3
1999 Q4
2000 Q1
2000 Q2
2000 Q3
2000 Q4
11
Sources of Economic Data
Nominal GDP
Gross Domestic Product Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source:
http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/gdp/gdp
Real GDP
Real Gross Domestic Product Billions of Chained 1996 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
Annual Rate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source:
http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/gdp/gdpc1
Population:
Total Population: All Ages Including Armed Forces Overseas Thousands Source: U.S.
Department of Commerce, Census Bureau
Source:
http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/employ/pop
2000 Poll Results:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen.htm
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/PollVault/PollVault.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/resources/polls.html
Gallup Presidential Job Approval Rating:
Source:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/trends/ptjobapp.asp
Analysis of polling data including House and Senate control:
Source:
http://www.cookpolitical.com/
12
Assignment 2
Economic Indicators and National Election Predictions
Assignment Overview and Objectives:
In this assignment, you will learn how economic indicators can be used to predict national
election results using an economic model. Using the data calculated in Assignment 1, you
will generate election forecasts for the 2000 presidential election using an economic
model developed by Ray Fair at Yale University. In addition, you will compare your
predictions to those from public opinion polls and the Iowa Electronic Markets Presidential
Vote-Share market.
Assignment:
1. Ray Fair, an economist at Yale University, has developed an economic model to predict
the Democratic share of the two-party (Republican, Democrat) presidential vote. His
model for the 2000 election is:
Dem. Vote Share = .423 + (.0070growth3) – (.0072inflation15) + (.0091highgrowth)
where
growth3 =
inflation15 =
highgrowth =
growth rate of capita real GDP in the first three quarters of the election year
absolute value of the growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters
of the administration that is in power in the year of the election
number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the administration in which the
growth rate of real per capita is greater than 3.2%
a. For the 2000 election, determine the numerical values of the variables: growth3,
inflation15, and highgrowth and calculate the value of Vote Share using the model
above.
b. Compare the value of the prediction from the Fair model to the actual 2000 election
outcome. Calculate the absolute percent error of the two-party vote-share prediction
as follows:
Absolute Percent Error 
Actual Democratic Vote Share  Predicted Democratic Vote Share
Actual Democratic Vote Share
Note: Be sure to calculate the actual democratic vote share as a percentage of the twoparty presidential vote; i.e. (dem. presidential votes/(dem. presidential votes + rep.
presidential votes)
13
c. Calculate the absolute percent error of the presidential two-party vote-share predictions
from the IEM Presidential Vote-Share market using prices from
(1) October 1, 2000, and
(2) November 6, 2000 (the day before the election).
Note: Because the IEM Presidential Vote-Share market for the 2000 presidential
election contained three contracts representing the share of the three-party presidential
vote, you need to calculate the value of the IEM two-party vote share using the
following formula:
Dem. (IEM) Vote Share 
Dem IEM Contract Price
Dem. IEM Contract Price  Rep. IEM Contract Price
d. Calculate the absolute percent error of the presidential vote-share predictions from
one of the major national opinion polls on
(1) October 1, 2000, and
(2) November 6, 2000 (the day before the election)
Note: Depending on the poll, you may need to convert the vote-share predictions
from the polls to a two-party vote share.
e. Which method (economic model, IEM markets, polls) provided the most accurate
vote-share predictions (1) a month before the election (October 1, 2000), and (2)
one day before the election (November 6, 2000)? Why do you think that was?
Why did the other methods predict less accurately, in your view?
f.
Based on your analysis and results, do you think that national economic conditions
played a dominant role in the 2000 presidential election? Explain.
14
Evaluation Questions
Macroeconomic Conditions: Measurement and Political Implications
Essay questions:
1. Briefly define and explain the followings:
- Inflation rate
- Unemployment rate
- National economic growth rate
- International trade deficit and surplus
2. Assume that the economy has experienced both high inflation and unemployment
rates, what is the terminology used to represent this condition? During what period
has this occurred? How does the combination of high inflation and unemployment
affect the reelection of the current president for a second term? How about the
reelection of senators and members of congress?
3. How is the inflation rate measured? What index is usually used to measure
inflation? Why are high inflation rates are considered harmful?
4. Who is officially considered “unemployed”? How is the unemployment measured?
What is meant by the natural rate of unemployment?
5. What is meant by the gross domestic production (GDP)? What is per capita GDP?
Why is national economic growth measured by real per capita GDP?
6. Does the external economic relation of the nation (trade deficit/surplus and capital
inflow and outflow) have any effect on the value of dollar in the foreign exchange
market and on the economy as a whole? Is a continuous trade deficit combined
with capital outflow an indication of change in economic condition or the overall
productivity of the nation?
7. The Fair model is used as an example of economic models used for the prediction
of an election. What are the general economic indicators used as variables in the
Fair model? How does the model predict the election based on the economic
conditions?
8. IEM political market has had a good record in predicting the national elections.
The traders in IEM political market use their judgement about the economic
conditions as well as the public opinion polls to guide their trades. Evaluate this
statement.
9. What is the difference between consumer price index and the GDP deflator?
15
Multiple Choice Questions:
1. The U.S. experienced highest inflation during the:
a. 1960s
b. 1970s
c. 1980s
d. 1990s
2. During the 1990s,
a. inflation increased and unemployment increased too
b. inflation decreased and unemployment increased
c. inflation increased and unemployment decreased
d. inflation decreased and unemployment decreased too
3. Consumer price index is a measure of
a. costs and prices.
b. cost of purchased goods by manufacturers.
c. intermediate goods prices.
d. change in the market value of a basket of goods and services that a typical
urban person (household) consumes.
4. Unemployed is officially defined as
a. a person 16 years old or older who is not employed and has tried to find work
during the last four weeks as recorded by the employment office
b. a person who is retired or not working
c. a person who has not been working at least three months
d. a person who has not worked six months or more in the year.
5. National debt is created by
a. excessive consumer spending
b. accumulated annual government budget deficits not offset by government
budget surpluses
c. excessive surplus and low deficit spending
d. accumulated of debts in the business sector
6. An increase in trade deficit combined with net capital outflow causes the value of
dollar to
a. increase in the foreign exchange market
b. decrease in the foreign exchange market
c. change only if the government sets a new rate
d. none of the above
16
7. The U.S. gross domestic product is
a. the total market value of the all final goods and services produced by factors of
production located in U.S. during a year
b. the total market value of savings and investments
c. total values of goods produced by U.S. citizens in U.S. and abroad
d. total value of production in the 48 contiguous states in U.S.
8. The Fair model as discussed in relation to IEM political markets can be used for
prediction of
a. the fair share of government expenditure as a percentage of GNP
b. fairness of income distribution
c. the vote share of Democratic presidential candidates in a national election
d. fair share of business in political contributions for election.
17
Appendix A:
The Iowa Electronic Markets: Presidential Vote Share Market
Overview
This module assumes that you are familiar with the IEM Presidential Vote-Share market.
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM for short) is a computerized market on which financial
contracts can be traded (bought or sold). The contracts are briefly described in the
following sections and in more depth in the IEM Trader’s Manual. Detailed descriptions of
the Presidential Vote-Share market is available in the Prospectus, available at the IEM
websites listed below:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres00_vs.html
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pr_Pres00_VS.html
Presidential Vote-Share Market Contracts
The IEM Presidential Election Market is a real-money futures market where contract
payoffs are determined by the popular vote cast in the U.S. Presidential Election. The
market is open to all traders world-wide. The payoffs in this market are based on the
popular vote received by the Democratic, Reform, and Republican nominees in the U.S.
Presidential election.
Description of Contracts
The financial contracts traded in this market are:
Code
Contract Name
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
1$ times 3-party vote share of Democratic Party nominee
1$ times 3-party vote share of Reform Party nominee
1$ times 3-party vote share of Republican Party nominee
Once a party's official nominee is determined, the name of the associated contract will be
changed for clarity. However, the contracts will always denote the official Democratic,
Reform, and Republican party nominees. If a party's candidate subsequently drops out of
the Presidential race, the related contract will denote the person designated as the official
replacement by that party and the name of the contract will be changed accordingly.
18
Contract Liquidation
This is a vote-share market. To determine payoffs, the total popular vote received by the
Democratic, Reform, and Republican nominees will be summed up and the percentage of
that total that each of the three nominees received will be determined. Each contract will
pay off $1.00 times that party's percentage of the three-party vote. For instance, contracts
for a nominee that receives 32.4% of the three-party vote, will payoff 32.4 cents each.
Votes received by any other presidential candidates will not be used to determine payoffs
in this market.
For the 2000 presidential election, the Friday, November 10, 2000, New York Times was
used as the official source used to determine payoffs. Note: In the event that one of the
parties' popular vote was not reported, that vote share will be assumed to be zero.
IEM-related Web Resources:

Iowa Electronic Markets Home Page
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/index.html

Political Market Information
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/mediainfo.html

Historical Data
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/historicaldata.html

News Stories about the IEM Political Markets
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/99news.html
19
Appendix B:
Historical Macroeconomic Data
Quarterly GDP Data:
Nominal GDP
Gross Domestic Product Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source:
http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/gdp/gdp
Real GDP
Real Gross Domestic Product Billions of Chained 1996 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
Annual Rate, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source:
http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/gdp/gdpc1
Year and
Quarter
Nominal
GDP
Real
GDP
1996.1
1996.2
1996.3
1996.4
1997.1
1997.2
1997.3
1997.4
1998.1
1998.2
1998.3
1998.4
1999.1
1999.2
1999.3
1999.4
2000.1
2000.2
7629.6
7782.7
7859.0
7981.4
8124.2
8279.8
8390.9
8478.6
8634.7
8722.0
8829.1
8974.9
9104.5
9191.5
9340.9
9559.7
9752.7
9945.7
7676.4
7802.9
7841.9
7931.3
8016.4
8131.9
8216.6
8272.9
8404.9
8465.6
8537.6
8654.5
8730.0
8783.2
8905.8
9084.1
9191.8
9318.9
20
Monthly Population Data
Total Population: All Ages Including Armed Forces Overseas, Thousands, U.S.
Department of Commerce, Census Bureau
Source:
http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/employ/pop
Year and
Month
Population
1996.01
1996.02
1996.03
1996.04
1996.05
1996.06
1996.07
1996.08
1996.09
1996.10
1996.11
1996.12
1997.01
1997.02
1997.03
1997.04
1997.05
1997.06
1997.07
1997.08
1997.09
1997.10
1997.11
1997.12
1998.01
1998.02
1998.03
1998.04
1998.05
1998.06
1998.07
1998.08
1998.09
1998.10
1998.11
1998.12
1999.01
1999.02
1999.03
264331
264486
264662
264861
265059
265278
265502
265750
265998
266237
266475
266664
266840
267007
267190
267396
267599
267818
268048
268311
268563
268799
269009
269189
269379
269536
269699
269886
270078
270287
270509
270763
271007
271240
271459
271644
271841
271987
272142
21
1999.04
1999.05
1999.06
1999.07
1999.08
1999.09
1999.10
1999.11
1999.12
2000.01
2000.02
2000.03
2000.04
2000.05
2000.06
2000.07
2000.08
272317
272508
272718
272945
273197
273439
273672
273891
274076
274271
274423
274583
274765
274952
275155
275372
275619
22
Appendix C:
Historical IEM Data
Price and Volume History from the 2000 PRES00_VS Market
Low/High/Average prices refer to prices beginning at 12:00:01am and ending at 11:59:59pm. LastPrice
refers to the price of the last trade before midnight.
Date
Contract
Units
$Volume
LowPrice
HighPrice
AvgPrice
LastPrice
September 2000 Contract Prices
09/01/00
09/01/00
09/01/00
09/02/00
09/02/00
09/02/00
09/03/00
09/03/00
09/03/00
09/04/00
09/04/00
09/04/00
09/05/00
09/05/00
09/05/00
09/06/00
09/06/00
09/06/00
09/07/00
09/07/00
09/07/00
09/08/00
09/08/00
09/08/00
09/09/00
09/09/00
09/09/00
09/10/00
09/10/00
09/10/00
09/11/00
09/11/00
09/11/00
09/12/00
09/12/00
09/12/00
09/13/00
09/13/00
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
22
2
7
2
0
1
0
0
12
0
0
0
5
5
19
11
35
143
127
36
253
10
35
12
0
1
19
150
0
0
63
26
245
133
55
77
179
32
10.868
0.044
3.416
0.986
0.000
0.490
0.000
0.000
5.846
0.000
0.000
0.000
2.464
0.095
9.291
5.462
0.620
69.620
63.380
0.606
122.874
5.062
0.545
5.802
0.000
0.017
9.139
75.660
0.000
0.000
31.937
0.427
116.276
67.895
0.880
36.544
93.447
0.547
0.494
0.022
0.488
0.493
0.000
0.490
0.000
0.000
0.486
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.492
0.019
0.489
0.493
0.017
0.486
0.499
0.016
0.483
0.501
0.015
0.481
0.504
0.015
0.481
0.503
0.000
0.000
0.505
0.015
0.472
0.507
0.016
0.473
0.517
0.016
23
0.494
0.022
0.488
0.493
0.000
0.490
0.000
0.000
0.490
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.493
0.019
0.489
0.497
0.018
0.489
0.501
0.017
0.486
0.509
0.016
0.486
0.504
0.017
0.481
0.506
0.000
0.000
0.508
0.019
0.483
0.517
0.016
0.476
0.530
0.019
0.494
0.022
0.488
0.493
0.490
0.487
0.493
0.019
0.489
0.497
0.018
0.487
0.499
0.017
0.486
0.506
0.016
0.484
0.017
0.481
0.504
0.507
0.016
0.475
0.510
0.016
0.475
0.522
0.017
0.494
0.022
0.488
0.493
0.022
0.490
0.493
0.022
0.486
0.493
0.022
0.486
0.493
0.019
0.489
0.497
0.017
0.487
0.501
0.017
0.483
0.509
0.015
0.481
0.504
0.017
0.481
0.503
0.017
0.481
0.507
0.017
0.472
0.517
0.016
0.474
0.530
0.017
09/13/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/15/00
09/15/00
09/15/00
09/16/00
09/16/00
09/16/00
09/17/00
09/17/00
09/17/00
09/18/00
09/18/00
09/18/00
09/19/00
09/19/00
09/19/00
09/20/00
09/20/00
09/20/00
09/21/00
09/21/00
09/21/00
09/22/00
09/22/00
09/22/00
09/23/00
09/23/00
09/23/00
09/24/00
09/24/00
09/24/00
09/25/00
09/25/00
09/25/00
09/26/00
09/26/00
09/26/00
09/27/00
09/27/00
09/27/00
09/28/00
09/28/00
09/28/00
09/29/00
09/29/00
09/29/00
09/30/00
09/30/00
09/30/00
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
64
109
79
52
17
15
91
158
6
83
85
2
3
161
146
126
38
8
36
219
35
15
9
1
1
30
1
1
50
0
31
126
6
114
31
10
73
53
112
20
16
0
40
98
17
165
8
0
182
39
78
176
30.250
56.640
1.435
24.177
8.855
0.255
41.955
82.079
0.108
38.201
43.906
0.036
1.388
84.218
2.551
58.332
20.046
0.129
16.709
112.545
0.634
7.079
4.603
0.018
0.474
15.298
0.016
0.473
25.360
0.000
14.744
63.378
0.102
55.178
15.753
0.164
35.240
26.816
1.984
9.668
8.064
0.000
19.399
48.983
0.255
80.031
4.030
0.000
88.678
19.407
1.180
86.484
0.470
0.518
0.017
0.460
0.520
0.017
0.461
0.517
0.018
0.460
0.516
0.018
0.462
0.520
0.016
0.459
0.525
0.016
0.463
0.509
0.016
0.469
0.509
0.018
0.474
0.508
0.016
0.473
0.506
0.000
0.473
0.503
0.017
0.483
0.501
0.016
0.481
0.502
0.014
0.483
0.504
0.019
0.483
0.499
0.015
0.485
0.498
0.000
0.485
0.497
0.015
0.490
24
0.475
0.523
0.019
0.468
0.521
0.017
0.465
0.522
0.018
0.464
0.522
0.018
0.463
0.529
0.022
0.464
0.528
0.017
0.473
0.522
0.019
0.473
0.515
0.018
0.474
0.514
0.019
0.476
0.511
0.000
0.485
0.503
0.017
0.485
0.509
0.018
0.485
0.506
0.018
0.485
0.504
0.019
0.486
0.504
0.018
0.486
0.506
0.000
0.490
0.498
0.016
0.495
0.473
0.520
0.018
0.465
0.521
0.017
0.461
0.519
0.018
0.460
0.517
0.018
0.463
0.523
0.017
0.463
0.528
0.016
0.464
0.514
0.018
0.472
0.511
0.018
0.474
0.510
0.016
0.473
0.507
0.476
0.503
0.017
0.484
0.508
0.016
0.483
0.506
0.018
0.483
0.504
0.485
0.500
0.015
0.485
0.504
0.487
0.498
0.015
0.491
0.470
0.518
0.017
0.463
0.520
0.017
0.461
0.517
0.018
0.464
0.522
0.018
0.463
0.520
0.016
0.463
0.528
0.016
0.463
0.509
0.019
0.473
0.514
0.018
0.474
0.512
0.016
0.473
0.511
0.016
0.485
0.503
0.017
0.485
0.507
0.016
0.485
0.505
0.018
0.483
0.504
0.019
0.485
0.499
0.015
0.486
0.506
0.015
0.490
0.497
0.015
0.495
Ocober 2000 Contract Prices
10/01/00
10/01/00
10/01/00
10/02/00
10/02/00
10/02/00
10/03/00
10/03/00
10/03/00
10/04/00
10/04/00
10/04/00
10/05/00
10/05/00
10/05/00
10/06/00
10/06/00
10/06/00
10/07/00
10/07/00
10/07/00
10/08/00
10/08/00
10/08/00
10/09/00
10/09/00
10/09/00
10/10/00
10/10/00
10/10/00
10/11/00
10/11/00
10/11/00
10/12/00
10/12/00
10/12/00
10/13/00
10/13/00
10/13/00
10/14/00
10/14/00
10/14/00
10/15/00
10/15/00
10/15/00
10/16/00
10/16/00
10/16/00
10/17/00
10/17/00
10/17/00
10/18/00
10/18/00
10/18/00
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
2
76
54
103
2,077
300
75
113
154
17
16
13
58
8
22
4
501
66
259
400
4
258
30
20
125
12
19
27
55
29
27
1,687
12
28
371
33
14
4
1
18
20
163
68
2,069
14
309
4
40
429
140
487
41
7
27
1.010
1.064
26.470
50.667
134.013
146.945
38.077
3.665
73.892
8.662
0.414
6.198
29.646
0.164
10.508
2.060
10.522
31.042
132.090
7.200
1.904
131.484
0.540
9.490
64.184
0.221
9.186
13.468
1.182
14.100
13.586
35.863
5.864
13.966
7.132
16.073
6.934
0.108
0.489
8.830
0.360
80.967
33.651
25.205
6.886
151.844
0.044
19.818
212.415
1.820
242.550
20.441
0.106
13.365
0.505
0.014
0.490
0.490
0.013
0.483
0.490
0.021
0.473
0.505
0.021
0.468
0.508
0.021
0.470
0.000
0.000
0.472
0.510
0.018
0.476
0.500
0.018
0.471
0.500
0.018
0.480
0.497
0.018
0.481
0.496
0.017
0.484
0.494
0.018
0.485
0.495
0.027
0.489
0.490
0.018
0.489
0.489
0.011
0.488
0.489
0.011
0.492
0.489
0.012
0.492
0.492
0.012
0.493
25
0.505
0.014
0.491
0.499
0.140
0.490
0.539
0.049
0.489
0.513
0.029
0.480
0.513
0.022
0.478
0.000
0.000
0.472
0.510
0.018
0.476
0.510
0.018
0.487
0.515
0.023
0.487
0.505
0.023
0.487
0.505
0.029
0.490
0.502
0.029
0.489
0.497
0.027
0.489
0.495
0.018
0.499
0.496
0.016
0.498
0.497
0.011
0.498
0.507
0.017
0.503
0.507
0.016
0.502
0.505
0.014
0.490
0.492
0.065
0.490
0.508
0.032
0.480
0.510
0.026
0.477
0.511
0.021
0.478
0.515
0.021
0.470
0.510
0.018
0.476
0.510
0.018
0.475
0.513
0.018
0.483
0.499
0.021
0.486
0.503
0.021
0.489
0.499
0.019
0.487
0.495
0.027
0.489
0.491
0.018
0.497
0.495
0.012
0.492
0.491
0.011
0.495
0.495
0.013
0.498
0.499
0.015
0.495
0.505
0.014
0.490
0.490
0.025
0.483
0.495
0.021
0.489
0.507
0.021
0.478
0.513
0.022
0.470
0.515
0.022
0.472
0.510
0.018
0.476
0.500
0.018
0.471
0.500
0.018
0.487
0.497
0.018
0.487
0.503
0.018
0.484
0.497
0.018
0.489
0.495
0.027
0.489
0.490
0.018
0.499
0.496
0.016
0.498
0.489
0.011
0.498
0.499
0.012
0.503
0.495
0.016
0.493
10/19/00
10/19/00
10/19/00
10/20/00
10/20/00
10/20/00
10/21/00
10/21/00
10/21/00
10/22/00
10/22/00
10/22/00
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
DemVS
ReformVS
RepVS
67
12
59
113
11
3
90
0
0
2
0
19
32.956
0.192
29.164
55.358
0.132
1.497
44.006
0.000
0.000
0.988
0.000
9.481
0.489
0.016
0.493
0.489
0.012
0.493
0.485
0.000
0.000
0.494
0.000
0.499
0.498
0.016
0.499
0.497
0.012
0.499
0.489
0.000
0.000
0.494
0.000
0.499
0.492
0.016
0.494
0.490
0.012
0.499
0.489
0.494
0.499
The rest of the IEM data for the 2000 election will be added as it becomes available…
26
0.490
0.016
0.499
0.489
0.012
0.493
0.485
0.012
0.493
0.494
0.012
0.499