Christopher A. Preble
• “I’m not one who is going to
stand before you and say we
should cut the defense
budget.”
• “I’m for making sure that
America remains the world
leader, not becoming
second or third or fourth in
the list.”
Latin America
3.35%
Central/South Asia
2.65%
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.86%
Russia
3.73%
Middle East and
North Africa
6%
East Asia and
Australasia
7%
United States
47.88%
China
9.47%
Non-NATO Europe
1.38%
NATO Ex-US
17.15%
Source: IISS, The Military Balance 2011
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
USSR/Russia
China
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
0%
US
Source: U.S. State Department “World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers” Database
U
or
w
ay
St
at
es
G
re
ec
e
er
m
an
y
an
ad
a
Sources: IISS, The Military Balance 1999-2000; 2011
Tu
rk
ey
Po
rtu
ga
l
Lu
xe
m
bo
ur
g
Sp
ai
n
Ita
ly
Be
lg
iu
m
G
C
en
m
ar
k
N
et
he
rl a
nd
s
D
$0
Ki
ng
do
m
Fr
an
ce
N
ni
te
d
ni
te
d
U
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Source: The Budget for Fiscal Year 2011, Historical Tables,
Table 6-1 -- Composition of Outlays: 1940-2015, pp. 130-132.
2002
2006
2010
$700.0
$600.0
$500.0
$400.0
$300.0
$200.0
$100.0
$0.0
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Source: The Budget for Fiscal Year 2011, Historical Tables,
Table 6-1 -- Composition of Outlays: 1940-2015, pp. 130-132.
Figures in billions of constant FY 2005 dollars.
2002
2006
2010
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2000
2001 2002
2003
2004
Total DOD Budget
Iraq and Afghanistan
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Base DOD Budget
2000 Held Constant
Data compiled by Winslow Wheeler, Straus Military Reform Project, Center for Defense Information.
Figures in billions of constant FY 2011 dollars.
• An emerging consensus
– We must cut spending, and DoD should not
be exempt
• A dispute over how to cut
– Improving efficiency and eliminating waste
doesn’t get you very far
• Real cuts are feasible
– Politically and strategically, if we refocus our
goals
• At least four false, expensive, and bipartisan
assumptions inhibit spending cuts.
– Alliances distribute our defense burden rather than
adding to it.
– Counterterrorism requires counterinsurgency, and we
can master counterinsurgency.
– Primacy pays; we should try to run the world.
– Security threats are imminent, and require urgent
attention and persistent global presence.
• “War made the state and the state made war”
– Charles Tilly
• War is still “a friend of the state”
– Milton Friedman
• Libertarians should treat war “with great
skepticism”
– David Boaz
• The Founders were right
– “Defence against foreign danger have been always the
instruments of tyranny at home.” (Madison)
– “This system will not hurry us into war.” (James Wilson)
• Sen. Barack Obama was right
– “Stopping an actual or imminent threat”
• Pres. Obama (and Sen. McCain) are not
Christopher Preble
Director of Foreign Policy Studies
Cato Institute
202-218-4630
cpreble@cato.org