Waccamaw Regional
Economic Outlook
Fall and Winter 2011
October 18, 2011
Dr. Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
Prepared and Presented by Dr. Rob Salvino, Research Economist, BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration, Coastal Carolina University
October 2011
Value
History
Previous
Quarter
Summer 2011
Airport Deplanements (thousands)
Port Tonnage (thousands)
Occupancy Rate (Full Week)
Average Daily Rate (Full Week)
Horry County 1.5% Hosp. Fee Revenue ($millions)
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($millions)
Admissions Tax Revenue ($millions)
Regional SF Building Permits
Regional MF Building Permits
Retail Sales ($millions)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Employment (thousands)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Unemployment Rate
Georgetown County
Horry County
$
$
$
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Fall 2011
Percent Change from Previous Year
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Winter 2012
History
Previous
Quarter
Summer 2011
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Fall 2011
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Winter 2012
337.2
206.5
131.6
8.94
114.2
134.5
94.6
259.2
79.3
43.9
25
-1.23
139
65.6
51.6
13.4
13.8 New Metric: Begin analysis and forecasting next quarter for comparison 3.7
9.2
$
2.9
$
1.0
3.3
3.9
$
2.0
$
1.1
-3.8
463
292
346
38.6
25
23
24
-43.9
-5.9
192.8
7.97
1
0.0
25.9
0.88
-1.35
6.1
6.5
-7.8
-7.2
3.7
11.8
10.3
18.6
$ 371.6
$ 2,774.1
$ 300.3
$ 2,074.9
$ 279.0
$ 1,759.3
5.5
0.7
1.5
2.7
-7.8
-3
27.6
129.2
26.9
122.1
26.3
116
0.2
2.6
0.4
4.3
0.3
4.3
11.1
10.1
10.8
10.2
11.9
11.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-1.1
-0.2
-1.5
Notes: Spring quarter is March - May, Summer is June - August, Fall is September - November, Winter is December - February. Retail Sales, Accomodations Tax Revenue and
Admissions Tax Revenue represent the period of business activity. For example, Accommodations Taxes for Summer represent the business activity incurrec during the Summer quarter.
Percent change from previous year is relative to the same quarter from the previous year. For example, percent change for Summer 2010 is the percent change between Summer 2009 and
Summer 2010. Rate given is absolute change for: Occupancy Rate, ADR and Unemployment Rates. For example, the given change for the Occupancy Rate during Summer 2009 is simply the
Summer 2010 Occupancy Rate minus the Summer 2009 Occupancy Rate. Reporting delays skew Retail Sales Year-over-Year comparisons.
Grand Strand Economic Outlook: Fall and Winter 2011
Questions may be directed to Dr. Rob Salvino, 843-349-2719, rsalvino@coastal.edu
Real GDP Growth
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
3.9
3.8
2.5
2.3
0.4
1.3
1.2
1.5
US Retail Sales
1,100,000
1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000
900,000
850,000
800,000
750,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
$938.9
$964.9
$964.5
$994.4
1.02
1.04
$1.041
$1.05
MYB Airport Deplanements
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
230.5
309.5
220.1
110.7
239.4
337.2
207.1
110.7
Georgetown Port Tonnage
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
30.6
31.8
45.9
75.1
95.0
114.2
134.5
94.5
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
53.5
80.5
35.9
24.1
51.9
79.3
43.9
25.01
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Avg Daily Rate
140
120
100
80
60
40
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
89.1
125.7
64.6
53.0
85.7
139.0
65.6
51.6
Horry 1.5% Hopitality Fee Revenue
(County-wide fees on accommodations, prepared foods, beverages and admissions)
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
$6.49
13.35
5.74
3.22
6.99
13.84
Begin Q4
Begin Q4
Accommodations Tax Revenue
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2.9
9.5
$2.7
0.96
3.8
9.8
2.93
1.01
5% State Admissions Tax
4,400,000
4,000,000
3,600,000
3,200,000
2,800,000
2,400,000
2,000,000
1,600,000
1,200,000
800,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2.48
4.03
1.83
.977
2.62
3.89
1.95
1.09
Regional SF Permits
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
482
334
317
314
419
463
292
346
Regional MF Permits
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
47
44
25
20
42
25
23
24
Regional Retail Sales
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2.34
3.10
2.32
2.12
2.18
3.15
2.38
2.04
Regional Employment
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
143.8
153.4
144.0
137.5
146.7
156.7
149.1
142.3
Regional Unemployment Rate
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
11.8
10.6
11.3
12.9
10.6
10.3
10.3
11.7