(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
CII Institute of Logistics
PGDSCM/DSCM/ADSCM & CERTIFICATE PROGRAMS
Semester-end Examinations- December 2011
6.
The “economic perspective” approach to demand forecasting takes into
price consideration in the following manner:
(a) Price as the sole consideration
(b) Price as a necessary and sufficient consideration
(c) Price as a necessary but insufficient consideration
(d) Price is not the only consideration
7.
While doing long term planning for a firm, the most important
consideration is:
(a) Demand and Sales Forecast
(b) Demand Forecast alone
(c) Sales Forecast alone
(d) Existing Inventory
8.
Any time series data could have any of ( Pick the WRONG ONE):
(a) Basic Element
(b) Trend Element
(c) Seasonality Element
(d) Cyclical Element
9.
The double exponential smoothing method is also known as the :
(a) Leontief model
(b) Holt’s model
(c) Winter’s model
(d) Descartes model
DEMAND PLANNING & FORECASTING
Time: 3 hours
Marks: 100
Part A
Answer all questions
1.
2.
3.
(10 x 1 = 10 Marks)
For a given product, the relationship between its demand forecast and
sales forecast can be correctly described as under:
(a) Demand forecast and sales forecast are the same
(b) Demand forecast is lower than the sales forecast
(c) Sales forecast is lower than the demand forecast
(d) There is no relationship at all
Demand for a product arises when:
(a) Consumer is able and willing to buy
(b) Consumer is willing to buy at a price
(c) Consumer is able to buy at a price
(d) Consumer is willing and able to buy at a price
Price elasticity of supply for inelastic goods is:
(a) Less than one
(b) Greater than one
(c) Equal to one
(d) Equal to zero
4.
Sales Forecast Error basically show the difference between :
(a) Sales Forecast and Actual Demand
(b) Demand Forecast and Sales Forecast
(c) Sales Forecast and Actual Sales
(d) None of the above
5.
Income elasticity of demand (YED) = % change in quantity demanded /%
change in income. If YED is negative , then the :
Good is normal
Good is inferior
Good is superior
Good is irrelevant
10. The ‘Delphi ‘ method of forecasting usually seeks opinions of:
(a) Key management members
(b) Key operating executives
(c) Key customers
(d) Key experts
Part B
Answer any four
2.
(a) demand for rail freight services
(b) students entering engineering colleges
(c) roadside snack stall
4. As an operating supply chain manager, how would you go about selecting a
suitable forecasting method and logic? What various business factors and
considerations would you take into account in your decision-making process?
5. What is supply management? What does it involve? Can an organization really
influence supply quantities and thro’ what means?
6. What are key advantages of moving averages and exponential smoothing? What
are its disadvantages?
Part C
Answer any 2
2007 -
83
2008 -
94
2009 -
99
2010-
92
Based on the below data( in million tons) for tonnage of cargo being
handled by a seaport, work out the projected cargo movement for 2012
and 2013 using the 4 year moving average method forecasting.
Year
Tonnage
Year
Tonnage
2000
1102
2006
1452
2001
1250
2007
1549
2002
1180
2008
1586
2003
1340
2009
1476
2004
1212
2010
1624
2005
1317
2011( estimated)
1586
(2*15=30 marks)
Below are the sales figures (in ‘000 numbers) of a TV manufacturing
company. Using the method of fitting a trend line, estimate the likely
sales during 2011 and 2012.
Year
92
(4x15= 60 marks)
1. What is the importance of forecasting in any business? Why is it so important
and what are the likely implications if not done?
2. Name and describe three quantitative forecasting methods used in business
today.
3. Linear regression analysis is based on identifying independent variables and
gathering historical data for these variables. Name and justify at least three
Independent variables each to forecast these dependent variables:
1.
2006 -
Sales
2004 -
80
2005 -
90
3.
A retail outlet deals with a wide range of gift articles (ranging in unit
value from Rs 100 to Rs 1000). Identify the various factors influencing the
demand and sales for this range of gift articles. What kind of data inputs
will be useful for this purpose? Do suggest a suitable and appropriate
type of sales forecasting method and justify your choice.
************************************