8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Effect of Exchange Rate, Inflation and Wages on the Purchasing Power of Consumers in Different Economies Jian Zhang Harvard University Extension School, Cambridge, MA, USA Barr Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Pomona, NY, USA Tel: (845)362-2753 Fax: (845)362-2832 Acknowledgements The author would like to thanks Dr. B. Watson for teaching the basic concepts of finance, B. Kang and S.U. Ahmed for the helpful discussions on the subject, and E. Fitzpatrick for proofreading the manuscript. October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 1 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 ABSTRACT The purchasing power of a consumer depends upon wealth and the prices of the goods and services. The customer can purchase domestically or from aboard. The domestic purchasing power is mainly affected by the inflation rate of individual countries, and it is relatively equitable across mature economies. The international purchasing power is more volatile and is affected by both exchange rate and prices. A consumer’s buying power is also influenced by the changes in wages relative to inflation. Analysis of current exchange rates, prices and wages leads to the belief that foreign shoppers can get better bargains in Japan and the US at the present time. Consumers in emerging economies especially China and Russia have experienced significant improvement in purchasing power recently. They may catch up with the living standard of rich countries in the future if this growth rate sustains. INTRODUCTION The purchasing power of a consumer depends upon wealth and the prices of the goods and services. The customer can purchase domestically or from aboard if there is a free trade condition. If the purchase occurs in the international market, exchange rate will play a role in calculating affordability. Furthermore, a consumer who is employed earns income while spending. His/her buying power also depends on the changes in wages relative to inflation. This article discusses the factors such as exchange rate, prices and October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 wage level affecting the purchasing power of consumers who reside in various countries in the world from 2000 to 2008. PURCHASING POWER PARITY First, let’s look at the situation of domestic buying. Gustav Cassel developed the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory in 1920 to compare the purchasing power of different currencies in their home countries based on the assumption that identical goods should have the same price (law of one price). PPP exchange rate is defined in Equation 1: PPP P Dom P For (Eq. 1) where PDom is demoestic price, and PFor is foreign price. The relative purchasing power parity relates the inflation rate (change of prices) in each country to the change in the market exchange rate and is given in Equation 2: PPPrel Pt For / Pt For 1 Pt Dom / Pt Dom 1 (Eq. 2) where Pt is the price level in period t. To calculate the relative purchasing power parity of all of the goods and services consumed in a country, we can substitute Pt with the consumer price index (CPI) of that country, which leads to Equation 3: PPPrel October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy CPI tFor / CPI tFor 1 Dom Dom CPI t / CPI t 1 3 (Eq. 3) 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 1 shows the consumer price indexes of thirteen relatively large countries or economies. The inflation rate is higher in the emerging economies than in the developed countries because of the higher rate of economic growth. Figure 2 shows the changes in relative purchasing power parity of the above economies calculated by Equation 3. By this calculation, one may conclude that the US dollar has appreciated against the Mexican, Indian, South African, Brazilian, and Russian currencies by 10% to 217% while depreciated against the Australian, European, Canadian, British, Chinese, and Saudi Arabian currencies by 1% to 10% from 2000 to 2008 if the consumptions are domestic. This can be attributed to the difference in inflation rate of these countries. Japan’s disinflation condition between 2000 and 2008 caused the US dollar to weaken approximately 20% over the same time period. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has conducted similar calculation that includes more factors such as gross domestic product (GDP). The PPP exchange rates published by the IMF are displayed in the following Figure 3. The data shown in Figure 2 are consistent with the IMF data. It was recognized by many economists that the PPP exchange rate calculation is not perfect because of the difficulties in finding the same baskets of goods to compare across countries. The weighing of goods and services in the CPI index is not identical among different countries. Often times, the quality of goods and service purchased varies considerably, for example, Americans probably drive better cars and drink cleaner water October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 4 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 than many people in developing countries. Moreover, many social benefits offered by the welfare countries may not be included in the CPI calculations, and this makes direct comparison of purchasing power difficult. Nevertheless, this methodology gives us a rough idea how consumers are doing in different economies. REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE When consumers or businesses purchase goods and services from foreign countries, they will need to exchange the available domestic currency to foreign currencies in order to fulfill the trade. The price of one currency in terms of another currency is called the exchange rate, and it is determined by the currency market and in some cases by individual governments. The exchange rates of twelve foreign currencies to the US dollar from 2000 to 2008 are shown in Table 1. The US dollar depreciated against most currencies in terms of market exchange rate after 2002, except for the Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real (until 2006). Many people misunderstand the real prices if only the nominal (market) exchange rate is considered for the trade. For example, a three-bedroom apartment in China costs about 1,500,000 Yuan while a similar apartment in the US cost about 400,000 Dollar. A postdoctorate position in Oxford University in England is paid about 40,000 Pound per year while a similar position in Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US is paid 60,000 Dollar per year. The market exchange rates do not reflect the real difference of the prices. Therefore, the real exchange rate which considers both the nominal exchange October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 5 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 rate and prices should be used for international trade. The real exchange rate is defined in Equation 4: P Dom Re al Exchange Rate (e) Nominal Exchange Rate ( E ) For P (Eq. 4) where PDom is domestic price, and PFor is foreign price. Using the above two examples, the real exchange rates would be 1.8 Chinese apartment = 1 American apartment, and 0.75 Oxford salary = 1 MIT salary in 2008. If we substitute prices with CPI indexes in the above equation, the real exchange for all the goods and services can be estimated by Equation 5: CPI Dom e E CPI For (Eq. 5) Figure 4 and Figure 5 show the percent changes of nominal exchange rate and real (CPI) exchange rate from 2000 to 2008 and the values are not the same. When inflation (price change) rates are taken into account, the dollar actually strengthens against the Japanese Yen and Saudi Arabian Riyal while the advantage over the Peso and the Real (until 2005) diminished. The magnitude of depreciation of the US dollar against the British Pound, the Euro, the Canadian Dollar, and the Chinese Yuan is 2-5% better in the real rate than in the nominal rate. On the other hand, the dollar depreciated more against the Indian Rupee, the South African Rand (after 2002), and the Russian Ruble in the real rate than in the nominal rate. The real rate and the nominal rate for the Australian dollar are very similar. This analysis indicates that one would make different decisions in buying October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 6 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 foreign goods and services when using the real exchange rate versus the nominal exchange rate. In addition, if we compare the data in Figure 2 and Figure 5, it is obvious that the PPP exchange rate fluctuates less dramatically than the foreign exchange rate (except the Russian Ruble). In other words, foreign exchange rates affect international trade more than domestic consumption. WAGE FACTOR Most consumers except the unemployed and retirees earn wages to make a living. Employers usually give employees a small wages increase every year to offset inflation. Figure 6 shows the percentage of wage increase in different countries. The wage increase in the US, EU, and India is a few percent less than inflation over eight years while the wages in Canada, Brazil and Australia outpaced inflation by a few percents in the same period. The wage increase in UK, Mexico, South Africa, China and Russia is even faster, double to triple digits gain over inflation is observed in these nations. Japan’s wage is stagnant (or dropping slightly) from 2000 to 2008. It is unclear what exactly causes these differences; one may speculate that it may relate to the fiscal condition and account balance of the nations as well as how the governments want to regulate their economy. For example, commodity producing countries is benefited from the recent purge of commodity prices; China has a large trade surplus; the Japanese prices may have come October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 7 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 down from a very high level from decays ago. It will be interested to see how the fast wage increase in some nations would impact their inflation situation in the future. The difference in wage changes certainly would have an impact to consumer’s purchasing power. If we modify Equation 3 and Equation 5 for calculating relative PPP and real (CPI) exchange rate by a wage factor, the following equations will results: PPPrel CPI tFor / CPI tFor Wt Dom / Wt Dom 1 1 For For CPI tDom / CPI tDom W / W 1 t t 1 e E CPI Dom W Dom CPI For W For (Eq. 6) (Eq. 7) where W denotes wages. Using this modified calculation, both domestic and foreign purchasing power will change. Figure 7 and Figure 8 shows the relative PPP and real exchange rate after adjusting for wage increase. After adjusting for wages, the relative PPP become almost the same for the US, EU, Canada, Japan (until 2007), India and Brazil (after 2006). Australia, UK, South Africa, Mexico become the outperformers, which is not the case without adjusting for wages. China and Russia demonstrate the best improvement in relative PPP because of the large increase of their wages. After adjusting for wages, the buying power of Americans in international markets weakens further relative to most foreign consumers except the Japanese. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the US dollar against the Euro is about 5% less than before adjustment October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 8 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 (using the 2008 figure) because of the wage advantage for Americans. As pointed out earlier, there are pitfalls for direct cross-comparison using the CPI index. Additionally, other factors such as taxation may complicate the purchasing power calculation. For example, American income taxes are less than many industrialized countries while poorer nations probably don’t tax on income as much. Based on the above analysis, the emerging economies have made big progress in enhancing the international purchasing power of their citizens, thanks to increases of international trade, employment and work force productivity. Having said that, the gap of incomes between citizens of developed and developing countries are still quite large as shown in the Table 2. Additionally, the consequences of environmental damages and increased energy consumptions in developing countries due to rapid industrialization may be debatable issues. CONCLUSIONS Exchange rate, prices/inflation and wage level influence the purchasing power of consumers in domestic and international markets. The domestic purchasing power is mainly affected by the inflation rate of individual countries, and it is relatively equitable across mature economies. The international purchasing power is more volatile and is affected by both exchange rate and prices. Wage changes can further compensate or deprive purchasing power of consumers. Analysis of current exchange rates, prices and wages leads to the belief that foreign shoppers can get better bargains in Japan and the October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 9 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 US at the present time. Consumers in emerging economies especially China and Russia have experienced significant improvement in purchasing power recently when compared to themselves. They may catch up with the living standard of rich countries in the future if this growth rate sustains. Finally, it will be interesting to research the fundamental economic forces which influence the gauges that are measured in the article. REFERENCES 1. http://www.worldsalaries.org/ 2. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2006 3. Website of Australian Bureau of Statistics 4. Website of Banco de Mexico 5. Website of Bank of England 6. Website of Central Bank of Brazil 7. Website of European Central bank 8. Website of International Organization of Labor 9. Website of the Labor Department of India 10. Website of the Ministry of Economics and Planning of Saudi Arabia 11. Website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation 12. Website of National Bureau of Statistics of China 13. Website of Statistics Bureau of Japan 14. Website of Statistics Canada October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 10 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 15. Website of Statistics South Africa 16. Website of the United States Labor Department 17. Website of Wikipedia on purchasing power parity and consumer price index October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 11 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 1: Consumer price indexes of representative economies from 2000 to 2008 (source: ref. 3 to16) 650 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 550 United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia 450 350 250 150 50 2000 2001 CPI United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 174.0 93.7 90.8 100.0 2001 176.7 94.7 92.6 107.7 2002 180.9 96.3 94.8 120.2 2003 184.3 97.3 96.6 129.5 2004 190.3 98.7 98.9 137.1 2005 196.8 100.8 101.1 142.8 2006 201.8 103.6 103.1 145.9 2007 210.0 105.7 106.2 150.4 2008 (May) 216.6 NA 108.2 156.0 102.2 101.5 100.6 100.3 100.3 100.0 100.3 100.3 101.7 441.0 100.4 97.0 131.3 93.2 100.0 100.0 98.9 458.0 101.1 97.7 135.4 97.4 121.4 105.7 97.8 477.0 100.3 101.5 139.5 102.9 140.6 115.4 98.0 496.0 101.5 103.6 142.8 107.0 159.8 122.1 98.6 514.0 105.5 105.8 146.5 112.6 177.3 123.8 98.9 536.0 107.4 108.0 150.6 116.3 199.7 128.0 99.6 563.0 109.0 109.8 155.5 121.0 219.0 134.0 101.8 600.0 116.7 112.4 160.1 125.6 238.8 143.5 106.0 636.0 NA 113.9 162.2 128.1 270.9 151.5 115.0 12 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 2: Relative purchasing power parity of representative economies from 2000 to 2008 2.3 2.1 United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia 1.9 Relative PPP 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 2000 2001 Rel. PPP exchange United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2002 2003 2001 1.000 0.995 1.005 1.060 0.978 1.023 0.992 0.992 1.015 1.028 1.195 1.041 0.974 2004 2002 1.000 0.989 1.004 1.156 0.947 1.040 0.961 1.006 1.022 1.061 1.352 1.110 0.953 2005 2003 1.000 0.980 1.005 1.223 0.927 1.062 0.954 1.008 1.027 1.083 1.509 1.153 0.941 13 2006 2004 1.000 0.963 0.996 1.254 0.897 1.066 0.960 0.997 1.020 1.104 1.621 1.132 0.914 2007 2005 1.000 0.951 0.985 1.262 0.865 1.075 0.945 0.984 1.014 1.103 1.766 1.132 0.890 2008 2006 1.000 0.953 0.979 1.258 0.846 1.101 0.936 0.976 1.021 1.119 1.888 1.155 0.888 2007 1.000 0.935 0.969 1.246 0.813 1.127 0.963 0.960 1.010 1.116 1.978 1.189 0.888 2008 1.000 NA 0.958 1.253 0.799 1.158 NA 0.943 0.992 1.104 2.176 1.217 0.934 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 3: PPP exchange rate published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF, ref. 2) 18 National Currency per International Dollar 16 United States United Kingdom Germany Brazil Japan* India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note*: x100 for Japanese currency. Country United States United Kingdom Germany Brazil Japan* India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia 2000 1.000 0.645 0.934 0.867 1.498 8.473 1.828 1.218 1.362 6.195 6.833 2.110 2.678 October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2001 1.000 0.645 0.923 0.909 1.448 8.570 1.822 1.203 1.380 6.411 7.773 2.219 2.526 2002 1.000 0.654 0.919 0.985 1.407 8.630 1.801 1.193 1.393 6.737 8.833 2.413 2.554 2003 1.000 0.662 0.912 1.111 1.364 8.803 1.813 1.207 1.406 7.171 9.870 2.476 2.649 14 2004 1.000 0.663 0.893 1.172 1.310 9.006 1.891 1.215 1.421 7.501 11.507 2.569 2.864 2005 1.000 0.659 0.876 1.211 1.266 9.235 1.917 1.221 1.451 7.696 13.512 2.633 3.250 2006 1.000 0.661 0.866 1.231 1.237 9.593 1.895 1.206 1.460 7.792 15.326 2.707 3.534 2007 1.000 0.669 0.864 1.270 1.233 9.989 1.929 1.211 1.477 7.964 16.692 2.808 3.698 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 4: Changes of nominal exchange rate from 2000 to 2008 190 Percent Change of Nominal Exchange Rate 170 150 130 110 107.08 102.63 100.00 93.32 91.76 83.33 82.05 90 United States British Pound Euro Brazilian Real Japanese Yen Indian Rupee Chinese Yuan Canadian Dollar Australian Dollar Mexico Peso Russian Rouble South African Rand Saudi Arabian Riyal 75.00 70 68.03 58.60 57.87 50 2000 2001 % Change (E) US Dollar Pound Euro Real Yen Rupee Yuan Can $ Aus $ Peso Rouble Rand Riyal October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2002 Dec-00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2003 2004 Dec-01 100.00 102.99 104.63 118.97 114.91 103.10 100.00 106.00 108.89 95.42 107.80 157.89 100.00 Dec-02 100.00 92.54 88.89 182.05 104.39 102.67 100.00 105.33 98.89 108.64 113.12 113.16 100.00 2005 Dec-03 100.00 82.92 73.49 148.21 93.86 97.33 100.00 86.00 73.89 116.96 103.90 86.84 100.00 15 2006 2007 Dec-04 100.00 77.74 68.59 136.41 90.35 92.83 100.00 80.00 71.67 116.02 98.58 75.00 100.00 2008 Dec-05 100.00 86.27 77.81 117.95 103.51 96.26 97.83 78.00 75.56 110.61 102.13 83.55 100.00 Dec-06 100.00 76.54 70.68 109.74 104.39 95.07 95.10 78.00 70.56 112.49 93.26 92.76 100.00 Dec-07 100.00 75.76 63.42 91.28 97.47 83.88 88.16 66.00 63.33 113.63 87.23 90.13 100.00 Jun-08 100.00 75.00 58.60 82.05 93.32 91.76 82.85 68.03 57.87 107.08 83.33 102.63 100.00 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 5: Changes of real (CPI) exchange rate from 2000 to 2008 Percent Change of Real (CPI) Exchange Rate 170 150 130 116.75 110 107.07 100 97.03 91.55 90 84.34 81.07 79.22 72.13 70 65.50 61.20 58.32 United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia 50 38.30 30 2000 % Change (e) United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa Saudi Arabia 2001 2002 Dec-00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2003 Dec-01 100.00 103.48 104.12 112.21 117.50 100.82 100.85 106.87 107.23 92.82 90.18 151.70 102.69 2004 Dec-02 100.00 93.61 88.54 157.46 110.25 98.69 104.08 104.66 96.77 102.35 83.65 101.95 104.92 2005 Dec-03 100.00 84.58 73.13 121.22 101.30 91.66 104.77 85.29 71.96 107.97 68.87 75.33 106.24 16 2006 Dec-04 100.00 80.71 68.85 108.82 100.69 87.11 104.12 80.22 70.25 105.13 60.81 66.26 109.37 2007 Dec-05 100.00 90.71 79.02 93.43 119.65 89.57 103.48 79.24 74.50 100.31 57.84 73.83 112.31 2008 Dec-06 100.00 80.29 72.21 87.22 123.36 86.37 101.62 79.92 69.09 100.53 49.39 80.29 112.67 Dec-07 100.00 81.07 65.43 73.27 119.88 74.42 91.55 68.75 62.70 101.86 44.10 75.82 112.63 Jun-08 100.00 NA 61.20 65.50 116.75 79.22 NA 72.13 58.32 97.03 38.30 84.34 107.07 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 6: Wage increase in different countries from 2000 to 2008 (source: ref. 1, 3 to 14) 670 Percent Wage Increase 570 United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa 470 370 270 170 70 -30 2000 2001 % Wage Increase United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 2003 2001 3.59 3.42 2.67 8.26 -0.96 2.53 16.08 1.42 3.30 12.58 45.75 9.56 2004 2002 4.79 7.24 5.31 15.51 -3.85 5.80 32.57 3.56 6.92 20.10 96.13 21.34 2005 2003 6.84 11.25 7.50 11.63 -3.95 9.67 49.67 4.97 10.87 28.75 147.37 26.13 17 2006 2004 10.60 16.24 9.55 10.50 -4.72 13.79 70.58 7.18 14.22 34.80 203.19 38.02 2007 2005 12.65 20.55 11.59 12.76 -3.75 23.87 95.01 10.63 20.21 42.32 284.84 39.88 2008 2006 16.58 25.54 14.05 18.39 -2.79 29.29 123.47 13.93 25.77 51.40 378.36 52.51 2007 19.66 30.33 16.17 50.68 -3.08 36.88 NA 17.58 30.73 -31.18 511.47 NA 2008 22.91 32.09 NA 57.20 -19.92 41.23 NA 20.44 31.58 NA 666.31 NA 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 7: Relative purchasing power parity from 2000 to 2008 after adjusting for wage increase 1.3 1.2 Rel. PPP adj. for wages 1.1 United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 2000 Rel. PPP adj for wage United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa 2001 2000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2002 2001 1.000 0.997 1.014 1.014 1.023 1.033 0.885 1.013 1.018 0.946 0.850 0.984 2003 2002 1.000 0.966 0.998 1.049 1.032 1.030 0.759 1.018 1.002 0.926 0.723 0.959 2004 2005 2003 1.000 0.941 0.997 1.170 1.031 1.034 0.681 1.026 0.989 0.899 0.652 0.976 18 2006 2004 1.000 0.916 1.002 1.255 1.042 1.036 0.623 1.029 0.988 0.905 0.591 0.907 2007 2005 1.000 0.889 0.989 1.261 1.013 0.977 0.546 1.002 0.950 0.873 0.517 0.911 2008 2006 1.000 0.885 0.993 1.239 1.015 0.993 0.488 0.999 0.947 0.862 0.460 0.883 2007 1.000 0.858 0.988 0.989 1.004 0.985 0.448 0.977 0.925 1.940 0.387 NA 2008 1.000 0.000 NA 0.979 1.227 1.008 NA 0.962 0.927 NA 0.349 NA 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Figure 8: Real exchange rate from 2000 to 2008 after adjusting for wage increase Percent Change in Real Exchange Rate adj. for wages 160.0 148.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 77.4 60.0 61.4 74.4 70.0 66.7 65.1 58.2 57.4 42.6 40.0 United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa 20.0 8.6 0.0 2000 % Change e adj. for Wage United States United Kingdom European Union Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 2001 2000 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2002 2003 2001 100.00 103.64 105.05 107.37 122.90 101.86 89.99 109.16 107.53 85.40 64.09 143.43 2004 2002 100.00 91.47 88.04 142.85 120.15 97.74 82.26 105.89 94.84 89.29 44.69 88.04 2005 2003 100.00 81.22 72.55 116.02 112.67 89.29 74.79 86.81 69.34 89.59 29.74 63.81 19 2006 2004 100.00 76.79 69.29 108.91 116.87 84.67 67.51 82.78 68.02 86.26 22.18 53.09 2007 2005 100.00 84.76 79.38 93.34 140.04 81.46 59.78 80.68 69.82 79.40 16.93 59.46 2006 100.00 74.56 73.27 85.88 147.94 77.87 53.02 81.77 64.05 77.41 12.04 61.37 2007 100.00 74.43 66.73 58.18 148.00 65.06 42.60 69.97 57.39 NA 8.63 NA 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-5-9 Table 1: Market exchange rate from 2000 to 2008 Nominal Exchange Rate (E) US Dollar British Pound Euro Brazilian Real Japanese Yen Indian Rupee Chinese Yuan Canadian Dollar Australian Dollar Mexico Peso Russian Rouble South African Rand Saudi Arabian Riyal Dec-00 1.0 0.7 1.1 2.0 114.0 46.8 8.3 1.5 1.8 9.6 28.2 7.6 3.8 Dec-01 1.0 0.7 1.1 2.3 131.0 48.2 8.3 1.6 2.0 9.2 30.4 12.0 3.8 Dec-02 1.0 0.6 1.0 3.6 119.0 48.0 8.3 1.6 1.8 10.4 31.9 8.6 3.8 Dec-03 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.9 107.0 45.5 8.3 1.3 1.3 11.2 29.3 6.6 3.8 Dec-04 1.0 0.5 0.7 2.7 103.0 43.4 8.3 1.2 1.3 11.2 27.8 5.7 3.8 Dec-05 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.3 118.0 45.0 8.1 1.2 1.4 10.6 28.8 6.4 3.8 Dec-06 1.0 0.5 0.8 2.1 119.0 44.4 7.9 1.2 1.3 10.8 26.3 7.1 3.8 Dec-07 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.8 111.1 39.2 7.3 1.0 1.1 10.9 24.6 6.9 3.8 Jun-08 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.6 106.4 42.9 6.9 1.0 1.0 10.3 23.5 7.8 3.8 2004 647.0 790.5 582.5 79.6 699.8 17.6 37.0 585.5 595.6 89.6 60.6 302.1 2005 659.0 738.6 523.9 93.9 617.0 18.5 43.2 619.9 594.6 99.3 74.3 274.8 2006 682.0 867.0 590.9 106.0 618.0 19.6 50.9 638.4 666.1 103.8 101.1 269.9 2007 700.0 909.4 672.5 162.2 659.9 23.5 63.2 778.6 771.4 2008 719.0 931.0 0.0 188.3 569.4 22.1 0.0 773.8 849.7 138.1 181.2 Table 2: Weekly Wages from 2000 to 2008 Weekly Wage (in US$) United States United Kingdom European Union* Brazil Japan India China Canada Australia Mexico Russia South Africa 2000 585.0 528.6 363.5 98.3 663.6 14.4 21.7 437.0 373.7 77.1 19.7 164.1 2001 606.0 530.9 356.7 89.4 571.9 14.3 25.2 418.2 354.5 91.0 26.6 113.9 2002 613.0 612.6 431.0 62.4 611.2 14.8 28.7 429.7 404.0 85.3 34.2 176.0 2003 625.0 709.3 532.7 74.0 679.1 16.2 32.4 533.4 560.8 84.9 46.9 238.4 Note*: The EU wage is an average of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. October 18-19th, 2008 Florence, Italy 20