NED Seminar, Gothenburg, 1. Nov.
2007
The Danish 2007 Election:
Why the Social Democrats will win?
Or
Why the Social Democrats should win
Or
Why can’t Labour win?
Table 1.Prefer tax relief or improved public
services, 1994-2007. Percentages and PDI
Prefer tax
relief
Prefer
improved
welfare
DK
PDI for
welfare
1994(elec)
47
44
9
-3
1998(elec)
41
54
5
+13
2000
38
53
9
+15
2001(elec)
45
52
4
+6
2003 Jan.
42
53
4
+11
2003 Nov.
34
61
5
+27
2005 (elec)
35
61
4
+26
2006 May
27
70
3
+43
2006 Sep.
26
72
2
+46
2007 Aug.
22
73
5
+51
2007 Oct.
22
73
5
+51
The strategy of giving tax relief before the
election did not work either…
Shortly before the call for the election, the
government decided to lower taxes as from
2008. Should the tax relief be revoked so that
the money could be spent for more welfare, or
should the tax relief be maintained?
Revoked
59
Maintained
37
Don’t know
4
Total
100
Political agenda = welfare
Per cent of answers given.
Most important problem
politicians should handle
1990
2001
2005
2007
Unemployment
29
3
16
1
Economic problems, business
19
4
3
3
9
4
5
8
Environment
10
3
4
7
Welfare
20
55
53
60
Immigration
4
23
13
14
Else
9
10
6
7
Taxes
The Social Democrats win on welfare
competence image - everywhere
Wich government is the best to ensure a wellfunctioning health care system?
Bourgeois
Social dem No diff
1998
23
34
43
2001
45
25
30
2005
38
44
18
2007
29
53
18
”Fogh-regeringen er ved at være
træt og nedslidt ”
Helt eller delvis enig
Neutral/Ved ikke
Helt eller delvis uenig
I alt
50 %
7%
43 %
100 %
VOTERS ARE DARK GREEN:
”We should spend much more money on renewable
energy, even if it is not fully competitive”
Agree
Neutral/Don’t know
Disagree
Total
81 %
9%
10 %
100 %
”Public employees should have considerably higher
wage increases than privately employed”
Agree
55 %
Neutral/don’t know
13 %
Disagree
32 %
Total
100 %
Tight immigration policy is about to become
a negative issue for the government
The government’s tightening of refugee policies …
Is approPriate
33
Not gone
far enough
2001
Has gone
too far
11
2005
27
51
23
2007
38
50
12
56
Everything has gone wrong for
Anders Fogh Rasmussen
•
•
•
•
•
Wrong timing of the election
A tax vs. Welfare election
Contract politics in ruins
Tax stop has become unreliable
The broad alliance incl. Workers which is the
foundation of the government’s majority, is
uncertain due to policy change after the election
• Internal disagreements in the governing coalition
• Relative agreement among th opposition parties
So why doesn’t the Social
Democrats win?
SF has taken many votes from the Social
Democrats.
But there is no improvement for the opposition as
a whole, even though the opinion climate is the
most advantageos ever seen.
Will voters eventually follow their attitudes? – or:
Is it bad political communication?
Is it leadership image?
Or is it …
Which government do you think would
provide most money for yourself?
No diff.
Bourgeois
Diff.
1998
Social
Dem.
31
34
35
-4
2001
22
30
48
-26
2005
20
28
52
-32
2007
20
26
54
-34