Scenarios for Regional Rebalancing
around Brazil: Implications for the
Western Hemisphere & Beyond
Presentation at workshop on
“regional rebalancing”, AAU, DK.
May 29-30, 2012.
Steen Fryba Christensen
Regional rebalancing
• Regional rebalancing is happening and has
gained speed after the international financial
crisis broke out in 2008.
• Strengthening of East-South: Asia/China,
much of the South. Relative weakening of
United States and Europe. Tendency
continues, particularly in parts of Europe.
Brazil’s role and politics in regional
rebalancing and world order change
• 1. Role in the region
• 2. Role in the international system
Brazil’s main aims +
foreign relations tools
• 1. Economic development and strengthening
2. Political Influence
3. Change the global order via “new trade geography”
and coalitions in global politics. Rebalancing
development
• Foreign relations has instrumental role. It follows a
pattern of “variable geometry” – with priorities:
1. Regional integration.
2. South-South coalitions.
3. Bilateral partnerships (parcería): United States,
Argentina, China and others. Economic emphasis.
Regional rebalancing around Brazil
2003 (Lula/PT)
• South America as a stable and prosperous region as a
high priority in 2003 (context of economic crises and
socio-political instability). South American integration.
• “Global Player” ambition – South-South coalitions and
“reciprocity multilateralism” (of results) - IBSA, G20,
bilateral relations with similar countries – China, India,
South Africa.
• The two aspects are initially emphasized in a balanced
way and later with a low priority to the region and a
high priority to the world – global aims.
Regional rebalancing around Brazil:
the regional level - successes
• Economy: South America a platform for Brazil’s
competitive insertion in the global economy.
IIRSA. Mercosur/ Andes trade agreements.
UNASUR. Internationalization of Brazilian
businesses.
• Geo-politics/regional security: Brazil’s sphere of
influence – South America as a pole in a
multipolar order. Council of South American
Defence (2009). Reducing US influence.
Regional rebalancing around Brazil:
the regional level - challenges
• Asymmetrical economic relations between Brazil and
Mercosur/Andes countries. North/South (Argentina as
partial exception).
• Argentina’s breaking of rules, Bolivia’s nationalization of oil
and gas.
• Skepticism about Brazil’s leadership ambition: Perception:
Brazil is pursuing a “hegemonic” strategy in the region
rather than a “leadership strategy”.
• Brazil’s “soft” responses – “firefighter” strategy with aim of
being perceived as focused on common interests .
Regional rebalancing around Brazil:
the regional level - challenges
• Centrifugal tendencies: foreign policies and strategies
of economic insertion. China (Asia) and United States
as alternative poles of attraction. Makes leadership and
regional unity difficult.
• Regional rebalancing is not really centered on Brazil,
although Brazil is important. It has been successful in
institution building and it has become world’s 6th
largest economy. It is typically recognized as a regional
leader of South America, or Latin America by outside
actors
Centrifugal regional tendencies
• 1. The neo-liberal diversification strategy through FTA’s:
Chile, Peru, Colombia: FTA’s with USA and China.
• 2. The statist ressource-nationalist, anti-US and pro
multipolarity strategy. Venezuela – China coop.
• 3. The neo-developmentalist, reformed sub-regionalist
strategy of Argentina. Skeptical of Brazil’s global leadership
ambitions and its tendency to “go it alone”. Partnership +
protecionism and nationalism.
• 4. Brazil’s continental regionalism. Political, security,
infrastructure and energy cooperation.
Regional rebalancing around Brazil:
the international (global) level
• Dilemma: Regional integration and global aims.
• Brazil reduces priority of region.“Sovereign insertion”,
global player priority.
• High priority given to emerging powers: Institutionalization
of BRIC 2007 (2009) (BRICS, 2011): Two aspects:
cooperation (economy) and influence (world order) –
recognition of peers boosts Brazil’s role in world affairs.
• China’s centrality as export market (nr. 1 by 2009), large
influx of Chinese FDI in Brazil from 2010.
Regional rebalancing around Brazil:
the international (global) level
• Change the world: “Reciprocity multilateralism” (of
results) – create equality amongst nations. Deconcentration of power/influence and development.
• 1. From intervention/violence to negotiated solutions
2. More influence to BRICS in international economic
organizations as representatives of developing world –
G20.
3. WTO (G20) – unsuccessful, but significant in
changing dynamics of WTO.
Global rebalancing: Brazilian agenda
• Beyond rebalancing as balancing trade (development
rebalancing – de-concentration).
• Against US-dominated “global plutocracy”. (or simply
joining this order through own rise in the global hierarchy?)
• Changing the global order from the inside – counter-power
coalition - aims.
1) a more balanced global economic order
2) representation of developing country interests
3) greater influence
4) against violence principle and for negotiation and noninterference
Global rebalancing
• Brazil’s strategies contradict hegemonic stability theory and
the idea about a necessary link between foreign policy
strategy and regime type.
• The significance of BRICS for Brazil? Two views:
• 1. Great differences between BRICS, shallow coalition due
to differences and conflicts of interests. (Very temporary
and limited coalition).
• 2. Important. Defends interests of developing countries.
Seeks equality amongst nations – autonomy and
development.
Some questions about the future
• NOW: understanding 2 seems closest to reality.
• However, China has not supported Brazil’s ambitions of a
permanent seat at the UNSC univocally!
• “New International Division of Labour”. China as the “new
North” in economic relations with the South.
Potential for growing tensions and spill-over to politics.
• Will China’s interest in BRICS be maintained as China grows
stronger? Or, is BRICS just a convenient “place to hide” and
“tool to create strength” in the intermediate term?
THANK YOU!
Regional rebalancing
• Regional rebalancing has accelerated with the financial crisis and its
aftermath (2007-)
• Stagnation, crisis, sovereign state debts in the United States and in
Europe. Crisis of core “West” (North-West).
• Rise of Asia, Rise of China, Rise of the Rest. East-South. Emerging markets
shake of the crisis faster than traditionally dominant economies.
• Adjustment to the crisis in East-South varies. “New international division
of labour”. Challenges faced differ substantially between nations.
• Brazil and South America: Re-commodification and dangers of (continued)
de-industrialization.
Regional rebalancing
• Regional rebalancing is happening and has
gained speed after the international financial
crisis broke out in 2008.
• Strengthening of East-South: Asia/China,
much of the South. Relative weakening of
United States and Europe. Tendency
continues, particularly in parts of Europe.